Within the Intelligence Community, official assessments are often centered around who's the loudest, and not necessarily who's right. Opinions on China have largely been a knife-fight within the IC for a while now, and the DNI report might reflect a change of heart on the Taiwan issue. For years, the loudest voices have been that China was planning a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which is still a very solid theory. The DNI's report is surprising for very nuanced reasons: This report acknowledges that there is another possible theory, and that the alternative (the peaceful economic takeover) is actually most likely. Either way, the war in the Middle East has complicated the situation, and however that conflict works out will determine how much political influence the Chinese have in their quest to expand their regional dominance. China's strategy with Taiwan is essentially "do nothing, win" and now that another hot shooting war is underway in the Middle East, the Chinese are very unlikely to interrupt their enemy when they are making a mistake.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/NOHHLIBq9FY

//The Wire//2300Z March 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUES 48 HOUR ULTIMATUM FOR IRAN TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BEFORE CHANGING STANCE AND IMPLEMENTING 5 DAY CEASEFIRE. MAJOR AVIATION INCIDENT REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA. MULTIPLE IEDS DISCOVERED IN MARYLAND PARK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Over the weekend the situation deteriorated significantly, with the war heating up on many fronts. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran for them to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the United States will destroy their civilian power plants. This morning, President Trump stated that "productive conversations" had been conducted with Iranian officials, and that the US has emplaced a 5-day halt on the bombing campaign throughout Iran.

Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that they "cannot confirm" various details of the strike, or that the missiles were fired by Iran. This statement came two days after the Iranians denied responsibility for the attack, stating that they did not launch any missiles at Diego Garcia.

Analyst Comment: Whatever the truth is, it can't be independently confirmed due to the nature of the targeting effort occurring in space, outside with realm of eyewitnesses. Either way, it must be noted for posterity that NATO has expressed uncertainty regarding what missile it might have been, and the Iranians are denying that it was them.

Israel: As the war continues, Iranian forces conducted two major retaliatory strikes over the weekend. The first ballistic missile attack occurred a few miles from the Israeli Dimona nuclear facility, with the warhead landing in a heavily urbanized area near where Israeli scientists are known to live. Separately, another Iranian missile targeted the city of Arad, which resulted in a mass casualty event.

Analyst Comment: The Dimona strike was significant as the munition itself appeared to have demonstrated some means of maneuverability in the terminal stages of it's flight, which allowed the warhead to evade missile defenses. If this was intentional, this is more evidence that the Iranians are shifting to their better missiles, which have more capability. Additionally, the response to these strikes signals a shift in Israeli perspective on the war. Previously, Israel has cracked down hard on all media regarding successful Iranian strikes, with footage and geolocation of any successful impacts being extremely hard to come by. With these strikes however, the media lockdown has been lifted, with PM Netanyahu himself visited both sites and conducting media briefings at the impact craters. The reasons for this change of policy are anyone's guess, but it is significant enough to be aware of.

United Kingdom: Over the weekend an arson attack was reported at a Synagogue in Golder's Green, which involved unknown assailants setting multiple private ambulances on fire in the parking area adjacent to the facility.

Analyst Comment: These ambulances were being parked at the Synagogue, but they actually belong to Hatzola Northwest, a private ambulance service for the local area. In any case, video surveillance of Heighfield Road is substantial and there are no less than eight high-resolution security cameras which would have caught the attackers setting these ambulances on fire, so they'll probably be caught very soon.

-HomeFront-

Maryland: Sunday afternoon, local authorities responded to reports of multiple suspicious packages within Fort Washington Park. U.S. Park Police responded to the reports, which resulted in the discovery of 5x Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) of pipe-bomb-type construction. The park was closed as the Prince George County Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team rendered the devices safe. No word yet on who placed the devices or if they were viable explosives.

New York: Last night a major incident was reported at LaGuardia Airport after Air Canada 8646 collided with a firetruck that was crossing the runway as the plane was landing. Both the pilot and copilot were killed during the impact, and several others were severely injured. The crew of the firetruck that was hit survived the impact with broken bones. LaGuardia remains closed while the debris is investigated and recovered.

