This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/qxeW_jI7M3o

//The Wire//1500Z March 1, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. US CONSULATE UNDER ATTACK IN KARACHI, 9X RIOTERS KILLED AS US MARINES DEFEND THE COMPOUND. AYATOLLAH CONFIRMED DEAD FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE. MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump confirmed the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. Most of his senior advisors were also killed in the same engagement.

On the maritime front, this morning one commercial tanker vessel was struck by an Iranian drone, with the crew of the M/T *SKYLIGHT* abandoning ship after their vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours ago a second tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, with the M/T *MKD VYOM* being struck also attempting to transit the waterway this morning.

Analyst Comment: Of note, the *SKYLIGHT* does not appear to have been attempting to transit the Strait and has likely been anchored in the same place for a few years. This vessel was actually serving the Iranian oil industry, and was on the US sanctions list, so the Iranians appear to have targeted one of their own ships, possibly so that the Americans couldn't make use of it.

Significant strikes have been reported at the Jebel Ali petroleum terminals in Dubai, and satellite imagery of Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has confirmed that the base fuel point was hit, with the fuel bladders/blivets at this location burning overnight.

All total, drone and missile attacks have remained constant throughout the day and night, with the various Interior and Defense Ministries of the following nations providing data on how many interceptions have been conducted overnight:

Qatar: 65 ballistic missiles and 12 drones intercepted.
Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones intercepted.
Jordan: 49 missiles and drones (combined figure), 13 of which were intercepted.
Israel: Over 200 missiles and drones intercepted
U.A.E. - 137 missiles and 209 drones detected, 195 of which were intercepted successfully.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have acknowledged strikes targeting their countries, however neither have confirmed how many drones/missiles have been intercepted.

Analyst Comment: Note that these figures only encapsulate the munitions that were successfully intercepted and shot down; most countries don't want to publish the data of how many drones actually made it through their defenses, so the figure for how many strikes have been conducted so far is hard to discern. This time around all belligerents are exercising good operational security, so details of strikes are often hard to find via social media. This is most sharply demonstrated in Israel, where hundreds of strikes are occurring, but difficult to pinpoint on a map due to the exact location of strikes rarely being reported.

Pakistan: Overnight, riots broke out at the US Consulate General in Karachi, which rapidly transitioned into an attempt to breach the American compound. After some time, rioters breached the outer security cordon, and US Marines which had taken up defensive positions inside the facility opened fire on the intruders before they could breach the secondary line of security around the perimeter.

Analyst Comment: Details are extremely hard to verify, however local sources claim that a total of 9x Pakistani rioters were killed during the engagements so far, and the Marines have successfully held the Key Terrain around the Consulate for the past few hours. However tensions are rising, and if the videos of the riots are any indication, Pakistan is not up to the task of defending the American compound, as rioters were allowed to breach, destroy, and set the outer cordon of the American diplomatic post on fire, with no Pakistani security anywhere to be seen.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Around the United States, various efforts are underway to enhance the security posture of various locations and entities. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has activated service members to take part in Operation FURY SHIELD, a defensive operation to strengthen security at critical infrastructure sites around the state, in the event that retaliatory efforts via lone-wolf actors attempt to conduct attacks within the homeland. Similarly, the NYPD in New York is increasing patrols throughout the city, and several military bases around the United States remain at an elevated security posture.

Right now these efforts are probably being conducted out of an abundance of caution, however it does confirm that at least someone is thinking about the potential for events overseas, to impact the homeland in the form of terrorism. This has, of course, been a concern for decades, however based on the widening war in the Middle East, it would be wise to remain vigilant and situationally aware for the next few weeks, as the conflict continues to inflame tensions here at home.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock.

Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces.

Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines.

Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity.

Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation.

Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered.

UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight.

Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T *STENA IMPERATIVE*, as she was sitting in port.

Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon.

Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening.

Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport.

Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region.

Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack.

Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives?

Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed.

As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region.

All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF. SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND INVASION OF LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The Gulf War continues as Iranian forces begin shifting to strategic targets. Most of the drone/missile attacks overnight targeted oil production facilities, such as the Fujairah Industrial Zone in the UAE, which has been taken offline. Otherwise, the attacks on American installations continue, with the American Embassy in Riyadh being hit multiple times by drones overnight.

