QCP New York Colour – 1 Apr 24
- A dovish Powell last Friday kept markets supported over the long weekend.
- In the last 24 hours, we've seen significant interest to sell calls and buy puts in both BTC and ETH.
- This has put some downward pressure on spot price and has also kept implied vols high, particularly in ETH where demand for puts have been much higher than for calls in the front-end (downside risk reversal skew -5% in April)
Trade Idea:
- Accumulators have been outstanding in this range-y market, allowing investors to buy BTC close to 50k level even with BTC spot trading around 70k.
- A 12-week Accumulator (spot ref 68.5k) allows you to buy BTC weekly below 57k (17% discount to market!)
*upper barrier at 75k
- Clients may check with the desk for more details
- A dovish Powell last Friday kept markets supported over the long weekend.
- In the last 24 hours, we've seen significant interest to sell calls and buy puts in both BTC and ETH.
- This has put some downward pressure on spot price and has also kept implied vols high, particularly in ETH where demand for puts have been much higher than for calls in the front-end (downside risk reversal skew -5% in April)
Trade Idea:
- Accumulators have been outstanding in this range-y market, allowing investors to buy BTC close to 50k level even with BTC spot trading around 70k.
- A 12-week Accumulator (spot ref 68.5k) allows you to buy BTC weekly below 57k (17% discount to market!)
*upper barrier at 75k
- Clients may check with the desk for more details
QCP Asia Morning Colour - 2 Apr 24
- Once again, the options market provided an early signal to a sharp downside move, particularly the downside skew in risk reversals.
- BTC broke 70k and traded below 66k. ETH traded to 3320 lows.
- The speed of the move was due to large liquidations on retail-heavy exchanges like Binance which saw perp funding rates go from as high as 77% to flat.
- The move brings spot prices right back into the middle the 60-72k range.
- While perp funding has compressed, the rest of the forward curve remains very elevated. Will this be the move that brings the whole curve back down?
Trade Ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis which is still yielding 20% for zero downside.
2. Strategies that do well in range-y market like Accumulators, UFCC/CFCC and Range Accruals.
Clients may check with the desk through their trading chat for more details.
- Once again, the options market provided an early signal to a sharp downside move, particularly the downside skew in risk reversals.
- BTC broke 70k and traded below 66k. ETH traded to 3320 lows.
- The speed of the move was due to large liquidations on retail-heavy exchanges like Binance which saw perp funding rates go from as high as 77% to flat.
- The move brings spot prices right back into the middle the 60-72k range.
- While perp funding has compressed, the rest of the forward curve remains very elevated. Will this be the move that brings the whole curve back down?
Trade Ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis which is still yielding 20% for zero downside.
2. Strategies that do well in range-y market like Accumulators, UFCC/CFCC and Range Accruals.
Clients may check with the desk through their trading chat for more details.
QCP Macro Minute - 2 Apr 24
- The market is starting to price down 3 rates cuts for 2024 (lower now to 2.75 cuts) for a few reasons:
1. Both Powell and Waller said the Fed was in "no rush to cut rates"
2. PMI numbers came in above 50, showing an expanding economy (and therefore no need to cut rates).
3. Energy prices heading higher with US gasoline close to 2023 summer highs (making it dangerous to cut rates).
- USD and US yields have moved higher, equities are trading soft and Bitcoin has been under pressure.
- If the Fed cuts continue to get priced out, will we see a full-on risk off hitting asset prices hard across the board?
- The answer is a likely 'yes' but we still think that BTC is a 'buy-on-dip' because:
a. The desk continues to see consistent buying of calls in the long end up to Dec 24 - Mar 25 (indication structural bullishness in BTC)
b. Increasing institutional participation and demand for spot ETFs, which could mean traditional finance is just getting started
One of the best ways to buy the dip
- Deploy an Accumulator which would allow you to buy BTC spot at 55.5k (15.3% discount to spot) for the next 12 weeks.
(spot ref: 65,500, upper barrier at 70k)
- The market is starting to price down 3 rates cuts for 2024 (lower now to 2.75 cuts) for a few reasons:
1. Both Powell and Waller said the Fed was in "no rush to cut rates"
2. PMI numbers came in above 50, showing an expanding economy (and therefore no need to cut rates).
3. Energy prices heading higher with US gasoline close to 2023 summer highs (making it dangerous to cut rates).
- USD and US yields have moved higher, equities are trading soft and Bitcoin has been under pressure.
- If the Fed cuts continue to get priced out, will we see a full-on risk off hitting asset prices hard across the board?
- The answer is a likely 'yes' but we still think that BTC is a 'buy-on-dip' because:
a. The desk continues to see consistent buying of calls in the long end up to Dec 24 - Mar 25 (indication structural bullishness in BTC)
b. Increasing institutional participation and demand for spot ETFs, which could mean traditional finance is just getting started
One of the best ways to buy the dip
- Deploy an Accumulator which would allow you to buy BTC spot at 55.5k (15.3% discount to spot) for the next 12 weeks.
