//The Wire//2300Z March 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN STRIKES AND AMERICAN BOMBINGS REMAIN CONSTANT AS GULF STATES MORE OPENLY CENSOR DAMAGE REPORTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Over the weekend Iranian strikes on Dubai have continued, with the fuel point at the airport being hit early this morning. The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE was also hit, and burned throughout the day. American positions in Baghdad have also been under constant attack over the past few days, to include the first documented operational use of an FPV drone for an attack, which was conducted at Camp Victory a few days ago by pro-Iran militias in and around the capital region. Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait was hit again overnight, with the Italians reporting one of their hangars (and the MQ-9 housed within) being destroyed.

-HomeFront-

California: Last night a shooting was reported at a Spring Break event in Santa Monica. Two people were wounded during the shooting, both of which suffered non-life-threatening wounds. The suspect was identified as Jaysawn Williams, who was arrested after being wounded in the attack.

Analyst Comment: Despite initial media reports implying terrorism, right now this shooting looks like a gang shooting, rather than a more deliberate attack. However the investigation continues, and more details are expected as victim testimony becomes more public.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has shifted into the phase where numbers alone do not accurately convey the situation. Perhaps this was never the case, however at this point, describing the number of bombs dropped and drones launched is not exactly representative of how the war is going.

For example, if the reports by various nations in the Middle East are accurate (which at this point is not a guarantee) the total number of drone and missile attacks by Iran has decreased. According to the UAE (which has been caught manipulating their data), only 6 drones attacks were reported last night...but the effectiveness of these strikes has sharply increased. That "6 drone" figure might be misleading or it may be ignoring the Iranian strikes that were successful. Either way, at least two drone strikes were incredibly effective last night, with one direct hit being reported on the fuel point at the Dubai airport, and another at the Fujairah Oil complex. At the northern end of the Persian Gulf, at least the Kuwaitis are being honest about their failed interceptions, with their latest report admitting that of the four drones launched at their nation last night, they only intercepted one.

Considering this development, two polar opposite analytical positions can easily be arrived at, depending on how one reads the raw data. It's possible that the Iranians are decreasing the numbers of drones launched because they are running out or American targeting has been effective. Or, one can surmise that the Iranians are now able to conserve their resources, because they now have their targets dialed in and their Command and Control (C2) systems have now recovered from the decapitation strikes that started the war.

Either theory will be largely opinion based, as the intelligence gaps regarding the war are very significant at this point. In war, nothing is certain, and right now all sides are attempting to over-estimate their gains, and downplay their losses. As unfortunate as it may be to observe, in a war where the grand strategy of all belligerents is based on hubris, the scale often tips in favor of the defender, or at least the fight for the attacker becomes much harder than it otherwise would have been. This would be wise to consider as the war enters it's third week, and neither American bases in the region nor the merchant vessels in the Strait appear to be granted any reprieve anytime soon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days.

-HomeFront-

Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal.

Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home.

Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events.

Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDS THE JONES ACT AS PETROLEUM INDUSTRY FEELS EFFECTS OF WAR IN IRAN. CONFLICT IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS ISRAELI FORCES INCREASE TARGETING EFFORTS IN LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with multiple attacks on American military bases occurring overnight. The American Embassy in Baghdad has been persistently targeted over the past few days, with one drone strike being reported last night, which resulted in unknown damage. Other coalition positions were struck as well, with Australia reporting successful Iranian targeting efforts at Al Minhad Airbase in the UAE. No casualties were reported by the Australians regarding this attack. Within Iran, Israel/American forces struck the South Pars Natural Gas Facility, one of the largest LNG facilities in the world.

Analyst Comment: Following this strike, several GCC states have condemned the action, as destroying infrastructure like this is a major escalation that indicates the nature of the war is more unrestricted, but also because the gas fields serviced by this facility are decently close to the Qatari's own gas fields.

Lebanon: The war has intensified over the past few days as Hezbollah and Israeli forces have continued fighting along the main axis of advance in the east. Throughout Lebanon (to include downtown Beirut) the Israeli bombing campaign continues, with Hezbollah forces remaining effective in targeting Tel Aviv with guided rockets and cruise missiles.

