QCP New York Colour - 22 Apr 24
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
QCP New York Colour - 23 Apr 24
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.
QCP New York Colour - 24 Apr 24
- The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term.
- Notably, there was concentrated selling of BTC end-May 80k calls in yesterday's NY session (over 1000 BTC) which crushed both front end vols and forwards.
- May vols are now close to 60% and the May forward was pushed down to 5% yield at one point! The forward curve is now upward sloping with only Sep and further out still yielding over 10%...for now.
Trade Idea:
New Product - ZCC (Zero Coupon Convertible)
With yield compressing in a consolidation phase, the ZCC strategy stands out as it provides an upfront payment that comes with protection on the downside.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC ZCC (28-Jun expiry, 55k strike, 50k protection)
Upfront payment of $3200 per BTC (33%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 50k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k.
2. BTC ZCC (27-Sep expiry, 50k strike, 40k protection)
Upfront payment of $6300 per BTC (30%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 40k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 40k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 50k.
- The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term.
- Notably, there was concentrated selling of BTC end-May 80k calls in yesterday's NY session (over 1000 BTC) which crushed both front end vols and forwards.
- May vols are now close to 60% and the May forward was pushed down to 5% yield at one point! The forward curve is now upward sloping with only Sep and further out still yielding over 10%...for now.
Trade Idea:
New Product - ZCC (Zero Coupon Convertible)
With yield compressing in a consolidation phase, the ZCC strategy stands out as it provides an upfront payment that comes with protection on the downside.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC ZCC (28-Jun expiry, 55k strike, 50k protection)
Upfront payment of $3200 per BTC (33%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 50k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k.
2. BTC ZCC (27-Sep expiry, 50k strike, 40k protection)
Upfront payment of $6300 per BTC (30%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 40k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 40k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 50k.
QCP Asia Colour - 25 Apr 24
- Heavy selling of BTC options over the last 2 days has seen the vol curve collapse . BTC May vols have dropped by over 12% in 3 days!
- This is the result of spot price being stuck in a tight range and the basis yields drying up. The desk has seen many customers pivot back to option selling strategies.
- Strategies like HYPP (below) take advantage of the low vol levels to express a medium term bullish view.
Trade Idea:
BTC HYPP (High Yield Participation Product)
Payout: 50%pa each week BTC spot fixes above 80k
Expiry: 19 Jul (3 months)
This is a zero-downside product. At expiry, the full USD principal is returned.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
- Heavy selling of BTC options over the last 2 days has seen the vol curve collapse . BTC May vols have dropped by over 12% in 3 days!
- This is the result of spot price being stuck in a tight range and the basis yields drying up. The desk has seen many customers pivot back to option selling strategies.
- Strategies like HYPP (below) take advantage of the low vol levels to express a medium term bullish view.
Trade Idea:
BTC HYPP (High Yield Participation Product)
Payout: 50%pa each week BTC spot fixes above 80k
Expiry: 19 Jul (3 months)
This is a zero-downside product. At expiry, the full USD principal is returned.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
QCP Weekend Brief - 27 Apr 24
- This week saw BTC vols drastically compress, from 70% to 50%.
- The downside skew in ETH risk reversals have also deepened to -13% in the front-end, possibly in anticipation of further delays in the SECs approval of ETH spot ETF.
- Has the market lost faith or is this just a short pause in a longer-term bull run?
- There is a potentially positive catalyst next week as the HK BTC and ETH spot ETFs begin trading. Interest is growing in what could be a gateway for the inflow of Asian institutional capital.
Trade Idea:
If you are still a bullish believer, a consolidating market could be the best time to accumulate longs in both BTC and ETH. Deploying a longer tenor takes advantage of the higher vols further out, given the steepness of the vol curve (Dec trading at a 15% premium to May).
BTC Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy BTC weekly at 51,500 (20% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 63.7k. upper barrier: 73.5k]
ETH Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy ETH weekly at 2450 (22% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 3140, upper barrier: 3625]
Please ask directly in your trading chat for more details
- This week saw BTC vols drastically compress, from 70% to 50%.
- The downside skew in ETH risk reversals have also deepened to -13% in the front-end, possibly in anticipation of further delays in the SECs approval of ETH spot ETF.
