QCP New York Colour - 11 & 12 Apr 24
- We had the smallest GBTC outflow to date yesterday at just -$17.5m and a decent total BTC spot ETF inflow of +$123.7m.
- The market took this positively, taking BTC up to 71.3k in Asia time.
- However, there has been no follow through and BTC spot price remains stuck around the 70k level.
- In the absence of bullish momentum, the desk is starting to see some profit-taking on long BTC call positions and a shift towards delta-neutral deployments like selling the Spot-Forward Basis (which has pushed the forward curve lower again).
- ETH risk reversals are once again skewed to the downside at -5% in the front-end.
- This has been an early signal for the previous few price dips. Will it prove to be an accurate leading indicator again?
Trade Ideas:
While we remain structurally bullish, deleveraging dips can go very deep especially given the extent of the bull run this year. So if you are looking to hedge short-term downside the following are indicative examples of two possible strategies:
(spot ref: 70.2k)
1. Downside Sharkfin
Deployed with USD and with zero downside, Maximum profit of +80% p.a. if BTC price is just above 58k at 31-May expiry. If BTC price is below 58k or above 65k, 100% of the principal amount is returned. (Pro-rated return in between)
2. Decumulator
Sell BTC at 76k (+8.3% premium to spot price) weekly as long as BTC spot is above 66k.
Please approach the desk directly for details. Strategies available for both BTC and ETH.
- We had the smallest GBTC outflow to date yesterday at just -$17.5m and a decent total BTC spot ETF inflow of +$123.7m.
- The market took this positively, taking BTC up to 71.3k in Asia time.
- However, there has been no follow through and BTC spot price remains stuck around the 70k level.
- In the absence of bullish momentum, the desk is starting to see some profit-taking on long BTC call positions and a shift towards delta-neutral deployments like selling the Spot-Forward Basis (which has pushed the forward curve lower again).
- ETH risk reversals are once again skewed to the downside at -5% in the front-end.
- This has been an early signal for the previous few price dips. Will it prove to be an accurate leading indicator again?
Trade Ideas:
While we remain structurally bullish, deleveraging dips can go very deep especially given the extent of the bull run this year. So if you are looking to hedge short-term downside the following are indicative examples of two possible strategies:
(spot ref: 70.2k)
1. Downside Sharkfin
Deployed with USD and with zero downside, Maximum profit of +80% p.a. if BTC price is just above 58k at 31-May expiry. If BTC price is below 58k or above 65k, 100% of the principal amount is returned. (Pro-rated return in between)
2. Decumulator
Sell BTC at 76k (+8.3% premium to spot price) weekly as long as BTC spot is above 66k.
Please approach the desk directly for details. Strategies available for both BTC and ETH.
QCP Weekend Brief - 13 Apr 24
- The downside skew in the ETH risk reversal that we highlighted on Friday has proven to be an accurate early downside indicator.
- Likely because of its sensitivity to crypto market anxiety as speculators who are long Alts tend to hedge using ETH puts.
- Overnight, the macro trigger was the threat of Iranian retaliation to Israel which caused a sell-off across all risk assets.
- BTC traded to 65.1k lows, ETH to 3100 and Alts sold off around 20-30%.
- The market was caught off guard by this move with perp funding driven to negative to (over -40%), the deepest it's been this year.
- The negative perp funding has also crushed the forward curve with the front-end now below 10%.
- With this move, BTC is right back in the middle of a tightening range between 64k and 73k.
Trade Idea:
Even though we are about a week out from BTC halving, BTC might struggle to break out of this defined range in the short-term. We recommend the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible).
Indicative pricing below (spot ref: 68k):
1. If you are long BTC, do a call-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 60% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 64,000
Strike: 73,000
Protection Level: 80,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is above 64k. you will get a yield of 60%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is above 80k, BTC will be converted to USD at 73k strike. If spot price is below 80k, 100% of the BTC principal is returned.
2. If you are deploying USD, do a put-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 66% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 73,000
Strike: 64,000
Protection Level: 60,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is below 73k. you will get a yield of 66%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is below 60k, USD will be converted to BTC at 64k strike. If spot price is above 60k, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
- The downside skew in the ETH risk reversal that we highlighted on Friday has proven to be an accurate early downside indicator.
