//The Wire//2300Z March 5, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MERCHANT VESSEL STRUCK BY EXPLOSIVE FASTBOAT IN PERSIAN GULF. DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS REMAIN CONSTANT AMONG GULF STATES. DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN AZERBAIJAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Attacks on merchant shipping continue as an oil tanker that was anchored off the coast of Kuwait was struck by Iranian forces overnight. The vessel has been identified as the M/V SONAGOL NAMIBE, an oil tanker that is currently anchored in the group of vessels that are waiting for the risks in the Strait to subside.

Analyst Comment: Turns out, in such a small waterway, it's just as dangerous to remain at anchor. This strike is also different from the rest, as video evidence confirms that this was the result of a (possibly remote-controlled) Iranian fastboat conducting a strike on the vessel. For context, the Iranian Navy is split into two parts, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), which is the more traditional navy comprised of Line ships, and the Islamic Republic Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN). The majority of the IRIN has mostly been sunk over the past few days, however the smaller "speedboat navy" of the IRGC-N was created solely for the purpose of conducting asymmetric warfare, and is likely the culprit of this attack. As there are a few dozen other tankers parked immediately adjacent to the one that was struck, it is likely that more of these attacks will take place, as long as the IRGCN is able to.

Iran: Within the mainland itself, the large-scale bombing of Tehran and other major population centers continues alongside the bombing of most military bases throughout the country. Yesterday Israeli forces shot down an Iranian YAK-130 training aircraft, which had somehow managed to get airborne, and drone attacks launched by the Iranians continue as before.

Azerbaijan: Iranian forces launched a drone attack on the airport in the border town of Nakhchivan. The main terminal was hit by Shahed-type drones, and another undisclosed location in Shekarabad was also struck.

Analyst Comment: This is noteworthy as Azerbaijan was one of Iran's only regional allies. As a result, Azerbaijan has demanded an apology, and diplomatic relations are not great as two people were killed during the strikes on the airport. Officially, the Iranians have denied that they carried out the attack, stating that it was a false flag incident.

-HomeFront-

Utah: Overnight a killing spree was reported spanning multiple counties, involving multiple casualties. The incident began after an assailant murdered an elderly victim in Lyman. The attacker then stole her vehicle, and traveled to a hiking trailhead in Wayne County, where he murdered two women on the trail. This prompted a state-wide manhunt, which located the suspect after he had fled the scene, with the assailant eventually being located and arrested. As the suspect was arrested over the border in the state of Colorado, he has been identified as Ivan Miller.

Analyst Comment: At the moment, this appears to be a series of random murders, as none of the victims (nor the perpetrator) appears to have any connection to any sort of motive, other than random mental illness. More details are expected to emerge as the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: European evacuations of European citizens from the Middle East continues, with Spain dedicating military assets to getting some of their citizens out of the region over night. So far, zero Americans have been evacuated via American military means (which have the capabilities to fly when civilian aircraft cannot), and any American who has managed to get out has done so via commercial means. Commercial flights out of Dubai and Riyadh are occurring, they're just slow due to the sheer number of people trying to leave and the few aircraft landing between drone attacks.

As of this afternoon, D+6 (six days after this war began) the drone attacks have remained constant. All Gulf States have been publishing daily engagement numbers, and so far, the drone attacks have not really dwindled that much, despite assurances by many that the attacks have stopped. The drone attacks have not ceased...they are simply being intercepted out over the water. Some drones are making it through defenses to strike targets, with limited success. This afternoon several hotels were struck by Iranian drones in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which has served to remind everyone involved that the threats are real and persistent. Either way, drone sightings and close-in interceptions are enough to ground aircraft for a while, further adding to the evacuation bottlenecks that are stacking up around the region.

