This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at how the multiple wars are going on overseas; from Scandinavia to Indochina, things are heating up as the Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars complicate life for most of us here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/ShvEdsULxpw

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.

Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.

Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.

Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.

Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.

This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.

This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan.

In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T *AL SALMI* was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel.

Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues.

Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks.

Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks.

-HomeFront-

USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly".

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck.

However, in going through this process, the world eventually finds out what targets were on that list. And right now, a month after the war began, the targets that are being struck are probably an indicator of what is being planned for. As an example, the US completely leveled the entire headquarters for the 33rd and the 44th Artillery Groups, which included dozens of impact craters being observed on satellite imagery in the boneyard of old artillery pieces that have been in this same location since the Iran-Iraq War. These field artillery units, while certainly valid military targets in a declared state of Armed Conflict, aren't exactly a high priority for meeting the strategic objectives conveyed by the White House. These artillery pieces, however, would have been of great use for defending against forces on the ground.

As at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne arrives in CENTCOM to supplement the two MEU's already on station, many are speculating on the potential for a US ground invasion of Iran. This is debatable to the point that many people believe such a possibility is unthinkable, and the rhetoric of the war winding down any day now has been a constant factor for consideration. However, this rhetoric is not reflected by the raw information available at the present moment concerning the situation on the ground. Operations so far indicate that if a ground invasion were on the menu, the targets that are being struck right now are the exact sites that would need to be struck for any ground combat element to have any chance of success at all. Nevertheless, aside from the forward deployment of troops to the region, many more boxes must be checked before any ground operation would be feasible.

Most military doctrine dictates that "the defensive form of warfare is stronger than the offense" (Clausewitz), which makes the task ahead much more difficult since the most effective way to conduct littoral operations in a contested environment is to effectively disrupt the enemy's kill-chain (i.e. their own manner of identifying and prosecuting their own targets) BEFORE operations are conducted within the enemy's weapons engagement zone (WEZ). Conducting operations within the WEZ is an expectation of the Marine forces currently deployed, as this mission set is their bread and butter. However, at this point, that kill-chain has not been disrupted to a sufficient degree, and Iranian forces routinely conduct over-the-horizon targeting capability. So in short, it may be some time before even the most basic ground operation will be feasible under current military doctrine. However, the textbook can always be disregarded at any point, and decision-makers are going to do whatever they so choose.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC AIRLIFT OF AMERICAN GROUND ATTACK AIRCRAFT TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES. AUSTRALIA MOVES TO NEXT STEP OF FUEL CRISIS PLAN. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING OF MERCHANT VESSELS IN PERSIAN GULF.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

United Kingdom: Strategic movement of US military assets continues as ground attack aircraft continue their transit to the Middle East. A total of 18x A-10C Thunderbolt II (Warthog) aircraft were observed at RAF Lakenheath on a temporary stop during movement into the CENTCOM area of responsibility. 6x more F-22 Raptor's were also observed arriving around the same time, which supplement the increase in cargo aircraft heading to the Middle East over the past few days.

Middle East: Iranian attacks on commercial shipping continue, as another vessel (M/T AQUA 1) was struck by two projectiles off the coast of Qatar last night. This morning, Iranian forces hit the headquarters for Batelco in Bahrain, a major telecommunications company which hosts several Amazon Web Services (AWS) server farms at this location. Fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were also hit again this morning, as Iranian forces continue to strike the tanks which were not destroyed in the first wave of attacks at the start of the war.