- Likely because of its sensitivity to crypto market anxiety as speculators who are long Alts tend to hedge using ETH puts.
- Overnight, the macro trigger was the threat of Iranian retaliation to Israel which caused a sell-off across all risk assets.
- BTC traded to 65.1k lows, ETH to 3100 and Alts sold off around 20-30%.
- The market was caught off guard by this move with perp funding driven to negative to (over -40%), the deepest it's been this year.
- The negative perp funding has also crushed the forward curve with the front-end now below 10%.
- With this move, BTC is right back in the middle of a tightening range between 64k and 73k.
Trade Idea:
Even though we are about a week out from BTC halving, BTC might struggle to break out of this defined range in the short-term. We recommend the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible).
Indicative pricing below (spot ref: 68k):
1. If you are long BTC, do a call-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 60% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 64,000
Strike: 73,000
Protection Level: 80,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is above 64k. you will get a yield of 60%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is above 80k, BTC will be converted to USD at 73k strike. If spot price is below 80k, 100% of the BTC principal is returned.
2. If you are deploying USD, do a put-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 66% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 73,000
Strike: 64,000
Protection Level: 60,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is below 73k. you will get a yield of 66%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is below 60k, USD will be converted to BTC at 64k strike. If spot price is above 60k, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
QCP Extraordinary Market Update - 14 Apr 24
- The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market. BTC traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
- It is likely that BTC was used as a weekend proxy macro hedge and therefore bore the full brunt of the immediate risk-off reaction.
- BTC has since traded back above 64k and ETH above 3000.
- ETH risk reversals dropped all the way down to -18% but is now back up to slightly positive in the front-end! (Chart below)
- This has been our best leading indicator for the downside moves. Will it also be an accurate signal for bullish recovery? If so, there could be opportunities to buy the dip.
- It is worth noting that historically, buying the dip on the outbreak of major geopolitical conflicts has been a profitable trade.
Trade Ideas:
If you would like to buy the dip defensively with some safety buffers, the following are two possible strategies.
Indicative (spot ref: 64,500)
1. BTC Accumulator
Every Friday, buy BTC at 54k level as long as BTC spot remains under 77,400 at the time of observation.
Maturity: 23AUG24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 54,180 (-16%)
Upper Barrier: 77,400 (+20%)
2. BTC Bullish CFCC
Every Friday, you will get a yield of 92.5%pa as long as spot price is above 64.5k.
At expiry, if spot price is below 55k, USD will be converted to BTC at 60k strike.
If spot price is above 55k at expiry, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
Coupon Rate: 92.5% p.a.
Maturity: 27SEP24 (23 weeks)
Coupon Trigger: 64,500
Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 55,000
- The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market. BTC traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
- It is likely that BTC was used as a weekend proxy macro hedge and therefore bore the full brunt of the immediate risk-off reaction.
- BTC has since traded back above 64k and ETH above 3000.
- ETH risk reversals dropped all the way down to -18% but is now back up to slightly positive in the front-end! (Chart below)
- This has been our best leading indicator for the downside moves. Will it also be an accurate signal for bullish recovery? If so, there could be opportunities to buy the dip.
- It is worth noting that historically, buying the dip on the outbreak of major geopolitical conflicts has been a profitable trade.
Trade Ideas:
If you would like to buy the dip defensively with some safety buffers, the following are two possible strategies.
Indicative (spot ref: 64,500)
1. BTC Accumulator
Every Friday, buy BTC at 54k level as long as BTC spot remains under 77,400 at the time of observation.
Maturity: 23AUG24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 54,180 (-16%)
Upper Barrier: 77,400 (+20%)
2. BTC Bullish CFCC
Every Friday, you will get a yield of 92.5%pa as long as spot price is above 64.5k.
At expiry, if spot price is below 55k, USD will be converted to BTC at 60k strike.
If spot price is above 55k at expiry, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
Coupon Rate: 92.5% p.a.