(spot ref: 65,500, upper barrier at 70k)
QCP New York Colour – 03 Apr 24
- In Asia time, we saw some new and sizeable buying of BTC calls and selling of puts in the front-end. One might recall that the opposite of this preceded the Monday sell-off.
- This was followed by positive numbers from BTC spot ETF overnight.
- As a result, we've seen a nice lift from the 64.5k lows in BTC. It remains to be seen if this is the bounce that will break us out of this range.
- For now, we are still right smack in the middle of the 60 - 72k range.
- Perp funding has flattened and is dragging the rest of the forward curve lower with it. It could be a chance to sell some spot-forward basis before it normalizes.
Indicative Basis Run
- In Asia time, we saw some new and sizeable buying of BTC calls and selling of puts in the front-end. One might recall that the opposite of this preceded the Monday sell-off.
- This was followed by positive numbers from BTC spot ETF overnight.
- As a result, we've seen a nice lift from the 64.5k lows in BTC. It remains to be seen if this is the bounce that will break us out of this range.
- For now, we are still right smack in the middle of the 60 - 72k range.
- Perp funding has flattened and is dragging the rest of the forward curve lower with it. It could be a chance to sell some spot-forward basis before it normalizes.
Indicative Basis Run
| BTC | Basis | AnnRate(%) |
| 31MAY24 | 1965.49 | 18.62 |
| 28JUN24 | 2944.24 | 18.81 |
| 27SEP24 | 5832.99 | 18.11 |
| 27DEC24 | 7912.99 | 16.22 |
| 28MAR25 | 9897.99 | 15.15 |
QCP Asia Morning Colour - 5 Apr 24
- The second quarter of 2024 has started with a whimper.
- BTC price sunk under 70k and has been stuck in a relatively tight range since.
- ETF flows have not been significant enough to catalyze price action in either direction.
- As a result, funding has flattened and the front-end of the forward curve has fallen from 50% highs to under 20% now.
- Interestingly enough, the back-end of the forward curve remains elevated and the desk has seen interest to roll spot - forward basis positions further out at as a result. This is possibly due to the continued demand for BTC long-dated calls out to 2025.
- This BTC topside demand along with some upward momentum in BTC spot ETF inflows should support BTC price and perhaps, even take BTC above 70k by the end of the week?
- ETH, on the other hand, remains soft. The ETHBTC cross is testing a critical support level after breaking below 0.05. There has been persistent large selling of ETH calls which has crushed vols and also put some downside pressure on price.
- Could this again be a very early signal of FOMO turning into fear in ETH as a proxy for Alts?
Trade ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis but further out beyond June
2. Use our Tactical Hedging Facility to lock in big gains on Alts, especially locked up or vesting positions
Please check with the desk for more details.
- The second quarter of 2024 has started with a whimper.
- BTC price sunk under 70k and has been stuck in a relatively tight range since.
- ETF flows have not been significant enough to catalyze price action in either direction.
- As a result, funding has flattened and the front-end of the forward curve has fallen from 50% highs to under 20% now.
- Interestingly enough, the back-end of the forward curve remains elevated and the desk has seen interest to roll spot - forward basis positions further out at as a result. This is possibly due to the continued demand for BTC long-dated calls out to 2025.
- This BTC topside demand along with some upward momentum in BTC spot ETF inflows should support BTC price and perhaps, even take BTC above 70k by the end of the week?
- ETH, on the other hand, remains soft. The ETHBTC cross is testing a critical support level after breaking below 0.05. There has been persistent large selling of ETH calls which has crushed vols and also put some downside pressure on price.
- Could this again be a very early signal of FOMO turning into fear in ETH as a proxy for Alts?
Trade ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis but further out beyond June
2. Use our Tactical Hedging Facility to lock in big gains on Alts, especially locked up or vesting positions
Please check with the desk for more details.
QCP Weekend Brief - 6 Apr 24
- We saw unusually large selling of Perp-June Basis over the last two days for both BTC and ETH.
- This has compressed the front-end and flattened the whole forward curve to 15-17% across the board.
- We suspect the flow could be Ethena related but it could also simply be large players squeezing yield out of elevated forwards as leveraged longs decrease.
- In spite of the tight range in the past week, we are picking up on more BTC bullishness (especially in comparison to ETH) for the following reasons:
1. Increasing BTC spot ETF inflows in the last few days (up to +$232m on Thu)
2. Positive headlines about key traditional finance players like Citadel, Goldman, UBS and Citi joining as Authorised Participants for Blackrock's ETF.
3. Consistently large buying of BTC calls (vs large selling of ETH calls)
4. Reduced leverage in BTC with perp funding flat and the rest of the forward curve lower as well
5. Upcoming BTC halving narrative
- Are these 5 factors enough to take BTC another leg higher?
Bullish BTC Trade Idea: The BTC Moonshot
Deployment in USD. Profit if BTC moons. Buy if BTC dips, and get your principal back if it trades sideways.
Live examples (spot ref 68k):
26-APR expiry
- 350% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
28-JUN expiry
- 340% p.a. profit if BTC is above 110k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 110k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
27-DEC expiry
- 275% p.a. profit if BTC is above 150k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 150k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
- We saw unusually large selling of Perp-June Basis over the last two days for both BTC and ETH.