Analyst Comment: The investigation will take some time to confirm, but as with all aviation mishaps this disaster appears to be a result of multiple factors. The fire truck (Truck 1) was responding to reports of a strange odor onboard another aircraft (United 2384), so the night was already incredibly busy. In the fray of the active emergency declaration underway, ATC gave permission for the firetruck to across an active runway, seeming to forget about the Air Canada flight that had just touched down, which resulted in the aircraft colliding with the firetruck on the runway.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Messaging regarding the war in Iran has become so variable, it's challenging to determine what is actually happening. Simply put, Trump's post on social media sounds a lot like searching for an offramp in the manner of conceding to a ceasefire, without saying the word "ceasefire". Right now, it's certainly possible that the US has quietly agreed to an informal ceasefire, based on the terms of Iran allowing vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a 5-day cessation of American bombing. On the other side, Iranian state media claims that Trump's statement is false, and that they withdrew from talks entirely after he threatened to bomb their civilian power plants. Specifically, Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that not only are talks not being conducted, but they aren't even speaking to the US indirectly through intermediaries.

Otherwise, actions speak louder than words. And on that front strategic movement involving military cargo flights has increased over the past few days, with the United States stepping up logistical efforts to move cargo into the Middle East. The US is moving stuff into the region at breakneck pace, and right now this looks like a deliberate staging of resources for a major offensive. While purely speculative, it is possible that what is being touted as a gracious halt to bombing is actually the result of a shortage of munitions, which need to be topped up before another major offensive action, so at the moment the most likely theory regarding this "quasi-ceasefire" is that this is an attempt to pump the brakes on the rapidly spiraling economic situation, while at the same time rearming and refitting. For context, this 5-day halt to bombing expires on Friday...just after markets close for the weekend.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.

Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.

Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z March 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR ESCALATES AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS ISRAEL AND IRAN BEGIN MORE ROUTINE TARGETING OF EACH OTHERS NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. MULTIPLE FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED IN BAGHDAD. US ARMY RAISES ENLISTMENT AGE TO 42 FOR NEW RECRUITS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Multiple escalations of the conflict took place overnight. Following Israeli/American bombing yesterday, Iranian forces retaliated by striking multiple US bases/positions in Kuwait. In Israel, strikes were also reported at the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Hadera, however the munition appears to have missed the generation facilities by a narrow margin. Another Iranian strike targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport overnight, and similar strikes were reported in Tel Aviv which resulted in unknown damage.

Iraq: Multiple significant events occurred overnight as the PMF begins more deliberate offensive operations. Yesterday morning, the United States conducted airstrikes at the personal residences of PMF leadership in Al Habbaniya. This strike killed Saad Al Baiji (an operations chief), and subsequently resulted in an intensification of targeting efforts on American positions throughout Baghdad. As a result of this targeting of PMF leadership, Iraqi Prime ​Minister ‌Mohammed ⁠Shia Al Sudani has authorized PMF militia groups to retaliate against American forces.

Analyst Comment: This is a major escalation that could effectively open up another front in the war. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are a semi-autonomous, highly-organized militia group that serves as one of Iran's major proxy groups outside their own borders. Technically, they are linked to the Iraqi government, but in practice they mostly just do what they want while being supplied by the Iranians. The official Iraqi government stating that they will let them off leash (while not entirely surprising) is in effect a return to GWOT era, but this time the Iraqi government is openly endorsing their attacks on Americans. So in effect, battle lines are being drawn and the Iraqis are now taking the side of Iran. Depending on how kinetic PMF operations become, American forces may face more contested airspace over not just Iran, but Iraq as well.

Otherwise, this week has witnessed an escalation of the war as FPV drone attacks have become more commonly carried out at Camp Victory by insurgents targeting American forces. In a video released yesterday evening, one HH-60M helicopter was targeted, along with a Sentinel radar array.