Maturity: 27SEP24 (23 weeks)
Coupon Trigger: 64,500
Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 55,000
QCP New York Colour 15 & 16 Apr 24
- Buying the weekend dip looked great in Asia morning with BTC climbing back to almost 67k on the back of Hong Kong approving BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Throughout the day vols eased off significantly and the forward curve climbed back up into double digit yields as the market priced out the de-escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
- However, the US session saw another risk-off wave across the board. BTC has been dragged below 63k again.
- There are two things worth noting:
1. ETH risk reversals have turned very negative in the front-end (-12%) indicating nervous sentiment
2. The market is short ETH gamma (near-dated options) which means that a sharp move in either direction would be amplified
Trade Ideas:
Given the nervousness and uncertainty, we would suggest zero-downside strategies with high convexity on ETH like Sharkfins.
Indicative examples for Bullish and Bearish ETH Sharkfin (spot ref: 3100)
1. Bullish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($3500 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 3500 and 3900, max profit is $400 per ETH or 57%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is below 3500 or above 3900, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 3500
Knockout: 3900
Max Payout: 57% p.a.
2. Bearish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($2800 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 2800 and 2500, max profit is $300 per ETH or 54%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is above 2800 or below 2500, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 2800
Knockout: 2500
Max Payout: 54% p.a.
- Buying the weekend dip looked great in Asia morning with BTC climbing back to almost 67k on the back of Hong Kong approving BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Throughout the day vols eased off significantly and the forward curve climbed back up into double digit yields as the market priced out the de-escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
- However, the US session saw another risk-off wave across the board. BTC has been dragged below 63k again.
- There are two things worth noting:
1. ETH risk reversals have turned very negative in the front-end (-12%) indicating nervous sentiment
2. The market is short ETH gamma (near-dated options) which means that a sharp move in either direction would be amplified
Trade Ideas:
Given the nervousness and uncertainty, we would suggest zero-downside strategies with high convexity on ETH like Sharkfins.
Indicative examples for Bullish and Bearish ETH Sharkfin (spot ref: 3100)
1. Bullish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($3500 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 3500 and 3900, max profit is $400 per ETH or 57%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is below 3500 or above 3900, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 3500
Knockout: 3900
Max Payout: 57% p.a.
2. Bearish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($2800 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 2800 and 2500, max profit is $300 per ETH or 54%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is above 2800 or below 2500, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 2800
Knockout: 2500
Max Payout: 54% p.a.
QCP Asia & Europe Update - 16 Apr 24
- Crypto markets are getting increasingly nervous with the downside skew in ETH risk reversals sinking even deeper (-20% now).
- We expect this nervousness to persist as the Iran-Israeli conflict develops. The risk-off sentiment has been exacerbated by weakness in US equities too.
- However, we continue to see consistent sizable demand for BTC and ETH calls for longer-term expiries (out to Mar 2025).
- Perp funding for BTC is flattish with the back end of the curve holding steady at double digit yields. Altcoin perp funding is generally negative as well which shows that a lot of the long leverage has been wiped out.
- Is this the time to start picking bottoms?
Trade Idea:
Given the prevailing nervousness, we suggest picking bottoms very defensively by buying BTC or ETH at a significant discount to spot price. For example a 12-week Accumulator to buy BTC at 55k (12% discount!):
BTC Accumulator (Weekly)
(spot ref: 62,500)
Every Friday, you will buy BTC at 55k as long as spot price is below 72.5k level.
Expiry: 5JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55k
Upper Barrier: 72.5k
*Clients may check with the desk for further details or to discuss a strategy
- Crypto markets are getting increasingly nervous with the downside skew in ETH risk reversals sinking even deeper (-20% now).
- We expect this nervousness to persist as the Iran-Israeli conflict develops. The risk-off sentiment has been exacerbated by weakness in US equities too.
- However, we continue to see consistent sizable demand for BTC and ETH calls for longer-term expiries (out to Mar 2025).
- Perp funding for BTC is flattish with the back end of the curve holding steady at double digit yields. Altcoin perp funding is generally negative as well which shows that a lot of the long leverage has been wiped out.
- Is this the time to start picking bottoms?