Regarding timelines, yesterday evening the estimates for the length of the operation have changed again, with SECWAR Hegseth stating that the operation is now planned to take an uncertain amount of time, potentially up to 8 weeks. The Secretary of War also stated that the United States is planned to achieve uncontested airspace in the skies over Iran within a few days, possibly up to a week. Either way, this confirms that after nearly a week, the airspace is still somewhat contested, despite the overwhelming large bombing raids witnessed so far.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS THE WAR OF LOGISTICS BECOMES PARAMOUNT. AMERICAN BASES THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE TO BE TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. TERRORISM CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE HOMELAND AS THE WAR CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with Iranian drone attacks remaining constant throughout the region. Dubai alone has been averaging around a hundred munitions being observed each day, nearly all of which are intercepted. Flights out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been able to increase somewhat, as Iranian drone attacks have shifted to targeting American military installations and petroleum infrastructure around the region. Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait have been primary targets for Iranian missiles/drones, with significant targeting efforts taking place over the past 24 hours.

Concerning American targeting efforts, bombings continue in Tehran and other major cities. Most military infrastructure throughout Iran has been destroyed, and President Trump has stated that no deal is sought, as only unconditional surrender is demanded.

Analyst Comment: This has been the blanket statement since the start of the war, but it's not entirely clear as to whom Iranian military forces are supposed to surrender to. Right now, any Iranian who wishes to stop fighting doesn't really have any way to declare that intent. As the United States and Israel rather confidently keep assassinating any sort of political leadership within Iran, it's not known who would even have the authority to sign surrender papers at this point.

-HomeFront-

USA: Various counterterrorism and law enforcement agencies have been progressively increasing security measures at critical sites around the nation, due to the increased potential for terrorism to take place within the United States as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. NORTHCOM has raised the force protection posture at most North American military installations, with the Trusted Traveler program being temporarily halted while terrorism concerns are elevated.

Analyst Comment: Right now, the risk of Iranian government-sponsored combatants engaging targets within the homeland is fairly low. However, due to the prevalence of 5th Generation Warfare being common in the modern world, what is much more likely is the co-opting of the Gulf War by other unrelated groups for their own gain. In short, there probably aren't that many Iranian sleeper agents in the US, but there are dozens of other groups seeking to make a name for themselves, or otherwise hijack national attention for their own gain. As always, predicting when and where security threats will pop up is hard, so increased vigilance is recommended.

Washington D.C. - DHS Secretary Noem has been transitioned to a new role, with Senator Markwayne Mullin from Oklahoma being slated to replace her within the next few days.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Of note, the satellite imagery company Planet Labs has imposed a 96-hour-delay policy with their satellite imagery, so as to prevent their imagery from being used for targeting purposes. As this is an American company, this makes perfect sense at first, as the modern world of commercial satellite imagery within the civilian space has the possibility to impact the war. However, this move is almost certainly not to prevent the Iranians from obtaining targeting data, and implementing this policy a week after the war began (and after American radar sites have been targeted), is akin to shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The Iranians are being fed targeting data of their own from the Chinese, who have been all to happy to highlight American losses with their own satellite constellations, which the United States does not control. And though it is always suspect due to the trustworthiness of the source, the Chinese have been focusing on highlighting specific targets for the Iranians to strike....and there's nothing the United States can do about it.

Concerning the next phases of the war, indications and warnings are mounting of the operation shifting into the next phase. This morning the USS *FORD* CSG transited the Suez Canal, heading south into the Red Sea. Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, the hospital that is the main medical hub for the CENTCOM AOR, confirmed that all prenatal care has been suspended until further notice, so that the medical center can have flexibility in treating combat casualties. On the political front, rhetoric concerning a potential boots-on-ground phase of the operation has sharply increased over the past few days, though no specific decisions have been made public.

In short, this could all be nothing, or it could be something. These very thin data points could be the early indicators of the war expanding in scope. In Washington, absolutely zero sentiments indicate that the war will be over anytime soon, and combat operations throughout Iran are expected to remain constant over the next few weeks at minimum. It's been seven days since the war began, and the USS *LINCOLN* CSG is still holding well outside the Strait of Hormuz, which is a solid indicator that the despite the overwhelming strikes throughout the country, enough risk remains to prevent bringing a carrier into the line of fire more directly. The arrival of a second aircraft carrier in a few days may change this, but as of right now, the Iranians are able to strike American bases and petroleum facilities just enough to indicate that risks remain constant throughout the region.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/lQjKsIRqNLQ