-HomeFront-

New Mexico: Yesterday afternoon a shooting was reported at Holloman Air Force Base, which resulted in one individual being killed and one other wounded at the base shopette. No other details have been provided on this shooting, and the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Washington, several items of note have been ongoing in the political realm, while attention has been focused on Iran. As one might expect, kicking off a war in the Middle East was expected to (and did) have secondary and tertiary effects. One of the immediate effects of this war has been found in the Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) industry, which has experienced wildly fluctuating markets since the war began. This morning the average national gas price rose to $3.84 per gallon, which prompted the White House to implement their previously discussed tactic of suspending the Jones Act as an emergency means to bring prices down in the short term.

For context, the Jones Act was implemented shortly after WW1 as a national security measure, to mandate that all goods that transit between American ports, must be transported using American ships with American crews. The general idea being that in the event of war, the maritime trade industry would need to remain effective...it wouldn't be super great for war to break out, and all of the merchant ships that keep the American economy afloat, were to sail back home. The American economy could be crippled without a shot being fired, solely by private companies in the US being allowed to use cheap foreign labor that is not loyal to the United States. In 1920 when the law was passed, the thought process was that companies might take advantage of the freedoms that America provides, to the legitimate detriment of national security. As a result, the Jones Act was a law intended to (somewhat begrudgingly) meddle in the free market, with the purpose of not allowing domestic American companies to rely on logistical infrastructure that isn't American and thus would be a vulnerability in war.

As of this morning President Trump suspended this law in it's entirety for the next 60 days, with the White House's logic being that removing regulations will make shipping costs go down, as the free market of ships could carry cargo, and thus save some costs somewhere down the line, which could be passed on to consumers. The effectiveness of this tactic will be proven in due time; most maritime agencies don't think it will do much, as it's unlikely for costs to be passed on to consumers for one, and secondly this is really just a last-ditch measure to throw any potential theoretical solution out, so as to find a way to drop gas prices by even just a few cents, which the White House is desperate to do at this point. Either way, this Jones Act waiver is in place for the next 60 days. Going out on a limb just a bit, 60 day waivers are not usually issued for wars that are supposed to be over within a "few weeks", so this somewhat boilerplate policy decision may be an inadvertent indicator for how long this war is planned to last.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO ESCALATE DAILY, AS IRANIAN TARGETING INCREASES IN SCOPE AND EFFECTIVENESS. GCC STATES VOICE GROWING CONCERNS REGARDING ATTACKS ON OIL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE. PENTAGON REQUESTS $200 BILLION BUDGET INCREASE TO CONTINUE WAR.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Iranian targeting efforts have continued to become more effective over the past few days. Drone and missile attacks have been increasing since the war began, with strikes being reported at most US military installations around the region daily. Oil infrastructure has also been targeted in GCC states that have been allowing American forces to launch HIMARS missiles at Iran.

Iran: Within the mainland, satellite imagery from yesterday confirmed that Israeli/American forces struck a target at the Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Imagery provided by Airbus indicates at least one impact crater roughly 350 meters from the Bushehr 1 Reactor. Shortly after the attack, Kuwaiti state media broadcast an announcement from the Kuwaiti National Guard stating that radiation levels after the strike were reported to be normal. The Qataris made similar announcements of normal radiation readings this afternoon.

Israel: Within Israel, Iranian targeting remains constant as well, with drone and missile attacks being reported regularly throughout the nation. Yesterday Ben Gurion Airport was hit, with several aircraft burning on the tarmac. The port of Haifa has been hit continually since the war began, and over the past few days more footage has made it to social media depicting the damage, as another substantial missile strike took place last night.

Analyst Comment: Continuing long-standing national defense policy, it is nearly impossible to determine where strikes are happening within Israel, as this information is tightly controlled by the Israeli government. Livestreaming cameras and traffic cams have been destroyed by the military throughout most of the country, so the intelligence gap of how bad things are in Tel Aviv is quite substantial at this point.