Trade Idea:
Given the prevailing nervousness, we suggest picking bottoms very defensively by buying BTC or ETH at a significant discount to spot price. For example a 12-week Accumulator to buy BTC at 55k (12% discount!):
BTC Accumulator (Weekly)
(spot ref: 62,500)
Every Friday, you will buy BTC at 55k as long as spot price is below 72.5k level.
Expiry: 5JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55k
Upper Barrier: 72.5k
*Clients may check with the desk for further details or to discuss a strategy
QCP Asia & Europe Colour - 17 Apr 24
- Some calm is slowly returning to the market with BTC and ETH stabilising around 63k and 3050 levels respectively.
- The options desk saw mostly sellers of front-end vols pushing vols down to 70% from highs of over 100%!
- Funding has also normalised with perp rates flattish and the forward curve settling around 10%.
- We were surprised by how calm the markets were given Powell’s hawkish comments which caused the market to price out more Fed cuts this year.
- Perhaps we’ll see some consolidation from an exhausted market in the short-term.
Trade Idea:
If you are upset about missing the Spot-Forward Basis trade for 20-30% yield, you can still get similar yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 26%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 45k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 45k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Expiry: 12JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Coupon Rate: 26% p.a.
- Some calm is slowly returning to the market with BTC and ETH stabilising around 63k and 3050 levels respectively.
- The options desk saw mostly sellers of front-end vols pushing vols down to 70% from highs of over 100%!
- Funding has also normalised with perp rates flattish and the forward curve settling around 10%.
- We were surprised by how calm the markets were given Powell’s hawkish comments which caused the market to price out more Fed cuts this year.
- Perhaps we’ll see some consolidation from an exhausted market in the short-term.
Trade Idea:
If you are upset about missing the Spot-Forward Basis trade for 20-30% yield, you can still get similar yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 26%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 45k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 45k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Expiry: 12JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Coupon Rate: 26% p.a.
QCP New York Colour - 18 Apr 24
- BTC broke below 60k overnight and ETH traded to 2915 lows on the back of weakness in US equities mainly.
- BTC has since bounced back to 64k and ETH close to 3100.
- Vols and funding/forwards have been largely unchanged.
- The most surprising thing about the markets in the last 24 hours is probably how uninteresting it has been.
- The BTC halving will occur this Saturday in Asia morning and the way the market is reacting, it seems to have been almost forgotten.
Trade Ideas:
BTC halving moonshot?
BTC 26-Apr 70k Call Digi
Payout: 5x
If BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 26 April, you will receive 5 times whatever premium was paid.
BTC 26-Apr 75k Call Digi
Payout: 10x
If BTC expires at-or-above 75k on 26 April, you will receive 10 times whatever premium was paid.
- BTC broke below 60k overnight and ETH traded to 2915 lows on the back of weakness in US equities mainly.
- BTC has since bounced back to 64k and ETH close to 3100.
- Vols and funding/forwards have been largely unchanged.
- The most surprising thing about the markets in the last 24 hours is probably how uninteresting it has been.
- The BTC halving will occur this Saturday in Asia morning and the way the market is reacting, it seems to have been almost forgotten.
Trade Ideas:
BTC halving moonshot?
BTC 26-Apr 70k Call Digi
Payout: 5x
If BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 26 April, you will receive 5 times whatever premium was paid.
BTC 26-Apr 75k Call Digi
Payout: 10x
If BTC expires at-or-above 75k on 26 April, you will receive 10 times whatever premium was paid.
QCP Asia & London Colour - 19 Apr 24
- BTC broke below 60k again in Asia morning following headlines about an Israeli attack on Iran. (BTC low of 59.5k and ETH low of 2865)
- However, once again, BTC bounced hard off this level and is trading back above 64k (ETH well above 3k).
- Today is the eve of the BTC halving and the market appears to have formed a clearly defined baseline support level around the recent lows.
- As a result, we have seen a flurry of options activity around the year-end expiry as investors begin to position for a post-halving resumption of the uptrend and a breakout from this two month long consolidation.
- What level will BTC settle on at the end of a watershed year?
Trade Ideas:
The following are some potential strategies catered for a defined year-end view on BTC. (spot ref: 64,500)
1. ERKO (100/200k)
Max payout: 20.4X
Price: 4900 USD per BTC
Strike: 100k
KO: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
This strategy will earn a return if BTC spot expires above 100k level at year end.