Australia: Last night PM Albanese addressed the nation with regards to the growing energy crisis around the nation. Australia has transitioned into Stage 2 of their newly-announced National Fuel Security Plan, which mostly involves removing or reducing taxes on fuel as prices remain extremely high due to the tightening of availability. The next step (if so required) will involve more targeted action to conserve fuel resources.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Tonight at 9:00pm (EST) President Trump is scheduled to address the nation with regards to the war in Iran. This follows the earlier address by PM Albanese of Australia and PM Starmer of the United Kingdom, who all have conducted addresses to their nations today, both of which focused on rising costs resulting from the war.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, as the potential expansion of American combat operations looms, other indications are stacking up suggesting a more global involvement. Last night the Chechens announced that they are preparing to deploy to Iran in the event of a US invasion. While this almost certainly more of a propaganda effort than a serious endeavor, the potential involvement of mercenaries that have the backing of a superpower is still a factor for operational planning. Similarly, the Russians are claiming to have killed Anatolii Onyshchuk, one of the drone warfare advisors allegedly sent to Dubai to assist with efforts to coordinate more effective anti-drone countermeasures. Whether or not this is true is hard to verify with absolute certainty, however Ukrainian advisors have publicly been deployed to Dubai to liaise on matters of drone warfare.

While these details are fairly minor, these developments highlight the fact that this war is not just a proxy war being fought by the United States...other nations are also involved as well. The Russians helping the Iranians to kill Ukrainian advisors in Dubai, while an interesting turn of events, is still an expected development that continues to stress the wide-scale nature of the wars being fought around the world. Regardless of how this war has worked out so far, the operational planning for what comes next will likely need to focus on not just the potential nuts and bolts of the Iranian defenses, but also the involvement of the rest of the world as well. Many adversaries of the United States seek to capitalize on any American mistakes in the region, and as a result everyone from armed factions in the Middle East, to Asian trade partners jaded by their treatment during the tariff scandals from a few months ago, will all attempt to settle old scores by making American endeavors in the region much more difficult than they otherwise would have been. Whether the war ends today...or escalates tomorrow...things will not be getting any easier anytime soon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: COLONIAL PIPELINE SHUT DOWN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AFTER SUSTAINING DAMAGE IN GEORGIA. STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS UNITED STATES BEGINS TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN IRAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: American targeting within Iran continues as Iranian forces continue to hit U.S. bases throughout the region. American bases in Kuwait have been hammered over the past few days, with ballistic missile strikes being reported at Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase. Within Iran, this morning the United States began more deliberate attacks on infrastructure which are not solely military targets. The B1 bridge west of Tehran was destroyed, which was not yet opened (it was still under construction) but would have been the largest bridge in the country and the main link between Tehran and Karaj.

Analyst Comment: The Iranians are very likely to retaliate by hitting one (or several) critical bridges throughout the region, on the south side of the Persian Gulf. The King Fahd Bridge linking Bahrain with the mainland was already struck by the Iranians on the opening days of the war (when Saudi forces crossed the bridge to put down the Shia uprising/protests in Manama) so if they wanted to hit it again they've already demonstrated that they have the ability to do so.

Iraq: This morning the US State Department issued another travel alert, specifically warning that attacks may escalate over the next 24-48 hours.

Analyst Comment: This is probably in response to the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson by Kataib Hezbollah two days ago (who still remains missing in Baghdad) but also the deteriorating security situation nationwide, which is being compounded by various Iraqi militia groups beginning to mobilize against American forces in the region.

More strategically, the situation is Iraq has deteriorated to it's lowest point in years, and there is now a very real risk of some kind of insurgent uprising coming about, due to the opposing militant groups which have been stirred up by the situation in Iran. This will be an important situation to monitor over the next few weeks.

India: Following weeks of petroleum disruptions nationwide, the first oil tanker arrived in Vadinar overnight, completing India's resumption of purchasing crude oil from Iran, which was originally halted in 2019.

Analyst Comment: India had previously halted the purchase of Iranian oil due to American sanctions, but due to the war in the Middle East resulting in the US waiving oil export sanctions, India has resumed the purchase of oil from Iran. Indian media reports that the transaction was carried out in Chinese Yuan.

-HomeFront-

Georgia: Yesterday evening Colonial Pipeline's Line 1 was shut down after sustaining damage during drilling operations. The pipeline was shut down for several hours while repairs were conducted, and as of this morning Line 1 is fully functional.

