//The Wire//2300Z April 15, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ANOTHER SCHOOL SHOOTING REPORTED IN TURKEY. ATTEMPTED CHILD ABDUCTION HALTED IN NEBRASKA. MAJOR FIRE REPORTED AT AUSTRALIAN REFINERY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Turkey: Following yesterday's mass shooting at a school, another school shooting was reported in the town of KahramanmaraΕ. One gunman conducted a small arms attack at Ayser Γalik Middle School this morning, which resulted in an estimated 4x fatalities and 20x others wounded.
Australia: This evening a major fire was reported at the Viva Energy refinery in Geelong, Victoria. Shelter in place orders have been issued for a large portion of the city due to the smoke from the fire, and the facility burned throughout most of the day.
Analyst Comment: The cause of the blaze has not yet been disclosed, however this is one of two refineries in Australia, which is now out of commission at a time when the fuel crisis is becoming a much more substantial problem.
-HomeFront-
Nebraska: An attempted child abduction was reported yesterday afternoon in Omaha. Local authorities responded to reports of a woman with a large kitchen knife at the Walmart on 72st Street, who had taken hostage a 3-year-old child and his guardian inside the store. Upon arriving on scene the suspect had maneuvered with the child to the parking lot, and was engaged by police, halting the attack. The suspect was killed at the scene, and the child was wounded by the attacker during the incident, but is expected to make a full recovery.
Analyst Comment: The assailant has been identified as Noemi Guzman, who has a long history of similar attacks. In 2024, Guzman stabbed her own father and attempted to set him on fire, before departing the scene and breaking into a church armed with a large kitchen knife. During that incident, the Priest had to barricade himself in the Rectory while Guzman attempted to kill him. Guzman was released without bail immediately after that initial incident by Judge Russell Derr before eventually being found not guilty by reason of insanity, and subsequently released.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, the overall situation is confusing at best, which is largely due to the metrics and vocabulary choices used to describe what is going on. As time has gone on, this has become a major problem for understanding what is happening with global trade. For instance, the status of whether or not the Strait is open, is now a grand debate. On the one hand the White House states that the US is working to open the Strait, but on the other hand they are turning ships around who try to transit the waterway.
At lower levels of governance, many American officials are stating that a few dozen ships have 'transited the Strait' since the Iranians created the new Larak Island tollbooth arrangement. However, this phrasing is misleading even though it is technically true. On any given day *local* traffic does transit the Strait, as it always has. Small fishing boats, dhows moving cargo from one Iranian port to another, or other smaller ships carrying cargo within the Middle East have always been allowed by the Iranians even before the ceasefire came into effect.
This is how numbers get inflated (or deflated) regarding this conflict...nobody is using the same terminology and many decision-makers are talking past each other without using the same metrics. Now that the US Navy is enforcing their own blockade, another metric arrives for everyone to track, namely how many non-Iranian vessels are transiting the region, and whether or not they have cargo on board. Some empty vessels have been allowed in by the Americans, other empty vessels have been halted by either the Americans or Iranians, and some have been approved by the Iranians, only to get turned around by the Americans.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ANOTHER SCHOOL SHOOTING REPORTED IN TURKEY. ATTEMPTED CHILD ABDUCTION HALTED IN NEBRASKA. MAJOR FIRE REPORTED AT AUSTRALIAN REFINERY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Turkey: Following yesterday's mass shooting at a school, another school shooting was reported in the town of KahramanmaraΕ. One gunman conducted a small arms attack at Ayser Γalik Middle School this morning, which resulted in an estimated 4x fatalities and 20x others wounded.
Australia: This evening a major fire was reported at the Viva Energy refinery in Geelong, Victoria. Shelter in place orders have been issued for a large portion of the city due to the smoke from the fire, and the facility burned throughout most of the day.
Analyst Comment: The cause of the blaze has not yet been disclosed, however this is one of two refineries in Australia, which is now out of commission at a time when the fuel crisis is becoming a much more substantial problem.
-HomeFront-
Nebraska: An attempted child abduction was reported yesterday afternoon in Omaha. Local authorities responded to reports of a woman with a large kitchen knife at the Walmart on 72st Street, who had taken hostage a 3-year-old child and his guardian inside the store. Upon arriving on scene the suspect had maneuvered with the child to the parking lot, and was engaged by police, halting the attack. The suspect was killed at the scene, and the child was wounded by the attacker during the incident, but is expected to make a full recovery.
Analyst Comment: The assailant has been identified as Noemi Guzman, who has a long history of similar attacks. In 2024, Guzman stabbed her own father and attempted to set him on fire, before departing the scene and breaking into a church armed with a large kitchen knife. During that incident, the Priest had to barricade himself in the Rectory while Guzman attempted to kill him. Guzman was released without bail immediately after that initial incident by Judge Russell Derr before eventually being found not guilty by reason of insanity, and subsequently released.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, the overall situation is confusing at best, which is largely due to the metrics and vocabulary choices used to describe what is going on. As time has gone on, this has become a major problem for understanding what is happening with global trade. For instance, the status of whether or not the Strait is open, is now a grand debate. On the one hand the White House states that the US is working to open the Strait, but on the other hand they are turning ships around who try to transit the waterway.
At lower levels of governance, many American officials are stating that a few dozen ships have 'transited the Strait' since the Iranians created the new Larak Island tollbooth arrangement. However, this phrasing is misleading even though it is technically true. On any given day *local* traffic does transit the Strait, as it always has. Small fishing boats, dhows moving cargo from one Iranian port to another, or other smaller ships carrying cargo within the Middle East have always been allowed by the Iranians even before the ceasefire came into effect.
This is how numbers get inflated (or deflated) regarding this conflict...nobody is using the same terminology and many decision-makers are talking past each other without using the same metrics. Now that the US Navy is enforcing their own blockade, another metric arrives for everyone to track, namely how many non-Iranian vessels are transiting the region, and whether or not they have cargo on board. Some empty vessels have been allowed in by the Americans, other empty vessels have been halted by either the Americans or Iranians, and some have been approved by the Iranians, only to get turned around by the Americans.
π«‘63π22β€14π2π€¨2π₯1
As if this wasn't complicated and confusing enough another factor comes into play. A huge number of large cargo/tanker ships that have crossed the Strait since the war began...are actually sanctioned vessels that are part of the global "Dark Fleet" of vessels conducting shady activity around the world. Counting these vessels as transiting the Strait and counting this as evidence of cargo shipments returning to normal is misleading, because it's akin to a drug dealer obeying traffic laws, and using that as an example of success...*of course* the ships operating under the table are going to assume more risk and pay the Iranian toll, because they're already riding dirty and they aren't insured by companies in the western world (nor are they usually bound for western ports). Other than the insurance complications, some ships are spoofing their location, or otherwise are pretending to be other ships, so it's a hard situation to monitor and each and every hull is having to be scrutinized on a case by case basis.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘77π24β€5π3β‘2π₯1π€1π»1
//The Wire//1900Z April 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD. PRESIDENT TRUMP VOICES SUPPORT FOR SECTION 702 RENEWAL. PROTESTS ERUPT IN U.K. FOLLOWING HIGH-PROFILE ASSAULT IN EPSOM. FORMER VIRGINIA LT. GOV. MURDERS HIS WIFE AND HIMSELF IN ANNANDALE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with new evacuation orders being posted by the Israelis overnight. While clearance operations continue to expand south of the Litani, the new evacuation areas have expanded northward to the Zahran River.
Analyst Comment: The IDF has not yet made it to the Litani from the south, but the "evacuation areas" north of the Litani are probably the advance notice of a widening of the bombing campaign. So far, most airstrikes have been centered either in downtown Beirut, as well as the area of southern Lebanon between the Litani and the Zahran. Now that the IDF has conveyed intent to conduct operations north of the Zahran, it is likely that the conflict will continue to expand. Right now, roughly one third of the land mass of Lebanon is currently in a state of open warfare, or subjected to Israeli targeting efforts.
Middle East: The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains contradictory. CENTCOM stated that absolutely zero vessels have been allowed to transit the chokepoint since the blockade went into effect. However, third-party maritime companies have confirmed via satellite imagery the transit of several sanctioned vessels into the Persian Gulf, through the American blockade.
