//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CONTINUES. MERCHANT VESSELS HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AT LEAST ONE VESSEL TURNED AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CALIFORNIA ARSON SUSPECT IDENTIFIED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Iran: Overnight several attacks were conducted between Iran and Israel, with Israeli forces continuing their attacks throughout the evening. Separately, the oil refinery on Lavan Island was struck by the UAE, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on their oil fields yesterday.

Middle East: Iranian attacks continued as before, with an observable lull (but not complete halt) to attacks being observed after the ceasefire went into effect. In Kuwait, government officials confirmed that attacks continued, with 28x drones being intercepted by air defense systems. In the UAE, authorities likewise announced the interception of 17x ballistic missiles and 35x drones.

Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Israeli forces ordering the evacuation of areas north of the Litani River. Substantial airstrikes were reported throughout Beirut this afternoon as Israeli forces carry out their largest bombing campaign of the war.

-HomeFront-

California: The suspect in yesterday's arson attack at a warehouse in Ontario has been identified as Chamel Abdulkarim. The suspect was arrested at the scene after livestreaming himself setting fire to multiple pallets of paper products at this warehouse.

Analyst Comment: In the video posted to his social media page under his real name, Abdulkarim stated that the arson was conducted in order to destroy the inventory of the company that was not paying him enough. Abdulkarim was an employee of NFI Industries, a third-party distributor for Kimberly-Clark, who owned the warehouse.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, much confusion remains regarding the exact details of what the ceasefire agreement actually means. A ceasefire is temporary, not a permanent settlement to a conflict, and this ceasefire has a two week suspension time. In 13 days, the war is scheduled to resume if an agreement cannot be reached, according to the statements made by both the United States and Iran. This ceasefire is also conditional on several points (which remain unclear) and the entire agreement depends on further negotiations.

Following the intensification of the conflict in Lebanon, Iran has linked their participation in the ceasefire to the fate of Lebanon (as in, the ceasefire is off if Israeli forces continue their advance in Lebanon). Concerning shipping throughout the Strait, this morning all commercial vessels transiting the Strait have continued to use the Larak Island tollbooth arrangement, and have only transited the waterway with Iranian permission. This afternoon one vessel, the M/T AUROURA attempted to transit the Strait, but turned around upon reaching the chokepoint. The reason for this turnaround is not known, however it is likely that Iranian forces are only allowing traffic through that has prior approval.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.

Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.

Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.

Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS IN IRELAND CONTINUE TO GROW. AMERICAN LOGISTICAL FLIGHTS CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE EAST DURING CEASEFIRE. MARITIME TRAFFIC IN PERSIAN GULF REMAINS STAGNANT.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The ceasefire remains tenuous. Last night Kuwait reported attacks being conducted by several drones. Statements of condemnation were issued by government officials attributing the attacks to Iran, however the Iranians claim that they haven't conducted any attack. Separately, American logistical resupply efforts continue, with a notable increase in military flights moving cargo into the Middle East. Merchant traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, with a total of 12x vessels (including local traffic) transiting the waterway since the ceasefire came into effect two days ago. This afternoon Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, indicated that the timeline for expecting the Strait of Hormuz to be fully opened is roughly two months.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Last night First Lady Melania Trump hosted a surprise press conference, in which she read a statement pertaining to the Jeffrey Epstein network. She confirmed that she had once emailed Ghislaine Maxwell, but denied that a relationship existed. She also called on Congress to act regarding the Epstein investigation, specifically via the testimony of victims against Epstein's network.

California: Early this morning the residence of Sam Altman (the CEO of OpenAI) was targeted by an arsonist who threw a Molotov device at the front gate of his residence. The suspect initially fled on foot but was arrested soon after the incident. The suspect has not yet been identified.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Ireland, protests continue as before nationwide with most major roadways remaining shut down sporadically for a few hours each day due to protests. Whitegate Refinery remains a main focal point for protests which have become substantial in size. However, under the surface of the protests, tensions are bubbling and in Ireland no political issue is ever as simple as it seems at face value. One complicating factor which has contributed to the growing civil unrest has been statements made by Ireland's Deputy Police Commissioner Shawna Coxon, who has been the face of the police response to the demonstrations. Her statements themselves have been fairly standard by European standards, threatening all number of consequences for the protesters if they don't open up roadways.