Analyst Comment: The success of these attacks is not known, but the Iraqi militias conducting these attacks have significantly improved their targeting efforts with lessons learned from Ukraine, or probably more accurately...Russia. One of the FPV drones recorded the other drone attacking the radar site, before flying off to find another target. However, while searching for other targets of opportunity, the idiots accidentally targeted a MEDEVAC helicopter, which is evidenced by the video being edited to blur out the giant Red Cross painted on the side of the aircraft. After reviewing the tape, the militia group probably realized that makes them look bad, so they blurred the footage themselves.

Kuwait: Civil Defense authorities have begun producing informational videos for the general public, regarding what to do in the event of a nuclear incident at a power plant in a neighboring country, such as if Israeli/American forces were to target the active reactor building at Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

Analyst Comment: All eyes are on Bushehr. The Israelis dropped munitions in the parking lot a few days ago, probably as a warning, but in retaliation the Iranians hit the residential buildings housing scientists at Dimona yesterday, and this morning they hit an unknown target immediately adjacent to the Hadera plant. In response to this, the IAEA said that the Israeli's hit Bushehr again last night, with unknown impacts. As a result of these constantly rising threats when it comes to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, most GCC states are now actively assuming that this facility will be struck within the next few days, which will probably result in a release of radioactive material.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the Pentagon published the newest changes to the Regular Army and Reserve Components Enlistment Program. These changes raise the maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42, and also removed the need for a waiver for recruits who have a prior marijuana conviction.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This decision was probably made some time ago, but is now just coming into effect, due to the long-term effects of poor recruiting efforts over the years. Turns out, the reports of recruiting goals being met were probably inaccurate, and increasing the enlistment age window by a substantial margin is interesting, although most of the other services already had an age limit of 42 years for enlistment. So in effect this is probably just an administrative, pencil-whipped policy.

However, this policy change coming about right now, during a time of war, is certainly a case of exceptionally poor timing. In wartime everyone defaults to the worst-case scenario. Even if this was a benign policy decision, in the context of this coming to light in the same week that the 82nd Airborne is being deployed to the Middle East...most people will think this is not exactly a good omen, and there's no real way to smooth things out when the Pentagon is not really interested in alleviating concerns themselves.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.

Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.

The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.

Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.

Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS SHIPPING COMPANIES MAKE DEALS WITH IRAN. WAR IN LEBANON REMAINS INTENSE AS IDF NEARS LITANI ON THE EASTERN FRONT. AIRSTRIKES REPORTED AT TWO IRANIAN URANIUM PRODUCTION FACILITIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Offensive actions and targeting efforts by all sides were temporarily degraded last night as a major storm system descended on the region. A supercell storm system similar to a cyclone descended on the UAE last night, with severe flooding and high winds being reported throughout Dubai.

After the weather cleared, major Iranian targeting efforts were reported throughout the region. Port facilitates were struck in Kuwait, and a large fire was observed at the parking apron used by American aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, with the smoke plume being visible on Sentinel satellite imagery from this morning.

Iran: This morning American/Israeli forces struck multiple nuclear production facilities. The Arak Heavy Water Facility (which was struck years ago) was struck again this morning, and the Yellowcake Refinery in Ardakan was also struck.

Analyst Comment: The risk of radiological release at either facility is low, as Arak was not functional and Ardakan was not host to enriched Uranium itself. However, monitoring will continue as radioactive dust is likely to contaminate the local area to some degree, and time will tell how these threats develop as the strikes continue.

Lebanon: Israeli forces continue their advance north toward the Litani River, as FPV drone attacks by Hezbollah become more significant. Two drone attacks on Israeli armored columns were reported last night, along the eastern axis of advance. Israeli forces along the eastern front have made the most progress toward the river, with IDF units being observed in the town of Taybeh this morning.