//The Wire//2300Z March 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES NEW YORK AS PROTESTERS TARGETED WITH IEDS. AMERICAN BOMBING OF IRAN CONTINUES AS IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REGULARLY TARGET OIL INFRASTRUCTURE IN MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The war continues, with both American strikes on Tehran, and Iranian strikes on Tel Aviv continuing over the weekend. The American 'Shock and Awe' campaign continues day and night, with increasingly more substantial bombings taking place over the weekend. Iranian drone attacks continue as before, with several strikes of note being carried out over the weekend. As of this morning, the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE is still on fire from last night's attacks. The BAPCO refinery in Bahrain was also struck again several times over the past few days, along with the desalination plant in Ma'ameer. The fuel point at Kuwait International Airport was also struck over the weekend, as civilian flights throughout Kuwait remain grounded until further notice due to Iranian targeting efforts.

Strait of Hormuz: The impacts to shipping remain constant, with one commercial vessel reporting being struck by a drone in the Saudi port of Jubail on Saturday. This morning BAPCO declared a force majeure for their contracts, indicating that they are unable to meet the obligations of their contracts, due to the war impacting operations.

Turkey: This morning Turkish authorities stated that another Iranian ballistic missile had been intercepted in their airspace. The missile was reportedly shot down by a US Navy vessel stationed in the eastern Med.

Norway: An explosion was reported at the US Embassy in Oslo, as an unidentified assailant placed an IED at the entrance to the facility Saturday night. Norwegian officials have stated that the incident is being investigated as a possible terror attack, and photos of the suspect have been released, as the suspect remains at large. No further details have been provided on the composition of the suspected explosive device, however the investigation is ongoing.

-HomeFront-

New York: On Saturday, an anti-Islam protest outside of Mayor Mamdani's residence was attacked by counter protesters, which involved terrorists attacking demonstrators with IEDs. Initially, groups of protesters were separated by the NYPD: The group protesting against Mamdani (and against Islam in general) was separated from a group of counterprotesters by pedestrian barriers as is customary for events where protesters have a high likelihood of attacking each other. In this case, two of the counterprotesters arrived with IEDs, lit their fuses, and threw them over to the main protest group, targeting the small group of about a dozen anti-Islam protesters. Both of the IEDs that were thrown failed to detonate, as the impact with the ground extinguished the lit fuses. The suspects were immediately detained at the scene, and a search of the area revealed additional IEDs located in a parked vehicle adjacent to the event. The two suspects have been identified as Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, both residents of Pennsylvania. More details are expected as the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: A bit of back story is needed to explain the context for how important the attack in New York City actually was. The protest that started everything was an "Americans Against Islamification" protest organized by Jake Lang, who has become infamous for going into Islamic strongholds, and holding protests that are intended to inflame tensions. This context may result in many people being tempted to roll their eyes and dismiss this attack due to the history of Lang's protests usually being rather theatrical. For instance, the day before the IED attack on his group he crashed a vigil to the Ayatollah, driving by the event in a Uhaul van with a goat and an American flag. Theatrics aside, however, Saturday's IED attack was a VERY big deal that should not be ignored as a publicity stunt, because it's possible that this attack inadvertently exposed a much wider and more substantial terrorist network.

This hunch is due to the composition of the explosive devices themselves...these were not the standard low-grade pipe-bombs that are the usual terrorist go-to for attacks like this. NYPD officials have stated that the devices were comprised of Triacetone triperoxide (TATP), which is a powerful Homemade Explosive (HME) compound that is highly unstable if made in an improvised weapons lab.

Speculating a bit regarding this attack, it is unlikely that a terrorist group would build such substantial IEDs solely to target a dozen people at a pop-up protest. These take time to make, and the protest was only announced a few hours before it began. It is possible to make a batch of TATP in a day, however it's very unlikely that the explosives were made for this specific event. And for a bomb maker who seeks to avoid getting the nickname "lefty" these explosive compounds require some level of competency and experience to make.