- Has the market lost faith or is this just a short pause in a longer-term bull run?
- There is a potentially positive catalyst next week as the HK BTC and ETH spot ETFs begin trading. Interest is growing in what could be a gateway for the inflow of Asian institutional capital.
Trade Idea:
If you are still a bullish believer, a consolidating market could be the best time to accumulate longs in both BTC and ETH. Deploying a longer tenor takes advantage of the higher vols further out, given the steepness of the vol curve (Dec trading at a 15% premium to May).
BTC Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy BTC weekly at 51,500 (20% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 63.7k. upper barrier: 73.5k]
ETH Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy ETH weekly at 2450 (22% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 3140, upper barrier: 3625]
Please ask directly in your trading chat for more details
QCP Weekend Macro - 28 Apr
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
QCP Weekend Macro - 28 Apr
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
QCP London & New York Colour - 29 Apr 24
- We saw large and aggressive BTC call buying in the London session (about 500x JUN 65k C) but vols continued drifting lower in spite of the significant option buying.
- Although short-term realised volatility is indeed depressed given the tight spot range, the market is possibly overly complacent given prevailing macro developments (Middle East conflict, potential US stagflation, Yen weakness, US fiscal injection, etc).
- Perp funding is largely flat with many Altcoins showing negative funding which opens up a path for speculators to build leveraged long positions.
Trade Ideas (BTC spot ref: 62k)
1. Low-risk yield generating strategy
BTC ZCC (27-DEC)
Upfront payout: 20%pa
Strike: 45k
Protection Level: 40k
2. Zero-downside moonshot strategy
BTC Enhanced Sharkfin (27-DEC)
Max Payout: 69% pa
Guaranteed Coupon: 3% pa
Call Strike: 80k
Knockout: 115k
- We saw large and aggressive BTC call buying in the London session (about 500x JUN 65k C) but vols continued drifting lower in spite of the significant option buying.
- Although short-term realised volatility is indeed depressed given the tight spot range, the market is possibly overly complacent given prevailing macro developments (Middle East conflict, potential US stagflation, Yen weakness, US fiscal injection, etc).
- Perp funding is largely flat with many Altcoins showing negative funding which opens up a path for speculators to build leveraged long positions.
Trade Ideas (BTC spot ref: 62k)
1. Low-risk yield generating strategy
BTC ZCC (27-DEC)
Upfront payout: 20%pa
Strike: 45k
Protection Level: 40k
2. Zero-downside moonshot strategy
BTC Enhanced Sharkfin (27-DEC)
Max Payout: 69% pa
Guaranteed Coupon: 3% pa
Call Strike: 80k
Knockout: 115k
QCP London & New York Colour - 30 Apr 24
- The Hong Kong BTC and ETH spot ETFs kicked off today with terribly disappointing volumes. BTC saw $8.5m and ETH saw $2.5m in volume.
- This might be an indication that institutional crypto interest is concentrated in the US while Asian interest is more private wealth focused and natively dominated.
- The market is trading heavy on the back of this with BTC touching 61k and ETH close to 3k.
- With Amazon earnings and CZ's sentencing coming out this evening we might be looking at a volatile session into New York hours.
Trade Ideas:
Short term downside hedges that are relatively low-cost
(spot ref: BTC 61.2k. ETH 3010)
BTC 31-May (58k Put / KO 50k)
Max payout: 8.25x
Cost per BTC: $850
ETH 31-May (2700 Put / KO 2200)
Max payout: 10.63x
Cost per ETH: $47
- The Hong Kong BTC and ETH spot ETFs kicked off today with terribly disappointing volumes. BTC saw $8.5m and ETH saw $2.5m in volume.
- This might be an indication that institutional crypto interest is concentrated in the US while Asian interest is more private wealth focused and natively dominated.
- The market is trading heavy on the back of this with BTC touching 61k and ETH close to 3k.
- With Amazon earnings and CZ's sentencing coming out this evening we might be looking at a volatile session into New York hours.
Trade Ideas:
Short term downside hedges that are relatively low-cost
(spot ref: BTC 61.2k. ETH 3010)
BTC 31-May (58k Put / KO 50k)
Max payout: 8.25x
Cost per BTC: $850
ETH 31-May (2700 Put / KO 2200)
Max payout: 10.63x
Cost per ETH: $47
QCP London & New York Colour - 1 May 24
- The US dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything.
- USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well.
- Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse.
- There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it.
- Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip.
- Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end), it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.
Trade Idea:
If you think we've already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection.
(spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910)
BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level).
Threshold: 55k
Strike: 50k
Protection: 45k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price.
ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level).
Threshold: 2,800
Strike: 2,500
Protection: 2,200
At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.
- The US dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything.
- USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well.
- Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse.
- There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it.
- Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip.
- Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end), it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.
Trade Idea:
If you think we've already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection.
(spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910)
BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level).
Threshold: 55k
Strike: 50k
Protection: 45k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price.
ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level).
Threshold: 2,800
Strike: 2,500
Protection: 2,200
At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.
QCP London & New York Colour - 2 May 24
- Both FOMC and QRA were more dovish than expected.
- At FOMC, Powell said that the Fed is not looking to hike rates and announced the slowing of Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60bn monthly to $25bn.
- For QRA, the Treasury will keep issuances for longer maturities unchanged, reducing fears of a spike in longer-term yields.
- This should help to push down the USD rally which is positive for risk assets.
- BTC has bounced off the 56.5k low and has decisively broke above 58k. ETH has rallied close to 3k again.
- Will we now see a resumption of the bull market?
Trade Ideas:
Zero-cost strategy for max upside on a big bounce in spot price!
(spot ref: BTC 58.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 31-May
Strikes: Sell 56k Put + Buy 60k Call (75k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $15,000 per BTC or 337% pa if BTC spot price is just under 75k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 56k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 56k price.
- Both FOMC and QRA were more dovish than expected.
- At FOMC, Powell said that the Fed is not looking to hike rates and announced the slowing of Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60bn monthly to $25bn.
- For QRA, the Treasury will keep issuances for longer maturities unchanged, reducing fears of a spike in longer-term yields.
- This should help to push down the USD rally which is positive for risk assets.
- BTC has bounced off the 56.5k low and has decisively broke above 58k. ETH has rallied close to 3k again.
- Will we now see a resumption of the bull market?
Trade Ideas:
Zero-cost strategy for max upside on a big bounce in spot price!
(spot ref: BTC 58.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 31-May
Strikes: Sell 56k Put + Buy 60k Call (75k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $15,000 per BTC or 337% pa if BTC spot price is just under 75k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 56k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 56k price.
QCP Weekend Macro - 4 May 24
- Friday's US data releases provided a big bullish boost to markets. A quick follow-on to the dovish FOMC and QRA which lifted prices off the lows just the day before.
- Employment data was weaker than expected across the board which dampens the fear of rising inflation (Non-Farm Payrolls at 175k v 240k, Unemployment Rate at 3.9% v 3.8%, Average Hourly Earnings MoM was 0.2% v 0.3%).
- The stars are aligning with both the Fed and Treasury leaning dovish plus weaker data, which reopens the path for rates cuts this year.
- US 2-Year Yields collapsed from over 5% to almost 4.7%! Does this mark the end of the rampaging USD dollar rally?
- The crypto markets loved this, especially the BTC spot ETFs which saw net inflows across the board totaling $378.3m. Even GBTC was posting a positive inflow number for the first time!
Trade Ideas:
Don't fight the Fed. The Bullish ERKO Seagull strategy suggested on Thursday is already in-the-money.
If you think the bull market has resumed and would still like to buy BTC or ETH below the recent lows of 56.5k and 2814, you can still do so with Accumulators.
BTC Accumulators
(spot ref: 63.5k)
1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry)
Buy BTC at 52k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 73k.
2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry)
Buy BTC at 55k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 70k.
ETH Accumulators
(spot ref: 3,100)
1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry)
Buy ETH at 2500 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660.
2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry)
Buy ETH at 2700 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660.
*Please check in your trading chat for details and strategy customisations.
- Friday's US data releases provided a big bullish boost to markets. A quick follow-on to the dovish FOMC and QRA which lifted prices off the lows just the day before.