Analyst Comment: Hezbollah's media group claims that a total of 21 Merkava tanks have been destroyed so far this campaign, however as always these numbers are usually overinflated. Concerning tank casualties, it's incredibly difficult to tell from a video clip if a vehicle was actually penetrated or not, and most of the clips provided by Hezbollah conveniently cut away before the tank's Trophy countermeasure system is activated. This means that counting destroyed/disabled tanks is mostly a wash. However, from the clips and reports on the ground, this is not an easy fight for the Israelis either. Anti-Tank Guided Missile attacks are a mainstay of Hezbollah, and these attacks have been effective in making the Israeli advance more costly than expected.

-HomeFront-

Iowa: Last night a major egg farm burned down in Corwith. The Hawkeye Pride egg production facility caught fire shortly after 6:00pm yesterday evening, which resulted in significant damage to the egg farm. Hawkeye Pride is one of the largest cage-free egg producers in the United States, and the extent of the damage to the henhouses has not yet been determined.

California: Yesterday evening a blackout was reported in Orange County, mostly affecting the areas of Carlsbad and Encinitas, as well as areas south of Escondido. The cause of the electrical outage has not yet been reported, but services were mostly restored for many customers by sunrise.

Florida: Following up on the recent IED threat to MacDill Air Force Base, two individuals have been identified as the culprits of the attack. Ann Mary Zheng and her brother Alen Zheng (both Chinese nationals) have been indicted on charges of emplacing the IED at the visitor's center on March 10th before it was discovered by authorities on March 16th. Mary Zheng was arrested on Wednesday after returning to the United States, while her brother remains in China.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Many nationstates have made their deals with the Iranians to allow their shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, however due to the complex nature of a war being undertaken throughout the region, it's still a tenuous journey for commercial companies. Cargo is beginning to flow to China, Japan, and India but the volume of shipping through the Strait remains severely below normal levels. Iranian targeting efforts have proven to be effective, and vessels are not transiting the Strait at all, without prior coordination with Iranian officials, which schedule vessels to transit to Larak Island for inspection, before continuing through the Strait.

At the current rate, the handful of ships that make it through each day are not nearly enough to stop very serious things from happening. Complex systems are beginning to be impacted quite significantly now that the war in the Middle East (and the subsequent halt to maritime traffic throughout the region) has been going on for one month. Diesel rationing is well underway in some parts of Australia, and limited unrest has been reported throughout Southeast Asia as gasoline shortages spread throughout the region. Just as with the start of the war in Ukraine, it will probably take several more months for international markets and supply chains to settle in to some sort of reliability. However since this conflict involves a major maritime choke point, it's very likely that even though many nations are attempting to re-route supply chains as best they can, disruptions are likely to continue for a while.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at how the multiple wars are going on overseas; from Scandinavia to Indochina, things are heating up as the Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars complicate life for most of us here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/ShvEdsULxpw

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.

Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.

Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.

Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.

Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.

This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.

This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan.

In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T *AL SALMI* was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel.

Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues.

Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks.

Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks.

-HomeFront-

USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly".

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck.

However, in going through this process, the world eventually finds out what targets were on that list. And right now, a month after the war began, the targets that are being struck are probably an indicator of what is being planned for. As an example, the US completely leveled the entire headquarters for the 33rd and the 44th Artillery Groups, which included dozens of impact craters being observed on satellite imagery in the boneyard of old artillery pieces that have been in this same location since the Iran-Iraq War. These field artillery units, while certainly valid military targets in a declared state of Armed Conflict, aren't exactly a high priority for meeting the strategic objectives conveyed by the White House. These artillery pieces, however, would have been of great use for defending against forces on the ground.

As at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne arrives in CENTCOM to supplement the two MEU's already on station, many are speculating on the potential for a US ground invasion of Iran. This is debatable to the point that many people believe such a possibility is unthinkable, and the rhetoric of the war winding down any day now has been a constant factor for consideration. However, this rhetoric is not reflected by the raw information available at the present moment concerning the situation on the ground. Operations so far indicate that if a ground invasion were on the menu, the targets that are being struck right now are the exact sites that would need to be struck for any ground combat element to have any chance of success at all. Nevertheless, aside from the forward deployment of troops to the region, many more boxes must be checked before any ground operation would be feasible.