As a result, it's far more likely that these explosives were intended for some other target, before the last-minute protest caused the target to shift to the most emotionally-motivating target. It's possible that a terrorist cell saw Lang's defilement of the Ayatollah's vigil the previous day, and decided to take some of the pre-made explosives to commit a terror attack the next morning when he announced the protest at Mamdani's residence. If this theory bears any weight, it's possible that there are other individuals elsewhere (either acting on their own, or in coordination with more organized groups) which are probably sitting on similar armaments. Exactly where these cells are located is anyone's guess, but since the two attackers themselves travelled all the way from Pennsylvania to conduct the terror attack, these threats are not endemic to New York City alone.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE. SHIPS BEGIN ATTEMPTING TO RUN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID IRANIAN TARGETING EFFORTS. US CONSULATE IN TORONTO TARGETED IN SMALL ARMS ATTACK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The Planet satellite imagery company has announced an extension of their holding of satellite imagery throughout the Middle East. Planet had previously instituted a 96-hour hold on all imagery of American installations in the region, for the Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons of preventing Iranians from using up-to-date satellite imagery in their targeting efforts. As of this morning, Planet has extended this delay to two weeks, with all imagery of non-Iranian terrain being withheld for 14 days from all customers.

Strait of Hormuz: The Strait remains semi-officially closed, as most commercial vessels refuse to accept the risk of trying to run the gauntlet. Iranian forces continue to strike cargo vessels, but some vessels are making the attempt to transit the Strait, amid these threats. This morning, one commercial vessel was reportedly struck by a drone (or had a near-miss), highlighting the risks for commercial shipping.

Analyst Comment: Interestingly enough, some vessels have pulled a Leeroy Jenkins, and plowed through the Strait over the past few days with their transponders off, hoping for the best. Other vessels have also tried the old standby trick that was discovered during the Houthi targeting in the Red Sea last year...they're changing their AIS transponder data to claim affiliation with China, in hopes of being allowed free passage. This has worked for a couple of dozen vessels so far, but the targeting of shipping in the Persian Gulf is still too random to draw a conclusion as to what's actually being targeted by the Iranians.

Korean Peninsula: South Korean officials have voiced concern regarding the reallocation of American strategic resources from the region. This morning, the South Korean media group Yonhap published photos of Americans disassembling a THAAD battery, which is being relocated to the Middle East to replace at least one of the sites that was damaged/destroyed by Iranian targeting efforts.

Canada: This morning an active shooter was reported at the U.S. Consulate General in Toronto. Toronto Police state that a white Honda CRV approached the facility, stopping at the main entrance. Two suspects exited the vehicle and fired shots from handguns at the Consulate, before egressing from the scene. Multiple shell casings were recovered from the shooting site, and the shooters remain at large.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: National security is of course a higher priority than providing up-to-date satellite imagery of the Middle East for the civilian world; as unfortunate as it is, censorship is a critical part of warfare and there's absolutely nothing that can be done about it. However, the timing and nature of this censorship occurring now, is quite interesting. As a reminder, the Chinese have provided extremely detailed imagery of American equipment losses since the start of the war via their own satellite networks, so the Iranians don't exactly need American satellites at all.

This seemingly unimportant satellite imagery delay can also serve as an indicator for the expected timeline of the war...requesting American satellite companies to intentionally withhold their imagery from the public for two full weeks is not something that is done if the war is coming to a close. Right now, a lot of rhetoric is flying concerning the potential end of the conflict, with analysis of President Trump's remarks on the war focusing on how long the war might last, or what might happen over the next few days/weeks. At the moment, we cannot make decisions based on this rhetoric, as it changes by the hour and is frequently contradictory.

What we can do, is look at the facts. American companies are being ordered to withhold satellite imagery from the region for two weeks. American positions continue being targeted by Iranian drones, to include another strike at the THAAD battery in Abu Dhabi this morning, and a strike at Al Udeid Airbase last night. The United States continues to level and crater most military installations throughout Iran with overwhelming dominance, to include bombing sites which have already been bombed. Dubai and the GCC states at large continue to be targeted daily by Iranian drones, and flights are routinely grounded due these targeting efforts. All of these data points indicate that this conflict may last for some time. All it takes is a phone call to stop the bombing and bring everybody home, and considering President Trump's style of rapidly changing policies, this could very well happen. But as of right now, the ground truth does not reflect any "off-ramps" being feasible for a while.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing.

Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy.

Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others.

Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way.

As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate.

Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z March 12, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEDIA REPORTS MINES LAID IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. MULTIPLE SHIPS STRUCK BY EXPLOSIVE BOATS IN PERSIAN GULF. THREATS TO AMERICAN HOMELAND REMAIN ELEVATED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Last night two tanker vessels were struck by Iranian Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs). Two explosive-laden small boats rammed into the side of two oil tankers that were anchored outside the port of Basrah. The two vessels (the M/V *ZEFYROS* and M/V *SAFESEA VISHNU*) were conducting ship-to-ship operations near the Basra Oil Terminal when both vessels were struck by remotely-controlled explosive boats. Several hours later, a third vessel was struck by a drone in the southern Persian Gulf, off the coast of Jebel Ali.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning many mainstream media sources have cited closed-source reporting claiming that Iranian forces have indeed mined the Strait. An estimated 10x mines have been laid, with some reports stating that potentially dozens of mines have been laid throughout the choke point.

Analyst Comment: So far, there's not much we can do with off-the-record reports citing unknown sources. However, considering the concerns over the past few days, it's possible that the Iranians have laid a few strings of mines, even though doing so would likely harm their relationship with China. Where these mines are located, is anyone's guess. But if the Iranians can continue successful targeting efforts with remotely-piloted small boats, it would not be that much of a jump to assess that they can probably place a few mines as well.

Middle East: Around the region, attacks on American installations and positions continue. Al Dhafra Airbase was struck this morning, and more substantial drone strikes were reported throughout Dubai overnight. Most of the munitions were intercepted, but the Address Creek Harbor hotel was hit by a Shahed drone early this morning. In Bahrain, hotels and other sites continue to be targeted by Iranian drones, in addition to oil infrastructure throughout the island nation which has been targeted several times since the start of this conflict.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon, multiple mainstream media outlets began broadcasting claims of an alleged plot for Iranian forces to attack the American homeland. Specifically, claims have been made that Iranian forces may attempt to launch drone attacks on California from ships off the west coast. No substantial information or context has been provided beyond that initial leak.

As of right now, this is a giant game of telephone. The report probably came from the FBI, was passed to various police departments as a Law Enforcement Sensitive document, and was subsequently leaked to the media (without posting the actual source document). For context, the "Iranian drone ship off our coast" attack vector has been theory for so many years that in intel circles it's more of a thought experiment that is used to teach concepts. For many, many years, this theory has not been considered a serious threat, simply because Iranian forces do no have the naval capability to sustain combat operations off the American west coast. A subset of this thought experiment is the theory of some malign actor (in this case, the Iranians) using containerized drone launchers concealed onboard legitimate containerships, which would launch without notice. This theory is vastly more likely, and has been confirmed to not just be possible, but operationally effective, as demonstrated by Ukraine's Operation SPIDER WEB last year. However, Iran does not have the same capabilities as America-backed Ukraine, so this theory, while possible, still lies in the theoretical realm instead of a direct pending threat.

Hopefully more information will come to light regarding what the threats actually are, and how concerned the public should be. As of right now, this risk is no more elevated than it has been since the start of the war. Whether it be Iranian sleeper agents, opportunistic criminals, lone-wolf terrorists, or a false flag incident intended to drag us deeper into war...bullets and bombs do not discriminate in who they kill. So regardless of who's behind it, the chances of domestic threats popping up remain elevated, and constant vigilance and situational awareness is always a good idea.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE AMERICAN HOMELAND. WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN IRAQ, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Last night CENTCOM reported the loss of one KC-135 Stratotanker, which crashed in western Iraq. Rescue operations were conducted immediately, however all six crew members have been confirmed deceased. The incident occurred as a result of a mid-air collision, which involved another KC-135 aircraft that was also damaged.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning another commercial vessel was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the vessel. The crew abandoned ship, and several crew members remain missing.

Turkey: Another ballistic missile was intercepted overnight, as Iranian forces continue to target Incirlik Airbase. This is the third such interception since the war began.