Analyst Comment: These vessels transited with their AIS transponders turned off, so there's no GPS track to verify which route they took into the Gulf. Separately, Iran continues to onload crude oil to tanker vessels that are currently berthed at Kharg Island.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - In a post on Truth Social, President Trump voiced his support for the renewal of FISA Section 702, calling for an extension of this intelligence operation. In the post, President Trump stated that "I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our great Military and Country!".
Virginia: Overnight former Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and his wife were found deceased inside their home in Annandale. Local authorities state that Justin murdered his wife before taking his own life. Their two children were inside the home during the incident, and subsequently alerted authorities.
Analyst Comment: Concerning motive for the murder, they were going through a divorce at the time and the court proceedings began on Tuesday morning, one day before the incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the United Kingdom, tensions are boiling once again. A state of unrest was reported in Epsom yesterday evening, which originated from a high-profile assault case taking place near the town square. Last weekend, one woman was raped by four males on the street outside a church on Ashley Road. Yesterday, this incident came to light among the general population, and as a result most of the ethnically British men in the town took to the streets in outrage.
As with all crimes in the United Kingdom, a lot of speculation is required to fill in the gaps due to authorities almost never conveying the truth of what happened. In nearly all cases, this speculation of what actually happened turns out to be true. In this case, the police have refused to name the criminals, and rolled out in force against the protesters. Colloquially, in the U.K. this usually means that this was a migrant crime, even if no official statement is ever made confirming this. Sending in riot police is good enough confirmation for the crowd to know that they were right, and also to escalate tensions. At this point the exact technical details of the suspects don't matter too much, as many British locals have simply reached their limit for how much horrific crime they will accept in their communities.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD. PRESIDENT TRUMP VOICES SUPPORT FOR SECTION 702 RENEWAL. PROTESTS ERUPT IN U.K. FOLLOWING HIGH-PROFILE ASSAULT IN EPSOM. FORMER VIRGINIA LT. GOV. MURDERS HIS WIFE AND HIMSELF IN ANNANDALE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with new evacuation orders being posted by the Israelis overnight. While clearance operations continue to expand south of the Litani, the new evacuation areas have expanded northward to the Zahran River.
Analyst Comment: The IDF has not yet made it to the Litani from the south, but the "evacuation areas" north of the Litani are probably the advance notice of a widening of the bombing campaign. So far, most airstrikes have been centered either in downtown Beirut, as well as the area of southern Lebanon between the Litani and the Zahran. Now that the IDF has conveyed intent to conduct operations north of the Zahran, it is likely that the conflict will continue to expand. Right now, roughly one third of the land mass of Lebanon is currently in a state of open warfare, or subjected to Israeli targeting efforts.
Middle East: The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains contradictory. CENTCOM stated that absolutely zero vessels have been allowed to transit the chokepoint since the blockade went into effect. However, third-party maritime companies have confirmed via satellite imagery the transit of several sanctioned vessels into the Persian Gulf, through the American blockade.
Analyst Comment: These vessels transited with their AIS transponders turned off, so there's no GPS track to verify which route they took into the Gulf. Separately, Iran continues to onload crude oil to tanker vessels that are currently berthed at Kharg Island.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - In a post on Truth Social, President Trump voiced his support for the renewal of FISA Section 702, calling for an extension of this intelligence operation. In the post, President Trump stated that "I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our great Military and Country!".
Virginia: Overnight former Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and his wife were found deceased inside their home in Annandale. Local authorities state that Justin murdered his wife before taking his own life. Their two children were inside the home during the incident, and subsequently alerted authorities.
Analyst Comment: Concerning motive for the murder, they were going through a divorce at the time and the court proceedings began on Tuesday morning, one day before the incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the United Kingdom, tensions are boiling once again. A state of unrest was reported in Epsom yesterday evening, which originated from a high-profile assault case taking place near the town square. Last weekend, one woman was raped by four males on the street outside a church on Ashley Road. Yesterday, this incident came to light among the general population, and as a result most of the ethnically British men in the town took to the streets in outrage.
As with all crimes in the United Kingdom, a lot of speculation is required to fill in the gaps due to authorities almost never conveying the truth of what happened. In nearly all cases, this speculation of what actually happened turns out to be true. In this case, the police have refused to name the criminals, and rolled out in force against the protesters. Colloquially, in the U.K. this usually means that this was a migrant crime, even if no official statement is ever made confirming this. Sending in riot police is good enough confirmation for the crowd to know that they were right, and also to escalate tensions. At this point the exact technical details of the suspects don't matter too much, as many British locals have simply reached their limit for how much horrific crime they will accept in their communities.
π«‘95π31β€6π5π€·ββ4π₯3π€¬3π€¨3β‘2
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘59π19β‘2β€2π2
//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".
Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.
United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.
Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIANS CONDITIONALLY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, SURGE OF SHIPS ATTEMPT TO DEPART THE PERSIAN GULF. CRIME WAVE STRIKES WASHINGTON DC. TERROR ATTACK SCARE STRIKES LONDON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant diplomatic events have transpired throughout the day. In Lebanon, the Israelis have allegedly agreed to a ceasefire (and possibly a halt to the forward movement of their ground invasion). This is contingent on events in Iran, which allegedly announced the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz while the ceasefire is in effect. This re-opening is conditional, with the terms being no military vessels will be allowed, ships must coordinate with the Iranians, use the new Larak Island route instead of the traditional corridor, and ship's cargo must not be "linked to belligerent states".
Analyst Comment: If these are truthfully the terms that will be enforced, this is no change to the preexisting situation, as all of these terms have already been in place. Statements by President Trump differ somewhat from what the Iranians have stated publicly, with the United States announcing that the Strait is fully open, free and clear....only on the Iranian side. Per the White House and CENTCOM, the American blockade will continue.
United Kingdom: This morning a significant police presence was observed in Kensington Gardens in conjunction with an ongoing investigation of a security incident. Overnight, a video was posted online by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) in which this group claimed to have carried out a drone attack on the Israeli embassy. In the video, the assailants claimed to have infiltrated the park, and launched drones carrying radioactive material toward the embassy. Police state that some "discarded items" were recovered from the park, but authorities have not disclosed if anything harmful was found.
Analyst Comment: Right now this looks to be a hoax based on statements made by authorities, who have stated that no attack was actually conducted. A cheap drone and a Tyvek suit is a very low-cost way to tie up a lot of resources and waste a lot of time, so these types of scares and incidents are extremely common during periods of heightened concern for terrorism. This group was also completely unheard of until after the war in Iran began, and it's allegedly the same group responsible for the ambulance arson attack in Golder's Green a few weeks ago.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Due to an increase of crime throughout the city, Mayor Bowser has recommenced juvenile curfew procedures within certain districts of the city. Last night a shooting was reported in a traditionally high-crime area near the Navy Yard, which resulted in a brief manhunt for the suspect (who remains at large).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the Iranians have allegedly opened up their side of the Strait of Hormuz more than it has over the past few weeks, the situation in the Middle East remains complicated. This afternoon, a substantial number of vessels were observed attempting to make a break for it while they still can, with several cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait. However, several of these ships were turned around by the Iranians, so it will probably take overnight before we can see how this all works out.
π«‘65π26β€8β‘4π₯2π2
As things stand right now, the rhetoric of all parties is not exactly matching the ground-truth of what is going on in the Strait, so we have to make an educated guess as to what is happening with regards to global trade. Right now, it looks like the US traded a ceasefire in Lebanon for opening the Strait for third-party nations to escape the Persian Gulf. Ships that are stuck in the Gulf can't make money elsewhere, and this agreement might be a more temporary "hostage release" situation to get these ships out of the region. The US will still enforce a blockade to Iranian ports, and the Iranians will prevent the US from sending warships into the Gulf. The minefield in the main shipping channel is still in place, and everything else remains the same as before.