- This has compressed the front-end and flattened the whole forward curve to 15-17% across the board.
- We suspect the flow could be Ethena related but it could also simply be large players squeezing yield out of elevated forwards as leveraged longs decrease.
- In spite of the tight range in the past week, we are picking up on more BTC bullishness (especially in comparison to ETH) for the following reasons:
1. Increasing BTC spot ETF inflows in the last few days (up to +$232m on Thu)
2. Positive headlines about key traditional finance players like Citadel, Goldman, UBS and Citi joining as Authorised Participants for Blackrock's ETF.
3. Consistently large buying of BTC calls (vs large selling of ETH calls)
4. Reduced leverage in BTC with perp funding flat and the rest of the forward curve lower as well
5. Upcoming BTC halving narrative
- Are these 5 factors enough to take BTC another leg higher?
Bullish BTC Trade Idea: The BTC Moonshot
Deployment in USD. Profit if BTC moons. Buy if BTC dips, and get your principal back if it trades sideways.
Live examples (spot ref 68k):
26-APR expiry
- 350% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
28-JUN expiry
- 340% p.a. profit if BTC is above 110k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 110k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
27-DEC expiry
- 275% p.a. profit if BTC is above 150k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 150k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
QCP Monday Roundup - 8 Apr 24
- Last Friday, we speculated a possible leg higher and we expected the move to be led by BTC.
- We were wrong about the leader as this move has been very much led by ETH.
- Once again, vols were an early signal of this breakout , ticking higher since Sunday before spot price started moving. ETH vols (Apr expiry) are higher by 14% since Sunday!
- It seems like the market had turned complacently short ETH front-end calls and they are now being bought back with a vengeance.
- This has dragged perp funding up to 40% and the rest of the forward curve higher as well with the front-end back above 20%!
- Will this short covering move be enough to drive prices back up to the highs?
Trade Ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis
The market has given us another chance to lock in the front-end above 20% and the far-end above 15%.
2. BTC or ETH Moonshot
This strategy is looking even better with both vols and forwards higher than last Friday:
BTC 26-Apr indicative
- 400% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry.
- If BTC is in between 55k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned in USD.
- If BTC is below 55k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 65k.
(spot ref: 72k)
ETH 26-Apr indicative
- 450% p.a. profit if ETH is above 4500 at expiry.
- If ETH is in between 3000 and 4500 at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned in USD.
- If ETH is below 3000 at expiry, USD is used to buy ETH at 3200.
(spot ref: 3620)
- Last Friday, we speculated a possible leg higher and we expected the move to be led by BTC.
- We were wrong about the leader as this move has been very much led by ETH.
- Once again, vols were an early signal of this breakout , ticking higher since Sunday before spot price started moving. ETH vols (Apr expiry) are higher by 14% since Sunday!
- It seems like the market had turned complacently short ETH front-end calls and they are now being bought back with a vengeance.
- This has dragged perp funding up to 40% and the rest of the forward curve higher as well with the front-end back above 20%!
- Will this short covering move be enough to drive prices back up to the highs?
Trade Ideas:
1. Sell Spot-Forward Basis
The market has given us another chance to lock in the front-end above 20% and the far-end above 15%.
2. BTC or ETH Moonshot
This strategy is looking even better with both vols and forwards higher than last Friday:
BTC 26-Apr indicative
- 400% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry.
- If BTC is in between 55k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned in USD.
- If BTC is below 55k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 65k.
(spot ref: 72k)
ETH 26-Apr indicative
- 450% p.a. profit if ETH is above 4500 at expiry.
- If ETH is in between 3000 and 4500 at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned in USD.
- If ETH is below 3000 at expiry, USD is used to buy ETH at 3200.
(spot ref: 3620)
QCP New York Colour - 9 &10 Apr 24
- BTC has dipped back below 69k and ETH below 3500 again on the back of a relatively large $223.8m outflow for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
- The desk continues to see buying of long-dated BTC calls, in particular, sizeable daily buying of Mar 2025 200k Calls.
- We are also starting to see the market position for the ETH spot ETF (upcoming deadline of 23-May) and with signs similar to what we saw ahead of BTC spot ETF approval:
1. Call buyers and elevated perp funding and forwards dragging spot higher and causing the Grayscale spread to increase to -24% (similar to the GBTC discount in October)
2. Increase in long positioning on CME ETH futures
- However, the SEC is not clustering ETH spot ETF deadlines which is what it did ahead of BTC spot ETF approval. Does this mean the likelihood of ETH spot ETF approval is lower?
- Either way, we expect some additional volatility in May. We've sold Apr vol vs. bought May vol at a 2% spread (it was a 10% spread for BTC between the pre-and-post spot ETF expiries).
Trade Idea:
BTC is still a buy the dip for us so we prefer Accumulators
For a 20 week deployment, you are able to buy BTC at 56,850 (17% discount) for every week that BTC trades below 80,150.
(spot ref: 68,500)
- BTC has dipped back below 69k and ETH below 3500 again on the back of a relatively large $223.8m outflow for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
- The desk continues to see buying of long-dated BTC calls, in particular, sizeable daily buying of Mar 2025 200k Calls.