Bahrain: Significant riots have broken out around the country, as the majority-Shia population begins expressing dissent with the Sunni government, and more specifically the American presence within the nation. Saudi Forces crossed the bridge this morning with anti-riot forces to help quell the more kinetic protests, which have become intense over the past 24 hours.

Analyst Comment: Politics in Bahrain were complicated before the war, as the population is mostly Shia (and aligned with the Ayatollah), but the country is ruled by a Kingdom that is Sunni. Even before the shooting started the situation was tenuous at best, and the assassination of the Ayatollah might have been the spark needed to kick off a civil conflict within the island nation. This is a complicating factor for the United States, as Bahrain has long served as a major Center of Gravity for American combat power in the region. Now that some locals are getting rowdy (and are also aligned with Iran), this will make things more difficult.

Lebanon: This morning Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in the south, opening up another front so as to seize terrain along the border. Lebanese Army forces have withdrawn from the border as Israeli units advance.

Analyst Comment: It is not clear as to if this is a legitimate, full-scale ground invasion, or limited border incursions that Israel is known to do throughout southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli forces haven't crossed their limit of advance set during the height of the conflict two years ago.

United Kingdom: A stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh, which resulted in a standoff lasting several hours yesterday afternoon. One unidentified assailant began stabbing people an apartment building, which resulted in two people being wounded. After the attack, the suspect fled into the apartment building, which resulted in a standoff situation that lasted seven hours. Eventually, police were able to breach the building and detain the suspect.

Separately, in Birmingham a different stabbing attack was captured on film this morning, which involved an assailant stabbing a man on the street outside a Catholic school in Alum Rock. This attacker was arrested at the scene, and very few details remain public regarding his identity.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon the US State Department published the list of nations that Americans should evacuate from, which includes the entire Middle East. The "depart now" order has been issued for the nations of: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, and Yemen.

However, the US State Department has stated that Americans are on their own regarding evacuations. Even though the start of this combat operation was easily predicted down to the exact day (and nearly the exact hour) that it began, the United States somehow believes that they needed to maintain the element of surprise. The State Department believed that if they made attempts to evacuate the Middle East before the attack, the world would know that the war was imminent. This is also why many American bases appear to not be fortified as much as they could have been. In many cases, the Pentagon appears to not understand that their operation was very observable to the public, and their attempts to maintain the secrecy that they thought they had, resulted in little preparation in some areas.

False sense of operational security aside, what this means at the moment is logistical challenges because everyone is having to sit tight for the moment until the war calms down enough to make evacuation flights reliable. A handful of flights have been able to make it in and out of Dubai, despite heavy GPS jamming efforts in the region. The governments of Britain and Poland are tentatively looking to start militarily-organized evacuation flights throughout the region over the next few days, however details are not yet solidified regarding these efforts. Italy has already conducted the military evacuation of some of their citizens from the region, who arrived back in Italy this morning. So far, the official policy of the US State Department is that US Citizens are on their own, and not a single evacuation flight of Americans has yet taken place to evacuate American citizens from the region.

Right now, it might not seem like much, but time is in fact running out. Every single western-aligned Arab nation in the region is running out of interceptor missiles, with some nations reporting that they have burned through many years worth of their supply in just the past two days. Just this morning alone, the UAE blew through 172 interceptor missiles to take out 172 Iranian munitions that would have otherwise impacted targets inside their country.

While it is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, the rumor throughout the region is that the US has declined to restock these supplies, as most stockpiles of interceptor missiles have been allocated for Israel. As a result, this war is now a marathon to see who has more missiles, the Iranians or the other Persian Gulf states. At the moment, hundreds of drones and missiles are being intercepted out over the Gulf every day...the viral videos of drones slamming into targets on land are merely the munitions that have made it through missile defenses, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the true number of drones and missiles that are being launched. This has lead many to the false assumption that this war will fade away within a few days, because they can't visually see the interceptions that are taking place out over the water. However, it's now Day Four of this conflict, and the drone attacks have remained constant. When/if missile interceptors dwindle, these munitions will have nothing stopping them from reaching their targets.