However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
However, keeping a wider perspective at a very tense time might also be beneficial. It is also plausible that the American blockade is not entirely a serious endeavor, but rather an indication that we're not out of the woods just yet. Right now, via the implementation of the blockade, the US Navy is continuing to stage a lot of ships much closer to Iran than they have been observed so far during this war. Overnight, the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* was observed transiting the Singapore Strait, heading west toward Iran. This is an Expeditionary Sea Base, a relatively newer class of ships who's sole purpose is to serve as a seaborne platform for Special Operations. Over the past two months, very interesting resources and platforms have been staging at Diego Garcia as well, with a notable increase in aircraft being staged at this base since the ceasefire went into effect.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘80π31β€5π4π₯3β‘2
This week's intel update is out! Though the ceasefire in the Middle East has mostly been holding for now, this week all eyes have been on the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States and Iran struggle to come to any sort of agreement. https://youtu.be/NnPjish5S8s
YouTube
Intel Update - April 18 - It's Not Over Yet
S2 Underground Nexus (Submit Tips Here): https://nexus-s2underground.hub.arcgis.com/
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b0β¦
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b0β¦
π«‘52π27π4π»3β€2β‘2π₯1π1π1
//The Wire//2300Z April 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship.
United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing".
Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed.
Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at TeotihuacΓ‘n, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident.
North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY BEGINS TARGETING MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VIOLENT CRIME CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN UNITED KINGDOM.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation deteriorated over the weekend, after President Trump stated that the American blockade would stay in place even after the Iranians removed theirs. In response to this, Iran closed the Strait again, and kinetically targeted two Indian vessels that were in the Strait, attempting to cross it. Yesterday, the United States kinetically struck an Iranian merchant vessel which was attempting to run the American blockade. The M/V *TOUSKA* was fired upon by the USS Spruance (DDG-111), which engaged the vessel with their deck gun, targeting the engine room. After the shelling, U.S. Marines from the 31st MEU boarded and seized control of the ship.
United Kingdom: Protests in Epsom continue to grow despite developments in the case. Epsom police have stated they "have not found any evidence of the offence as reported but the investigation is ongoing".
Analyst Comment: Some claims are being made that the crime never took place, or otherwise did not occur as initially described. Nevertheless, this doesn't seem to matter much as most of the population does not believe the authorities' story, and there has not been a clear conveying of the series of events. As a result, protests have continued throughout the area over the past few days, mostly focusing on police accountability and transparency on the crimes that are committed.
Mexico: This afternoon a shooting was reported at TeotihuacΓ‘n, as a man climbed one of the pyramids and began shooting at crowds of tourists. As of this report, the number of causalities has varied, with local media reporting a total of a dozen people wounded by the shooter or otherwise injured during the incident. At least one Canadian tourist was killed by the shooter, who eventually took his own life, ending the incident.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Over the weekend a mass shooting was reported after a domestic disturbance resulted in a man murdering his entire family. Local authorities state that Shamar Elkins targeted his ex-girlfriend at their residence on Harrison Street following a domestic argument. After killing her, he drove W 79th Street, where he murdered his ex's sister, and eight children, seven of which were his own. After the mass-murder, Elkins fled the scene on foot, before carjacking a vehicle and fleeing to the north. A high-speed chase ensued and the suspect eventually crashed in a residential neighborhood in Bossier City. At this location the suspect was shot by police, ending the incident.
North Carolina: This morning a shooting was reported in Leinbach Park, near Jefferson Middle School in Winston-Salem. Multiple individuals were wounded during the engagement, which resulted from a planned fight which devolved into a small arms skirmish. 2x fatalities have been reported, along with several others wounded.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Statements made by President Trump over the weekend indicate that the Gulf War will probably resume once the ceasefire concludes on Wednesday evening. Major American military logistical flights have continued to intensify into the Middle East over the past few days, and as it stands the United States has not exactly been amenable to another extension of the ceasefire.. Due to the recent developments in the Strait, merchant traffic is not going to resume normalcy anytime soon, with not one, but two navies now targeting merchant shipping for running their respective blockades. The brief rhetoric a few days ago indicating the Strait opening up was only a fleeting moment, and now that peace is looking less likely, the long-term effects are going to start stacking up.
π«‘70π22β€10π€¬4π₯2π2π1π1π€¨1
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 20% of the global petroleum supply is offline, and has been unavailable since this war began. 40% of the world's petrochemical supply is similarly impacted for the same reasons. The IEA states that the continent of Europe has about 5 weeks of aviation fuel left (at current consumption rates) because roughly 75% of all of the jet fuel in Europe comes from regions of the Middle East that are now cut off. Regardless of rhetoric on social media intended to calm markets, sooner or later the lack of a physical product being delivered out of the region is going to have real-world impacts that are impossible to ignore.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘83π26π5β€3π₯2π€¬2π1π©1π€¨1π»1
//The Wire//2300Z April 21, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PETROLEUM REFINERIES AROUND THE WORLD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC FIRES. US FORCES BOARD TANKER VESSEL TIED TO IRAN IN EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. IEDS DISCOVERED BY HOMEOWNER IN COLORADO.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding of the M/T *TIFANI* in the eastern Bay of Bengal. US forces onboard the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* Expeditionary Sea Base conducted the boarding operation, with the status of the vessel remaining unknown.
Analyst Comment: CENTCOM did not explicitly state whether or not the vessel was actually seized, however the vessel was observed changing course to the south after the Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) interdiction operation was conducted.
-HomeFront-
Colorado: Yesterday the Boulder County Sheriff's Office released details of an explosive device that was discovered in a wooded area near Ponderosa Way, in a residential area of Boulder County. A local resident found a cache of 5x pipe bombs stored in a watertight case in a wooded area of this residential dirt road. The Boulder County Regional Bomb Squad deployed to the scene and a shelter-in-place order was issued while the explosive devices were removed.
Analyst Comment: It's not clear how long the cache of IEDs had been in place, as the homeowner who found the waterproof case had just closed on their home in the area, and only moved in on Sunday. The case was found after the individual had begun walking their dog through their new community, so the cache could have been in place for some time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the world, a series of fires has broken out at various petroleum refineries and natural gas processing facilities. Yesterday a major fire broke out at the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery in India, one day before Prime Minister Modi himself was scheduled to attend the ribbon cutting to formally open the 9 billion dollar refinery complex. On the same day, oil transportation vessels were set on fire in Myanmar (Burma), after an explosion caused a fire to spread rapidly to many small oil transportation barges that were anchored in the Chindwin River near the remote town of Homalin. Local reports state that 10x vessels were impacted or destroyed by the fire.
In Russia, Ukrainian forces have sharply increased attacks on Russian oil and and gas infrastructure, with roughly 12x separate refineries being hit by approximately 17x long-range Ukrainian drone attacks over the past few weeks. Some sources claim that roughly 40% of Russia's petroleum refinement capacity has been taken offline or negatively impacted since March, due to these attacks.
All of these incidents follow the previous refinery fires in Australia and in the United States, with the Viva Energy refinery and the Port Arthur Valero refinery respectively experiencing major fires that shut down operations for some time. Even China has not escaped unscathed, with a major fire being reported at a major chemical factory in the Jinan Industrial Zone two weeks ago.
Though it is hard to attribute all of these mysterious infrastructure incidents to one clear origin, major fires affecting extremely large oil and petrochemical refineries at a time when a huge percentage of the global oil supply is offline is extremely poor timing (at best) or extremely suspicious (at worst). Fires at refineries are decently common, and happen in the third world even more often. However with increased focus on the international fuel crisis, these impacts to operations could not come at a worse time. Regardless of malign action or pure accident, the result is the same: Petroleum products becoming even more scarce and prices climbing higher as the end of the ceasefire looms and another potential week of market volatility remains on the horizon.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PETROLEUM REFINERIES AROUND THE WORLD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC FIRES. US FORCES BOARD TANKER VESSEL TIED TO IRAN IN EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. IEDS DISCOVERED BY HOMEOWNER IN COLORADO.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning CENTCOM announced the boarding of the M/T *TIFANI* in the eastern Bay of Bengal. US forces onboard the USS *JOHN L. CANLEY* Expeditionary Sea Base conducted the boarding operation, with the status of the vessel remaining unknown.
Analyst Comment: CENTCOM did not explicitly state whether or not the vessel was actually seized, however the vessel was observed changing course to the south after the Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) interdiction operation was conducted.