At expiry, if BTC spot trades right below the 200k level, it will earn $100k per BTC notional or 20.4X of the premium paid.
Anything in between 100k and 200k is a pro-rated return.
If BTC spot expires at-or-above 200k, the payout is zero.
2. DIGI (200k)
Payout: 20X
Strike: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, if BTC spot trades at-or-above 200k, the payout is 20X of the premiums paid.
If BTC spot expires below 200k, the payout is zero.
*These strategies can be structured as zero-downside notes on a USD deployment as well for a more conservative strategy.
Clients may check on your trade chat directly for details.
- BTC broke below 60k again in Asia morning following headlines about an Israeli attack on Iran. (BTC low of 59.5k and ETH low of 2865)
- However, once again, BTC bounced hard off this level and is trading back above 64k (ETH well above 3k).
- Today is the eve of the BTC halving and the market appears to have formed a clearly defined baseline support level around the recent lows.
- As a result, we have seen a flurry of options activity around the year-end expiry as investors begin to position for a post-halving resumption of the uptrend and a breakout from this two month long consolidation.
- What level will BTC settle on at the end of a watershed year?
Trade Ideas:
The following are some potential strategies catered for a defined year-end view on BTC. (spot ref: 64,500)
1. ERKO (100/200k)
Max payout: 20.4X
Price: 4900 USD per BTC
Strike: 100k
KO: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
This strategy will earn a return if BTC spot expires above 100k level at year end.
At expiry, if BTC spot trades right below the 200k level, it will earn $100k per BTC notional or 20.4X of the premium paid.
Anything in between 100k and 200k is a pro-rated return.
If BTC spot expires at-or-above 200k, the payout is zero.
2. DIGI (200k)
Payout: 20X
Strike: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, if BTC spot trades at-or-above 200k, the payout is 20X of the premiums paid.
If BTC spot expires below 200k, the payout is zero.
*These strategies can be structured as zero-downside notes on a USD deployment as well for a more conservative strategy.
Clients may check on your trade chat directly for details.
QCP Web3 Watch - 22 Apr 24
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? In our latest piece, we explore the current state of (i) Ordinals, (ii) Runes (iii) BRC20 and (iv) BTC L2s, pre-halving.
Read more here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/web3-watch-21
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? In our latest piece, we explore the current state of (i) Ordinals, (ii) Runes (iii) BRC20 and (iv) BTC L2s, pre-halving.
Read more here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/web3-watch-21
QCP Capital
Web3 Watch - QCP Capital
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? Let’s
QCP New York Colour - 22 Apr 24
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
QCP New York Colour - 23 Apr 24
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.
QCP New York Colour - 24 Apr 24
- The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term.
- Notably, there was concentrated selling of BTC end-May 80k calls in yesterday's NY session (over 1000 BTC) which crushed both front end vols and forwards.
- May vols are now close to 60% and the May forward was pushed down to 5% yield at one point! The forward curve is now upward sloping with only Sep and further out still yielding over 10%...for now.
Trade Idea:
New Product - ZCC (Zero Coupon Convertible)
With yield compressing in a consolidation phase, the ZCC strategy stands out as it provides an upfront payment that comes with protection on the downside.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC ZCC (28-Jun expiry, 55k strike, 50k protection)
Upfront payment of $3200 per BTC (33%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 50k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k.
2. BTC ZCC (27-Sep expiry, 50k strike, 40k protection)
Upfront payment of $6300 per BTC (30%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 40k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 40k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 50k.
- The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term.
- Notably, there was concentrated selling of BTC end-May 80k calls in yesterday's NY session (over 1000 BTC) which crushed both front end vols and forwards.
- May vols are now close to 60% and the May forward was pushed down to 5% yield at one point! The forward curve is now upward sloping with only Sep and further out still yielding over 10%...for now.
Trade Idea:
New Product - ZCC (Zero Coupon Convertible)
With yield compressing in a consolidation phase, the ZCC strategy stands out as it provides an upfront payment that comes with protection on the downside.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC ZCC (28-Jun expiry, 55k strike, 50k protection)
Upfront payment of $3200 per BTC (33%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 50k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 50k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k.