Last night, President Trump stated that American stockpiles of munitions are at adequate levels, and that "Wars can be fought 'forever'" at current stockpile levels of medium-grade munitions. Despite the rather unfortunate choice of vocabulary in this post, the cold hard truth is that the US has not been supplying the Arab nations that are now getting hit, with the munitions necessary for their defense, or more importantly, the defense of American assets (and citizens) in the region. This will complicate the self-evacuation of Americans over the next few weeks, in addition to sharply increasing the potential for more widespread drone strikes over the next few days.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 4, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS ALLIED RADAR INSTALLATIONS TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. US NAVY SINKS IRANIAN FRIGATE OFF COAST OF SRI LANKA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The large-scale bombing of targets within Iran continues, with hundreds of bombs being dropped day and night. Around the region, overnight satellite imagery confirmed that Iranian forces have successfully struck multiple American Air Defense installations. Concerning American battle damage, the following radar arrays have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began.

Qatar: A/N FPS-132 Block 5 array - Hit, unknown damage.
Kuwait: 3x unknown radomes destroyed.
Bahrain: 2x AN/GSC-52B radomes destroyed.
UAE: THAAD battery at Al-Ruwais confirmed struck, damage unknown.
Saudi Arabia: A/N TPY-2 radar site (used with the THAAD system) struck at Prince Sultan Airbase.
Jordan: THAAD battery at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase possibly struck, unknown damage.

Analyst Comment: These radar arrays are not tiny fire-control systems mounted on a HMMWV, these are major strategic assets for air defense throughout the hemisphere, not just the Middle East. The FPS-132 alone costs over a billion dollars and there are only six of these sites in the entire world. Similarly, there are only nine THAAD batteries in existence globally, and the Iranians just hit one (possibly two) of them with a munition that cost about $30k each.

Strait of Hormuz: The war on the high seas continues as multiple commercial vessels have been struck by drones overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has reported a total of four commercial vessels being hit with unknown munitions over the past 24 hours, sustaining unknown damage. Two container ships, a BCC, and a tanker vessel were all hit or targeted by unknown munitions.

Analyst Comment: Merchant traffic within the Strait is mostly at a standstill, as nobody wants to run the the gauntlet and risk hundreds of millions of dollars if something goes wrong. At this present time, drone and missile attacks are effective enough to prevent any large merchant vessel from transiting the waterway.

Turkey: This morning the Turkish Defense Ministry stated that an Iranian ballistic missile was shot down in their nation. The missile was shot down by a US Navy vessel in the Eastern med, and the debris landed near the town of Dörtyol in the southeastern region of the country.

Lebanon: The Israeli ground invasion continues, with the IDF ordering the evacuation of Lebanese citizens to north of the Litani River. Roughly 15% of the land mass of Lebanon has been ordered to evacuate by Israel, as the IDF continues pushing north.

Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. The IRIS *DENA* was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the evacuations of Americans from the Middle East, so far the situation is complicated. The US State Department has provided emergency phone numbers for Americans stranded overseas to call, but reports are mixed regarding Americans actually being evacuated. Commercial flights remain sporadic, and most Americans stranded in the region are being told to sit tight until flights are available. Airspace closures remain throughout the entire region, and most airlines are attempting to fly out whenever they can. Dubai is the world's busiest airport, and so far it's been averaging a few dozen flights in and out each day, when previously the average was over a thousand flights per day. The smaller airport in Muscat, Oman is the next-closest hub from which evacuations are occurring, however it's nearly all private aircraft at this point since all commercial options have been booked.

Considering the damage that has likely been done to American radar sites around the region, if it is true that Early Warning capabilities have been degraded as a result of Iranian strikes, more serious targeting efforts could continue over the next few days. Although, the systems that have been hit are mostly for high-altitude ballistic missile threats, and not the smaller drones that are threatening the Gulf States most effectively at the moment. This is the fundamental nature of this war: Every missile interception has to succeed every single time, but the Iranians only have to be successful once to cause enough uncertainty both with maritime shipping and civil aviation, to cause problems.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 5, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MERCHANT VESSEL STRUCK BY EXPLOSIVE FASTBOAT IN PERSIAN GULF. DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS REMAIN CONSTANT AMONG GULF STATES. DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN AZERBAIJAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: Attacks on merchant shipping continue as an oil tanker that was anchored off the coast of Kuwait was struck by Iranian forces overnight. The vessel has been identified as the M/V SONAGOL NAMIBE, an oil tanker that is currently anchored in the group of vessels that are waiting for the risks in the Strait to subside.