- We are also starting to see the market position for the ETH spot ETF (upcoming deadline of 23-May) and with signs similar to what we saw ahead of BTC spot ETF approval:
1. Call buyers and elevated perp funding and forwards dragging spot higher and causing the Grayscale spread to increase to -24% (similar to the GBTC discount in October)
2. Increase in long positioning on CME ETH futures
- However, the SEC is not clustering ETH spot ETF deadlines which is what it did ahead of BTC spot ETF approval. Does this mean the likelihood of ETH spot ETF approval is lower?
- Either way, we expect some additional volatility in May. We've sold Apr vol vs. bought May vol at a 2% spread (it was a 10% spread for BTC between the pre-and-post spot ETF expiries).
Trade Idea:
BTC is still a buy the dip for us so we prefer Accumulators
For a 20 week deployment, you are able to buy BTC at 56,850 (17% discount) for every week that BTC trades below 80,150.
(spot ref: 68,500)
QCP Asia Morning Colour - 11 Apr 24
A blessed Eid to all our Muslim friends!
- US CPI came in higher than expected at 3.5% (and Core at 3.8%).
- This caused a knee-jerk risk-off across all risk assets as the market priced out the probability of 3 rate cuts this year.
- BTC traded to a low of 67,460 and ETH to 3,410. However, prices have since bounced back strongly with BTC even peeking above 70k!
- This bounce is not surprising as the desk continues to see strong demand for long-dated BTC calls even on this dip, which is indicative of deep structural bullishness in BTC.
- Having said that, if the next few inflation prints continue to be high, it will certainly spook the markets and we could see crypto prices dip significantly.
Trade Ideas:
We continue to like long-dated Accumulators which allow investors to buy BTC or ETH at very deep discounts to spot price.
However, for investors who are concerned about an inflation led risk-off and would like to take profit on some longs here, we do have a series of strategies that allow investors to sell BTC or ETH at a significant premium to spot price (Decumulator, Forward Outright, Stealth, etc).
Clients may approach the trading desk directly for details.
A blessed Eid to all our Muslim friends!
- US CPI came in higher than expected at 3.5% (and Core at 3.8%).
- This caused a knee-jerk risk-off across all risk assets as the market priced out the probability of 3 rate cuts this year.
- BTC traded to a low of 67,460 and ETH to 3,410. However, prices have since bounced back strongly with BTC even peeking above 70k!
- This bounce is not surprising as the desk continues to see strong demand for long-dated BTC calls even on this dip, which is indicative of deep structural bullishness in BTC.
- Having said that, if the next few inflation prints continue to be high, it will certainly spook the markets and we could see crypto prices dip significantly.
Trade Ideas:
We continue to like long-dated Accumulators which allow investors to buy BTC or ETH at very deep discounts to spot price.
However, for investors who are concerned about an inflation led risk-off and would like to take profit on some longs here, we do have a series of strategies that allow investors to sell BTC or ETH at a significant premium to spot price (Decumulator, Forward Outright, Stealth, etc).
Clients may approach the trading desk directly for details.
QCP New York Colour - 11 & 12 Apr 24
- We had the smallest GBTC outflow to date yesterday at just -$17.5m and a decent total BTC spot ETF inflow of +$123.7m.
- The market took this positively, taking BTC up to 71.3k in Asia time.
- However, there has been no follow through and BTC spot price remains stuck around the 70k level.
- In the absence of bullish momentum, the desk is starting to see some profit-taking on long BTC call positions and a shift towards delta-neutral deployments like selling the Spot-Forward Basis (which has pushed the forward curve lower again).
- ETH risk reversals are once again skewed to the downside at -5% in the front-end.
- This has been an early signal for the previous few price dips. Will it prove to be an accurate leading indicator again?
Trade Ideas:
While we remain structurally bullish, deleveraging dips can go very deep especially given the extent of the bull run this year. So if you are looking to hedge short-term downside the following are indicative examples of two possible strategies:
(spot ref: 70.2k)
1. Downside Sharkfin
Deployed with USD and with zero downside, Maximum profit of +80% p.a. if BTC price is just above 58k at 31-May expiry. If BTC price is below 58k or above 65k, 100% of the principal amount is returned. (Pro-rated return in between)
2. Decumulator
Sell BTC at 76k (+8.3% premium to spot price) weekly as long as BTC spot is above 66k.
Please approach the desk directly for details. Strategies available for both BTC and ETH.
- We had the smallest GBTC outflow to date yesterday at just -$17.5m and a decent total BTC spot ETF inflow of +$123.7m.
- The market took this positively, taking BTC up to 71.3k in Asia time.
- However, there has been no follow through and BTC spot price remains stuck around the 70k level.
- In the absence of bullish momentum, the desk is starting to see some profit-taking on long BTC call positions and a shift towards delta-neutral deployments like selling the Spot-Forward Basis (which has pushed the forward curve lower again).
- ETH risk reversals are once again skewed to the downside at -5% in the front-end.
- This has been an early signal for the previous few price dips. Will it prove to be an accurate leading indicator again?