-HomeFront-
Colorado: Yesterday the Boulder County Sheriff's Office released details of an explosive device that was discovered in a wooded area near Ponderosa Way, in a residential area of Boulder County. A local resident found a cache of 5x pipe bombs stored in a watertight case in a wooded area of this residential dirt road. The Boulder County Regional Bomb Squad deployed to the scene and a shelter-in-place order was issued while the explosive devices were removed.
Analyst Comment: It's not clear how long the cache of IEDs had been in place, as the homeowner who found the waterproof case had just closed on their home in the area, and only moved in on Sunday. The case was found after the individual had begun walking their dog through their new community, so the cache could have been in place for some time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the world, a series of fires has broken out at various petroleum refineries and natural gas processing facilities. Yesterday a major fire broke out at the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery in India, one day before Prime Minister Modi himself was scheduled to attend the ribbon cutting to formally open the 9 billion dollar refinery complex. On the same day, oil transportation vessels were set on fire in Myanmar (Burma), after an explosion caused a fire to spread rapidly to many small oil transportation barges that were anchored in the Chindwin River near the remote town of Homalin. Local reports state that 10x vessels were impacted or destroyed by the fire.
In Russia, Ukrainian forces have sharply increased attacks on Russian oil and and gas infrastructure, with roughly 12x separate refineries being hit by approximately 17x long-range Ukrainian drone attacks over the past few weeks. Some sources claim that roughly 40% of Russia's petroleum refinement capacity has been taken offline or negatively impacted since March, due to these attacks.
All of these incidents follow the previous refinery fires in Australia and in the United States, with the Viva Energy refinery and the Port Arthur Valero refinery respectively experiencing major fires that shut down operations for some time. Even China has not escaped unscathed, with a major fire being reported at a major chemical factory in the Jinan Industrial Zone two weeks ago.
Though it is hard to attribute all of these mysterious infrastructure incidents to one clear origin, major fires affecting extremely large oil and petrochemical refineries at a time when a huge percentage of the global oil supply is offline is extremely poor timing (at best) or extremely suspicious (at worst). Fires at refineries are decently common, and happen in the third world even more often. However with increased focus on the international fuel crisis, these impacts to operations could not come at a worse time. Regardless of malign action or pure accident, the result is the same: Petroleum products becoming even more scarce and prices climbing higher as the end of the ceasefire looms and another potential week of market volatility remains on the horizon.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘72π33β€10π₯5π3π»1
//The Wire//2300Z April 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized.
Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided.
Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week.
Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress.
Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war.
On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS FIRED UPON AND SEIZED BY IRAN AFTER ATTEMPTING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GEORGIA MURDER SUSPECT FOUND DECEASED IN HIS CELL. CONGRESSWOMAN IN FLORIDA RESIGNS BEFORE EXPULSION VOTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight several containerships attempted to sneak through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels, the M/V *MSC-FRANCESCA* and the M/V *EPAMINONDAS* were fired upon by Iranian gunboats before being boarded and seized.
Analyst Comment: A third vessel, the M/V *EUPHORIA* also attempted to run the gauntlet during the fray, and as of this morning appears to have actually made it through without being damaged and she is continuing to transit south.
-HomeFront-
Georgia: The suspect in the recent murder spree that took place in DeKalb County has been found dead in his cell in Atlanta. Olaolukitan Adon Abel was discovered unresponsive in his cell last night, before being pronounced dead shortly thereafter. No cause of death has been provided.
Analyst Comment: Abel was charged with multiple counts of murder, in addition to crimes so graphic they cannot be described in mixed company, which took place during his crime spree that spread throughout the Atlanta suburbs last week.
Florida: This morning, Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned, approximately 20 minutes before a vote was scheduled to be held by the House Ethics Committee regarding whether or not to recommend expelling her from Congress.
Analyst Comment: McCormick is currently facing federal charges after engaging in various corruption scandals. She first gained notoriety after using stolen federal disaster funds to purchase a $109,000 ring, which she was observed wearing in her official Congressional photo. Last Christmas, she had the ring photoshopped out of the image, as a federal grand jury had indicted her on charges of stealing over $5 million of FEMA disaster funding. The grand jury agreed that this took the form of awarding COVID relief funds to her family business since 2021, which overbilled the American people for services that were never provided. Despite facing a total of 15x federal felony counts, she was still serving in Congress up until this morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Shortly before the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was set to expire last night, President Trump posted a statement on Truth Social indicating that the ceasefire will be extended indefinitely while waiting for the Iranians to come up with a different proposal. Throughout the region, American military cargo flights continue to take place at an increased rate. Resources are pouring into various airfields throughout the Middle East, almost at the rate observed during the rapid buildup that took place before the war.
On the Iranian side, similar preparations are being made. Fresh satellite imagery from today confirms beyond all doubt that the IRCG-N retains some level of fastboat capability, as one swarm of at least 34x fastboats was observed returning to base in the image. This is the first satellite image available throughout the region for the past few days, and the wake of the fastboat swarm as captured by the Sentinel 2 satellite indicates that this IRCG-N boat swarm was returning from the minefield that was laid earlier. Though it is impossible to confirm the exact activity that was being conducted, from a planning and insurance-risk perspective, it is important to note that most of Iran's minelaying capacity is fulfilled by these exact vessels, which usually carry one or two mines each. As a result it is likely that substantial minelaying operations have been conducted over the past few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘72π27β€7π5π₯3β‘2π1π¨1
//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA INTERCEPTS IRANIAN TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN. CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON EXTENDED. US SECRETARY OF THE NAVY DEPARTS POSITION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will be extended for another three weeks, while the diplomatic efforts with the Iranians continue.
Persian Gulf: Following the Iranian targeting/boarding operations yesterday, nobody has attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. American efforts to conduct resupply and rearming operations throughout the region continue, as the Strait remains closed and no timeline for peace talks being conveyed by either side.
Analyst Comment: Major shipping giants are planning for the Strait to be closed for some time. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, stated that the Strait remains "firmly closed" due to the war. Which, although fairly obvious at this point, has been a very important realization for a major shipping company to acknowledge as the global economy begins settling in for the long haul.
Indian Ocean: Overnight the Pentagon announced the maritime interdiction of the M/T *MAJESTIC X* off the coast of Sri Lanka, continuing the interception of Iranian-linked vessels exporting oil during the ceasefire. This vessel had been on the sanctions list for a many years, and was classified as a stateless vessel as she was using a falsified registration.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This afternoon a shooting was reported at the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge. Local authorities state that the initial investigation indicates this was a case of mutual combat between two groups, which engaged in a small arms skirmish in the food court after an argument. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, and as of this report a total of 3x shooters remain at large following the engagement.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Washington, last night Secretary of the Navy John Phelan departed his position, effective immediately. His deputy, Hung Cao, has stepped in to the role while a replacement is in the works. The reason for his departure has not been confirmed by official sources yet, and officially it is not clear as to if he resigned or was fired. Media speculation and "off the record" conversations among the press pool at the Pentagon has largely theorized that he was fired due to personality clashes with SECWAR Hegseth. Whatever the true reason for this departure, the head of the Navy leaving his position with no turnover or transition process at a time when the US Navy is engaged in a kinetic war, is not a sign indicative of stability at the upper echelons of command. Especially considering the military head of the Army, Gen. George, was also fired from his job as Army Chief of Staff and forced to retire two weeks ago.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA INTERCEPTS IRANIAN TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN. CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON EXTENDED. US SECRETARY OF THE NAVY DEPARTS POSITION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: This afternoon President Trump stated that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will be extended for another three weeks, while the diplomatic efforts with the Iranians continue.
Persian Gulf: Following the Iranian targeting/boarding operations yesterday, nobody has attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. American efforts to conduct resupply and rearming operations throughout the region continue, as the Strait remains closed and no timeline for peace talks being conveyed by either side.
Analyst Comment: Major shipping giants are planning for the Strait to be closed for some time. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, stated that the Strait remains "firmly closed" due to the war. Which, although fairly obvious at this point, has been a very important realization for a major shipping company to acknowledge as the global economy begins settling in for the long haul.