Analyst Comment: While this incident was not the result of malign action and it was resolved quickly, this was still a big deal. This is the largest gasoline pipeline network in the United States, and provides the vast majority of gasoline to the east coast. Considering the recent volatility in the oil markets, this outage occurring right before a major holiday weekend for travel was exceptionally poor timing.

Washington D.C. - Several leadership changes have taken place this afternoon. Attorney General Pam Bondi has been relieved of her duties, with her Deputy Todd Blanche taking over her roles until a replacement is found. At the Pentagon, General Randy George was requested to take an early retirement, effective immediately, stepping down from his role as Army Chief of Staff.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: President Trump's address to the nation last night concluded without any major announcement of policy changes, and the speech was neither an announcement of the end of the war nor of any substantial increase of combat operations. Timeline wise, President Trump stated that the conflict will last 2-3 more weeks, though no official exit plan was conveyed.

More generally, speeches by political officials are not usually reflective of the tactical situation on the ground and as it stands right now, the raw information available to the public continues to indicate another surge of military hardware and resources into the Middle East. Yesterday CENTCOM published their list of assets deployed to support Operation Epic Fury, which included many resources which have recently arrived in theater, such as the EA-37B COMPASS CALL platform (which is used for electronic warfare). This platform arrived on station yesterday, having been observed at Mildenhall Air Base on her way to the Middle East two days ago. Aircraft movements such as this one (and others) continue to indicate that operations are ramping up...not down. National-level reconnaissance and EW assets being moved into theater at this point (conducting their first combat deployment a full month after the war began), is not an indicator of the war coming to a close.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.

Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.

Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.

In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.

Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".

Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:

General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace the head of their Army and several other high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.

As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 This week we take a step back to look at the grand strategy ahead for the war in the Middle East, as well as what lies ahead in terms of where the war is going. Escalations continue all around, and if we want to have a framework for understanding for how this can affect the homeland, we have to dig a little bit into the history of warfare doctrine, just in case things continue to get serious. Happy Easter everyone, Christ is Risen! https://youtu.be/zj6WfM9_3lQ

//The Wire//2300Z April 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RESCUE MISSION OF DOWNED AIRMAN CONDUCTED IN IRAN AS MAJOR ESCALATIONS OF THE WAR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. UNITED AIRLINES BEGINS CANCELING FLIGHTS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH COSTS OF AVIATION FUEL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Iran: A large scale rescue operation was conducted over the weekend with the goal of rescuing the Weapon Systems Officer (WSO) who ejected from the F-15 which was shot down over Isfahan on Friday. The pilot was rescued quickly that same day, however the WSO was unable to be recovered. A large-scale ad hoc bombing campaign was conducted throughout Saturday morning and afternoon, as airstrikes were used to protect the downed airman until dark. Due to how far the rescue operation had to be conducted behind the lines, two MC-130 aircraft were used to set up a makeshift Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP) at a small agricultural airfield. During the operation the two MC-130's were unable to take off (some reports from local Iranians indicate it may have been due to mud or sand), and another rescue team was deployed to the same FARP to rescue the rescuers. By sunrise on Sunday morning, everyone (including the downed airman) was off the ground and back within friendly airspace. After their departure, the MC-130's were destroyed via airstrike to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands intact.

Throughout the region, American bombing of targets within Iran intensified in the southwest over the weekend, as more assets were dedicated to supporting rescue operations. A handful of power plants and/or electrical substations were struck throughout Iran over the past few days as well. Iranian forces have continued to carry out attacks on American installations in Kuwait and the UAE, all of which have had some level of success.

France: Counterterrorism patrols have increased following multiple arrests in Paris, which resulted from an attempted IED attack last week. Over the weekend French officials stated that at total of 4x individuals had been arrested after attempting to conduct an explosive attack at the Bank of America building in Paris back on March 28th. Initially, three of the suspects (all juveniles) were arrested either at the scene or shortly after the incident. An additional suspect (an adult) was arrested over the weekend, who has admitted to recruiting the juveniles to carry out the attack, with himself also being a middleman and someone else providing the IED to him.