- Employment data was weaker than expected across the board which dampens the fear of rising inflation (Non-Farm Payrolls at 175k v 240k, Unemployment Rate at 3.9% v 3.8%, Average Hourly Earnings MoM was 0.2% v 0.3%).
- The stars are aligning with both the Fed and Treasury leaning dovish plus weaker data, which reopens the path for rates cuts this year.
- US 2-Year Yields collapsed from over 5% to almost 4.7%! Does this mark the end of the rampaging USD dollar rally?
- The crypto markets loved this, especially the BTC spot ETFs which saw net inflows across the board totaling $378.3m. Even GBTC was posting a positive inflow number for the first time!
Trade Ideas:
Don't fight the Fed. The Bullish ERKO Seagull strategy suggested on Thursday is already in-the-money.
If you think the bull market has resumed and would still like to buy BTC or ETH below the recent lows of 56.5k and 2814, you can still do so with Accumulators.
BTC Accumulators
(spot ref: 63.5k)
1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry)
Buy BTC at 52k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 73k.
2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry)
Buy BTC at 55k every Friday as long as BTC spot price is under 70k.
ETH Accumulators
(spot ref: 3,100)
1. 35 weeks (27-Dec expiry)
Buy ETH at 2500 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660.
2. 20 weeks (13-Sep expiry)
Buy ETH at 2700 every Friday as long as ETH spot price is under 3660.
*Please check in your trading chat for details and strategy customisations.
QCP NY Colour - 6 May 24
- We are seeing some bullish follow-through in vol and rates following the reversal bounce from Friday and into the weekend:
1. BTC risk reversals have gone positive (calls more expensive than puts)
2. Renewed demand for BTC Sep 75k & 100k calls
3. BTC forward yields back above 10%
- ETH is not seeing the same kind of positivity with risk reversals still at -4% likely due to concerns about the SEC not approving the ETH spot ETF deadlines for VanEck and Ark21 on 23 and 24 May.
- However, this does mean the market would be caught offside on ETH if there was a surprise approval. Worth a topside bet perhaps?
Trade idea:
We still prefer a structurally bullish BTC trade with significant downside protection and exponential return on the topside.
(spot ref: 63k)
Sell ERKI + Buy ERKO (27 Dec)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $48,000 per BTC notional
- Sell 50k Put with 40k Knock-In
- Buy 75k Call with 123k Knock-Out
What does all this mean?
At expiry,
1. If spot is just under 123k, your profit is $48k (123k-75k)
2. As long as spot if above 75k, there is profit.
3. If spot is anywhere between 40k and 75k, nothing happens (no loss, no profit)
4. Even if spot is below the 50k Put, there will be no loss as the Put is only live if spot expires below 40k protection level.
5. If spot is below 40k, you will buy BTC at 50k.
- We are seeing some bullish follow-through in vol and rates following the reversal bounce from Friday and into the weekend:
1. BTC risk reversals have gone positive (calls more expensive than puts)
2. Renewed demand for BTC Sep 75k & 100k calls
3. BTC forward yields back above 10%
- ETH is not seeing the same kind of positivity with risk reversals still at -4% likely due to concerns about the SEC not approving the ETH spot ETF deadlines for VanEck and Ark21 on 23 and 24 May.
- However, this does mean the market would be caught offside on ETH if there was a surprise approval. Worth a topside bet perhaps?
Trade idea:
We still prefer a structurally bullish BTC trade with significant downside protection and exponential return on the topside.
(spot ref: 63k)
Sell ERKI + Buy ERKO (27 Dec)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $48,000 per BTC notional
- Sell 50k Put with 40k Knock-In
- Buy 75k Call with 123k Knock-Out
What does all this mean?
At expiry,
1. If spot is just under 123k, your profit is $48k (123k-75k)
2. As long as spot if above 75k, there is profit.
3. If spot is anywhere between 40k and 75k, nothing happens (no loss, no profit)
4. Even if spot is below the 50k Put, there will be no loss as the Put is only live if spot expires below 40k protection level.
5. If spot is below 40k, you will buy BTC at 50k.
QCP Announcement - 7 May 24
We have received In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)!
We announced that we have received In-Principle Approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to conduct regulated activities. We are also the first digital assets market maker and broker-dealer firm from Singapore to achieve this IPA 🎉
Read more in our press release: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/press-release-qcp-receives-in-principle-approval-in-the-abu-dhabi-global-market-adgm/
We have received In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)!