Saudi Arabia: Last night, an Iranian strike was reported at the Samarra Oil Refinery complex in Yanbu, on the Red Sea coast. This strike resulted in unknown damage, but the fires started by the strike were detected via satellite.

-HomeFront-

Delaware - Yesterday evening President Trump attended the dignified transfer of the airmen killed in the crash of the KC-135 in western Iraq. No media was allowed to cover the event, with the White House photographer only providing a few images of the transfer.

Analyst Comment: This is not the first time that media have been blocked from such an event; Dick Cheney instituted this as a blanket policy in 1991, and this became more heavily enforced starting in approximately 2003-2009, during the height of the GWOT. It is unclear as to if the White House will be re-instituting this policy, or if this was a one-time ban.

Washington D.C. - This morning the Pentagon requested the approval of a $200 billion defense package to supplement the War Department's budget, for the continuation of the war in the Middle East.

Analyst Comment: For perspective on how much money this is, as of right now, the United States taxpayer has sent a grand total of $175 billion in military aid to Ukraine, since the start of that war in 2022. As a result, the Pentagon casually requesting a check from the taxpayer greater than that which has been spent to date in Ukraine is going to be a hard pill to swallow.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The strike on the oil refinery in Saudi Arabia is not like the others, and this specific refinery was probably targeted for two reasons. For one, this is the facility that is the end-of-the-line for the Saudi East-West Pipeline that is helping to alleviate some of the constraint on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have proven that they have the ability to not just impact the primary means of oil transport in the Persian Gulf, but also the secondary backup measures that involve the pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The second reason that this specific attack was carried out is due to an American base being quietly set up just a few miles to the north last year.

While the effectiveness of this strike will be debated, something is still on fire at this facility as of this morning, which is not the gas flaring that is normally witnessed at refineries. Additionally, with the exception of the strikes on Israel, this is the longest range attack conducted so far during this conflict. This is yet another indicator that the Iranians are not only able to survive, but carry out increasingly more complicated and difficult targeting efforts.

Similarly, Qatari officials have voiced outrage at the continuation of the war, stating that roughly 17% of their entire natural gas production capability has been completely destroyed, and that even if the war stops right now, it will take a minimum of three to five years to return to baseline capacity. Saad ​al-Kaabi, the CEO of QatarEnergy stated that $20 billion worth of damage has been done to their array of units, which originally cost about $26 billion to build in the first place.

This morning, statements by the United States have not exactly alleviated concerns, as President Trump responded to the recent targeting efforts at the South Pars Natural Gas Facility. In his post on social media, he claimed that Israel acted unilaterally "out of anger" in striking this facility, and that if Iran attempts to respond to this attack, the United States will blow up the entire South Pars gas field.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CHINA BEGINS MAKING DIPLOMATIC MOVES. UNITED STATES DEPLOYS SECOND MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT TO CENTCOM.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Iranian forces successfully engaged an American F-35 aircraft during a strike mission within Iran. IRGC officials initially released footage of a missile impacting an F-35, which most people assumed was probably fake, initially. However CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins stated that one F-35 did make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia, but declined to directly confirm what caused the incident.

Analyst Comment: Due to the all evidence available to the public, it is almost certain that the Anti-Aircraft engagement did happen, and that the aircraft survived the encounter enough to limp back across the Gulf to friendly lines. This is also indicated by the Iranians themselves via the classic "trim the clip and replay it a million times so that the viewer can't see the aircraft managed to survive" tactic which was heavily used for this short video clip. More strategically, this is an indicator that the United States is not operating under the state of "uncontested airspace" that was advertised at the start of the war. Almost three weeks into the conflict the airspace is still very much contested, and the Iranians have some level of effective air defense that is able to actually successfully target the F-35 platform.

-HomeFront-

California: Yesterday the USS *BOXER* (LHD-4) departed port San Diego ahead of schedule for a deployment to the Middle East. The 11th MEU is embarked on this vessel, and will be the second MEU dedicated to CENTCOM, supplementing the USS *TRIPOLI* which will be arriving in theater soon.