Most military doctrine dictates that "the defensive form of warfare is stronger than the offense" (Clausewitz), which makes the task ahead much more difficult since the most effective way to conduct littoral operations in a contested environment is to effectively disrupt the enemy's kill-chain (i.e. their own manner of identifying and prosecuting their own targets) BEFORE operations are conducted within the enemy's weapons engagement zone (WEZ). Conducting operations within the WEZ is an expectation of the Marine forces currently deployed, as this mission set is their bread and butter. However, at this point, that kill-chain has not been disrupted to a sufficient degree, and Iranian forces routinely conduct over-the-horizon targeting capability. So in short, it may be some time before even the most basic ground operation will be feasible under current military doctrine. However, the textbook can always be disregarded at any point, and decision-makers are going to do whatever they so choose.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC AIRLIFT OF AMERICAN GROUND ATTACK AIRCRAFT TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES. AUSTRALIA MOVES TO NEXT STEP OF FUEL CRISIS PLAN. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING OF MERCHANT VESSELS IN PERSIAN GULF.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

United Kingdom: Strategic movement of US military assets continues as ground attack aircraft continue their transit to the Middle East. A total of 18x A-10C Thunderbolt II (Warthog) aircraft were observed at RAF Lakenheath on a temporary stop during movement into the CENTCOM area of responsibility. 6x more F-22 Raptor's were also observed arriving around the same time, which supplement the increase in cargo aircraft heading to the Middle East over the past few days.

Middle East: Iranian attacks on commercial shipping continue, as another vessel (M/T AQUA 1) was struck by two projectiles off the coast of Qatar last night. This morning, Iranian forces hit the headquarters for Batelco in Bahrain, a major telecommunications company which hosts several Amazon Web Services (AWS) server farms at this location. Fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were also hit again this morning, as Iranian forces continue to strike the tanks which were not destroyed in the first wave of attacks at the start of the war.

Australia: Last night PM Albanese addressed the nation with regards to the growing energy crisis around the nation. Australia has transitioned into Stage 2 of their newly-announced National Fuel Security Plan, which mostly involves removing or reducing taxes on fuel as prices remain extremely high due to the tightening of availability. The next step (if so required) will involve more targeted action to conserve fuel resources.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Tonight at 9:00pm (EST) President Trump is scheduled to address the nation with regards to the war in Iran. This follows the earlier address by PM Albanese of Australia and PM Starmer of the United Kingdom, who all have conducted addresses to their nations today, both of which focused on rising costs resulting from the war.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, as the potential expansion of American combat operations looms, other indications are stacking up suggesting a more global involvement. Last night the Chechens announced that they are preparing to deploy to Iran in the event of a US invasion. While this almost certainly more of a propaganda effort than a serious endeavor, the potential involvement of mercenaries that have the backing of a superpower is still a factor for operational planning. Similarly, the Russians are claiming to have killed Anatolii Onyshchuk, one of the drone warfare advisors allegedly sent to Dubai to assist with efforts to coordinate more effective anti-drone countermeasures. Whether or not this is true is hard to verify with absolute certainty, however Ukrainian advisors have publicly been deployed to Dubai to liaise on matters of drone warfare.

While these details are fairly minor, these developments highlight the fact that this war is not just a proxy war being fought by the United States...other nations are also involved as well. The Russians helping the Iranians to kill Ukrainian advisors in Dubai, while an interesting turn of events, is still an expected development that continues to stress the wide-scale nature of the wars being fought around the world. Regardless of how this war has worked out so far, the operational planning for what comes next will likely need to focus on not just the potential nuts and bolts of the Iranian defenses, but also the involvement of the rest of the world as well. Many adversaries of the United States seek to capitalize on any American mistakes in the region, and as a result everyone from armed factions in the Middle East, to Asian trade partners jaded by their treatment during the tariff scandals from a few months ago, will all attempt to settle old scores by making American endeavors in the region much more difficult than they otherwise would have been. Whether the war ends today...or escalates tomorrow...things will not be getting any easier anytime soon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: COLONIAL PIPELINE SHUT DOWN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AFTER SUSTAINING DAMAGE IN GEORGIA. STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS UNITED STATES BEGINS TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN IRAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: American targeting within Iran continues as Iranian forces continue to hit U.S. bases throughout the region. American bases in Kuwait have been hammered over the past few days, with ballistic missile strikes being reported at Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase. Within Iran, this morning the United States began more deliberate attacks on infrastructure which are not solely military targets. The B1 bridge west of Tehran was destroyed, which was not yet opened (it was still under construction) but would have been the largest bridge in the country and the main link between Tehran and Karaj.