We announced that we have received In-Principle Approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to conduct regulated activities. We are also the first digital assets market maker and broker-dealer firm from Singapore to achieve this IPA 🎉
Read more in our press release: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/press-release-qcp-receives-in-principle-approval-in-the-abu-dhabi-global-market-adgm/
QCP Group
Press Release: QCP receives In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) - QCP Capital May 7, 2024
First digital assets market maker and broker-dealer from Singapore to achieve an In-Principle Approval from the FSRA 7 May 2024, Singapore – QCP, a global institutional digital assets company, today announced that they have received In-Principle Approval…
QCP New York Colour - 8 May 24
- In this quiet market, we've probably seen the most action in the vol spread between BTC and ETH.
- BTC May vols have been driven below 50% while ETH has been driven higher close to 60%.
- The logical reason for this is the market pricing in volatility over the ETH spot ETF approval announcements. - In terms of flow, we've seen a few large punters buying very short-term (less than 2-week) ETH calls and puts in around 10,000 ETH notionals trying to catch the breakout of the range. We're also seeing familiar ETH call over-writers buying back end-May calls in size.
- Overall, we are seeing nothing particularly meaningful as the market grinds in a narrowing range.
Trade Ideas:
We still like to collect more BTC at deep discounts while the market consolidates with Accumulators.
BTC Accumulator (20-weeks)
Buy BTC spot at 15% discount (53,000 level) every Friday observation, as long as spot price is under 66k.
(spot ref: 62.3k)
- In this quiet market, we've probably seen the most action in the vol spread between BTC and ETH.
- BTC May vols have been driven below 50% while ETH has been driven higher close to 60%.
- The logical reason for this is the market pricing in volatility over the ETH spot ETF approval announcements. - In terms of flow, we've seen a few large punters buying very short-term (less than 2-week) ETH calls and puts in around 10,000 ETH notionals trying to catch the breakout of the range. We're also seeing familiar ETH call over-writers buying back end-May calls in size.
- Overall, we are seeing nothing particularly meaningful as the market grinds in a narrowing range.
Trade Ideas:
We still like to collect more BTC at deep discounts while the market consolidates with Accumulators.
BTC Accumulator (20-weeks)
Buy BTC spot at 15% discount (53,000 level) every Friday observation, as long as spot price is under 66k.
(spot ref: 62.3k)
QCP London & New York Colour - 9 May 24
- The US dollar is inching higher again, placing a cap on risk assets including crypto.
- The Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%. This follows the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which cut earlier in March and the ECB is also expected to cut in June.
- The USD is rallying as the market prices out expectations that other central banks will wait for the Fed to cut before following, especially as economic performance and inflation levels continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world.
- Markets are currently pricing in two Fed cuts this year, with the first cut only expected in Sep.
- To make things worse, BTC spot ETF flows have flattened out again after strong inflows from last Friday and the recent Monday.
- The desk is not seeing any bearish panic but more trades that express a lower volatility, consolidation view.
Trade Ideas:
We remain structurally positive BTC into the end of the year and on this dip we like topside strategies that provide the best risk-reward.
The following uses the enhanced upfront yield from ZCC to buy double the topside exposure from ERKO calls. Unleveraged with protection on the downside while ramping up returns on the topside. (spot ref: 61k)
BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $80,000 per BTC notional
Expiry: 27-Dec
Put Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Call Strike: 70,000
Call Knockout: 110,000
Collateral requirement: $55k per BTC notional
What does it mean?
At expiry,
1. If spot is just under 110k, your profit is $80k (110k-70k) x2
2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call
3. If spot is anywhere between 45k and 70k or above 110k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money
4. If spot is below 45k, you will buy BTC at 55k
- The US dollar is inching higher again, placing a cap on risk assets including crypto.
- The Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75%. This follows the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which cut earlier in March and the ECB is also expected to cut in June.
- The USD is rallying as the market prices out expectations that other central banks will wait for the Fed to cut before following, especially as economic performance and inflation levels continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world.
- Markets are currently pricing in two Fed cuts this year, with the first cut only expected in Sep.