Analyst Comment: This attack failed due to the IED malfunctioning, and as a result the story did not get much traction in the media. The details provided by the fourth suspect reignited interest in the case, along with the strong indicator that the motive in this attack was terrorism (which came about after pro-Iranian terror groups claimed the attack). Considering the testimony from the adult who was arrested, it is very likely that this case is a continuation of the classic trend of a terrorist network being much larger than originally theorized.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Following a series of strange and concerning posts on social media, President Trump stated that the targeting of civilian energy infrastructure in Iran will begin on Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened to the United States.

USA: Around the nation, economic impacts of the war continue to be felt, as the average national gas price remains over $4.00 per gallon. Commercial airlines are also beginning to feel the impacts of the fuel crisis, with United Airlines canceling some lower-priority flights over the next few months due to the rising costs of jet fuel.

Analyst Comment: For additional context, United's CEO Scott Kirby stated that if fuel prices remained as they are right now, United would need to raise prices by $11 billion. According to Kirby, this is more than double the total revenue ever generated by United, which turned approximately $5 billion in profit during their best year.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Strategically, the war in Iran has become host to many pyrrhic victories. Rescuing the downed WSO in what was probably the most daring rescue mission of modern memory was a great success. However, with every success in this war comes a larger perspective. The United States lost 2x MC-130's, 3x MH-6 helicopters, and sustained damage to at least two HH-60 Pavehawks during the mission to recover the WSO.

To be clear, there was never any consideration of NOT conducting this mission; the United States would of course trade the loss of equipment to recover one man. This has been the standard ever since Vietnam, and there was never any question of not sacrificing some expensive planes if needed. However, this rescue mission provides critical combat data for how an invasion of Iran might go, if the decision is made to launch a ground invasion that begins with a Helicopter Assault Force (HAF). If an Air Assault is conducted into some location in Iran, the United States will probably face more significant resistance than is currently being expected.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 7, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MAJOR ATTACKS REPORTED AT SAUDI CHEMICAL FACILITIES. AMERICAN/ISRAELI FORCES TARGET SOUTH PARS FACILITY IN IRAN. TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN TURKEY. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE IN IRAN. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT WAREHOUSE IN CALIFORNIA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Iran: This morning widespread targeting of railway bridges began in earnest, along with petrochemical facilities which have been persistently struck over the past few days. This morning the South Pars Gas processing facility was struck again, resulting in large fires throughout the facility.

Saudi Arabia: Last night major Iranian strikes were reported at the Jubail Industrial Complex. Several fires were reported at the refinery itself, along with chemical production facilities to the southwest of the main facility. SABIC Chemical has indefinitely shut down all 26x manufacturing facilities within this industrial city as a result of the attacks.

Analyst Comment: This attack was a big deal as SABIC Chemical is a major producer of ethylene, polyethylene, caustic soda, benzene, and many other petrochemicals necessary for the production of plastics. The Jubail Industrial City complex produces roughly 7% of all of the petrochemicals on planet Earth, and the majority of this industrial zone is still on fire.

Bahrain: Vehicle traffic across the King Fahd bridge was suspended due to an expected counterattack from Iran, however after a few hours the bridge was re-opened. Sporadic closures of the bridge network have been reported over the past few days, usually in conjunction with drone sightings.

Strait of Hormuz: The chokepoint remains closed to American-aligned vessels, which was demonstrated overnight by two LNG carriers which attempted to make the crossing before eventually turning back.

Kuwait: Sentinel satellite imagery from this morning confirmed that American bases throughout the nation have continued to be targeted, with large structures at Camp Arifjan confirmed destroyed.

UAE: Fires (which are not the normally observed gas flaring operations) continue burning at several major oil refinery complexes following substantial Iranian attacks a few days ago. Buhasa Oil Refinery, Asab Degassing Station, and the Habshan Gas Processing Complex were all targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, with all of these facilities remaining offline or degraded due to damage sustained.