However, one delicate contention that isn't being conveyed by the media is not necessarily what is being said, but who is saying it. Coxon herself is not Irish...she's Canadian. Having built up a policing career in Toronto under Trudeau's government, she was instrumental in the now infamous crackdown on Canadian truckers years ago, who protested for different reasons but formed similar networks as the Irish are now forming. Now, she's the Deputy Police Commissioner for Operations in Ireland. Considering that a huge part of these protests is now becoming more of an Irish nationalism effort, what seems like a very small detail is actually becoming more important. A Canadian (who does not have an Irish accent) with a degree in mass surveillance wielding power over ethnic Irishmen is not being taken very well. As a result, what started as a small protest about taxes on agricultural diesel is becoming a much more widespread series of issues. Considering that as of this afternoon no progress has been made to address the concerns of demonstrators, this could lead to a much more substantial state of unrest over the next few days.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 14, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE FATALITIES REPORTED AFTER SMALL ARMS ATTACKS IN ATLANTA. TWO CONGRESSMEN RESIGN FROM OFFICE FOLLOWING PERSONAL SCANDALS. CONTAINERSHIP STRUCK IN GULF OF OMAN. SCHOOL SHOOTING REPORTED IN TURKEY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Gulf of Oman: One containership was targeted by Iranian forces this morning. The vessel (which has not yet been identified) was hit by two projectiles, and was assisted by the Pakistani Navy.

Analyst Comment: Based on the graphic of the incident provided by the UKMTO this strike on a commercial vessel is one of the farthest conducted by Iranian forces since the war began, with this vessel being located well within the US Navy's own blockade zone. Otherwise, the subsequent daily report published after this targeting effort also confirmed that the general situation regarding commercial shipping remains the same as before, with traffic not resuming normal levels since the ceasefire began.

Turkey: This morning a school shooting was reported in Sanliurfa, which resulted in 15x people being wounded. One former student began the attack by firing on the crowded school yard at the Ahmet Koyuncu Vocational and Technical Anatolian High School. 10x students, 4x teachers, and 1x police officer were wounded before the assailant took his own life, ending the attack. The motive for the attack is not clear, however local media reports that the attacker was a former student of the school.

-HomeFront-

Georgia: Yesterday a murder spree was reported in DeKalb County, which resulted in multiple fatalities. The first attack took place outside a Checkers on Wesley Chapel Road, in the eastern suburbs of Atlanta. One woman was shot and killed during the attack, which took the form of a drive-by shooting. After the first incident, the suspect maneuvered to the Cherokee Plaza north of Atlanta, where another shooting was conducted. One homeless man was critically wounded at this location. From there, the assailant fled the scene and over a period of several hours maneuvered to a residential area on Battle Forest Drive, to the west of his first murder site. At this attack site, the assailant shot and stabbed a woman while she was walking her dog in her residential neighborhood. The victim at the third location was killed during the attack. After locating the suspect via surveillance footage, the attacker was arrested during a traffic stop. Authorities have identified the suspect as Olaolukitan Adon Abel, and no further details have been provided.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Washington, personnel shakeups and political moves are taking place. Two Congressmen have resigned from office following multiple scandals and potential expulsion votes. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) resigned from Congress following a widening scandal surrounding his affair with a staffer who ended up taking her own life in an exceptionally graphic manner after the affair was discovered. Similarly, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) announced that he will resign as well due to growing calls for his expulsion after a long series of similar affairs and explicit relationships with staffers.