Analyst Comment: Turns out, in such a small waterway, it's just as dangerous to remain at anchor. This strike is also different from the rest, as video evidence confirms that this was the result of a (possibly remote-controlled) Iranian fastboat conducting a strike on the vessel. For context, the Iranian Navy is split into two parts, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), which is the more traditional navy comprised of Line ships, and the Islamic Republic Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN). The majority of the IRIN has mostly been sunk over the past few days, however the smaller "speedboat navy" of the IRGC-N was created solely for the purpose of conducting asymmetric warfare, and is likely the culprit of this attack. As there are a few dozen other tankers parked immediately adjacent to the one that was struck, it is likely that more of these attacks will take place, as long as the IRGCN is able to.

Iran: Within the mainland itself, the large-scale bombing of Tehran and other major population centers continues alongside the bombing of most military bases throughout the country. Yesterday Israeli forces shot down an Iranian YAK-130 training aircraft, which had somehow managed to get airborne, and drone attacks launched by the Iranians continue as before.

Azerbaijan: Iranian forces launched a drone attack on the airport in the border town of Nakhchivan. The main terminal was hit by Shahed-type drones, and another undisclosed location in Shekarabad was also struck.

Analyst Comment: This is noteworthy as Azerbaijan was one of Iran's only regional allies. As a result, Azerbaijan has demanded an apology, and diplomatic relations are not great as two people were killed during the strikes on the airport. Officially, the Iranians have denied that they carried out the attack, stating that it was a false flag incident.

-HomeFront-

Utah: Overnight a killing spree was reported spanning multiple counties, involving multiple casualties. The incident began after an assailant murdered an elderly victim in Lyman. The attacker then stole her vehicle, and traveled to a hiking trailhead in Wayne County, where he murdered two women on the trail. This prompted a state-wide manhunt, which located the suspect after he had fled the scene, with the assailant eventually being located and arrested. As the suspect was arrested over the border in the state of Colorado, he has been identified as Ivan Miller.

Analyst Comment: At the moment, this appears to be a series of random murders, as none of the victims (nor the perpetrator) appears to have any connection to any sort of motive, other than random mental illness. More details are expected to emerge as the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: European evacuations of European citizens from the Middle East continues, with Spain dedicating military assets to getting some of their citizens out of the region over night. So far, zero Americans have been evacuated via American military means (which have the capabilities to fly when civilian aircraft cannot), and any American who has managed to get out has done so via commercial means. Commercial flights out of Dubai and Riyadh are occurring, they're just slow due to the sheer number of people trying to leave and the few aircraft landing between drone attacks.

As of this afternoon, D+6 (six days after this war began) the drone attacks have remained constant. All Gulf States have been publishing daily engagement numbers, and so far, the drone attacks have not really dwindled that much, despite assurances by many that the attacks have stopped. The drone attacks have not ceased...they are simply being intercepted out over the water. Some drones are making it through defenses to strike targets, with limited success. This afternoon several hotels were struck by Iranian drones in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which has served to remind everyone involved that the threats are real and persistent. Either way, drone sightings and close-in interceptions are enough to ground aircraft for a while, further adding to the evacuation bottlenecks that are stacking up around the region.

Regarding timelines, yesterday evening the estimates for the length of the operation have changed again, with SECWAR Hegseth stating that the operation is now planned to take an uncertain amount of time, potentially up to 8 weeks. The Secretary of War also stated that the United States is planned to achieve uncontested airspace in the skies over Iran within a few days, possibly up to a week. Either way, this confirms that after nearly a week, the airspace is still somewhat contested, despite the overwhelming large bombing raids witnessed so far.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS THE WAR OF LOGISTICS BECOMES PARAMOUNT. AMERICAN BASES THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE TO BE TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. TERRORISM CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE HOMELAND AS THE WAR CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with Iranian drone attacks remaining constant throughout the region. Dubai alone has been averaging around a hundred munitions being observed each day, nearly all of which are intercepted. Flights out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been able to increase somewhat, as Iranian drone attacks have shifted to targeting American military installations and petroleum infrastructure around the region. Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait have been primary targets for Iranian missiles/drones, with significant targeting efforts taking place over the past 24 hours.