Trade Ideas:
While we remain structurally bullish, deleveraging dips can go very deep especially given the extent of the bull run this year. So if you are looking to hedge short-term downside the following are indicative examples of two possible strategies:
(spot ref: 70.2k)
1. Downside Sharkfin
Deployed with USD and with zero downside, Maximum profit of +80% p.a. if BTC price is just above 58k at 31-May expiry. If BTC price is below 58k or above 65k, 100% of the principal amount is returned. (Pro-rated return in between)
2. Decumulator
Sell BTC at 76k (+8.3% premium to spot price) weekly as long as BTC spot is above 66k.
Please approach the desk directly for details. Strategies available for both BTC and ETH.
QCP Weekend Brief - 13 Apr 24
- The downside skew in the ETH risk reversal that we highlighted on Friday has proven to be an accurate early downside indicator.
- Likely because of its sensitivity to crypto market anxiety as speculators who are long Alts tend to hedge using ETH puts.
- Overnight, the macro trigger was the threat of Iranian retaliation to Israel which caused a sell-off across all risk assets.
- BTC traded to 65.1k lows, ETH to 3100 and Alts sold off around 20-30%.
- The market was caught off guard by this move with perp funding driven to negative to (over -40%), the deepest it's been this year.
- The negative perp funding has also crushed the forward curve with the front-end now below 10%.
- With this move, BTC is right back in the middle of a tightening range between 64k and 73k.
Trade Idea:
Even though we are about a week out from BTC halving, BTC might struggle to break out of this defined range in the short-term. We recommend the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible).
Indicative pricing below (spot ref: 68k):
1. If you are long BTC, do a call-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 60% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 64,000
Strike: 73,000
Protection Level: 80,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is above 64k. you will get a yield of 60%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is above 80k, BTC will be converted to USD at 73k strike. If spot price is below 80k, 100% of the BTC principal is returned.
2. If you are deploying USD, do a put-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 66% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 73,000
Strike: 64,000
Protection Level: 60,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is below 73k. you will get a yield of 66%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is below 60k, USD will be converted to BTC at 64k strike. If spot price is above 60k, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
- The downside skew in the ETH risk reversal that we highlighted on Friday has proven to be an accurate early downside indicator.
- Likely because of its sensitivity to crypto market anxiety as speculators who are long Alts tend to hedge using ETH puts.
- Overnight, the macro trigger was the threat of Iranian retaliation to Israel which caused a sell-off across all risk assets.
- BTC traded to 65.1k lows, ETH to 3100 and Alts sold off around 20-30%.
- The market was caught off guard by this move with perp funding driven to negative to (over -40%), the deepest it's been this year.
- The negative perp funding has also crushed the forward curve with the front-end now below 10%.
- With this move, BTC is right back in the middle of a tightening range between 64k and 73k.
Trade Idea:
Even though we are about a week out from BTC halving, BTC might struggle to break out of this defined range in the short-term. We recommend the CFCC (Conditional Fixed Coupon Convertible).
Indicative pricing below (spot ref: 68k):
1. If you are long BTC, do a call-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 60% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 64,000
Strike: 73,000
Protection Level: 80,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is above 64k. you will get a yield of 60%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is above 80k, BTC will be converted to USD at 73k strike. If spot price is below 80k, 100% of the BTC principal is returned.
2. If you are deploying USD, do a put-side CFCC
Coupon Rate: 66% p.a.
Maturity: 31MAY24
Coupon Level: 73,000
Strike: 64,000
Protection Level: 60,000
How does it work?
Every Friday, as long as spot price is below 73k. you will get a yield of 66%pa. At expiry, only if spot price is below 60k, USD will be converted to BTC at 64k strike. If spot price is above 60k, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
QCP Extraordinary Market Update - 14 Apr 24
- The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market. BTC traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
- It is likely that BTC was used as a weekend proxy macro hedge and therefore bore the full brunt of the immediate risk-off reaction.
- BTC has since traded back above 64k and ETH above 3000.
- ETH risk reversals dropped all the way down to -18% but is now back up to slightly positive in the front-end! (Chart below)
- This has been our best leading indicator for the downside moves. Will it also be an accurate signal for bullish recovery? If so, there could be opportunities to buy the dip.
- It is worth noting that historically, buying the dip on the outbreak of major geopolitical conflicts has been a profitable trade.
Trade Ideas:
If you would like to buy the dip defensively with some safety buffers, the following are two possible strategies.
Indicative (spot ref: 64,500)
1. BTC Accumulator
Every Friday, buy BTC at 54k level as long as BTC spot remains under 77,400 at the time of observation.
Maturity: 23AUG24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 54,180 (-16%)
Upper Barrier: 77,400 (+20%)
2. BTC Bullish CFCC
Every Friday, you will get a yield of 92.5%pa as long as spot price is above 64.5k.
At expiry, if spot price is below 55k, USD will be converted to BTC at 60k strike.
If spot price is above 55k at expiry, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
Coupon Rate: 92.5% p.a.