Indian Ocean: Overnight the Pentagon announced the maritime interdiction of the M/T *MAJESTIC X* off the coast of Sri Lanka, continuing the interception of Iranian-linked vessels exporting oil during the ceasefire. This vessel had been on the sanctions list for a many years, and was classified as a stateless vessel as she was using a falsified registration.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This afternoon a shooting was reported at the Mall of Louisiana in Baton Rouge. Local authorities state that the initial investigation indicates this was a case of mutual combat between two groups, which engaged in a small arms skirmish in the food court after an argument. A total of 10x people were wounded during the attack, and as of this report a total of 3x shooters remain at large following the engagement.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Washington, last night Secretary of the Navy John Phelan departed his position, effective immediately. His deputy, Hung Cao, has stepped in to the role while a replacement is in the works. The reason for his departure has not been confirmed by official sources yet, and officially it is not clear as to if he resigned or was fired. Media speculation and "off the record" conversations among the press pool at the Pentagon has largely theorized that he was fired due to personality clashes with SECWAR Hegseth. Whatever the true reason for this departure, the head of the Navy leaving his position with no turnover or transition process at a time when the US Navy is engaged in a kinetic war, is not a sign indicative of stability at the upper echelons of command. Especially considering the military head of the Army, Gen. George, was also fired from his job as Army Chief of Staff and forced to retire two weeks ago.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘69π22β€9π7β‘4π1
//The Wire//2300Z April 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BUILDUP OF AMERICAN FORCES IN MIDDLE EAST REACHES RECORD LEVELS. KUWAITI BORDER CHECKPOINTS HIT BY FPV DRONES. ARREST MADE REGARDING MOLOTOV ATTACK IN LOUISIANA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight Kuwaiti forces reported two FPV drone strikes on border crossing checkpoints with Iraq. No casualties were reported as a result of the attack.
Analyst Comment: The statement provided by the Kuwaiti Army did not specifically disclose which border crossings were targeted, however there are only two crossing points in total: one main crossing on the northern border, and a smaller outpost on the western border. The interesting detail in the notice is the disclosure that these attacks were conducted by fiber-optically-guided FPV drones, and both of these sites were too far away from each other for these attacks to have been conducted by the same team.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This morning one individual was arrested following the firebombing of a Tesla Service Center two weeks ago. John Michael Hinkhouse was arrested for throwing a Molotov device at the entrance to the facility, which resulted in fire damaging the front of the building. Hinkhouse was located after security cameras tracked him back to his residence after the attack.
Washington D.C. - Two incidents involving city busses have taken place over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, a bus caught fire in the 9th Street Tunnel, resulting in the tunnel being shut down for many hours. The cause of the fire remains unknown. This morning, two city busses collided with each other head-on in the Pentagon's south parking lot, resulting in a total of 23x people being injured.
Analyst Comment: Currently there are no indications that either incident was nefarious in any way, however it's worth paying attention to during periods of heightened terrorism risk, just in case other incidents pop up later.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning strategic movement in the Middle East, American cargo flights continue unabated, along with the forward deployment of even more fighter aircraft. Last night another squadron of F/A-18's arrived at Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS *MIGUEL KIETH* (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having transited the Strait of Malacca and should be arriving on station soon (though it is not clear as to if she is expected to take part in this operation).
This brings a total of 3x aircraft carriers, 2x Expeditionary Sea Bases, and 1x amphibious assault ship (a total of 6 "flat tops") for whatever operations are planned. Of note, CENTCOM has provided press materials that imply that the *BUSH* is not replacing the *LINCOLN* or the damaged *FORD* but will serve independently as a third strike group throughout the region. This buildup has become even more substantial than the 4+ months of lead-up to this war breaking out, with even more naval assets being transferred from the Pacific to supplement the forces already in theater. As a reminder, at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne is still in the region. Considering all of these developments, the grand question remains: Does the US plan to reignite the war? This remains an unknown, and it's impossible to know what secret decisions have been made at the upper echelons of government. What is certain, is that a large-scale rearmament and resupply operation has been ongoing since the ceasefire went into effect, and enough resources are on station to conduct large scale operations if that is the chosen course of action. Not only is the war not over, but there are now vastly more resources in theater right now, than at the start of the conflict.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BUILDUP OF AMERICAN FORCES IN MIDDLE EAST REACHES RECORD LEVELS. KUWAITI BORDER CHECKPOINTS HIT BY FPV DRONES. ARREST MADE REGARDING MOLOTOV ATTACK IN LOUISIANA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight Kuwaiti forces reported two FPV drone strikes on border crossing checkpoints with Iraq. No casualties were reported as a result of the attack.
Analyst Comment: The statement provided by the Kuwaiti Army did not specifically disclose which border crossings were targeted, however there are only two crossing points in total: one main crossing on the northern border, and a smaller outpost on the western border. The interesting detail in the notice is the disclosure that these attacks were conducted by fiber-optically-guided FPV drones, and both of these sites were too far away from each other for these attacks to have been conducted by the same team.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This morning one individual was arrested following the firebombing of a Tesla Service Center two weeks ago. John Michael Hinkhouse was arrested for throwing a Molotov device at the entrance to the facility, which resulted in fire damaging the front of the building. Hinkhouse was located after security cameras tracked him back to his residence after the attack.
Washington D.C. - Two incidents involving city busses have taken place over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, a bus caught fire in the 9th Street Tunnel, resulting in the tunnel being shut down for many hours. The cause of the fire remains unknown. This morning, two city busses collided with each other head-on in the Pentagon's south parking lot, resulting in a total of 23x people being injured.
Analyst Comment: Currently there are no indications that either incident was nefarious in any way, however it's worth paying attention to during periods of heightened terrorism risk, just in case other incidents pop up later.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning strategic movement in the Middle East, American cargo flights continue unabated, along with the forward deployment of even more fighter aircraft. Last night another squadron of F/A-18's arrived at Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS *MIGUEL KIETH* (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having transited the Strait of Malacca and should be arriving on station soon (though it is not clear as to if she is expected to take part in this operation).
This brings a total of 3x aircraft carriers, 2x Expeditionary Sea Bases, and 1x amphibious assault ship (a total of 6 "flat tops") for whatever operations are planned. Of note, CENTCOM has provided press materials that imply that the *BUSH* is not replacing the *LINCOLN* or the damaged *FORD* but will serve independently as a third strike group throughout the region. This buildup has become even more substantial than the 4+ months of lead-up to this war breaking out, with even more naval assets being transferred from the Pacific to supplement the forces already in theater. As a reminder, at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne is still in the region. Considering all of these developments, the grand question remains: Does the US plan to reignite the war? This remains an unknown, and it's impossible to know what secret decisions have been made at the upper echelons of government. What is certain, is that a large-scale rearmament and resupply operation has been ongoing since the ceasefire went into effect, and enough resources are on station to conduct large scale operations if that is the chosen course of action. Not only is the war not over, but there are now vastly more resources in theater right now, than at the start of the conflict.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘75π22β€12β‘5π5π2π₯1π1π»1πΏ1
This week's Intel Update is out! Another week of ceasefire in the Middle East...which all sides are taking advantage of to rearm and resupply. All the while, the Shadow War rages here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/4kMAQyX6WqY
YouTube
Intel Update - April 25 - Surging Again
Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00
Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=β¦
Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00
Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=β¦
π«‘41π26β€3π2β‘1
//The Wire//0120Z April 26, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT'S DINNER. ONE SHOOTER REPORTEDLY NEUTRALIZED BY SECRET SERVICE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This evening shots were fired at the Washington Hilton Hotel, during the annual White House Correspondent's Dinner. Initial reports by law enforcement on scene indicated one shooter was neutralized by Secret Service agents after attempting to gain entry to the facility through the hotel lobby. President Trump and other high ranking attendees have been evacuated from the facility in accordance with protocol. The hotel remains on lockdown while a sweep of the facility is being carried out.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As this incident is currently developing, the dynamic nature of the incident results in nothing being confirmed at the moment. The only detail that is confirmed are the many gunshots that were audible on the cameras that were covering the event. No word yet on the shooter's identity. More details to follow as the situation develops.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: SHOOTING REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT'S DINNER. ONE SHOOTER REPORTEDLY NEUTRALIZED BY SECRET SERVICE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This evening shots were fired at the Washington Hilton Hotel, during the annual White House Correspondent's Dinner. Initial reports by law enforcement on scene indicated one shooter was neutralized by Secret Service agents after attempting to gain entry to the facility through the hotel lobby. President Trump and other high ranking attendees have been evacuated from the facility in accordance with protocol. The hotel remains on lockdown while a sweep of the facility is being carried out.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As this incident is currently developing, the dynamic nature of the incident results in nothing being confirmed at the moment. The only detail that is confirmed are the many gunshots that were audible on the cameras that were covering the event. No word yet on the shooter's identity. More details to follow as the situation develops.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘94π26β€16π10β‘4π3π2π₯1
//The Wire//2300Z April 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MORE DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING LATEST PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN WASHINGTON. IRANIAN DIPLOMATS MEET WITH RUSSIA REGARDING GULF WAR. IED ATTACKS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow for talks with President Putin, which are aimed at strengthening the ties between Iran and Russia during the war. This follows the United States calling off the latest round of negotiations, with no firm date for the resumption of talks with Iran.