Analyst Comment: This is an indication and warning that a Ground Combat Element to the current war in Iran is actively being considered and planned for. At this moment it's too soon to tell if this is a serious endeavor, but it would be wise to consider that President Trump does not have a history of bluffing on military matters. So far, from Midnight Hammer to Venezuela, every threat of military use has come to fruition eventually.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, China and other nations throughout Asia have been making moves of their own. On Wednesday, Chinese officials offered to provide LNG to Taiwan if they were to consider coming under Beijing's rule. Taiwan has obviously rejected the offer, stating that they have alternative means of maintaining energy security (i.e. the United States). While China knew this offer would have been rejected, it's in line with China's policy of moving goalposts incredibly slowly over time.

All of this is helpful to view in the context of this year's Annual Threat Assessment provided by the Director of National Intelligence. While focus has been on the DNI for other reasons lately, this yearly report came out a few days ago, and revealed a surprising change of mentality for China. The official stance of the DNI is that China will not attempt to militarily conquer Taiwan, and will instead attempt a more soft approach, bringing Taiwan under the fold via economic means.

This puts on full display the differences of opinion within the IC on the Taiwan issue, which have been growing over the years; it has become a common theory that China would prefer to take Taiwan indirectly rather than fighting for it, due to the costliness of invading such a nation as Taiwan.

Within the Intelligence Community, official assessments are often centered around who's the loudest, and not necessarily who's right. Opinions on China have largely been a knife-fight within the IC for a while now, and the DNI report might reflect a change of heart on the Taiwan issue. For years, the loudest voices have been that China was planning a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, which is still a very solid theory. The DNI's report is surprising for very nuanced reasons: This report acknowledges that there is another possible theory, and that the alternative (the peaceful economic takeover) is actually most likely. Either way, the war in the Middle East has complicated the situation, and however that conflict works out will determine how much political influence the Chinese have in their quest to expand their regional dominance. China's strategy with Taiwan is essentially "do nothing, win" and now that another hot shooting war is underway in the Middle East, the Chinese are very unlikely to interrupt their enemy when they are making a mistake.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/NOHHLIBq9FY

//The Wire//2300Z March 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUES 48 HOUR ULTIMATUM FOR IRAN TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BEFORE CHANGING STANCE AND IMPLEMENTING 5 DAY CEASEFIRE. MAJOR AVIATION INCIDENT REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA. MULTIPLE IEDS DISCOVERED IN MARYLAND PARK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Over the weekend the situation deteriorated significantly, with the war heating up on many fronts. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran for them to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the United States will destroy their civilian power plants. This morning, President Trump stated that "productive conversations" had been conducted with Iranian officials, and that the US has emplaced a 5-day halt on the bombing campaign throughout Iran.

Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that they "cannot confirm" various details of the strike, or that the missiles were fired by Iran. This statement came two days after the Iranians denied responsibility for the attack, stating that they did not launch any missiles at Diego Garcia.

Analyst Comment: Whatever the truth is, it can't be independently confirmed due to the nature of the targeting effort occurring in space, outside with realm of eyewitnesses. Either way, it must be noted for posterity that NATO has expressed uncertainty regarding what missile it might have been, and the Iranians are denying that it was them.

Israel: As the war continues, Iranian forces conducted two major retaliatory strikes over the weekend. The first ballistic missile attack occurred a few miles from the Israeli Dimona nuclear facility, with the warhead landing in a heavily urbanized area near where Israeli scientists are known to live. Separately, another Iranian missile targeted the city of Arad, which resulted in a mass casualty event.

Analyst Comment: The Dimona strike was significant as the munition itself appeared to have demonstrated some means of maneuverability in the terminal stages of it's flight, which allowed the warhead to evade missile defenses. If this was intentional, this is more evidence that the Iranians are shifting to their better missiles, which have more capability. Additionally, the response to these strikes signals a shift in Israeli perspective on the war. Previously, Israel has cracked down hard on all media regarding successful Iranian strikes, with footage and geolocation of any successful impacts being extremely hard to come by. With these strikes however, the media lockdown has been lifted, with PM Netanyahu himself visited both sites and conducting media briefings at the impact craters. The reasons for this change of policy are anyone's guess, but it is significant enough to be aware of.