2. BTC ZCC (27-Sep expiry, 50k strike, 40k protection)
Upfront payment of $6300 per BTC (30%pa yield).
At expiry, if BTC is above the 40k protection level nothing happens and full USD principal is released.
Only if BTC is under 40k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 50k.
QCP Asia Colour - 25 Apr 24
- Heavy selling of BTC options over the last 2 days has seen the vol curve collapse . BTC May vols have dropped by over 12% in 3 days!
- This is the result of spot price being stuck in a tight range and the basis yields drying up. The desk has seen many customers pivot back to option selling strategies.
- Strategies like HYPP (below) take advantage of the low vol levels to express a medium term bullish view.
Trade Idea:
BTC HYPP (High Yield Participation Product)
Payout: 50%pa each week BTC spot fixes above 80k
Expiry: 19 Jul (3 months)
This is a zero-downside product. At expiry, the full USD principal is returned.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
- Heavy selling of BTC options over the last 2 days has seen the vol curve collapse . BTC May vols have dropped by over 12% in 3 days!
- This is the result of spot price being stuck in a tight range and the basis yields drying up. The desk has seen many customers pivot back to option selling strategies.
- Strategies like HYPP (below) take advantage of the low vol levels to express a medium term bullish view.
Trade Idea:
BTC HYPP (High Yield Participation Product)
Payout: 50%pa each week BTC spot fixes above 80k
Expiry: 19 Jul (3 months)
This is a zero-downside product. At expiry, the full USD principal is returned.
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
QCP Weekend Brief - 27 Apr 24
- This week saw BTC vols drastically compress, from 70% to 50%.
- The downside skew in ETH risk reversals have also deepened to -13% in the front-end, possibly in anticipation of further delays in the SECs approval of ETH spot ETF.
- Has the market lost faith or is this just a short pause in a longer-term bull run?
- There is a potentially positive catalyst next week as the HK BTC and ETH spot ETFs begin trading. Interest is growing in what could be a gateway for the inflow of Asian institutional capital.
Trade Idea:
If you are still a bullish believer, a consolidating market could be the best time to accumulate longs in both BTC and ETH. Deploying a longer tenor takes advantage of the higher vols further out, given the steepness of the vol curve (Dec trading at a 15% premium to May).
BTC Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy BTC weekly at 51,500 (20% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 63.7k. upper barrier: 73.5k]
ETH Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy ETH weekly at 2450 (22% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 3140, upper barrier: 3625]
Please ask directly in your trading chat for more details
- This week saw BTC vols drastically compress, from 70% to 50%.
- The downside skew in ETH risk reversals have also deepened to -13% in the front-end, possibly in anticipation of further delays in the SECs approval of ETH spot ETF.
- Has the market lost faith or is this just a short pause in a longer-term bull run?
- There is a potentially positive catalyst next week as the HK BTC and ETH spot ETFs begin trading. Interest is growing in what could be a gateway for the inflow of Asian institutional capital.
Trade Idea:
If you are still a bullish believer, a consolidating market could be the best time to accumulate longs in both BTC and ETH. Deploying a longer tenor takes advantage of the higher vols further out, given the steepness of the vol curve (Dec trading at a 15% premium to May).
BTC Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy BTC weekly at 51,500 (20% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 63.7k. upper barrier: 73.5k]
ETH Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy ETH weekly at 2450 (22% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 3140, upper barrier: 3625]
Please ask directly in your trading chat for more details
QCP Weekend Macro - 28 Apr
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
QCP Weekend Macro - 28 Apr
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
Data Prints, Inflation and Monetary Policy
* US GDP in 1Q24 grew 1.6% q/q v 2.5% exp.
* Core PCE YoY was 2.8% v 2.6% exp.
* PCE YoY was 2.7% v 2.6%
- Some worrying data out of the US this week. The weaker than expected GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side.
- If GDP were to continue weakening and inflation remains sticky, the US might go into a stagflation scenario (negative GDP growth & high inflation) , but that is not our base case yet.
- On the back of this data, markets are now pricing in 1 cut in 2024. This is a stark difference to 7 priced at the start of the year, and 3 in March.