UAE: Overnight drone attacks continued to strike Dubai, with the International Financial Center being struck by a Shahed drone yesterday evening.

Analyst Comment: Today was also the third day in a row that the UAE has changed their reporting criteria. Social media reports no longer list the total number of drones that impact within their country, with the daily rollup reports instead stating the number of drones and missiles that were "dealt with". Due to the video confirmation of drones impacting within Dubai overnight, these reports are now openly misleading, as the number of successful Iranian strikes remains unreported.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: Yesterday afternoon a vehicle ramming and small arms attack was reported at Temple Israel, one of the largest synagogues in Michigan. The attack began as a vehicle ramming attack targeting the main entrance to the facility. After the suspect breached the entrance, he exited the vehicle and was engaged by security personnel on site, who neutralized the attacker. Initial reports claim that the suspect also had explosives inside his vehicle, however authorities have not confirmed this yet as the vehicle caught fire during the incident and burned down a substantial portion of the structure, including the suspect. No one but the attacker was killed during the attack.

Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Lebanon. Some sources claim that he conducted the attack due to to his family being killed in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in Beirut yesterday, however these claims cannot be independently verified at this time. Either way, the suspect attacked the 12,000-member synagogue on a Thursday afternoon when almost no one was at the facility, which is an indicator that the terrorist did not have much time to plan the attack. More information is expected later on, as forensic analysis of the remains and vehicle debris is conducted.

Virginia: Yesterday a mass shooting was reported at Old Dominion University after a terrorist entered a classroom and began targeting students. Local authorities state that a lone gunman entered an ROTC classroom at ODU shortly before 11:00am yesterday morning, first shooting the instructor, who has been identified as LTC Brandon Shah. Immediately after the first shots were fired, the cadets in the classroom mounted a counterattack, using violence of action to subdue the attacker. At some point during the attack one cadet produced a pocket knife which was subsequently utilized in stabbing the attacker to death. The assailant was found dead by police at the scene after being stabbed 22x times.

Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Mohamad Bailor Jalloh, a naturalized US citizen from Sierra Leone and former National Guard soldier who had previously been convicted of attempting to carry out a terrorist attack. In 2016, Jalloh was arrested after attempting to procure firearms with the intent to carry out a Fort Hood-style mass shooting, which resulted in him being imprisoned in 2017 before he was released in 2024.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, local pro-Iranian militia groups such as the infamous Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have claimed credit for downing the KC-135 over western Iraq last night. However, it's extremely unlikely that the aircraft was shot down based on the damage that was sustained by the other KC-135 involved in the incident. The damaged tail section of the surviving aircraft contained no fragmentation or blast damage indicative of a missile strike, which would be expected in the event of combat damage.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 Today we dive into the threats at home and overseas, and examine how the war is continuing to expand. International power structures are changing, the drones keep flying, and the American people are not exactly being told the truth about this war. All of which indicates a spicy springtime is on the horizon. https://youtu.be/Q70RSF64H8o

//The Wire//2300Z March 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN STRIKES AND AMERICAN BOMBINGS REMAIN CONSTANT AS GULF STATES MORE OPENLY CENSOR DAMAGE REPORTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Over the weekend Iranian strikes on Dubai have continued, with the fuel point at the airport being hit early this morning. The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE was also hit, and burned throughout the day. American positions in Baghdad have also been under constant attack over the past few days, to include the first documented operational use of an FPV drone for an attack, which was conducted at Camp Victory a few days ago by pro-Iran militias in and around the capital region. Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait was hit again overnight, with the Italians reporting one of their hangars (and the MQ-9 housed within) being destroyed.

-HomeFront-

California: Last night a shooting was reported at a Spring Break event in Santa Monica. Two people were wounded during the shooting, both of which suffered non-life-threatening wounds. The suspect was identified as Jaysawn Williams, who was arrested after being wounded in the attack.

Analyst Comment: Despite initial media reports implying terrorism, right now this shooting looks like a gang shooting, rather than a more deliberate attack. However the investigation continues, and more details are expected as victim testimony becomes more public.

