QCP Market Colour, 04 March 2026
Hormuz Shock Tests the AI Trade, Bitcoin Holds Firm

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, tightening energy supply and pushing prices higher. Brent is at $83/bbl and Dutch Natural Gas (TTF) is up 50% at $55, with refineries reportedly coming under fire and maritime insurance retreating even as Washington floats backstops and naval escorts.

The knock-on effects are hitting the AI and tech trade. Korea, heavily reliant on imported energy and home to key semiconductor champions, is feeling the squeeze, with the KOSPI down 20% from its highs.

We expect continued volatility, but if the disruption persists, pressure to reopen Hormuz is likely to build. Bitcoin has held up better than broader risk, and bears watching as an early signal of stabilising sentiment.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-4/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 2–6 March 2026

Geopolitics drove headlines, but oil drove markets.

What began as a standard risk-off move quickly evolved into an inflation-overlay regime, where rising energy risk kept yields sticky and traditional havens less reliable. Treasuries failed to hedge as usual, the USD stayed supported, and volatility rotated through Asia.

Crypto initially held firm, then broke higher into Thursday on strong ETF inflows and a sharp rise in open interest, before giving back gains as macro volatility returned. The key question now: does oil keep rates heavy, or does energy de-escalate and reopen the path for sustained beta?

Read our full weekly breakdown, including:
• Cross-asset regime analysis
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Key watch variables for next week
• Regulatory and market structure developments

Subscribe to our newsletter for the complete note.

QCP Market Colour, 09 March 2026
Missiles Over Markets

Tensions in Iran failed to de-escalate over the weekend, pushing oil above $115 on fears of sustained supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability. Global equities have turned defensive.

Traditional havens have not behaved as expected. US Treasuries and gold have come under pressure as higher crude stokes inflation fears and lifts yields, leaving the US dollar as the preferred defensive trade, supported by elevated rates and the US’s net energy exporter status.

Against that backdrop, BTC has been notably resilient even as the VIX sits above 29. Options positioning also looks less panicked than last week’s initial shock, with put skew less extreme and flows pointing to volatility expectations rather than a one-way flush lower. March open interest remains concentrated at the 75k and 125k call strikes, signalling pockets of optimism despite macro uncertainty.

Key Events to Watch
Wed (11 Mar): US CPI
Thu (12 Mar): US Unemployment Claims
Fri (13 Mar): Core PCE, JOLTS Job Openings

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-5/

QCP Market Colour, 11 March 2026
BTC Holds Firm as Markets Price a Stagflationary Shock

BTC has shown notable resilience following the latest geopolitical shock, rebounding toward $70k after briefly dipping below $63k during the initial risk unwind. While the recovery is encouraging, price action still looks more like stabilisation than a full return to risk-on positioning.

Options markets reflect that caution. Volatility has eased into the mid-50s, but risk reversals remain firmly negative, with short-dated downside protection still in demand. In other words, spot is holding up, but conviction on the upside remains tentative.

The broader macro backdrop explains why. Since tensions escalated in the Middle East, equities have softened while Treasury yields have climbed and Fed rate cuts have been pushed further out. The result is a stagflationary mix of firmer inflation and weaker growth, rather than a traditional flight-to-safety environment.

Oil remains the key driver. Brent briefly approached $120 before reversing after discussions of a large coordinated strategic reserve release by the IEA and G7. Even so, sharp swings in crude underscore how fragile liquidity and positioning remain across macro markets.

With US CPI due later today, markets remain highly sensitive to any shift in the inflation narrative.

Read the full market colour here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-5/

QCP Market Colour, 16 March 2026
Crypto Strikes Back

The war is not letting up, and neither is crypto. BTC and ETH have pushed above $74k and $2,270 respectively, even as equities and gold remain under pressure, a late-quarter divergence that markets are now being forced to price.

The move is reviving the “digital safe haven” and “geopolitical hedge” narrative, with rising Iran-related tensions appearing to drive greater on-chain activity and demand for cross-border liquidity. USDC supply hit a record $81.1B last week, lifting overall stablecoin supply and signalling fresh liquidity entering crypto amid global uncertainty.

Institutional bid looks to be returning as well. Bitcoin ETFs have logged five consecutive days of inflows, with BlackRock’s ETF posting its third straight week of inflows, totaling $1.75 billion, while Strategy continues to add to its BTC holdings as momentum around STRC builds.