Though neither scandal is related to the other, one detail is common between the two cases...both resignations have taken place for misconduct that occurred some time ago but are only being acted upon right now. Gonzales' affair had been very public for a long time, and the death of his staffer back in September of last year brought the affair to public consciousness. Similarly, Swalwell's misconduct came to light back in 2020, when he was removed from the House Intelligence Committee following the Fang Fang incident which lead to concerns that he was openly in a relationship with a Chinese spy. However, in Swalwell's case, his resignation is not related to the earlier incidents, but rather pertaining to approximately 5x different allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, some of which took place years ago.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 15, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ANOTHER SCHOOL SHOOTING REPORTED IN TURKEY. ATTEMPTED CHILD ABDUCTION HALTED IN NEBRASKA. MAJOR FIRE REPORTED AT AUSTRALIAN REFINERY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Turkey: Following yesterday's mass shooting at a school, another school shooting was reported in the town of Kahramanmaraş. One gunman conducted a small arms attack at Ayser Çalik Middle School this morning, which resulted in an estimated 4x fatalities and 20x others wounded.

Australia: This evening a major fire was reported at the Viva Energy refinery in Geelong, Victoria. Shelter in place orders have been issued for a large portion of the city due to the smoke from the fire, and the facility burned throughout most of the day.

Analyst Comment: The cause of the blaze has not yet been disclosed, however this is one of two refineries in Australia, which is now out of commission at a time when the fuel crisis is becoming a much more substantial problem.

-HomeFront-

Nebraska: An attempted child abduction was reported yesterday afternoon in Omaha. Local authorities responded to reports of a woman with a large kitchen knife at the Walmart on 72st Street, who had taken hostage a 3-year-old child and his guardian inside the store. Upon arriving on scene the suspect had maneuvered with the child to the parking lot, and was engaged by police, halting the attack. The suspect was killed at the scene, and the child was wounded by the attacker during the incident, but is expected to make a full recovery.

Analyst Comment: The assailant has been identified as Noemi Guzman, who has a long history of similar attacks. In 2024, Guzman stabbed her own father and attempted to set him on fire, before departing the scene and breaking into a church armed with a large kitchen knife. During that incident, the Priest had to barricade himself in the Rectory while Guzman attempted to kill him. Guzman was released without bail immediately after that initial incident by Judge Russell Derr before eventually being found not guilty by reason of insanity, and subsequently released.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, the overall situation is confusing at best, which is largely due to the metrics and vocabulary choices used to describe what is going on. As time has gone on, this has become a major problem for understanding what is happening with global trade. For instance, the status of whether or not the Strait is open, is now a grand debate. On the one hand the White House states that the US is working to open the Strait, but on the other hand they are turning ships around who try to transit the waterway.

At lower levels of governance, many American officials are stating that a few dozen ships have 'transited the Strait' since the Iranians created the new Larak Island tollbooth arrangement. However, this phrasing is misleading even though it is technically true. On any given day *local* traffic does transit the Strait, as it always has. Small fishing boats, dhows moving cargo from one Iranian port to another, or other smaller ships carrying cargo within the Middle East have always been allowed by the Iranians even before the ceasefire came into effect.

This is how numbers get inflated (or deflated) regarding this conflict...nobody is using the same terminology and many decision-makers are talking past each other without using the same metrics. Now that the US Navy is enforcing their own blockade, another metric arrives for everyone to track, namely how many non-Iranian vessels are transiting the region, and whether or not they have cargo on board. Some empty vessels have been allowed in by the Americans, other empty vessels have been halted by either the Americans or Iranians, and some have been approved by the Iranians, only to get turned around by the Americans.

As if this wasn't complicated and confusing enough another factor comes into play. A huge number of large cargo/tanker ships that have crossed the Strait since the war began...are actually sanctioned vessels that are part of the global "Dark Fleet" of vessels conducting shady activity around the world. Counting these vessels as transiting the Strait and counting this as evidence of cargo shipments returning to normal is misleading, because it's akin to a drug dealer obeying traffic laws, and using that as an example of success...*of course* the ships operating under the table are going to assume more risk and pay the Iranian toll, because they're already riding dirty and they aren't insured by companies in the western world (nor are they usually bound for western ports). Other than the insurance complications, some ships are spoofing their location, or otherwise are pretending to be other ships, so it's a hard situation to monitor and each and every hull is having to be scrutinized on a case by case basis.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z April 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD. PRESIDENT TRUMP VOICES SUPPORT FOR SECTION 702 RENEWAL. PROTESTS ERUPT IN U.K. FOLLOWING HIGH-PROFILE ASSAULT IN EPSOM. FORMER VIRGINIA LT. GOV. MURDERS HIS WIFE AND HIMSELF IN ANNANDALE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Lebanon: The war continues as before, with new evacuation orders being posted by the Israelis overnight. While clearance operations continue to expand south of the Litani, the new evacuation areas have expanded northward to the Zahran River.