Maturity: 27SEP24 (23 weeks)
Coupon Trigger: 64,500
Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 55,000
- The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market. BTC traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
- It is likely that BTC was used as a weekend proxy macro hedge and therefore bore the full brunt of the immediate risk-off reaction.
- BTC has since traded back above 64k and ETH above 3000.
- ETH risk reversals dropped all the way down to -18% but is now back up to slightly positive in the front-end! (Chart below)
- This has been our best leading indicator for the downside moves. Will it also be an accurate signal for bullish recovery? If so, there could be opportunities to buy the dip.
- It is worth noting that historically, buying the dip on the outbreak of major geopolitical conflicts has been a profitable trade.
Trade Ideas:
If you would like to buy the dip defensively with some safety buffers, the following are two possible strategies.
Indicative (spot ref: 64,500)
1. BTC Accumulator
Every Friday, buy BTC at 54k level as long as BTC spot remains under 77,400 at the time of observation.
Maturity: 23AUG24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 54,180 (-16%)
Upper Barrier: 77,400 (+20%)
2. BTC Bullish CFCC
Every Friday, you will get a yield of 92.5%pa as long as spot price is above 64.5k.
At expiry, if spot price is below 55k, USD will be converted to BTC at 60k strike.
If spot price is above 55k at expiry, 100% of the USD principal is returned.
Coupon Rate: 92.5% p.a.
Maturity: 27SEP24 (23 weeks)
Coupon Trigger: 64,500
Strike: 60,000
Protection Level: 55,000
QCP New York Colour 15 & 16 Apr 24
- Buying the weekend dip looked great in Asia morning with BTC climbing back to almost 67k on the back of Hong Kong approving BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Throughout the day vols eased off significantly and the forward curve climbed back up into double digit yields as the market priced out the de-escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
- However, the US session saw another risk-off wave across the board. BTC has been dragged below 63k again.
- There are two things worth noting:
1. ETH risk reversals have turned very negative in the front-end (-12%) indicating nervous sentiment
2. The market is short ETH gamma (near-dated options) which means that a sharp move in either direction would be amplified
Trade Ideas:
Given the nervousness and uncertainty, we would suggest zero-downside strategies with high convexity on ETH like Sharkfins.
Indicative examples for Bullish and Bearish ETH Sharkfin (spot ref: 3100)
1. Bullish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($3500 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 3500 and 3900, max profit is $400 per ETH or 57%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is below 3500 or above 3900, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 3500
Knockout: 3900
Max Payout: 57% p.a.
2. Bearish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($2800 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 2800 and 2500, max profit is $300 per ETH or 54%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is above 2800 or below 2500, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 2800
Knockout: 2500
Max Payout: 54% p.a.
- Buying the weekend dip looked great in Asia morning with BTC climbing back to almost 67k on the back of Hong Kong approving BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Throughout the day vols eased off significantly and the forward curve climbed back up into double digit yields as the market priced out the de-escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
- However, the US session saw another risk-off wave across the board. BTC has been dragged below 63k again.
- There are two things worth noting:
1. ETH risk reversals have turned very negative in the front-end (-12%) indicating nervous sentiment
2. The market is short ETH gamma (near-dated options) which means that a sharp move in either direction would be amplified
Trade Ideas:
Given the nervousness and uncertainty, we would suggest zero-downside strategies with high convexity on ETH like Sharkfins.
Indicative examples for Bullish and Bearish ETH Sharkfin (spot ref: 3100)
1. Bullish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($3500 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 3500 and 3900, max profit is $400 per ETH or 57%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is below 3500 or above 3900, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 3500
Knockout: 3900
Max Payout: 57% p.a.
2. Bearish ETH Sharkfin
Deployment is in USD ($2800 gets exposure to 1 ETH).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is between 2800 and 2500, max profit is $300 per ETH or 54%pa (pro-rated in between).
At expiry, if ETH spot price is above 2800 or below 2500, 100% of the principal is returned.
Expiry: 28JUN24
Strike: 2800
Knockout: 2500
Max Payout: 54% p.a.
QCP Asia & Europe Update - 16 Apr 24
- Crypto markets are getting increasingly nervous with the downside skew in ETH risk reversals sinking even deeper (-20% now).
- We expect this nervousness to persist as the Iran-Israeli conflict develops. The risk-off sentiment has been exacerbated by weakness in US equities too.
- However, we continue to see consistent sizable demand for BTC and ETH calls for longer-term expiries (out to Mar 2025).
- Perp funding for BTC is flattish with the back end of the curve holding steady at double digit yields. Altcoin perp funding is generally negative as well which shows that a lot of the long leverage has been wiped out.
- Is this the time to start picking bottoms?
Trade Idea:
Given the prevailing nervousness, we suggest picking bottoms very defensively by buying BTC or ETH at a significant discount to spot price. For example a 12-week Accumulator to buy BTC at 55k (12% discount!):
BTC Accumulator (Weekly)
(spot ref: 62,500)
Every Friday, you will buy BTC at 55k as long as spot price is below 72.5k level.
Expiry: 5JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55k
Upper Barrier: 72.5k
*Clients may check with the desk for further details or to discuss a strategy
- Crypto markets are getting increasingly nervous with the downside skew in ETH risk reversals sinking even deeper (-20% now).