Concerning American targeting efforts, bombings continue in Tehran and other major cities. Most military infrastructure throughout Iran has been destroyed, and President Trump has stated that no deal is sought, as only unconditional surrender is demanded.

Analyst Comment: This has been the blanket statement since the start of the war, but it's not entirely clear as to whom Iranian military forces are supposed to surrender to. Right now, any Iranian who wishes to stop fighting doesn't really have any way to declare that intent. As the United States and Israel rather confidently keep assassinating any sort of political leadership within Iran, it's not known who would even have the authority to sign surrender papers at this point.

-HomeFront-

USA: Various counterterrorism and law enforcement agencies have been progressively increasing security measures at critical sites around the nation, due to the increased potential for terrorism to take place within the United States as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. NORTHCOM has raised the force protection posture at most North American military installations, with the Trusted Traveler program being temporarily halted while terrorism concerns are elevated.

Analyst Comment: Right now, the risk of Iranian government-sponsored combatants engaging targets within the homeland is fairly low. However, due to the prevalence of 5th Generation Warfare being common in the modern world, what is much more likely is the co-opting of the Gulf War by other unrelated groups for their own gain. In short, there probably aren't that many Iranian sleeper agents in the US, but there are dozens of other groups seeking to make a name for themselves, or otherwise hijack national attention for their own gain. As always, predicting when and where security threats will pop up is hard, so increased vigilance is recommended.

Washington D.C. - DHS Secretary Noem has been transitioned to a new role, with Senator Markwayne Mullin from Oklahoma being slated to replace her within the next few days.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Of note, the satellite imagery company Planet Labs has imposed a 96-hour-delay policy with their satellite imagery, so as to prevent their imagery from being used for targeting purposes. As this is an American company, this makes perfect sense at first, as the modern world of commercial satellite imagery within the civilian space has the possibility to impact the war. However, this move is almost certainly not to prevent the Iranians from obtaining targeting data, and implementing this policy a week after the war began (and after American radar sites have been targeted), is akin to shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.

The Iranians are being fed targeting data of their own from the Chinese, who have been all to happy to highlight American losses with their own satellite constellations, which the United States does not control. And though it is always suspect due to the trustworthiness of the source, the Chinese have been focusing on highlighting specific targets for the Iranians to strike....and there's nothing the United States can do about it.

Concerning the next phases of the war, indications and warnings are mounting of the operation shifting into the next phase. This morning the USS *FORD* CSG transited the Suez Canal, heading south into the Red Sea. Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, the hospital that is the main medical hub for the CENTCOM AOR, confirmed that all prenatal care has been suspended until further notice, so that the medical center can have flexibility in treating combat casualties. On the political front, rhetoric concerning a potential boots-on-ground phase of the operation has sharply increased over the past few days, though no specific decisions have been made public.

In short, this could all be nothing, or it could be something. These very thin data points could be the early indicators of the war expanding in scope. In Washington, absolutely zero sentiments indicate that the war will be over anytime soon, and combat operations throughout Iran are expected to remain constant over the next few weeks at minimum. It's been seven days since the war began, and the USS *LINCOLN* CSG is still holding well outside the Strait of Hormuz, which is a solid indicator that the despite the overwhelming strikes throughout the country, enough risk remains to prevent bringing a carrier into the line of fire more directly. The arrival of a second aircraft carrier in a few days may change this, but as of right now, the Iranians are able to strike American bases and petroleum facilities just enough to indicate that risks remain constant throughout the region.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/lQjKsIRqNLQ