In options, spot is nearing a large month-end open interest strike, around 8,000 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-75K-C. A clean break above $75k could trigger a gamma-driven chase, though $74.5k remains the immediate hurdle with short liquidations clustered just overhead.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-6/

QCP Market Colour, 18 March 2026
BTC Range Holds as Central Banks Take Centre Stage

BTC is hovering around $74k this morning, still holding the post-shock range but struggling to push through the recent highs. The broader crypto complex remains soft, though relative to the drawdown in other macro-sensitive risk assets, the damage has been fairly contained. On-chain flows still suggest dip-buying toward the lower end of the range, but spot volumes are light and near-term direction remains macro-led.

In options, conditions are firm but defensive. 30-day implied vol is holding near the 50 handle, still above realised, keeping carry positive and the setup supportive for premium sellers. Term structure remains mildly in contango, while 30-day risk reversals continue to price puts richer than calls. Skew is not extreme, but a residual geopolitical premium remains embedded further out the curve.

Macro is the dominant driver into a dense central bank week, with the Fed on Wednesday followed by the ECB, BoJ and BoE on Thursday. Markets have pared easing expectations as higher oil complicates the case for cuts, even as growth and labour data soften, leaving the rates backdrop less supportive for crypto.

With oil hovering near $100 and geopolitics keeping a stagflationary tone across assets, BTC is no longer trading as pure high-beta risk, but it is not yet seeing consistent safe-haven inflows either. For now, the range likely holds until policy or geopolitics offers clearer direction.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-7/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 16–20 March 2026
A hawkish Fed and rising oil reset the macro.

Early-week strength in crypto, driven by ETF inflows and positioning, pushed BTC toward $75k. But a hawkish FOMC and renewed energy shock tightened financial conditions, triggering a cross-asset pullback before stabilisation into Friday.

The takeaway: flows can support rallies, but rates and oil still set the ceiling.

Subscribe to our newsletter for the full breakdown, including:
• Cross-asset regime analysis
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Key watch variables for next week
• Regulatory and market structure developments

QCP Market Colour, 24 March 2026
Crypto Dragged Down As The War Drags On?

Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait over the weekend did not unfold as planned. Risk assets initially weakened as markets priced elevated geopolitical risk, including the threat of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. After the deadline passed, Trump postponed planned action, citing “productive conversations”, helping steady crypto and broader risk even as Tehran denied that any talks occurred. With facts still murky, markets took some reprieve from the reported five-day pause window.

Crypto, however, has continued to show surprising resilience. BTC briefly dipped below $70k over the weekend, but held up better than prior risk-off episodes, when thin liquidity would often have amplified downside. This may reflect lower leverage across the system, but it may also hint at the early stages of a regime shift, where BTC no longer trades as a pure high-beta proxy for equities.

The macro backdrop is making that framing easier to test. U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, with additional fiscal outlays now being discussed, while signs of stagflation are emerging and central banks face the familiar policy trap. In that environment, BTC can begin to look less like a speculative asset and more like a neutral escape valve.

Geopolitics is reinforcing the point. Iran has floated a “yuan-for-passage” proposal, effectively tying Hormuz access to settlement in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. We are not there yet, with the dollar still firm and bond markets still functioning, but the longer this drags on, the more room there is for BTC’s neutral, permissionless settlement narrative to re-enter the conversation.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-8/

Eid Mubarak from all of us at QCP.

Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful and peaceful Eid Al-Adha, filled with reflection, gratitude, and meaningful moments with family and friends.

QCP Market Colour, 26 March 2026
Quiet Range, Loud Backdrop

BTC is hovering around $70k, and the tape still reads as quiet consolidation rather than stress. Macro remains fragile on renewed Middle East headlines, with oil retaining a geopolitical premium even after easing off the highs. Against that backdrop, BTC’s resilience stands out: recent net outflows suggest coins are being pulled off venues rather than positioned for sale, while BTC dominance continues to edge higher, reinforcing a more defensive tilt within crypto.

The bigger macro question is that markets have repriced the inflation shock faster than the growth shock. Risk assets have absorbed higher oil and a rates reset, but the extent of any growth damage remains unclear if geopolitical stress persists. That leaves BTC in an in-between regime, no longer a pure high-beta proxy for equities, but not yet a consistent safe haven either, keeping price action range-bound and headline-driven.

Options are telling a similar story. Implied vols are easing on the day and week, carry remains positive, and the curve stays in mild contango. Downside hedges are still in demand, even if not at extremes, suggesting caution is being priced, not panic.