- We expect this nervousness to persist as the Iran-Israeli conflict develops. The risk-off sentiment has been exacerbated by weakness in US equities too.
- However, we continue to see consistent sizable demand for BTC and ETH calls for longer-term expiries (out to Mar 2025).
- Perp funding for BTC is flattish with the back end of the curve holding steady at double digit yields. Altcoin perp funding is generally negative as well which shows that a lot of the long leverage has been wiped out.
- Is this the time to start picking bottoms?
Trade Idea:
Given the prevailing nervousness, we suggest picking bottoms very defensively by buying BTC or ETH at a significant discount to spot price. For example a 12-week Accumulator to buy BTC at 55k (12% discount!):
BTC Accumulator (Weekly)
(spot ref: 62,500)
Every Friday, you will buy BTC at 55k as long as spot price is below 72.5k level.
Expiry: 5JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55k
Upper Barrier: 72.5k
*Clients may check with the desk for further details or to discuss a strategy
QCP Asia & Europe Colour - 17 Apr 24
- Some calm is slowly returning to the market with BTC and ETH stabilising around 63k and 3050 levels respectively.
- The options desk saw mostly sellers of front-end vols pushing vols down to 70% from highs of over 100%!
- Funding has also normalised with perp rates flattish and the forward curve settling around 10%.
- We were surprised by how calm the markets were given Powell’s hawkish comments which caused the market to price out more Fed cuts this year.
- Perhaps we’ll see some consolidation from an exhausted market in the short-term.
Trade Idea:
If you are upset about missing the Spot-Forward Basis trade for 20-30% yield, you can still get similar yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 26%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 45k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 45k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Expiry: 12JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Coupon Rate: 26% p.a.
- Some calm is slowly returning to the market with BTC and ETH stabilising around 63k and 3050 levels respectively.
- The options desk saw mostly sellers of front-end vols pushing vols down to 70% from highs of over 100%!
- Funding has also normalised with perp rates flattish and the forward curve settling around 10%.
- We were surprised by how calm the markets were given Powell’s hawkish comments which caused the market to price out more Fed cuts this year.
- Perhaps we’ll see some consolidation from an exhausted market in the short-term.
Trade Idea:
If you are upset about missing the Spot-Forward Basis trade for 20-30% yield, you can still get similar yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). indicative example below:
BTC UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
Earn a weekly coupon of 26%pa.
At expiry, as long as BTC spot is above 45k, 100% of the principal is returned.
If BTC spot is below 45k at expiry, you will buy BTC at 55k level.
Expiry: 12JUL24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 55,000
Protection Level: 45,000
Coupon Rate: 26% p.a.
QCP New York Colour - 18 Apr 24
- BTC broke below 60k overnight and ETH traded to 2915 lows on the back of weakness in US equities mainly.
- BTC has since bounced back to 64k and ETH close to 3100.
- Vols and funding/forwards have been largely unchanged.
- The most surprising thing about the markets in the last 24 hours is probably how uninteresting it has been.
- The BTC halving will occur this Saturday in Asia morning and the way the market is reacting, it seems to have been almost forgotten.
Trade Ideas:
BTC halving moonshot?
BTC 26-Apr 70k Call Digi
Payout: 5x
If BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 26 April, you will receive 5 times whatever premium was paid.
BTC 26-Apr 75k Call Digi
Payout: 10x
If BTC expires at-or-above 75k on 26 April, you will receive 10 times whatever premium was paid.
- BTC broke below 60k overnight and ETH traded to 2915 lows on the back of weakness in US equities mainly.
- BTC has since bounced back to 64k and ETH close to 3100.
- Vols and funding/forwards have been largely unchanged.
- The most surprising thing about the markets in the last 24 hours is probably how uninteresting it has been.
- The BTC halving will occur this Saturday in Asia morning and the way the market is reacting, it seems to have been almost forgotten.
Trade Ideas:
BTC halving moonshot?
BTC 26-Apr 70k Call Digi
Payout: 5x
If BTC expires at-or-above 70k on 26 April, you will receive 5 times whatever premium was paid.
BTC 26-Apr 75k Call Digi
Payout: 10x
If BTC expires at-or-above 75k on 26 April, you will receive 10 times whatever premium was paid.
QCP Asia & London Colour - 19 Apr 24
- BTC broke below 60k again in Asia morning following headlines about an Israeli attack on Iran. (BTC low of 59.5k and ETH low of 2865)
- However, once again, BTC bounced hard off this level and is trading back above 64k (ETH well above 3k).
- Today is the eve of the BTC halving and the market appears to have formed a clearly defined baseline support level around the recent lows.
- As a result, we have seen a flurry of options activity around the year-end expiry as investors begin to position for a post-halving resumption of the uptrend and a breakout from this two month long consolidation.
- What level will BTC settle on at the end of a watershed year?
Trade Ideas:
The following are some potential strategies catered for a defined year-end view on BTC. (spot ref: 64,500)
1. ERKO (100/200k)
Max payout: 20.4X
Price: 4900 USD per BTC
Strike: 100k
KO: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
This strategy will earn a return if BTC spot expires above 100k level at year end.