Persian Gulf: One merchant vessel was reportedly struck with an unknown munition in the vicinity of Kish Island this afternoon.

Turkey: A terror attack was reported at the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, after three gunmen conducted a small arms attack at the facility. Two police officers were wounded after the assailants initiated the attack by firing into the guard shack outside the facility. Due to the heavy police presence already on site, the attackers were neutralized quickly, with two being killed immediately and the third being severely wounded.

-HomeFront-

California: This morning a warehouse fire was reported at the industrial sector of Ontario in San Bernadino County. The fire rapidly became a 6-alarm structure fire as the warehouse was mostly serving as storage for paper products, which resulted in the structure being a total loss. Local authorities have stated that this fire is being considered to be an act of arson, and one person was arrested at the scene in conjunction with the investigation.

North Carolina: Details have come to light regarding two separate stabbing attacks that took place in Wilmington on Sunday morning. Authorities initially responded to a street fight on North Front Street, in the vicinity of bars and pubs which are normally host to social gatherings on the weekends. Shortly after the bars began to close around 2:00am, a street fight was reported, which resulted in a stabbing incident. A few moments later, a separate stabbing incident was also reported one block to the south, also on North Front Street.

Analyst Comment: Videos of the attack are circulating on social media, which don't add much context other than indicating these events were very kinetic and graphic. What caused the initial fight is unknown, however several people were severely wounded as a result of the attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This morning President Trump continued to reiterate the American stance on the war in Iran specifically, clearly, and deliberately stating that "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again". Just a few moments ago, President Trump posted a statement on social media, indicating that a ceasefire is in place for the next two weeks. As this statement was just issued, how this is going to work out remains unclear.

Considering the gravity of the statements that have been made over the past few days, the future remains uncertain. On the one hand, President Trump's statement alleging a ceasefire appears to be a de-escalation, but on the other hand the United States broke her own self-imposed moratorium on striking civilian targets several times over the past few days, so the world (but especially Lloyd's of London) are probably going to be hesitant to trust anything President Trump says.

Concerning the tactical situation on the ground, President Trump's earlier post on social media is probably going to result in an entire culture fighting to the last man (if it comes to it) because they think that their adversary seeks to eradicate their existence entirely. Using the most poignantly apt example of Japan during WW2, when an adversary is pushed into a corner, bad things happen on all sides. The same thing is happening right now throughout Iran, regardless of what President Trump posts on social media. Whether the ceasefire will break tradition and actually remain in place is anyone's guess, considering that no one's rhetoric is entirely trustworthy at this point. Airstrikes already began earlier today targeting bridges and logistical infrastructure around the country, so unless the situation changes drastically airstrikes are likely to continue throughout the night regardless of what (if any) diplomatic efforts are made.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CONTINUES. MERCHANT VESSELS HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AT LEAST ONE VESSEL TURNED AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CALIFORNIA ARSON SUSPECT IDENTIFIED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Iran: Overnight several attacks were conducted between Iran and Israel, with Israeli forces continuing their attacks throughout the evening. Separately, the oil refinery on Lavan Island was struck by the UAE, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on their oil fields yesterday.

Middle East: Iranian attacks continued as before, with an observable lull (but not complete halt) to attacks being observed after the ceasefire went into effect. In Kuwait, government officials confirmed that attacks continued, with 28x drones being intercepted by air defense systems. In the UAE, authorities likewise announced the interception of 17x ballistic missiles and 35x drones.

Lebanon: The war continues as before, with Israeli forces ordering the evacuation of areas north of the Litani River. Substantial airstrikes were reported throughout Beirut this afternoon as Israeli forces carry out their largest bombing campaign of the war.

-HomeFront-

California: The suspect in yesterday's arson attack at a warehouse in Ontario has been identified as Chamel Abdulkarim. The suspect was arrested at the scene after livestreaming himself setting fire to multiple pallets of paper products at this warehouse.