- To make things worse, BTC spot ETF flows have flattened out again after strong inflows from last Friday and the recent Monday.
- The desk is not seeing any bearish panic but more trades that express a lower volatility, consolidation view.
Trade Ideas:
We remain structurally positive BTC into the end of the year and on this dip we like topside strategies that provide the best risk-reward.
The following uses the enhanced upfront yield from ZCC to buy double the topside exposure from ERKO calls. Unleveraged with protection on the downside while ramping up returns on the topside. (spot ref: 61k)
BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $80,000 per BTC notional
Expiry: 27-Dec
Put Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Call Strike: 70,000
Call Knockout: 110,000
Collateral requirement: $55k per BTC notional
What does it mean?
At expiry,
1. If spot is just under 110k, your profit is $80k (110k-70k) x2
2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call
3. If spot is anywhere between 45k and 70k or above 110k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money
4. If spot is below 45k, you will buy BTC at 55k
QCP London / New York Colour – 10 May 24
- Vols continue to drag as prices fail to break out of the narrow range (BTC May into the 40s and ETH May in the mid 50s).
- We are leaning on two possible bullish factors from here into year-end:
1. US elections will conclude in Nov this year and historically markets tend to be bullish into elections. Specific to this election, Trump has been making crypto-friendly overtures which could illicit a a similar tone from Biden as both try to win the crypto vote. Could this result in crypto-positive rhetoric as the respective campaigns get underway?
2. Unless the Fed clearly rules out rate cuts or hints at rate hikes, it seems like the markets will continue to price in cuts especially on the back of any signs of the US economy slowing down and with other Central Banks cutting as well. These expectations are likely to keep a bullish tone in the market for awhile.
Trade Idea:
Updating levels from yesterday's suggested strategy which we think offers good downside protection for high convexity on the topside for zero cost!
(spot ref: 63k)
BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $100,000 per BTC notional
Expiry: 27-Dec
Put Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 50,000
Call Strike: 70,000
Call Knockout: 120,000
Collateral requirement: $60k per BTC notional
What does it mean?
At expiry:
1. If spot is just under 120k, your profit is $100k (120k-70k) x2
2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call
3. If spot is anywhere between 50k and 70k or above 120k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money
4. If spot is below 50k, you will buy BTC at 60k
- Vols continue to drag as prices fail to break out of the narrow range (BTC May into the 40s and ETH May in the mid 50s).
- We are leaning on two possible bullish factors from here into year-end:
1. US elections will conclude in Nov this year and historically markets tend to be bullish into elections. Specific to this election, Trump has been making crypto-friendly overtures which could illicit a a similar tone from Biden as both try to win the crypto vote. Could this result in crypto-positive rhetoric as the respective campaigns get underway?
2. Unless the Fed clearly rules out rate cuts or hints at rate hikes, it seems like the markets will continue to price in cuts especially on the back of any signs of the US economy slowing down and with other Central Banks cutting as well. These expectations are likely to keep a bullish tone in the market for awhile.
Trade Idea:
Updating levels from yesterday's suggested strategy which we think offers good downside protection for high convexity on the topside for zero cost!
(spot ref: 63k)
BTC ZCC + ERKO Call (2x)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $100,000 per BTC notional
Expiry: 27-Dec
Put Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 50,000
Call Strike: 70,000
Call Knockout: 120,000
Collateral requirement: $60k per BTC notional
What does it mean?
At expiry:
1. If spot is just under 120k, your profit is $100k (120k-70k) x2
2. As long as spot if above 70k, there is profit from the 70k call
3. If spot is anywhere between 50k and 70k or above 120k, there is no loss or profit as the structure expires out-of-the-money
4. If spot is below 50k, you will buy BTC at 60k
QCP Asia and Europe Colour - 13 May 24
- Spot has recovered most of Friday's losses, with the 5% drop in BTC to 60k on Friday triggered by hawkish Fed comments.
- We think price action could chop around here as the market digests fundamentals from the several macro events lined up this week:
Tue: US PPI, Powell to speak
Wed: CPI, Retail Sales
Thu: Unemployment Claims
- Given the strong bounce from last week's lows, 60k still seems like a strong support level barring any hawkish surprises (BTC risk reversals are at neutral levels).