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Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has shifted into the phase where numbers alone do not accurately convey the situation. Perhaps this was never the case, however at this point, describing the number of bombs dropped and drones launched is not exactly representative of how the war is going.

For example, if the reports by various nations in the Middle East are accurate (which at this point is not a guarantee) the total number of drone and missile attacks by Iran has decreased. According to the UAE (which has been caught manipulating their data), only 6 drones attacks were reported last night...but the effectiveness of these strikes has sharply increased. That "6 drone" figure might be misleading or it may be ignoring the Iranian strikes that were successful. Either way, at least two drone strikes were incredibly effective last night, with one direct hit being reported on the fuel point at the Dubai airport, and another at the Fujairah Oil complex. At the northern end of the Persian Gulf, at least the Kuwaitis are being honest about their failed interceptions, with their latest report admitting that of the four drones launched at their nation last night, they only intercepted one.

Considering this development, two polar opposite analytical positions can easily be arrived at, depending on how one reads the raw data. It's possible that the Iranians are decreasing the numbers of drones launched because they are running out or American targeting has been effective. Or, one can surmise that the Iranians are now able to conserve their resources, because they now have their targets dialed in and their Command and Control (C2) systems have now recovered from the decapitation strikes that started the war.

Either theory will be largely opinion based, as the intelligence gaps regarding the war are very significant at this point. In war, nothing is certain, and right now all sides are attempting to over-estimate their gains, and downplay their losses. As unfortunate as it may be to observe, in a war where the grand strategy of all belligerents is based on hubris, the scale often tips in favor of the defender, or at least the fight for the attacker becomes much harder than it otherwise would have been. This would be wise to consider as the war enters it's third week, and neither American bases in the region nor the merchant vessels in the Strait appear to be granted any reprieve anytime soon.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days.

-HomeFront-

Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal.

Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home.

Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."

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Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events.

Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDS THE JONES ACT AS PETROLEUM INDUSTRY FEELS EFFECTS OF WAR IN IRAN. CONFLICT IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS ISRAELI FORCES INCREASE TARGETING EFFORTS IN LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with multiple attacks on American military bases occurring overnight. The American Embassy in Baghdad has been persistently targeted over the past few days, with one drone strike being reported last night, which resulted in unknown damage. Other coalition positions were struck as well, with Australia reporting successful Iranian targeting efforts at Al Minhad Airbase in the UAE. No casualties were reported by the Australians regarding this attack. Within Iran, Israel/American forces struck the South Pars Natural Gas Facility, one of the largest LNG facilities in the world.

Analyst Comment: Following this strike, several GCC states have condemned the action, as destroying infrastructure like this is a major escalation that indicates the nature of the war is more unrestricted, but also because the gas fields serviced by this facility are decently close to the Qatari's own gas fields.

Lebanon: The war has intensified over the past few days as Hezbollah and Israeli forces have continued fighting along the main axis of advance in the east. Throughout Lebanon (to include downtown Beirut) the Israeli bombing campaign continues, with Hezbollah forces remaining effective in targeting Tel Aviv with guided rockets and cruise missiles.

-HomeFront-

New Mexico: Yesterday afternoon a shooting was reported at Holloman Air Force Base, which resulted in one individual being killed and one other wounded at the base shopette. No other details have been provided on this shooting, and the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Washington, several items of note have been ongoing in the political realm, while attention has been focused on Iran. As one might expect, kicking off a war in the Middle East was expected to (and did) have secondary and tertiary effects. One of the immediate effects of this war has been found in the Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) industry, which has experienced wildly fluctuating markets since the war began. This morning the average national gas price rose to $3.84 per gallon, which prompted the White House to implement their previously discussed tactic of suspending the Jones Act as an emergency means to bring prices down in the short term.

For context, the Jones Act was implemented shortly after WW1 as a national security measure, to mandate that all goods that transit between American ports, must be transported using American ships with American crews. The general idea being that in the event of war, the maritime trade industry would need to remain effective...it wouldn't be super great for war to break out, and all of the merchant ships that keep the American economy afloat, were to sail back home. The American economy could be crippled without a shot being fired, solely by private companies in the US being allowed to use cheap foreign labor that is not loyal to the United States. In 1920 when the law was passed, the thought process was that companies might take advantage of the freedoms that America provides, to the legitimate detriment of national security. As a result, the Jones Act was a law intended to (somewhat begrudgingly) meddle in the free market, with the purpose of not allowing domestic American companies to rely on logistical infrastructure that isn't American and thus would be a vulnerability in war.