Analyst Comment: In the video posted to his social media page under his real name, Abdulkarim stated that the arson was conducted in order to destroy the inventory of the company that was not paying him enough. Abdulkarim was an employee of NFI Industries, a third-party distributor for Kimberly-Clark, who owned the warehouse.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Strait of Hormuz, much confusion remains regarding the exact details of what the ceasefire agreement actually means. A ceasefire is temporary, not a permanent settlement to a conflict, and this ceasefire has a two week suspension time. In 13 days, the war is scheduled to resume if an agreement cannot be reached, according to the statements made by both the United States and Iran. This ceasefire is also conditional on several points (which remain unclear) and the entire agreement depends on further negotiations.

Following the intensification of the conflict in Lebanon, Iran has linked their participation in the ceasefire to the fate of Lebanon (as in, the ceasefire is off if Israeli forces continue their advance in Lebanon). Concerning shipping throughout the Strait, this morning all commercial vessels transiting the Strait have continued to use the Larak Island tollbooth arrangement, and have only transited the waterway with Iranian permission. This afternoon one vessel, the M/T AUROURA attempted to transit the Strait, but turned around upon reaching the chokepoint. The reason for this turnaround is not known, however it is likely that Iranian forces are only allowing traffic through that has prior approval.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRAN CONFIRMS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, MERCHANT VESSELS REMAIN HESITANT TO TRANSIT STRAIT. ARMY DEPLOYED IN IRELAND TO CLEAR FUEL CRISIS PROTESTERS FROM ROADWAYS AS DEMONSTRATIONS SWEEP THE NATION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Around the region, missile and drone attacks in GCC states have ceased, with the UAE confirming that this was the first day where no munitions were fired at them from Iran. Last night Iranian forces effectively closed the Strait again, as indicated by recordings of radio transmissions from the Iranians warning tanker crews against attempting to transit the waterway without their permission.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning IRGC-N forces published a nautical chart outlining the area in the Strait where they have laid naval mines. The number of mines laid remains unknown, and this document is the first acknowledgement that minelaying operations have been carried out within the Strait.

Ireland: Over the past few days, protests related to the ongoing fuel crisis have been growing. These protests have largely taken the form of farmers and delivery drivers parking their vehicles on roadways and tram lines, to block the passage of other vehicles. This morning, Prime Minister Micheál Martin confirmed that the Irish Army is being deployed throughout the nation to remove the protesters vehicles from the roadways.

Analyst Comment: The fuel crisis in Ireland is a complicated endeavor and it's not entirely just about fuel costs at this point. Initially, protesters primarily have been demonstrating against rising fuel costs brought on by the war in the Middle East. A few days ago this escalated when protesters took the accelerationist approach, and blocked the entrance to Whitegate Refinery in Cork Harbor to make the price of fuel go even higher and thus make the issue everyone's problem. As a secondary result of blocking the entry/exit of vehicles from Ireland's only refinery, roughly 40% of Ireland's gasoline supply was cut off in an instant, and prices not only skyrocketed, but now the sheer supply itself is also running out. The tertiary effect of this effort has spiraled into a larger movement that is no longer solely about fuel costs, but also about general corruption and anti-government sentiments. This has in turn resulted in other protesters taking to the roadways around the country to stop traffic, and effectively compound all of the previous demonstration tactics, which has now resulted in the Army being called up to clear roadways and restore some sort of order.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: Yesterday the FBI arrested one former DoD civilian employee on charges of leaking classified information to a journalist. Courtney Williams (a former employee of U.S. Special Operations Command) was arrested after allegedly conveying classified material to Seth Harp for his book about alleged drug trafficking and criminal enterprises within JSOC. Williams appeared as a named source for some of the material in the piece, which allegedly included classified material.