//The Wire//2300Z March 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES NEW YORK AS PROTESTERS TARGETED WITH IEDS. AMERICAN BOMBING OF IRAN CONTINUES AS IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REGULARLY TARGET OIL INFRASTRUCTURE IN MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The war continues, with both American strikes on Tehran, and Iranian strikes on Tel Aviv continuing over the weekend. The American 'Shock and Awe' campaign continues day and night, with increasingly more substantial bombings taking place over the weekend. Iranian drone attacks continue as before, with several strikes of note being carried out over the weekend. As of this morning, the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE is still on fire from last night's attacks. The BAPCO refinery in Bahrain was also struck again several times over the past few days, along with the desalination plant in Ma'ameer. The fuel point at Kuwait International Airport was also struck over the weekend, as civilian flights throughout Kuwait remain grounded until further notice due to Iranian targeting efforts.

Strait of Hormuz: The impacts to shipping remain constant, with one commercial vessel reporting being struck by a drone in the Saudi port of Jubail on Saturday. This morning BAPCO declared a force majeure for their contracts, indicating that they are unable to meet the obligations of their contracts, due to the war impacting operations.

Turkey: This morning Turkish authorities stated that another Iranian ballistic missile had been intercepted in their airspace. The missile was reportedly shot down by a US Navy vessel stationed in the eastern Med.

Norway: An explosion was reported at the US Embassy in Oslo, as an unidentified assailant placed an IED at the entrance to the facility Saturday night. Norwegian officials have stated that the incident is being investigated as a possible terror attack, and photos of the suspect have been released, as the suspect remains at large. No further details have been provided on the composition of the suspected explosive device, however the investigation is ongoing.

-HomeFront-

New York: On Saturday, an anti-Islam protest outside of Mayor Mamdani's residence was attacked by counter protesters, which involved terrorists attacking demonstrators with IEDs. Initially, groups of protesters were separated by the NYPD: The group protesting against Mamdani (and against Islam in general) was separated from a group of counterprotesters by pedestrian barriers as is customary for events where protesters have a high likelihood of attacking each other. In this case, two of the counterprotesters arrived with IEDs, lit their fuses, and threw them over to the main protest group, targeting the small group of about a dozen anti-Islam protesters. Both of the IEDs that were thrown failed to detonate, as the impact with the ground extinguished the lit fuses. The suspects were immediately detained at the scene, and a search of the area revealed additional IEDs located in a parked vehicle adjacent to the event. The two suspects have been identified as Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, both residents of Pennsylvania. More details are expected as the investigation continues.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: A bit of back story is needed to explain the context for how important the attack in New York City actually was. The protest that started everything was an "Americans Against Islamification" protest organized by Jake Lang, who has become infamous for going into Islamic strongholds, and holding protests that are intended to inflame tensions. This context may result in many people being tempted to roll their eyes and dismiss this attack due to the history of Lang's protests usually being rather theatrical. For instance, the day before the IED attack on his group he crashed a vigil to the Ayatollah, driving by the event in a Uhaul van with a goat and an American flag. Theatrics aside, however, Saturday's IED attack was a VERY big deal that should not be ignored as a publicity stunt, because it's possible that this attack inadvertently exposed a much wider and more substantial terrorist network.

This hunch is due to the composition of the explosive devices themselves...these were not the standard low-grade pipe-bombs that are the usual terrorist go-to for attacks like this. NYPD officials have stated that the devices were comprised of Triacetone triperoxide (TATP), which is a powerful Homemade Explosive (HME) compound that is highly unstable if made in an improvised weapons lab.

Speculating a bit regarding this attack, it is unlikely that a terrorist group would build such substantial IEDs solely to target a dozen people at a pop-up protest. These take time to make, and the protest was only announced a few hours before it began. It is possible to make a batch of TATP in a day, however it's very unlikely that the explosives were made for this specific event. And for a bomb maker who seeks to avoid getting the nickname "lefty" these explosive compounds require some level of competency and experience to make.