As of this morning President Trump suspended this law in it's entirety for the next 60 days, with the White House's logic being that removing regulations will make shipping costs go down, as the free market of ships could carry cargo, and thus save some costs somewhere down the line, which could be passed on to consumers. The effectiveness of this tactic will be proven in due time; most maritime agencies don't think it will do much, as it's unlikely for costs to be passed on to consumers for one, and secondly this is really just a last-ditch measure to throw any potential theoretical solution out, so as to find a way to drop gas prices by even just a few cents, which the White House is desperate to do at this point. Either way, this Jones Act waiver is in place for the next 60 days. Going out on a limb just a bit, 60 day waivers are not usually issued for wars that are supposed to be over within a "few weeks", so this somewhat boilerplate policy decision may be an inadvertent indicator for how long this war is planned to last.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO ESCALATE DAILY, AS IRANIAN TARGETING INCREASES IN SCOPE AND EFFECTIVENESS. GCC STATES VOICE GROWING CONCERNS REGARDING ATTACKS ON OIL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE. PENTAGON REQUESTS $200 BILLION BUDGET INCREASE TO CONTINUE WAR.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Iranian targeting efforts have continued to become more effective over the past few days. Drone and missile attacks have been increasing since the war began, with strikes being reported at most US military installations around the region daily. Oil infrastructure has also been targeted in GCC states that have been allowing American forces to launch HIMARS missiles at Iran.

Iran: Within the mainland, satellite imagery from yesterday confirmed that Israeli/American forces struck a target at the Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Imagery provided by Airbus indicates at least one impact crater roughly 350 meters from the Bushehr 1 Reactor. Shortly after the attack, Kuwaiti state media broadcast an announcement from the Kuwaiti National Guard stating that radiation levels after the strike were reported to be normal. The Qataris made similar announcements of normal radiation readings this afternoon.

Israel: Within Israel, Iranian targeting remains constant as well, with drone and missile attacks being reported regularly throughout the nation. Yesterday Ben Gurion Airport was hit, with several aircraft burning on the tarmac. The port of Haifa has been hit continually since the war began, and over the past few days more footage has made it to social media depicting the damage, as another substantial missile strike took place last night.

Analyst Comment: Continuing long-standing national defense policy, it is nearly impossible to determine where strikes are happening within Israel, as this information is tightly controlled by the Israeli government. Livestreaming cameras and traffic cams have been destroyed by the military throughout most of the country, so the intelligence gap of how bad things are in Tel Aviv is quite substantial at this point.

Saudi Arabia: Last night, an Iranian strike was reported at the Samarra Oil Refinery complex in Yanbu, on the Red Sea coast. This strike resulted in unknown damage, but the fires started by the strike were detected via satellite.

-HomeFront-

Delaware - Yesterday evening President Trump attended the dignified transfer of the airmen killed in the crash of the KC-135 in western Iraq. No media was allowed to cover the event, with the White House photographer only providing a few images of the transfer.

Analyst Comment: This is not the first time that media have been blocked from such an event; Dick Cheney instituted this as a blanket policy in 1991, and this became more heavily enforced starting in approximately 2003-2009, during the height of the GWOT. It is unclear as to if the White House will be re-instituting this policy, or if this was a one-time ban.

Washington D.C. - This morning the Pentagon requested the approval of a $200 billion defense package to supplement the War Department's budget, for the continuation of the war in the Middle East.

Analyst Comment: For perspective on how much money this is, as of right now, the United States taxpayer has sent a grand total of $175 billion in military aid to Ukraine, since the start of that war in 2022. As a result, the Pentagon casually requesting a check from the taxpayer greater than that which has been spent to date in Ukraine is going to be a hard pill to swallow.

-----END TEARLINE-----