Analyst Comment: The Iranians are very likely to retaliate by hitting one (or several) critical bridges throughout the region, on the south side of the Persian Gulf. The King Fahd Bridge linking Bahrain with the mainland was already struck by the Iranians on the opening days of the war (when Saudi forces crossed the bridge to put down the Shia uprising/protests in Manama) so if they wanted to hit it again they've already demonstrated that they have the ability to do so.

Iraq: This morning the US State Department issued another travel alert, specifically warning that attacks may escalate over the next 24-48 hours.

Analyst Comment: This is probably in response to the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson by Kataib Hezbollah two days ago (who still remains missing in Baghdad) but also the deteriorating security situation nationwide, which is being compounded by various Iraqi militia groups beginning to mobilize against American forces in the region.

More strategically, the situation is Iraq has deteriorated to it's lowest point in years, and there is now a very real risk of some kind of insurgent uprising coming about, due to the opposing militant groups which have been stirred up by the situation in Iran. This will be an important situation to monitor over the next few weeks.

India: Following weeks of petroleum disruptions nationwide, the first oil tanker arrived in Vadinar overnight, completing India's resumption of purchasing crude oil from Iran, which was originally halted in 2019.

Analyst Comment: India had previously halted the purchase of Iranian oil due to American sanctions, but due to the war in the Middle East resulting in the US waiving oil export sanctions, India has resumed the purchase of oil from Iran. Indian media reports that the transaction was carried out in Chinese Yuan.

-HomeFront-

Georgia: Yesterday evening Colonial Pipeline's Line 1 was shut down after sustaining damage during drilling operations. The pipeline was shut down for several hours while repairs were conducted, and as of this morning Line 1 is fully functional.

Analyst Comment: While this incident was not the result of malign action and it was resolved quickly, this was still a big deal. This is the largest gasoline pipeline network in the United States, and provides the vast majority of gasoline to the east coast. Considering the recent volatility in the oil markets, this outage occurring right before a major holiday weekend for travel was exceptionally poor timing.

Washington D.C. - Several leadership changes have taken place this afternoon. Attorney General Pam Bondi has been relieved of her duties, with her Deputy Todd Blanche taking over her roles until a replacement is found. At the Pentagon, General Randy George was requested to take an early retirement, effective immediately, stepping down from his role as Army Chief of Staff.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: President Trump's address to the nation last night concluded without any major announcement of policy changes, and the speech was neither an announcement of the end of the war nor of any substantial increase of combat operations. Timeline wise, President Trump stated that the conflict will last 2-3 more weeks, though no official exit plan was conveyed.

More generally, speeches by political officials are not usually reflective of the tactical situation on the ground and as it stands right now, the raw information available to the public continues to indicate another surge of military hardware and resources into the Middle East. Yesterday CENTCOM published their list of assets deployed to support Operation Epic Fury, which included many resources which have recently arrived in theater, such as the EA-37B COMPASS CALL platform (which is used for electronic warfare). This platform arrived on station yesterday, having been observed at Mildenhall Air Base on her way to the Middle East two days ago. Aircraft movements such as this one (and others) continue to indicate that operations are ramping up...not down. National-level reconnaissance and EW assets being moved into theater at this point (conducting their first combat deployment a full month after the war began), is not an indicator of the war coming to a close.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.

Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.

Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.

In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.

Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".

Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:

General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace the head of their Army and several other high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.

As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//