- Overall, the desk still remains structurally bullish BTC even as spot continues to consolidate here while the market gets more clarity from the Fed.
- Options flows today saw buyers of BTC Jun topside (65k) and BTC Dec topside (90k-100k strikes).
Trade Idea:
With Spot-Forward Basis yields still in the single digits, you can still generate decent >20% yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 22%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 50k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Maturity: 12JUL24 (8 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
Coupon Rate: 22% p.a.
- Spot has recovered most of Friday's losses, with the 5% drop in BTC to 60k on Friday triggered by hawkish Fed comments.
- We think price action could chop around here as the market digests fundamentals from the several macro events lined up this week:
Tue: US PPI, Powell to speak
Wed: CPI, Retail Sales
Thu: Unemployment Claims
- Given the strong bounce from last week's lows, 60k still seems like a strong support level barring any hawkish surprises (BTC risk reversals are at neutral levels).
- Overall, the desk still remains structurally bullish BTC even as spot continues to consolidate here while the market gets more clarity from the Fed.
- Options flows today saw buyers of BTC Jun topside (65k) and BTC Dec topside (90k-100k strikes).
Trade Idea:
With Spot-Forward Basis yields still in the single digits, you can still generate decent >20% yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 22%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 50k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Maturity: 12JUL24 (8 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 50,000
Coupon Rate: 22% p.a.
QCP Asia and Europe Colour - 14 May 24
- Spot came off for BTC and is now hovering at 61.8k, right in the middle of the range from yesterday's highs (63.5k) and last Friday's lows (60.1k).
- We expect Powell's speech tonight to be carefully worded as always, resulting in a muted market reaction.
- On the other hand, CPI numbers tomorrow may be the catalyst to finally help the market pick a direction.
- While the general market continues to drift off into the summer, GME has emerged after a long slumber, pumping 80+% yesterday off the back of Roaring Kitty's tweet. 🙀
-Could this be the start of a memecoin frenzy?
Trade Idea:
Utilize our ZCC to receive upfront yields on your dollars for punting memecoins.
BTC ZCC (USD deployment)
Receive upfront payment of 25% p.a. upon deployment
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 47k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 47k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 57k level.
Maturity: 9AUG24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 57,000
Protection Level: 47,000
Upfront Payment: 25% p.a.
- Spot came off for BTC and is now hovering at 61.8k, right in the middle of the range from yesterday's highs (63.5k) and last Friday's lows (60.1k).
- We expect Powell's speech tonight to be carefully worded as always, resulting in a muted market reaction.
- On the other hand, CPI numbers tomorrow may be the catalyst to finally help the market pick a direction.
- While the general market continues to drift off into the summer, GME has emerged after a long slumber, pumping 80+% yesterday off the back of Roaring Kitty's tweet. 🙀
-Could this be the start of a memecoin frenzy?
Trade Idea:
Utilize our ZCC to receive upfront yields on your dollars for punting memecoins.
BTC ZCC (USD deployment)
Receive upfront payment of 25% p.a. upon deployment
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 47k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 47k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 57k level.
Maturity: 9AUG24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 57,000
Protection Level: 47,000
Upfront Payment: 25% p.a.
QCP Asia and Europe Colour - 15 May 24
- Two significant headlines broke overnight:
1. The State of Wisconsin has bought $100m worth of Blackrock's BTC spot ETF. We are watching to see if other state institutions or pension funds will follow suit.
2. Vanguard, the second largest US asset manager, who have so far avoided issuing a BTC ETF, has appointed a crypto friendly CEO, Salim Ramji. Joining from BlackRock, Ramji was part of the IBIT effort. Does this mean that Vanguard will also issue a BTC spot ETF soon? If so, would this open up a new pool of demand?
- BTC price remains stuck in a 60-63.5k range in spite of high PPI numbers and a somewhat dovish Powell speech where he ruled out a rate hike.
- Perhaps US CPI numbers tonight will see BTC break out of the range.