Analyst Comments: Contradicting media reports on the topic, the press release for this arrest confirms that this has nothing to do with the current conflict in Iran. Many media sources are claiming that this individual was the person who leaked details of the F-15 which was shot down over Iran a few days ago, however this is blatantly false. The DoJ states that the leaks of classified information occurred between 2022 and 2025, and contained information that Williams had access to when she worked for a clandestine military unit between 2010 and 2016. The DoJ has not made any comment regarding any arrest made specifically in conjunction with the current war in Iran.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: At the moment, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. There is no US Navy presence to provide Freedom of Navigation, and the Iranians have threatened to destroy any vessel that attempts to pass without their permission. The potential confirmation of sea mines being laid in the Strait adds another complicating factor as if the Iranian's claims are true, someone is going to have to demine this region at some point. Doctrinally speaking, the chief concern with minefields is that even if no mines are laid, the accusation alone is enough to prevent anyone from entering the area until clearance operations have been conducted. Any vessel can be a minesweeper exactly one time, but most insurance companies are unlikely to support such endeavors for the vessels that they underwrite policies for. Conveniently, the safe route suggested by the IRGCN (to avoid the sea mines they have laid) takes commercial vessels through their waters via the Larak Island tollbooth route. So far, only a handful of vessels have transited the Strait, all of which used the Larak Island route and passed with Iranian permission.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS IN IRELAND CONTINUE TO GROW. AMERICAN LOGISTICAL FLIGHTS CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE EAST DURING CEASEFIRE. MARITIME TRAFFIC IN PERSIAN GULF REMAINS STAGNANT.//
 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The ceasefire remains tenuous. Last night Kuwait reported attacks being conducted by several drones. Statements of condemnation were issued by government officials attributing the attacks to Iran, however the Iranians claim that they haven't conducted any attack. Separately, American logistical resupply efforts continue, with a notable increase in military flights moving cargo into the Middle East. Merchant traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, with a total of 12x vessels (including local traffic) transiting the waterway since the ceasefire came into effect two days ago. This afternoon Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, indicated that the timeline for expecting the Strait of Hormuz to be fully opened is roughly two months.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Last night First Lady Melania Trump hosted a surprise press conference, in which she read a statement pertaining to the Jeffrey Epstein network. She confirmed that she had once emailed Ghislaine Maxwell, but denied that a relationship existed. She also called on Congress to act regarding the Epstein investigation, specifically via the testimony of victims against Epstein's network.

California: Early this morning the residence of Sam Altman (the CEO of OpenAI) was targeted by an arsonist who threw a Molotov device at the front gate of his residence. The suspect initially fled on foot but was arrested soon after the incident. The suspect has not yet been identified.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Ireland, protests continue as before nationwide with most major roadways remaining shut down sporadically for a few hours each day due to protests. Whitegate Refinery remains a main focal point for protests which have become substantial in size. However, under the surface of the protests, tensions are bubbling and in Ireland no political issue is ever as simple as it seems at face value. One complicating factor which has contributed to the growing civil unrest has been statements made by Ireland's Deputy Police Commissioner Shawna Coxon, who has been the face of the police response to the demonstrations. Her statements themselves have been fairly standard by European standards, threatening all number of consequences for the protesters if they don't open up roadways.

However, one delicate contention that isn't being conveyed by the media is not necessarily what is being said, but who is saying it. Coxon herself is not Irish...she's Canadian. Having built up a policing career in Toronto under Trudeau's government, she was instrumental in the now infamous crackdown on Canadian truckers years ago, who protested for different reasons but formed similar networks as the Irish are now forming. Now, she's the Deputy Police Commissioner for Operations in Ireland. Considering that a huge part of these protests is now becoming more of an Irish nationalism effort, what seems like a very small detail is actually becoming more important. A Canadian (who does not have an Irish accent) with a degree in mass surveillance wielding power over ethnic Irishmen is not being taken very well. As a result, what started as a small protest about taxes on agricultural diesel is becoming a much more widespread series of issues. Considering that as of this afternoon no progress has been made to address the concerns of demonstrators, this could lead to a much more substantial state of unrest over the next few days.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//