Analyst Comment: The IDF has not yet made it to the Litani from the south, but the "evacuation areas" north of the Litani are probably the advance notice of a widening of the bombing campaign. So far, most airstrikes have been centered either in downtown Beirut, as well as the area of southern Lebanon between the Litani and the Zahran. Now that the IDF has conveyed intent to conduct operations north of the Zahran, it is likely that the conflict will continue to expand. Right now, roughly one third of the land mass of Lebanon is currently in a state of open warfare, or subjected to Israeli targeting efforts.

Middle East: The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains contradictory. CENTCOM stated that absolutely zero vessels have been allowed to transit the chokepoint since the blockade went into effect. However, third-party maritime companies have confirmed via satellite imagery the transit of several sanctioned vessels into the Persian Gulf, through the American blockade.

Analyst Comment: These vessels transited with their AIS transponders turned off, so there's no GPS track to verify which route they took into the Gulf. Separately, Iran continues to onload crude oil to tanker vessels that are currently berthed at Kharg Island.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - In a post on Truth Social, President Trump voiced his support for the renewal of FISA Section 702, calling for an extension of this intelligence operation. In the post, President Trump stated that "I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our great Military and Country!".

Virginia: Overnight former Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and his wife were found deceased inside their home in Annandale. Local authorities state that Justin murdered his wife before taking his own life. Their two children were inside the home during the incident, and subsequently alerted authorities.

Analyst Comment: Concerning motive for the murder, they were going through a divorce at the time and the court proceedings began on Tuesday morning, one day before the incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the United Kingdom, tensions are boiling once again. A state of unrest was reported in Epsom yesterday evening, which originated from a high-profile assault case taking place near the town square. Last weekend, one woman was raped by four males on the street outside a church on Ashley Road. Yesterday, this incident came to light among the general population, and as a result most of the ethnically British men in the town took to the streets in outrage.

As with all crimes in the United Kingdom, a lot of speculation is required to fill in the gaps due to authorities almost never conveying the truth of what happened. In nearly all cases, this speculation of what actually happened turns out to be true. In this case, the police have refused to name the criminals, and rolled out in force against the protesters. Colloquially, in the U.K. this usually means that this was a migrant crime, even if no official statement is ever made confirming this. Sending in riot police is good enough confirmation for the crowd to know that they were right, and also to escalate tensions. At this point the exact technical details of the suspects don't matter too much, as many British locals have simply reached their limit for how much horrific crime they will accept in their communities.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".

Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.

United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.

Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.

As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before.

However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! Though the ceasefire in the Middle East has mostly been holding for now, this week all eyes have been on the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States and Iran struggle to come to any sort of agreement. https://youtu.be/NnPjish5S8s

//The Wire//2300Z April 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship.

United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing".

Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed.

Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at Teotihuacán, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident.

-HomeFront-

Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident.

North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 20% of the global petroleum supply is offline, and has been unavailable since this war began. 40% of the world's petrochemical supply is similarly impacted for the same reasons. The IEA states that the continent of Europe has about 5 weeks of aviation fuel left (at current consumption rates) because roughly 75% of all of the jet fuel in Europe comes from regions of the Middle East that are now cut off. Regardless of rhetoric on social media intended to calm markets, sooner or later the lack of a physical product being delivered out of the region is going to have real-world impacts that are impossible to ignore.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 21, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PETROLEUM REFINERIES AROUND THE WORLD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC FIRES. US FORCES BOARD TANKER VESSEL TIED TO IRAN IN EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. IEDS DISCOVERED BY HOMEOWNER IN COLORADO.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding of the M/T *TIFANI* in the eastern Bay of Bengal. US forces onboard the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* Expeditionary Sea Base conducted the boarding operation, with the status of the vessel remaining unknown.