As a result, it's far more likely that these explosives were intended for some other target, before the last-minute protest caused the target to shift to the most emotionally-motivating target. It's possible that a terrorist cell saw Lang's defilement of the Ayatollah's vigil the previous day, and decided to take some of the pre-made explosives to commit a terror attack the next morning when he announced the protest at Mamdani's residence. If this theory bears any weight, it's possible that there are other individuals elsewhere (either acting on their own, or in coordination with more organized groups) which are probably sitting on similar armaments. Exactly where these cells are located is anyone's guess, but since the two attackers themselves travelled all the way from Pennsylvania to conduct the terror attack, these threats are not endemic to New York City alone.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE. SHIPS BEGIN ATTEMPTING TO RUN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID IRANIAN TARGETING EFFORTS. US CONSULATE IN TORONTO TARGETED IN SMALL ARMS ATTACK.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The Planet satellite imagery company has announced an extension of their holding of satellite imagery throughout the Middle East. Planet had previously instituted a 96-hour hold on all imagery of American installations in the region, for the Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons of preventing Iranians from using up-to-date satellite imagery in their targeting efforts. As of this morning, Planet has extended this delay to two weeks, with all imagery of non-Iranian terrain being withheld for 14 days from all customers.

Strait of Hormuz: The Strait remains semi-officially closed, as most commercial vessels refuse to accept the risk of trying to run the gauntlet. Iranian forces continue to strike cargo vessels, but some vessels are making the attempt to transit the Strait, amid these threats. This morning, one commercial vessel was reportedly struck by a drone (or had a near-miss), highlighting the risks for commercial shipping.

Analyst Comment: Interestingly enough, some vessels have pulled a Leeroy Jenkins, and plowed through the Strait over the past few days with their transponders off, hoping for the best. Other vessels have also tried the old standby trick that was discovered during the Houthi targeting in the Red Sea last year...they're changing their AIS transponder data to claim affiliation with China, in hopes of being allowed free passage. This has worked for a couple of dozen vessels so far, but the targeting of shipping in the Persian Gulf is still too random to draw a conclusion as to what's actually being targeted by the Iranians.

Korean Peninsula: South Korean officials have voiced concern regarding the reallocation of American strategic resources from the region. This morning, the South Korean media group Yonhap published photos of Americans disassembling a THAAD battery, which is being relocated to the Middle East to replace at least one of the sites that was damaged/destroyed by Iranian targeting efforts.

Canada: This morning an active shooter was reported at the U.S. Consulate General in Toronto. Toronto Police state that a white Honda CRV approached the facility, stopping at the main entrance. Two suspects exited the vehicle and fired shots from handguns at the Consulate, before egressing from the scene. Multiple shell casings were recovered from the shooting site, and the shooters remain at large.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: National security is of course a higher priority than providing up-to-date satellite imagery of the Middle East for the civilian world; as unfortunate as it is, censorship is a critical part of warfare and there's absolutely nothing that can be done about it. However, the timing and nature of this censorship occurring now, is quite interesting. As a reminder, the Chinese have provided extremely detailed imagery of American equipment losses since the start of the war via their own satellite networks, so the Iranians don't exactly need American satellites at all.

This seemingly unimportant satellite imagery delay can also serve as an indicator for the expected timeline of the war...requesting American satellite companies to intentionally withhold their imagery from the public for two full weeks is not something that is done if the war is coming to a close. Right now, a lot of rhetoric is flying concerning the potential end of the conflict, with analysis of President Trump's remarks on the war focusing on how long the war might last, or what might happen over the next few days/weeks. At the moment, we cannot make decisions based on this rhetoric, as it changes by the hour and is frequently contradictory.

What we can do, is look at the facts. American companies are being ordered to withhold satellite imagery from the region for two weeks. American positions continue being targeted by Iranian drones, to include another strike at the THAAD battery in Abu Dhabi this morning, and a strike at Al Udeid Airbase last night. The United States continues to level and crater most military installations throughout Iran with overwhelming dominance, to include bombing sites which have already been bombed. Dubai and the GCC states at large continue to be targeted daily by Iranian drones, and flights are routinely grounded due these targeting efforts. All of these data points indicate that this conflict may last for some time. All it takes is a phone call to stop the bombing and bring everybody home, and considering President Trump's style of rapidly changing policies, this could very well happen. But as of right now, the ground truth does not reflect any "off-ramps" being feasible for a while.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day.

Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing.

Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy.

Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others.

Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way.

As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate.

Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//