For now, BTC looks accumulated on dips but not chased. Until geopolitics stabilises or macro repricing moves further, this remains a headline-driven range market rather than the start of a clean trend.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-9/

QCP Market Colour, 30 March 2026
BTC Holds Range as U.S. Holds Fire

BTC briefly dipped to $65k in thin Asia hours before rebounding into the $66k to $67k range, continuing a familiar pattern of weekend weakness followed by early-week stabilisation. Despite last Friday’s post-expiry sell-off and unresolved tensions in Iran, BTC has held the broader $65k to $70k range, even as it tracks toward a sixth consecutive red monthly close, reflecting still-fragile sentiment.

That said, BTC’s relative performance has been notable. It has outpaced gold and equities since the Iran conflict began, suggesting some resilience even as macro remains strained. With Trump’s 10-day pause on strikes approaching its April 6 deadline, markets are bracing for potential escalation, keeping BTC range-bound and headline-driven.

Macro and geopolitics remain tightly linked. Elevated oil prices and ongoing supply chain risks, particularly around key chokepoints, continue to reinforce a stagflationary backdrop. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war risk premiums are unlikely to ease quickly, leaving inflation pressures sticky.

In options, post-expiry vol compression has been muted, with traders still paying for gamma and overwriters largely sidelined. The surface reflects caution, not panic, consistent with a market that is stable, but not yet ready to break higher.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-10/

Quantum Risk Is Real, But Not Crypto-Specific, 1 Apr 2026

Google researchers have suggested that quantum computing could challenge today’s cryptographic security standards with fewer resources than previously assumed. But the implications extend far beyond crypto. That same security standard underpins banking systems, encrypted communications, and global financial infrastructure, meaning any breakthrough would be systemic, not isolated.

At the same time, the gap between theory and reality remains wide. Current quantum systems are still orders of magnitude below what would be required to materially threaten encryption, leaving a meaningful window for both crypto and traditional finance to adapt.

This is less an immediate risk and more a structural shift already being priced into long-term security roadmaps. But if the foundations of digital trust are eventually tested, where does the real vulnerability lie, crypto, or the system it mirrors?

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/quantum-risk-is-real-but-not-crypto-specific/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 30 March–3 April 2026
Macro kept crypto in check, but resilience stood out.

BTC held near $67k despite rising geopolitical tension and oil volatility, while ETH stayed firm and alts lagged. Positioning cleaned up, selling pressure eased, and short-dated hedging remained active, pointing to a less stretched market.

The takeaway: support is there, but it is narrow. BTC is bid, not broadly chased.

Subscribe to our newsletter for the full breakdown, including:
• OTC desk positioning insights
• Flow and volatility trends
• Key macro catalysts to watch
• Outlook for BTC, ETH, and broader risk assets

QCP Market Colour, 6 April 2026
Act Tough or Same Bluff?

Trump has again deferred his decision on Iran, extending the deadline for potential strikes to Tuesday, marking the fourth postponement. As in prior weeks, escalation rhetoric has been followed by signals of negotiation, a pattern markets are increasingly fading. Crude is softer and equity futures remain stable, suggesting reduced urgency around immediate escalation risk.

Crypto, meanwhile, has remained resilient. BTC and ETH pushed above $69k and $2,140 into the Asia open, triggering roughly $200m in short liquidations in thin conditions. Despite geopolitical noise, price action continues to look more stabilisation than stress.

In options, implied vols have drifted lower post quarter-end expiry, now sitting near pre-selloff levels. Skew is also normalising, indicating that hedging demand has eased despite persistent macro uncertainty.

Institutional flows remain supportive. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32bn in net inflows in March, while Strategy has resumed accumulation after a brief pause. On the Ethereum side, Bitmine continues to add to positions.

For now, markets are leaning risk-on, though the durability of this move will be tested as US markets reopen. Positioning suggests investors are not bracing for an imminent escalation scenario.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-6-april-2026/

We’re thrilled to welcome Koichi Kano to QCP as our Head of Japan, a key milestone in our continued expansion into the Japanese market.

With over 25 years of experience in global financial markets, Koichi has held senior roles across FX and Fixed Income, including at Citigroup. Since transitioning into digital assets, he has contributed to major international initiatives such as Project Guardian (MAS) and Project Agora (BIS/IIF), bringing deep institutional expertise and regulatory insight.

As Japan’s digital asset ecosystem continues to mature and institutional participation accelerates, we see a strong opportunity to be at the forefront of this next phase. Based in Tokyo, Koichi will lead our efforts on the ground, strengthening partnerships and delivering institutional-grade solutions across derivatives, spot trading, and structured products.