Analyst Comment: This meeting, at this moment, is a big deal. Up until this point, Russia has not actively participated in the war, beyond the fairly standard statements made urging a settlement to the conflict. Most of Russia's comments have focused on the economics of the war, and how this conflict can help them in the long term. Putin directly meeting with Araghchi is a strong diplomatic move that will both strengthen Iran's standing internationally, but also make it much harder for the United States to retain power-projection. The United States calling off negotiations, and Iranian diplomats showing up in Moscow is not an insignificant development in the world of international diplomacy.
Northern Ireland: As civil unrest has been brewing for the past few months (being compounded by fuel shortages over the past few weeks), another carbombing was reported overnight outside the police station in Dunmurry, just south of Belfast. No one was injured during the attack, however a police officer was almost killed when the IED was detonated.
Analyst Comment: This was a no-kidding carbomb, of the type traditional to the region. Local police state that this is possibly the work of a group calling themselves the "New IRA", which is attempting to utilize the tactics of the PIRA from the era of The Troubles. Some warning was given in advance of the detonation, as police officers were attempting to evacuate the area when the blast occurred, and the official press release by authorities stated that a delivery driver was carjacked and forced to deliver the IED to the police station. This is the second similar incident in as many months, with a nearly identical carbombing taking place in Lurgan last month.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - More details have come to light regarding the shooting at the Washington Hilton Hotel on Saturday. The shooter has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen, who had released a manifesto regarding the attack, which was intended to be an assassination attempt targeting President Trump. His main attack vector took the form of rushing through a Secret Service checkpoint with a shotgun and handgun, before he was engaged. Despite initial reports, the suspect was not killed at the scene, and photos of the aftermath indicate that he might not have been hit at all. A total of 5-8 rounds were fired during the entire engagement, though who fired which rounds remains unclear. One Secret Service agent was shot in the vest at some point during the fray, allegedly by the suspect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the wake of the attempted assassination of President Trump, many are questioning how this could have happened again. Not only was this the third attempt on President Trump's life (or the fourth attempt if we count the indictment of Asif Merchant as a proper attempt), but this is the exact same location where Ronald Reagan was also shot during his own assassination attempt in 1981. John Hinkley Jr. shot President Reagan about 30 yards from where Allen conducted his attack.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MORE DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING LATEST PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN WASHINGTON. IRANIAN DIPLOMATS MEET WITH RUSSIA REGARDING GULF WAR. IED ATTACKS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow for talks with President Putin, which are aimed at strengthening the ties between Iran and Russia during the war. This follows the United States calling off the latest round of negotiations, with no firm date for the resumption of talks with Iran.
Analyst Comment: This meeting, at this moment, is a big deal. Up until this point, Russia has not actively participated in the war, beyond the fairly standard statements made urging a settlement to the conflict. Most of Russia's comments have focused on the economics of the war, and how this conflict can help them in the long term. Putin directly meeting with Araghchi is a strong diplomatic move that will both strengthen Iran's standing internationally, but also make it much harder for the United States to retain power-projection. The United States calling off negotiations, and Iranian diplomats showing up in Moscow is not an insignificant development in the world of international diplomacy.
Northern Ireland: As civil unrest has been brewing for the past few months (being compounded by fuel shortages over the past few weeks), another carbombing was reported overnight outside the police station in Dunmurry, just south of Belfast. No one was injured during the attack, however a police officer was almost killed when the IED was detonated.
Analyst Comment: This was a no-kidding carbomb, of the type traditional to the region. Local police state that this is possibly the work of a group calling themselves the "New IRA", which is attempting to utilize the tactics of the PIRA from the era of The Troubles. Some warning was given in advance of the detonation, as police officers were attempting to evacuate the area when the blast occurred, and the official press release by authorities stated that a delivery driver was carjacked and forced to deliver the IED to the police station. This is the second similar incident in as many months, with a nearly identical carbombing taking place in Lurgan last month.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - More details have come to light regarding the shooting at the Washington Hilton Hotel on Saturday. The shooter has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen, who had released a manifesto regarding the attack, which was intended to be an assassination attempt targeting President Trump. His main attack vector took the form of rushing through a Secret Service checkpoint with a shotgun and handgun, before he was engaged. Despite initial reports, the suspect was not killed at the scene, and photos of the aftermath indicate that he might not have been hit at all. A total of 5-8 rounds were fired during the entire engagement, though who fired which rounds remains unclear. One Secret Service agent was shot in the vest at some point during the fray, allegedly by the suspect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the wake of the attempted assassination of President Trump, many are questioning how this could have happened again. Not only was this the third attempt on President Trump's life (or the fourth attempt if we count the indictment of Asif Merchant as a proper attempt), but this is the exact same location where Ronald Reagan was also shot during his own assassination attempt in 1981. John Hinkley Jr. shot President Reagan about 30 yards from where Allen conducted his attack.
π«‘60π24π€8β€6π₯5π4π2β‘1
In our present day, the President, Vice President, Speaker of the House, most of the Cabinet, and many other high-ranking officials were in attendance, despite the palpably high threat posture that has remained constant in the wake of the prior assassination attempts. The hotel itself was not locked down for the event; the hotel was open for business for regular guests. It is this vulnerability that was exploited by the shooter, who booked a hotel room for the night of the event, which not only allowed him access to the building, but also allowed him a place to cache his weapons inside the security perimeter.
Otherwise, questions remain regarding the overall security posture at the event. Though it must be noted with extreme levels of irony that nearly all of the eyewitnesses of the event are mainstream media journalists, there is no one clear telling of what happened. Also, many of the sources for this incident have made very long careers not exactly being notable for honesty, so much of the testimony of the night's events must be taken with a large grain of salt. Other than the direct shooting itself, other breaches of security allegedly took place that night as well. One Code Pink activist was escorted out of the crowd (before the shooting started), after attempting to slip in among the dinner attendees before the event began. After the shooting, another activist rushed the Presidential Motorcade, getting close to the convoy as it was egressing from the venue after the shooting. Several other perimeter breaches were reported in the seconds after the shooting, as the security cordon expanded after the shots were fired.
Around the city, the situation was not much better when it comes to situational awareness and security. Two weeks ago, shots were fired in Lafayette Park (directly adjacent to the White House)...and nobody knows who did it. Shell casings were found on the ground, but this incident highlighted that an unknown gunman can indeed fire a weapon in the most heavily surveilled square block on Earth, and get away without any of the 30+ overlapping jurisdictions being able to find out who it was.
Yesterday, one night after the shooting, a Twitch streamer found a DC Park Police officer asleep in his patrol car, with cartoons playing on his work laptop...right outside the White House. While one case study is not exactly proof of much, it is an indicator of the lack of seriousness that is expressed by many throughout Washington. When Reagan was shot at the Washington Hilton Hotel, DC was on high-alert for months, with some security postures being maintained for years. One would think that the President almost being assassinated a few blocks away for the 3rd time, might be a bit more motivating to take security seriously, but so far this has not been observed.