At expiry, if BTC spot trades right below the 200k level, it will earn $100k per BTC notional or 20.4X of the premium paid.
Anything in between 100k and 200k is a pro-rated return.
If BTC spot expires at-or-above 200k, the payout is zero.
2. DIGI (200k)
Payout: 20X
Strike: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, if BTC spot trades at-or-above 200k, the payout is 20X of the premiums paid.
If BTC spot expires below 200k, the payout is zero.
*These strategies can be structured as zero-downside notes on a USD deployment as well for a more conservative strategy.
Clients may check on your trade chat directly for details.
- BTC broke below 60k again in Asia morning following headlines about an Israeli attack on Iran. (BTC low of 59.5k and ETH low of 2865)
- However, once again, BTC bounced hard off this level and is trading back above 64k (ETH well above 3k).
- Today is the eve of the BTC halving and the market appears to have formed a clearly defined baseline support level around the recent lows.
- As a result, we have seen a flurry of options activity around the year-end expiry as investors begin to position for a post-halving resumption of the uptrend and a breakout from this two month long consolidation.
- What level will BTC settle on at the end of a watershed year?
Trade Ideas:
The following are some potential strategies catered for a defined year-end view on BTC. (spot ref: 64,500)
1. ERKO (100/200k)
Max payout: 20.4X
Price: 4900 USD per BTC
Strike: 100k
KO: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
This strategy will earn a return if BTC spot expires above 100k level at year end.
At expiry, if BTC spot trades right below the 200k level, it will earn $100k per BTC notional or 20.4X of the premium paid.
Anything in between 100k and 200k is a pro-rated return.
If BTC spot expires at-or-above 200k, the payout is zero.
2. DIGI (200k)
Payout: 20X
Strike: 200k
Expiry: 27-Dec 2024
At expiry, if BTC spot trades at-or-above 200k, the payout is 20X of the premiums paid.
If BTC spot expires below 200k, the payout is zero.
*These strategies can be structured as zero-downside notes on a USD deployment as well for a more conservative strategy.
Clients may check on your trade chat directly for details.
QCP Web3 Watch - 22 Apr 24
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? In our latest piece, we explore the current state of (i) Ordinals, (ii) Runes (iii) BRC20 and (iv) BTC L2s, pre-halving.
Read more here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/web3-watch-21
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? In our latest piece, we explore the current state of (i) Ordinals, (ii) Runes (iii) BRC20 and (iv) BTC L2s, pre-halving.
Read more here: https://www.qcpgroup.com/insights/web3-watch-21
QCP Capital
Web3 Watch - QCP Capital
Despite the overall drawdown in the markets, Bitcoin has halved! With the halving, could this bring attention back to the various Bitcoin verticals? Let’s
QCP New York Colour - 22 Apr 24
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
- BTC's 4th halving was completed on 19 Apr on Saturday Asia morning. Spot price inched higher over the weekend and not much else.
- The previous three halvings saw spot price move higher exponentially only 50-100 days after the actual halving day. If this pattern is repeated this time, BTC bulls still have a few weeks to build a larger long position.
- What we could see in the short-term is a short-squeeze led by Altcoins and Memecoins which have seen persistent negative funding , with some as deep as -100%.
- With ETH risk reversals normalising to above -4%, improving speculative sentiment could see short covering and a resumption of leveraged longs.
Trade Ideas:
(spot ref: 66k)
1. Structurally bullish BTC
We continue to see consistent large buying of BTC calls expiring at the end of the year and beyond. We think ERKOs provide good risk-reward if you have a longer-term bullish view.
ERKO 27 Dec 2024 75/150k
Max payout: 10.52x
Price: 7130 USD per BTC
ERKO 28 Mar 2025 150/250k
Max payout: 40x
Price: 2500 USD per BTC
2. Build BTC longs in the coming weeks by buying BTC at a large discount (55k level) before the typical post-halving exponential run higher.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 6SEP24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 55,000 (-19.70%)
Upper Barrier: 80,000 (+10.61%)
QCP New York Colour - 23 Apr 24
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.
- BTC is right smack in the middle 60/73k range and BTC front-end vols have trickled down closer to 60%.
- Just last week, we had the fourth BTC halving and the market was panicking over the outbreak of war in the Middle East (which has since de-escalated).
- What can we make of this unsettling quietness in the market?
- Leverage has been reset in the market with funding negative to flat and forwards yielding a neutral 10%.
- Demand from TradFi continues to stream in albeit at a slower pace with BlackRock posting 70 consecutive days of inflows.
- Is this the calm before the (bullish) storm?
Trade Idea:
(BTC spot ref: 66.5k)
Bullish ERKO Seagull
Expiry: 27 Dec
Strikes: 55k / 80k / 140k
USD deployment
1. Upfront premium: $2100 per BTC (5.6%pa)
2. Max payout: $62,100 per BTC (166%pa return) if BTC spot price expires just under 140k level.
3. [Downside] at expiry, if BTC is under 55k USD is converted to BTC at the 55k strike price.