United Kingdom: Over the weekend an arson attack was reported at a Synagogue in Golder's Green, which involved unknown assailants setting multiple private ambulances on fire in the parking area adjacent to the facility.

Analyst Comment: These ambulances were being parked at the Synagogue, but they actually belong to Hatzola Northwest, a private ambulance service for the local area. In any case, video surveillance of Heighfield Road is substantial and there are no less than eight high-resolution security cameras which would have caught the attackers setting these ambulances on fire, so they'll probably be caught very soon.

-HomeFront-

Maryland: Sunday afternoon, local authorities responded to reports of multiple suspicious packages within Fort Washington Park. U.S. Park Police responded to the reports, which resulted in the discovery of 5x Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) of pipe-bomb-type construction. The park was closed as the Prince George County Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team rendered the devices safe. No word yet on who placed the devices or if they were viable explosives.

New York: Last night a major incident was reported at LaGuardia Airport after Air Canada 8646 collided with a firetruck that was crossing the runway as the plane was landing. Both the pilot and copilot were killed during the impact, and several others were severely injured. The crew of the firetruck that was hit survived the impact with broken bones. LaGuardia remains closed while the debris is investigated and recovered.

Analyst Comment: The investigation will take some time to confirm, but as with all aviation mishaps this disaster appears to be a result of multiple factors. The fire truck (Truck 1) was responding to reports of a strange odor onboard another aircraft (United 2384), so the night was already incredibly busy. In the fray of the active emergency declaration underway, ATC gave permission for the firetruck to across an active runway, seeming to forget about the Air Canada flight that had just touched down, which resulted in the aircraft colliding with the firetruck on the runway.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Messaging regarding the war in Iran has become so variable, it's challenging to determine what is actually happening. Simply put, Trump's post on social media sounds a lot like searching for an offramp in the manner of conceding to a ceasefire, without saying the word "ceasefire". Right now, it's certainly possible that the US has quietly agreed to an informal ceasefire, based on the terms of Iran allowing vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a 5-day cessation of American bombing. On the other side, Iranian state media claims that Trump's statement is false, and that they withdrew from talks entirely after he threatened to bomb their civilian power plants. Specifically, Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that not only are talks not being conducted, but they aren't even speaking to the US indirectly through intermediaries.

Otherwise, actions speak louder than words. And on that front strategic movement involving military cargo flights has increased over the past few days, with the United States stepping up logistical efforts to move cargo into the Middle East. The US is moving stuff into the region at breakneck pace, and right now this looks like a deliberate staging of resources for a major offensive. While purely speculative, it is possible that what is being touted as a gracious halt to bombing is actually the result of a shortage of munitions, which need to be topped up before another major offensive action, so at the moment the most likely theory regarding this "quasi-ceasefire" is that this is an attempt to pump the brakes on the rapidly spiraling economic situation, while at the same time rearming and refitting. For context, this 5-day halt to bombing expires on Friday...just after markets close for the weekend.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.

Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.

Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z March 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR ESCALATES AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS ISRAEL AND IRAN BEGIN MORE ROUTINE TARGETING OF EACH OTHERS NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. MULTIPLE FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED IN BAGHDAD. US ARMY RAISES ENLISTMENT AGE TO 42 FOR NEW RECRUITS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Multiple escalations of the conflict took place overnight. Following Israeli/American bombing yesterday, Iranian forces retaliated by striking multiple US bases/positions in Kuwait. In Israel, strikes were also reported at the Orot Rabin Power Plant in Hadera, however the munition appears to have missed the generation facilities by a narrow margin. Another Iranian strike targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport overnight, and similar strikes were reported in Tel Aviv which resulted in unknown damage.