In short, apart from the Butler incident, this assassination attempt was the closest to success so far, with the shooter almost making it to the room housing the President. And so far, very few entities have recognized just how serious this event was. A Reddit-tier idiot being able to fire his shotgun within feet of the President of the United States, is quite a serious breach of security and it is not comforting whatsoever that tragedy was averted by the very last link in the chain of security being relied upon to prevent a major disaster. By the time that a close protection detail gets activated, gross and inexcusable breakdowns of security have already taken place...when the Secret Service is physically yanking their protectee out of their chair, many things have gone wrong leading up that that point. If the shooter had been wearing an explosive vest, Sen. Chuck Grassley might have been the President this morning, because most of the line of succession was in the same room as President Trump...and the shooter got within sight of the door.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
Otherwise, questions remain regarding the overall security posture at the event. Though it must be noted with extreme levels of irony that nearly all of the eyewitnesses of the event are mainstream media journalists, there is no one clear telling of what happened. Also, many of the sources for this incident have made very long careers not exactly being notable for honesty, so much of the testimony of the night's events must be taken with a large grain of salt. Other than the direct shooting itself, other breaches of security allegedly took place that night as well. One Code Pink activist was escorted out of the crowd (before the shooting started), after attempting to slip in among the dinner attendees before the event began. After the shooting, another activist rushed the Presidential Motorcade, getting close to the convoy as it was egressing from the venue after the shooting. Several other perimeter breaches were reported in the seconds after the shooting, as the security cordon expanded after the shots were fired.
Around the city, the situation was not much better when it comes to situational awareness and security. Two weeks ago, shots were fired in Lafayette Park (directly adjacent to the White House)...and nobody knows who did it. Shell casings were found on the ground, but this incident highlighted that an unknown gunman can indeed fire a weapon in the most heavily surveilled square block on Earth, and get away without any of the 30+ overlapping jurisdictions being able to find out who it was.
Yesterday, one night after the shooting, a Twitch streamer found a DC Park Police officer asleep in his patrol car, with cartoons playing on his work laptop...right outside the White House. While one case study is not exactly proof of much, it is an indicator of the lack of seriousness that is expressed by many throughout Washington. When Reagan was shot at the Washington Hilton Hotel, DC was on high-alert for months, with some security postures being maintained for years. One would think that the President almost being assassinated a few blocks away for the 3rd time, might be a bit more motivating to take security seriously, but so far this has not been observed.
In short, apart from the Butler incident, this assassination attempt was the closest to success so far, with the shooter almost making it to the room housing the President. And so far, very few entities have recognized just how serious this event was. A Reddit-tier idiot being able to fire his shotgun within feet of the President of the United States, is quite a serious breach of security and it is not comforting whatsoever that tragedy was averted by the very last link in the chain of security being relied upon to prevent a major disaster. By the time that a close protection detail gets activated, gross and inexcusable breakdowns of security have already taken place...when the Secret Service is physically yanking their protectee out of their chair, many things have gone wrong leading up that that point. If the shooter had been wearing an explosive vest, Sen. Chuck Grassley might have been the President this morning, because most of the line of succession was in the same room as President Trump...and the shooter got within sight of the door.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘91π30β€9π€4π4β‘3π2π€‘2β1π€¨1
//The Wire//2300Z April 28, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON CONTINUES DESPITE CEASEFIRE. PIRACY ACTIVITY COMPLICATES MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN THE GULF OF ADEN, THREAT LEVEL ELEVATED. SOMALI DAYCARES RAIDED IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Hezbollah conducting FPV drone strikes on Israeli armor, which are continuing their clearance operations in southern Lebanon.
Analyst Comment: The ceasefire between these two belligerents being such a sticking point with the Iranian talks has not really resulted in a cessation of the war. At best, the Israelis have slowed down the bombing within downtown Beirut, but otherwise this war continues on.
Red Sea/HOA: As the tenuous situation continues in the Persian Gulf, the Somalis have begun to increase hijacking attempts targeting commercial vessels in the vicinity of the Gulf of Aden. Last week, Somali pirates boarded and hijacked an unidentified tanker vessel, directing the vessel to Somalia's territorial waters. Overnight, another hijacking was reported as the M/V *SWARD* was hijacked in a similar manner, with the vessel being taken to the pirate strongholds along the eastern coast of the country. After these two hijacking incidents, another piracy attempt was reported today, to the east, farther off the coast. Separately, a local Somali fishing boat was hijacked by Somali pirates last week, and an attempted boarding was reported in the same area.
Analyst Comment: Piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden has been a mainstay for decades. However, now that many shipping routes are skewed due to the Gulf War, piracy activity has increased over the past few weeks. Two successful hijackings and several other attempted hijacking operations taking place within just a few days is noteworthy, especially for the companies attempting to adjust to the radical changes to maritime shipping brought on by the war. As a result the UKMTO has elevated the threat to SUBSTANTIAL for the Somali Basin and the Somali Coast.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: This morning the FBI conducted raids at several Somali daycare facilities in Minneapolis, many of which were at the center of previous fraud scandals. The Quality Learing Center was among the list of sites where evidence was collected, and around a dozen facilities in total were the target of the raids. The city of Minneapolis was not a part of the raid, and went out of their way to distance themselves from the federal investigations into these facilities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Not many details have emerged regarding the Washington Hilton assassination attempt, beyond what was immediately published the day of the shooting. The shooter's home in Torrance, California was raided on Sunday, but no disclosures have been made regarding whether or not anything was found. One of the major intelligence gaps (at least in the public sphere) is whether or not the suspect was communicating with anyone else before the attack. Some indications are present that he was talking to family members (who knew he possessed violent intent), but it is not known if the suspect was coordinating or communicating with anyone online, specifically to plan the attack. Most of the high-profile targeting efforts observed over the past few years (not just the Trump assassination attempts, but the Kirk assassination and the sniper attacks on ICE facilities) have involved the shooters having an extensive online presence, which in most cases indicated some level of communication with others. In this case, Allen survived the attack, so his testimony is at least available, and more time will be needed to determine if anyone else was involved in the planning phases of the attack.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON CONTINUES DESPITE CEASEFIRE. PIRACY ACTIVITY COMPLICATES MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN THE GULF OF ADEN, THREAT LEVEL ELEVATED. SOMALI DAYCARES RAIDED IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Hezbollah conducting FPV drone strikes on Israeli armor, which are continuing their clearance operations in southern Lebanon.
Analyst Comment: The ceasefire between these two belligerents being such a sticking point with the Iranian talks has not really resulted in a cessation of the war. At best, the Israelis have slowed down the bombing within downtown Beirut, but otherwise this war continues on.
Red Sea/HOA: As the tenuous situation continues in the Persian Gulf, the Somalis have begun to increase hijacking attempts targeting commercial vessels in the vicinity of the Gulf of Aden. Last week, Somali pirates boarded and hijacked an unidentified tanker vessel, directing the vessel to Somalia's territorial waters. Overnight, another hijacking was reported as the M/V *SWARD* was hijacked in a similar manner, with the vessel being taken to the pirate strongholds along the eastern coast of the country. After these two hijacking incidents, another piracy attempt was reported today, to the east, farther off the coast. Separately, a local Somali fishing boat was hijacked by Somali pirates last week, and an attempted boarding was reported in the same area.