Trade Idea:
The market is expecting a lower CPI reading which will be bullish for risk assets. We also think that any dips will continue to be bought up because:
a. the market continues to be fixated on rate cuts
b. liquidity inflow from global rate cuts and continued high fiscal spending
c. increasing sovereign acceptance of bitcoin
Keep buying BTC at discount with Accumulators
(spot ref: 62.5k)
1. 12 weeks (2-Aug expiry)
Buy BTC at 56.5k every week as long as BTC spot price is under 70k.
2. 20 weeks (27-Sep expiry)
Buy BTC at 56k every week as long as BTC spot price is under 80k.
- Two significant headlines broke overnight:
1. The State of Wisconsin has bought $100m worth of Blackrock's BTC spot ETF. We are watching to see if other state institutions or pension funds will follow suit.
2. Vanguard, the second largest US asset manager, who have so far avoided issuing a BTC ETF, has appointed a crypto friendly CEO, Salim Ramji. Joining from BlackRock, Ramji was part of the IBIT effort. Does this mean that Vanguard will also issue a BTC spot ETF soon? If so, would this open up a new pool of demand?
- BTC price remains stuck in a 60-63.5k range in spite of high PPI numbers and a somewhat dovish Powell speech where he ruled out a rate hike.
- Perhaps US CPI numbers tonight will see BTC break out of the range.
Trade Idea:
The market is expecting a lower CPI reading which will be bullish for risk assets. We also think that any dips will continue to be bought up because:
a. the market continues to be fixated on rate cuts
b. liquidity inflow from global rate cuts and continued high fiscal spending
c. increasing sovereign acceptance of bitcoin
Keep buying BTC at discount with Accumulators
(spot ref: 62.5k)
1. 12 weeks (2-Aug expiry)
Buy BTC at 56.5k every week as long as BTC spot price is under 70k.
2. 20 weeks (27-Sep expiry)
Buy BTC at 56k every week as long as BTC spot price is under 80k.
QCP Asia Colour - 16 May 24
- US CPI numbers triggered a break out of the range across risk assets. BTC has since traded back above 66k.
- We expect bullish momentum here that could take us back to the highs of 74k.
- The desk saw sizeable buyers of 100-120k BTC Calls for Dec 2024 on this move higher in spot.
- Institutional demand for the BTC continues to grow with large asset managers Millennium and Schonfeld investing approximately 3% and 2% of their AUM into the BTC spot ETF.
- The stars seems to be aligning on this breakout with significant sovereign and institutional adoption, abating inflation and upcoming US elections. Is this the resumption of the bull market?
Trade ideas:
If this is indeed the start of the bull trend again, then this move could take us past all-time highs. Bullish ERKO Seagulls will allow you to capture upside on such a move at zero cost.
(BTC Spot Ref: 66,000)
1. June Seagull
Expiry: 27-Jun
Strikes: Sell 60k Put + Buy 70k Call (88k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $18,000 per BTC or 249% pa if BTC spot price is just under 88k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 60k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 60k price.
2. August Seagull
Expiry: 30-Aug
Strikes: Sell 58k Put + Buy 70k Call (100k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $30,000 per BTC or 176% pa if BTC spot price is just under 100k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 58k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 58k price.
- US CPI numbers triggered a break out of the range across risk assets. BTC has since traded back above 66k.
- We expect bullish momentum here that could take us back to the highs of 74k.
- The desk saw sizeable buyers of 100-120k BTC Calls for Dec 2024 on this move higher in spot.
- Institutional demand for the BTC continues to grow with large asset managers Millennium and Schonfeld investing approximately 3% and 2% of their AUM into the BTC spot ETF.
- The stars seems to be aligning on this breakout with significant sovereign and institutional adoption, abating inflation and upcoming US elections. Is this the resumption of the bull market?
Trade ideas:
If this is indeed the start of the bull trend again, then this move could take us past all-time highs. Bullish ERKO Seagulls will allow you to capture upside on such a move at zero cost.
(BTC Spot Ref: 66,000)
1. June Seagull
Expiry: 27-Jun
Strikes: Sell 60k Put + Buy 70k Call (88k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $18,000 per BTC or 249% pa if BTC spot price is just under 88k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 60k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 60k price.
2. August Seagull
Expiry: 30-Aug
Strikes: Sell 58k Put + Buy 70k Call (100k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $30,000 per BTC or 176% pa if BTC spot price is just under 100k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 58k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 58k price.