Read the full press release to learn more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-group-appoints-veteran-markets-leader-as-head-of-japan/

QCP Market Colour, 8 April 2026
A Pause Being Mistaken for Peace

BTC moved back above $71k after a conditional two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Risk assets reacted as expected, equities rallied and oil pulled back into the low-$90s as immediate supply risks were repriced. However, this still looks like a pause rather than a resolution, with the ceasefire dependent on how passage through Hormuz holds.

That caution is warranted. Recent strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure highlight that disruption risks persist, even if shipping resumes.

Macro remains mixed. US payrolls rebounded, but underlying labour indicators are softening, leaving the Fed balancing weaker growth against renewed energy-driven inflation. This week’s CPI is the next key test.

In options, the move looks more like a headline squeeze than a full risk reset. Front-end vols have compressed, but skew remains bid for downside, suggesting hedging demand is still intact. Positioning shows call interest around $75k to $85k, with support lower at $60k to $65k, leaving $74k as the key level to break.

For now, markets are pricing de-escalation, but not conviction. The relief rally is real, but fragile, with geopolitics and macro likely to determine whether it can sustain.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-11/

QCP Weekly Wrap, 7–11 April 2026
Ceasefire, but not clearance.

Markets moved from pricing a stagflation shock to a sharp relief rally, as a US–Iran ceasefire pushed oil lower and supported risk assets. BTC climbed from $67.5k to $72.2k alongside the rebound, while ETF inflows strengthened midweek before fading.

The takeaway: the path shifted, but the regime did not.

Subscribe to our newsletter for the full breakdown, including:
• Oil, rates, and FX transmission dynamics
• Cross-asset positioning and flows
• Institutional crypto demand and options positioning
• Key macro catalysts shaping next week’s outlook

QCP Market Colour, 13 April 2026
Fade the Blockade?

Markets were hoping for a deal, but positioned for disappointment. US–Iran talks broke down over the weekend, pushing oil back above $100 and triggering a risk-off move. BTC ran into resistance at $74k, while ETH slipped from $2,330 to $2,180 as near-term expectations reset.

Trump has escalated with blockade threats on Hormuz, while Iran signalled potential disruption via Bab el-Mandeb. The risk is clear, but enforcement is not. Any attempt to intercept major shipping flows, particularly involving China, would risk a broader escalation that markets are not priced for.

That scepticism is showing up in crypto. Implied vols and skew have normalised toward pre-conflict levels, and both BTC and ETH continue to absorb geopolitical noise, pointing to a steady underlying bid. ETF flows remain supportive, with IBIT seeing $612.1m in inflows over the past week.

With enforcement flagged from 10:00 ET, the focus now shifts from rhetoric to execution. After multiple delays, credibility is becoming part of the trade.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-12/

QCP Market Colour, 15 April 2026
BTC Rallies on Relief, But Markets Are Not Buying Resolution

BTC joined the overnight relief rally, pushing back toward the mid-$74,000 area as markets reacted to reports of a preliminary US-Iran framework. Equities bounced, oil fell, and crypto caught a bid. But the bigger signal was what did not confirm the move: long-end yields barely moved, gold held firm, and rates did not price a more meaningful inflation relief trade. That suggests this is headline relief, not full resolution.

The reason is enrichment. Iran is at 60% enriched uranium, while the US wants below 20%. That gap is not closed by a framework headline, and Tehran has not signalled a willingness to make that concession. Markets may be trading the ceasefire angle, but the core risk remains unresolved.

In crypto, BTC spot is grinding higher despite negative funding and softer open interest, suggesting shorts are still leaning against the move. But options remain cautious. Front-end vol is still muted, 1-month vol remains below 3-month, and 30-day 25-delta risk reversals still show better demand for downside protection than upside exposure. This still looks like a spot-led relief rally, not a broader re-risking.

The broader macro regime has not changed. The Fed remains boxed in, liquidity is still tight, and this is a geopolitical bounce rather than a regime shift. Last week was about fading the blockade. This week is about whether to fade the relief.

Read more: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-market-colour-13/

Digital Assets in Q2: What's Your Strategy?

Markets are mixed this quarter, with BTC range-bound between $60K–$75K as macro pressure and shifting flows keep direction unclear.

While near-term drivers remain uncertain, ETF inflows, improving U.S. regulation, and new capital channels continue to support the longer-term outlook.

In our latest report, Digital Assets Market Outlook Q2 2026: Navigating Volatility with Conviction, we cover:
• Macro forces shaping crypto
• ETF flows & institutional positioning
• Key regulatory developments
• Q2 scenarios & positioning strategies

Sign up for early access