Yellen, the TGA, RRP and Fiscal Policy
- However, at this point monetary policy might matter much less than fiscal policy which will be the main driver of liquidity and asset performance.
- The US Treasury General Account (TGA), has close to USD 1 trillion in assets, after large US treasury issuances this year and strong tax receipts.
- The US Govt can choose to spend the money in the TGA, potentially injecting 1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system. We feel this is likely, given how close we are to US elections.
- The upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on 1st May could also see higher issuances in short term US bills. This will drain the RRP, which currently has USD 400 billion and also increase liquidity.
- Yellen had previously used the QRA to influence short term interest rates in Oct 2023. We saw 2Y yields peak at 5.2%, equities bottomed and started the race to new highs after Oct 2023. It is very possible that she will repeat this action to some degree.
- Between the TGA and RRP, there is a potential $1.4 trillion of liquidity, ready for injection. This could be the main driver for bullishness into the end of the year.
Trade Ideas
In spite of major macro movements and conflict headlines in the last few weeks, vols and funding have been crushed. The best strategy might be to put on some cheap topside structures, sit back and watch everything play out. We recommend a few below:
(BTC spot ref: 64k)
1. BTC Call ERKO (90/150k 27-DEC)
Max payout: $60,000 per BTC (16.4x)
Cost: $3,650 per BTC
2. BTC Call DIGI (120k 27-DEC)
Payout: 7.15x
Please check in your trading chat for more details
QCP London & New York Colour - 29 Apr 24
- We saw large and aggressive BTC call buying in the London session (about 500x JUN 65k C) but vols continued drifting lower in spite of the significant option buying.
- Although short-term realised volatility is indeed depressed given the tight spot range, the market is possibly overly complacent given prevailing macro developments (Middle East conflict, potential US stagflation, Yen weakness, US fiscal injection, etc).
- Perp funding is largely flat with many Altcoins showing negative funding which opens up a path for speculators to build leveraged long positions.
Trade Ideas (BTC spot ref: 62k)
1. Low-risk yield generating strategy
BTC ZCC (27-DEC)
Upfront payout: 20%pa
Strike: 45k
Protection Level: 40k
2. Zero-downside moonshot strategy
BTC Enhanced Sharkfin (27-DEC)
Max Payout: 69% pa
Guaranteed Coupon: 3% pa
Call Strike: 80k
Knockout: 115k
- We saw large and aggressive BTC call buying in the London session (about 500x JUN 65k C) but vols continued drifting lower in spite of the significant option buying.
- Although short-term realised volatility is indeed depressed given the tight spot range, the market is possibly overly complacent given prevailing macro developments (Middle East conflict, potential US stagflation, Yen weakness, US fiscal injection, etc).
- Perp funding is largely flat with many Altcoins showing negative funding which opens up a path for speculators to build leveraged long positions.
Trade Ideas (BTC spot ref: 62k)
1. Low-risk yield generating strategy
BTC ZCC (27-DEC)
Upfront payout: 20%pa
Strike: 45k
Protection Level: 40k
2. Zero-downside moonshot strategy
BTC Enhanced Sharkfin (27-DEC)
Max Payout: 69% pa
Guaranteed Coupon: 3% pa
Call Strike: 80k
Knockout: 115k
QCP London & New York Colour - 30 Apr 24
- The Hong Kong BTC and ETH spot ETFs kicked off today with terribly disappointing volumes. BTC saw $8.5m and ETH saw $2.5m in volume.
- This might be an indication that institutional crypto interest is concentrated in the US while Asian interest is more private wealth focused and natively dominated.
- The market is trading heavy on the back of this with BTC touching 61k and ETH close to 3k.
- With Amazon earnings and CZ's sentencing coming out this evening we might be looking at a volatile session into New York hours.
Trade Ideas:
Short term downside hedges that are relatively low-cost
(spot ref: BTC 61.2k. ETH 3010)
BTC 31-May (58k Put / KO 50k)
Max payout: 8.25x
Cost per BTC: $850
ETH 31-May (2700 Put / KO 2200)
Max payout: 10.63x
Cost per ETH: $47
- The Hong Kong BTC and ETH spot ETFs kicked off today with terribly disappointing volumes. BTC saw $8.5m and ETH saw $2.5m in volume.