Iraq: Multiple significant events occurred overnight as the PMF begins more deliberate offensive operations. Yesterday morning, the United States conducted airstrikes at the personal residences of PMF leadership in Al Habbaniya. This strike killed Saad Al Baiji (an operations chief), and subsequently resulted in an intensification of targeting efforts on American positions throughout Baghdad. As a result of this targeting of PMF leadership, Iraqi Prime ​Minister ‌Mohammed ⁠Shia Al Sudani has authorized PMF militia groups to retaliate against American forces.

Analyst Comment: This is a major escalation that could effectively open up another front in the war. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are a semi-autonomous, highly-organized militia group that serves as one of Iran's major proxy groups outside their own borders. Technically, they are linked to the Iraqi government, but in practice they mostly just do what they want while being supplied by the Iranians. The official Iraqi government stating that they will let them off leash (while not entirely surprising) is in effect a return to GWOT era, but this time the Iraqi government is openly endorsing their attacks on Americans. So in effect, battle lines are being drawn and the Iraqis are now taking the side of Iran. Depending on how kinetic PMF operations become, American forces may face more contested airspace over not just Iran, but Iraq as well.

Otherwise, this week has witnessed an escalation of the war as FPV drone attacks have become more commonly carried out at Camp Victory by insurgents targeting American forces. In a video released yesterday evening, one HH-60M helicopter was targeted, along with a Sentinel radar array.

Analyst Comment: The success of these attacks is not known, but the Iraqi militias conducting these attacks have significantly improved their targeting efforts with lessons learned from Ukraine, or probably more accurately...Russia. One of the FPV drones recorded the other drone attacking the radar site, before flying off to find another target. However, while searching for other targets of opportunity, the idiots accidentally targeted a MEDEVAC helicopter, which is evidenced by the video being edited to blur out the giant Red Cross painted on the side of the aircraft. After reviewing the tape, the militia group probably realized that makes them look bad, so they blurred the footage themselves.

Kuwait: Civil Defense authorities have begun producing informational videos for the general public, regarding what to do in the event of a nuclear incident at a power plant in a neighboring country, such as if Israeli/American forces were to target the active reactor building at Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

Analyst Comment: All eyes are on Bushehr. The Israelis dropped munitions in the parking lot a few days ago, probably as a warning, but in retaliation the Iranians hit the residential buildings housing scientists at Dimona yesterday, and this morning they hit an unknown target immediately adjacent to the Hadera plant. In response to this, the IAEA said that the Israeli's hit Bushehr again last night, with unknown impacts. As a result of these constantly rising threats when it comes to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, most GCC states are now actively assuming that this facility will be struck within the next few days, which will probably result in a release of radioactive material.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Yesterday the Pentagon published the newest changes to the Regular Army and Reserve Components Enlistment Program. These changes raise the maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42, and also removed the need for a waiver for recruits who have a prior marijuana conviction.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This decision was probably made some time ago, but is now just coming into effect, due to the long-term effects of poor recruiting efforts over the years. Turns out, the reports of recruiting goals being met were probably inaccurate, and increasing the enlistment age window by a substantial margin is interesting, although most of the other services already had an age limit of 42 years for enlistment. So in effect this is probably just an administrative, pencil-whipped policy.

However, this policy change coming about right now, during a time of war, is certainly a case of exceptionally poor timing. In wartime everyone defaults to the worst-case scenario. Even if this was a benign policy decision, in the context of this coming to light in the same week that the 82nd Airborne is being deployed to the Middle East...most people will think this is not exactly a good omen, and there's no real way to smooth things out when the Pentagon is not really interested in alleviating concerns themselves.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.

Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.

The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.

Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.

Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS SHIPPING COMPANIES MAKE DEALS WITH IRAN. WAR IN LEBANON REMAINS INTENSE AS IDF NEARS LITANI ON THE EASTERN FRONT. AIRSTRIKES REPORTED AT TWO IRANIAN URANIUM PRODUCTION FACILITIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Offensive actions and targeting efforts by all sides were temporarily degraded last night as a major storm system descended on the region. A supercell storm system similar to a cyclone descended on the UAE last night, with severe flooding and high winds being reported throughout Dubai.