Analyst Comment: CENTCOM did not explicitly state whether or not the vessel was actually seized, however the vessel was observed changing course to the south after the Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) interdiction operation was conducted.

-HomeFront-

Colorado: Yesterday the Boulder County Sheriff's Office released details of an explosive device that was discovered in a wooded area near Ponderosa Way, in a residential area of Boulder County. A local resident found a cache of 5x pipe bombs stored in a watertight case in a wooded area of this residential dirt road. The Boulder County Regional Bomb Squad deployed to the scene and a shelter-in-place order was issued while the explosive devices were removed.

Analyst Comment: It's not clear how long the cache of IEDs had been in place, as the homeowner who found the waterproof case had just closed on their home in the area, and only moved in on Sunday. The case was found after the individual had begun walking their dog through their new community, so the cache could have been in place for some time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Around the world, a series of fires has broken out at various petroleum refineries and natural gas processing facilities. Yesterday a major fire broke out at the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery in India, one day before Prime Minister Modi himself was scheduled to attend the ribbon cutting to formally open the 9 billion dollar refinery complex. On the same day, oil transportation vessels were set on fire in Myanmar (Burma), after an explosion caused a fire to spread rapidly to many small oil transportation barges that were anchored in the Chindwin River near the remote town of Homalin. Local reports state that 10x vessels were impacted or destroyed by the fire.

In Russia, Ukrainian forces have sharply increased attacks on Russian oil and and gas infrastructure, with roughly 12x separate refineries being hit by approximately 17x long-range Ukrainian drone attacks over the past few weeks. Some sources claim that roughly 40% of Russia's petroleum refinement capacity has been taken offline or negatively impacted since March, due to these attacks.

All of these incidents follow the previous refinery fires in Australia and in the United States, with the Viva Energy refinery and the Port Arthur Valero refinery respectively experiencing major fires that shut down operations for some time. Even China has not escaped unscathed, with a major fire being reported at a major chemical factory in the Jinan Industrial Zone two weeks ago.

Though it is hard to attribute all of these mysterious infrastructure incidents to one clear origin, major fires affecting extremely large oil and petrochemical refineries at a time when a huge percentage of the global oil supply is offline is extremely poor timing (at best) or extremely suspicious (at worst). Fires at refineries are decently common, and happen in the third world even more often. However with increased focus on the international fuel crisis, these impacts to operations could not come at a worse time. Regardless of malign action or pure accident, the result is the same: Petroleum products becoming even more scarce and prices climbing higher as the end of the ceasefire looms and another potential week of market volatility remains on the horizon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized.

Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south.

-HomeFront-

Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided.

Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week.

Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress.

Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war.

On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA INTERCEPTS IRANIAN TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN. CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON EXTENDED. US SECRETARY OF THE NAVY DEPARTS POSITION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will be extended for another three weeks, while the diplomatic efforts with the Iranians continue.

Persian Gulf: Following the Iranian targeting/boarding operations yesterday, nobody has attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. American efforts to conduct resupply and rearming operations throughout the region continue, as the Strait remains closed and no timeline for peace talks being conveyed by either side.

Analyst Comment: Major shipping giants are planning for the Strait to be closed for some time. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, stated that the Strait remains "firmly closed" due to the war. Which, although fairly obvious at this point, has been a very important realization for a major shipping company to acknowledge as the global economy begins settling in for the long haul.

Indian Ocean: Overnight the Pentagon announced the maritime interdiction of the M/T *MAJESTIC X* off the coast of Sri Lanka, continuing the interception of Iranian-linked vessels exporting oil during the ceasefire. This vessel had been on the sanctions list for a many years, and was classified as a stateless vessel as she was using a falsified registration.

-HomeFront-

Louisiana: This afternoon a shooting was reported at the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge. Local authorities state that the initial investigation indicates this was a case of mutual combat between two groups, which engaged in a small arms skirmish in the food court after an argument. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, and as of this report a total of 3x shooters remain at large following the engagement.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Washington, last night Secretary of the Navy John Phelan departed his position, effective immediately. His deputy, Hung Cao, has stepped in to the role while a replacement is in the works. The reason for his departure has not been confirmed by official sources yet, and officially it is not clear as to if he resigned or was fired. Media speculation and "off the record" conversations among the press pool at the Pentagon has largely theorized that he was fired due to personality clashes with SECWAR Hegseth. Whatever the true reason for this departure, the head of the Navy leaving his position with no turnover or transition process at a time when the US Navy is engaged in a kinetic war, is not a sign indicative of stability at the upper echelons of command. Especially considering the military head of the Army, Gen. George, was also fired from his job as Army Chief of Staff and forced to retire two weeks ago.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BUILDUP OF AMERICAN FORCES IN MIDDLE EAST REACHES RECORD LEVELS. KUWAITI BORDER CHECKPOINTS HIT BY FPV DRONES. ARREST MADE REGARDING MOLOTOV ATTACK IN LOUISIANA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Overnight Kuwaiti forces reported two FPV drone strikes on border crossing checkpoints with Iraq. No casualties were reported as a result of the attack.

Analyst Comment: The statement provided by the Kuwaiti Army did not specifically disclose which border crossings were targeted, however there are only two crossing points in total: one main crossing on the northern border, and a smaller outpost on the western border. The interesting detail in the notice is the disclosure that these attacks were conducted by fiber-optically-guided FPV drones, and both of these sites were too far away from each other for these attacks to have been conducted by the same team.

-HomeFront-

Louisiana: This morning one individual was arrested following the firebombing of a Tesla Service Center two weeks ago. John Michael Hinkhouse was arrested for throwing a Molotov device at the entrance to the facility, which resulted in fire damaging the front of the building. Hinkhouse was located after security cameras tracked him back to his residence after the attack.

Washington D.C. - Two incidents involving city busses have taken place over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, a bus caught fire in the 9th Street Tunnel, resulting in the tunnel being shut down for many hours. The cause of the fire remains unknown. This morning, two city busses collided with each other head-on in the Pentagon's south parking lot, resulting in a total of 23x people being injured.

Analyst Comment: Currently there are no indications that either incident was nefarious in any way, however it's worth paying attention to during periods of heightened terrorism risk, just in case other incidents pop up later.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Concerning strategic movement in the Middle East, American cargo flights continue unabated, along with the forward deployment of even more fighter aircraft. Last night another squadron of F/A-18's arrived at Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS *MIGUEL KIETH* (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having transited the Strait of Malacca and should be arriving on station soon (though it is not clear as to if she is expected to take part in this operation).

This brings a total of 3x aircraft carriers, 2x Expeditionary Sea Bases, and 1x amphibious assault ship (a total of 6 "flat tops") for whatever operations are planned. Of note, CENTCOM has provided press materials that imply that the *BUSH* is not replacing the *LINCOLN* or the damaged *FORD* but will serve independently as a third strike group throughout the region. This buildup has become even more substantial than the 4+ months of lead-up to this war breaking out, with even more naval assets being transferred from the Pacific to supplement the forces already in theater. As a reminder, at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne is still in the region. Considering all of these developments, the grand question remains: Does the US plan to reignite the war? This remains an unknown, and it's impossible to know what secret decisions have been made at the upper echelons of government. What is certain, is that a large-scale rearmament and resupply operation has been ongoing since the ceasefire went into effect, and enough resources are on station to conduct large scale operations if that is the chosen course of action. Not only is the war not over, but there are now vastly more resources in theater right now, than at the start of the conflict.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's Intel Update is out! Another week of ceasefire in the Middle East...which all sides are taking advantage of to rearm and resupply. All the while, the Shadow War rages here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/4kMAQyX6WqY