- This might be an indication that institutional crypto interest is concentrated in the US while Asian interest is more private wealth focused and natively dominated.
- The market is trading heavy on the back of this with BTC touching 61k and ETH close to 3k.
- With Amazon earnings and CZ's sentencing coming out this evening we might be looking at a volatile session into New York hours.
Trade Ideas:
Short term downside hedges that are relatively low-cost
(spot ref: BTC 61.2k. ETH 3010)
BTC 31-May (58k Put / KO 50k)
Max payout: 8.25x
Cost per BTC: $850
ETH 31-May (2700 Put / KO 2200)
Max payout: 10.63x
Cost per ETH: $47
QCP London & New York Colour - 1 May 24
- The US dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything.
- USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well.
- Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse.
- There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it.
- Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip.
- Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end), it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.
Trade Idea:
If you think we've already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection.
(spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910)
BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level).
Threshold: 55k
Strike: 50k
Protection: 45k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price.
ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level).
Threshold: 2,800
Strike: 2,500
Protection: 2,200
At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.
- The US dollar is on a rampaging rally against everything.
- USDJPY breached a historic 160 level on Monday, forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene. US 2-year yields broke above 5% on the back of resurgent inflation fears and the market is very nervous about 10-year yields breaking above 5% as well.
- Crypto markets were not spared with BTC trading to 56.5k lows and ETH to 2814 lows. Altcoins fared significantly worse.
- There are two important events happening today that could either exacerbate this bearish move or reverse it.
- Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip.
- Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end), it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.
Trade Idea:
If you think we've already seen the lows in BTC and ETH and prices will stabilise or rally from here, the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible) provides very strong returns with downside protection.
(spot ref: BTC 57.5k, ETH 2,910)
BTC CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 41% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 55k (Threshold level).
Threshold: 55k
Strike: 50k
Protection: 45k
At expiry, only if spot price is below 45k, the USD deployed is converted to BTC at 50k price.
ETH CFCC (26-JUL 12 weeks)
Coupon payment: 45% pa every Friday as long as spot price is above 2,800 (Threshold level).
Threshold: 2,800
Strike: 2,500
Protection: 2,200
At expiry, only if spot price is below 2,200, the USD deployed is converted to ETH at 2,500 price.
QCP London & New York Colour - 2 May 24
- Both FOMC and QRA were more dovish than expected.
- At FOMC, Powell said that the Fed is not looking to hike rates and announced the slowing of Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60bn monthly to $25bn.
- For QRA, the Treasury will keep issuances for longer maturities unchanged, reducing fears of a spike in longer-term yields.
- This should help to push down the USD rally which is positive for risk assets.
- BTC has bounced off the 56.5k low and has decisively broke above 58k. ETH has rallied close to 3k again.
- Will we now see a resumption of the bull market?
Trade Ideas:
Zero-cost strategy for max upside on a big bounce in spot price!
(spot ref: BTC 58.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 31-May
Strikes: Sell 56k Put + Buy 60k Call (75k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $15,000 per BTC or 337% pa if BTC spot price is just under 75k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 56k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 56k price.
- Both FOMC and QRA were more dovish than expected.
- At FOMC, Powell said that the Fed is not looking to hike rates and announced the slowing of Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60bn monthly to $25bn.
- For QRA, the Treasury will keep issuances for longer maturities unchanged, reducing fears of a spike in longer-term yields.
- This should help to push down the USD rally which is positive for risk assets.
- BTC has bounced off the 56.5k low and has decisively broke above 58k. ETH has rallied close to 3k again.
- Will we now see a resumption of the bull market?
Trade Ideas:
Zero-cost strategy for max upside on a big bounce in spot price!
(spot ref: BTC 58.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 31-May
Strikes: Sell 56k Put + Buy 60k Call (75k Knock-out)
Cost: ZERO
Max payout: $15,000 per BTC or 337% pa if BTC spot price is just under 75k at expiry.
[Downside]: At expiry, if BTC spot price is under 56k level, USD deployed is converted to BTC at 56k price.