Analyst Comment: Piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden has been a mainstay for decades. However, now that many shipping routes are skewed due to the Gulf War, piracy activity has increased over the past few weeks. Two successful hijackings and several other attempted hijacking operations taking place within just a few days is noteworthy, especially for the companies attempting to adjust to the radical changes to maritime shipping brought on by the war. As a result the UKMTO has elevated the threat to SUBSTANTIAL for the Somali Basin and the Somali Coast.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: This morning the FBI conducted raids at several Somali daycare facilities in Minneapolis, many of which were at the center of previous fraud scandals. The Quality Learing Center was among the list of sites where evidence was collected, and around a dozen facilities in total were the target of the raids. The city of Minneapolis was not a part of the raid, and went out of their way to distance themselves from the federal investigations into these facilities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Not many details have emerged regarding the Washington Hilton assassination attempt, beyond what was immediately published the day of the shooting. The shooter's home in Torrance, California was raided on Sunday, but no disclosures have been made regarding whether or not anything was found. One of the major intelligence gaps (at least in the public sphere) is whether or not the suspect was communicating with anyone else before the attack. Some indications are present that he was talking to family members (who knew he possessed violent intent), but it is not known if the suspect was coordinating or communicating with anyone online, specifically to plan the attack. Most of the high-profile targeting efforts observed over the past few years (not just the Trump assassination attempts, but the Kirk assassination and the sniper attacks on ICE facilities) have involved the shooters having an extensive online presence, which in most cases indicated some level of communication with others. In this case, Allen survived the attack, so his testimony is at least available, and more time will be needed to determine if anyone else was involved in the planning phases of the attack.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
π«‘70π27β€6π4π2π₯1
//The Wire//2300Z April 29, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICT INTENSIFIES IN MALI. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES LONDON. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DECIDE TO LEAVE OPEC.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday the United Arab Emirates announced their intention to withdraw from OPEC, the organization of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries which are responsible for the coordination of oil production throughout the region.
Analyst Comment: This is an important development that might be an early indicator of much more serious changes within the petroleum sector. Most of the major oil refineries in the UAE getting smoked by the Iranians was probably the driving factor behind this decision, or rather the last straw for the Emirates, who has been increasingly annoyed with OPEC's quota system over the years. However, since many other nations also saw catastrophic damage to their main source of national income, it is possible that a free-for-all situation might develop over time, whereby OPEC's stability is called into question. In short, the already volatile oil market is likely to stay insane for quite a while.
Africa: The situation remains tense in Mali, as multiple different conflicts begin to come to a head. A few days ago, several separate attacks throughout the nation morphed into becoming a larger-scale uprising. Two groups, JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) coordinated to launch major attacks throughout the country, mostly focusing on the capital of Bamako, as well as major military bases in Kati and other major cities. During the attacks, Mali's Defense Minister was killed during an alleged Vehicle-Borne IED attack on his home. Due to the deteriorating security situation, most European nations and the U.S. have recommended either leaving the country as soon as possible or sheltering in place if it's too late to leave.
United Kingdom: Two incidents have taken place in Golders Green over the past 24 hours. Yesterday a suspected arson incident was reported at a memorial wall set up for Iranians killed during the war. Separately, a stabbing attack was reported this morning in the same area, which involved a man approaching a bus stop and stabbing people on the street. The man was detained by a Shomrim foot patrol in the area, and a total of two people were wounded during this attack. Hours after the incident, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) claimed credit for the attack.
Separately, a large-scale police raid was conducted at Webb House in Crewe. This former orphanage had been turned into a migrant hotel, before eventually serving as the headquarters for a new religion, the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light. Over 500 police officers raided the compound this morning, in conjunction with investigations which indicated that this facility was serving as a large-scale human trafficking center, as well as clearing house for slaves, who were reportedly being bought and sold at the facility.
-----END TEARLINE-----
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICT INTENSIFIES IN MALI. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES LONDON. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES DECIDE TO LEAVE OPEC.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday the United Arab Emirates announced their intention to withdraw from OPEC, the organization of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries which are responsible for the coordination of oil production throughout the region.
Analyst Comment: This is an important development that might be an early indicator of much more serious changes within the petroleum sector. Most of the major oil refineries in the UAE getting smoked by the Iranians was probably the driving factor behind this decision, or rather the last straw for the Emirates, who has been increasingly annoyed with OPEC's quota system over the years. However, since many other nations also saw catastrophic damage to their main source of national income, it is possible that a free-for-all situation might develop over time, whereby OPEC's stability is called into question. In short, the already volatile oil market is likely to stay insane for quite a while.
Africa: The situation remains tense in Mali, as multiple different conflicts begin to come to a head. A few days ago, several separate attacks throughout the nation morphed into becoming a larger-scale uprising. Two groups, JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) coordinated to launch major attacks throughout the country, mostly focusing on the capital of Bamako, as well as major military bases in Kati and other major cities. During the attacks, Mali's Defense Minister was killed during an alleged Vehicle-Borne IED attack on his home. Due to the deteriorating security situation, most European nations and the U.S. have recommended either leaving the country as soon as possible or sheltering in place if it's too late to leave.
United Kingdom: Two incidents have taken place in Golders Green over the past 24 hours. Yesterday a suspected arson incident was reported at a memorial wall set up for Iranians killed during the war. Separately, a stabbing attack was reported this morning in the same area, which involved a man approaching a bus stop and stabbing people on the street. The man was detained by a Shomrim foot patrol in the area, and a total of two people were wounded during this attack. Hours after the incident, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) claimed credit for the attack.
Separately, a large-scale police raid was conducted at Webb House in Crewe. This former orphanage had been turned into a migrant hotel, before eventually serving as the headquarters for a new religion, the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light. Over 500 police officers raided the compound this morning, in conjunction with investigations which indicated that this facility was serving as a large-scale human trafficking center, as well as clearing house for slaves, who were reportedly being bought and sold at the facility.
-----END TEARLINE-----
π«‘44π16π₯4π3β€2π2
Analyst Comments: The source material for what's going on in Mali is nearly entirely Russian, as this is Russia's expeditionary fight to protect their interests in the region. However, quite significant events are underway in the Sahel, and the fighting has been widespread over the past few days. For context, after the French and Americans began leaving Mali (or reducing their roles) Russia and China stepped in to control the power vacuum. Nevertheless, the security situation deteriorated anyway, and now al-Qaeda is roaring back to power via splinter groups which have attracted tens of thousands of fighters. The Russian Africa Corp is saying that 12,000 fighters took part in the various attacks throughout the country, but this figure cannot be verified for obvious reasons. Either way, the situation is very hot throughout Mali, and the conflict is likely to intensify if one side gets the upper hand. The Russians also claim that this was a coordinated coup attempt that was intended to overthrow the Malian government, which they claim to have suppressed for now. Fighting still remains fairly constant throughout the nation, with the general security situation remaining just shy of an open civil war for the moment.
As to why this matters to the United States, for the most part it doesn't really immediately affect the homeland. Tribal and insurgent conflicts in Africa are fairly regular and this conflict, while the largest in recent memory, is still a low-intensity conflict that will mostly affect Europe over the next few weeks. France, for example, gets nearly all of their Uranium for their nuclear reactors from the Sahel region, though they have been trying to shift to Botswana due to the security situation in the north of the continent. As France pivoted away, Russia stepped in to be the biggest power-player on the block, with Russia mostly being interested in Mali's vast wealth of gold. If the US wants to make it harder for Russia to extract resources in the region, worsening the war would be a good way to do it, however over time the expansion of a series of insurgencies in the Sahel is going to increase the risk to international trade routes in the long term. Even more seriously, this has the potential (if the belligerents so desire) to serve as yet another proxy frontline of the many conflicts that are currently underway around the world. We have wars underway in Europe and the Middle East, and now Africa is added to the list, with no end in sight for any of these conflicts.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
As to why this matters to the United States, for the most part it doesn't really immediately affect the homeland. Tribal and insurgent conflicts in Africa are fairly regular and this conflict, while the largest in recent memory, is still a low-intensity conflict that will mostly affect Europe over the next few weeks. France, for example, gets nearly all of their Uranium for their nuclear reactors from the Sahel region, though they have been trying to shift to Botswana due to the security situation in the north of the continent. As France pivoted away, Russia stepped in to be the biggest power-player on the block, with Russia mostly being interested in Mali's vast wealth of gold. If the US wants to make it harder for Russia to extract resources in the region, worsening the war would be a good way to do it, however over time the expansion of a series of insurgencies in the Sahel is going to increase the risk to international trade routes in the long term. Even more seriously, this has the potential (if the belligerents so desire) to serve as yet another proxy frontline of the many conflicts that are currently underway around the world. We have wars underway in Europe and the Middle East, and now Africa is added to the list, with no end in sight for any of these conflicts.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground's research notes, investigations, data points, links, and much more, to the Obsidian platform. For those who miβ¦
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