After the weather cleared, major Iranian targeting efforts were reported throughout the region. Port facilitates were struck in Kuwait, and a large fire was observed at the parking apron used by American aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, with the smoke plume being visible on Sentinel satellite imagery from this morning.

Iran: This morning American/Israeli forces struck multiple nuclear production facilities. The Arak Heavy Water Facility (which was struck years ago) was struck again this morning, and the Yellowcake Refinery in Ardakan was also struck.

Analyst Comment: The risk of radiological release at either facility is low, as Arak was not functional and Ardakan was not host to enriched Uranium itself. However, monitoring will continue as radioactive dust is likely to contaminate the local area to some degree, and time will tell how these threats develop as the strikes continue.

Lebanon: Israeli forces continue their advance north toward the Litani River, as FPV drone attacks by Hezbollah become more significant. Two drone attacks on Israeli armored columns were reported last night, along the eastern axis of advance. Israeli forces along the eastern front have made the most progress toward the river, with IDF units being observed in the town of Taybeh this morning.

Analyst Comment: Hezbollah's media group claims that a total of 21 Merkava tanks have been destroyed so far this campaign, however as always these numbers are usually overinflated. Concerning tank casualties, it's incredibly difficult to tell from a video clip if a vehicle was actually penetrated or not, and most of the clips provided by Hezbollah conveniently cut away before the tank's Trophy countermeasure system is activated. This means that counting destroyed/disabled tanks is mostly a wash. However, from the clips and reports on the ground, this is not an easy fight for the Israelis either. Anti-Tank Guided Missile attacks are a mainstay of Hezbollah, and these attacks have been effective in making the Israeli advance more costly than expected.

-HomeFront-

Iowa: Last night a major egg farm burned down in Corwith. The Hawkeye Pride egg production facility caught fire shortly after 6:00pm yesterday evening, which resulted in significant damage to the egg farm. Hawkeye Pride is one of the largest cage-free egg producers in the United States, and the extent of the damage to the henhouses has not yet been determined.

California: Yesterday evening a blackout was reported in Orange County, mostly affecting the areas of Carlsbad and Encinitas, as well as areas south of Escondido. The cause of the electrical outage has not yet been reported, but services were mostly restored for many customers by sunrise.

Florida: Following up on the recent IED threat to MacDill Air Force Base, two individuals have been identified as the culprits of the attack. Ann Mary Zheng and her brother Alen Zheng (both Chinese nationals) have been indicted on charges of emplacing the IED at the visitor's center on March 10th before it was discovered by authorities on March 16th. Mary Zheng was arrested on Wednesday after returning to the United States, while her brother remains in China.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Many nationstates have made their deals with the Iranians to allow their shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, however due to the complex nature of a war being undertaken throughout the region, it's still a tenuous journey for commercial companies. Cargo is beginning to flow to China, Japan, and India but the volume of shipping through the Strait remains severely below normal levels. Iranian targeting efforts have proven to be effective, and vessels are not transiting the Strait at all, without prior coordination with Iranian officials, which schedule vessels to transit to Larak Island for inspection, before continuing through the Strait.

At the current rate, the handful of ships that make it through each day are not nearly enough to stop very serious things from happening. Complex systems are beginning to be impacted quite significantly now that the war in the Middle East (and the subsequent halt to maritime traffic throughout the region) has been going on for one month. Diesel rationing is well underway in some parts of Australia, and limited unrest has been reported throughout Southeast Asia as gasoline shortages spread throughout the region. Just as with the start of the war in Ukraine, it will probably take several more months for international markets and supply chains to settle in to some sort of reliability. However since this conflict involves a major maritime choke point, it's very likely that even though many nations are attempting to re-route supply chains as best they can, disruptions are likely to continue for a while.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at how the multiple wars are going on overseas; from Scandinavia to Indochina, things are heating up as the Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars complicate life for most of us here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/ShvEdsULxpw

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.

Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.

Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.

Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.

Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.

This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.

This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan.

In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T *AL SALMI* was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel.

Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues.

Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks.

Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks.

-HomeFront-

USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly".

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck.