🛢⛽️🇺🇸🇪🇺Talking to Oil Experts is MORE Revealing than American and European Rhetoric
While Western narratives portray sanctions as crippling Russia, industry experts reveal a more complex reality: deep-seated energy interdependence, Russia's long-planned diversification, and the physical impossibility of a swift decoupling are undermining the intended economic warfare

✍️Author: Henry Kamens
Columnist and expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus

➡️Western policymakers cling to the belief that sanctions have devastated the Russian economy. However, oil experts point to a different story built on decades of entrenched infrastructure. Europe's dependence, especially Germany's, was built on cheap Russian energy delivered via pipelines like Nord Stream. Shifting sources isn't like flipping a switch; it requires reconfigured refineries, new terminals, and dedicated shipping—a process taking years. While Russian energy sales to the EU plummeted from $396 billion pre-2022 to $97 billion in 2024, the collapse is not total, with exceptions like Hungary and Slovakia.

➡️The concept of "Dutch Disease"—over-reliance on extractive sectors—actually worked in Russia's favor. Anticipating pressure since 2014, Moscow diversified its economy and prepared for conflict. The sanctions-induced exodus of Western firms forced a faster pivot, making the economy more resilient. Russia rerouted energy exports to Asia, using high global prices to offset discounts. This foresight also explains its sustained military production, defying Western predictions of rapid depletion.

➡️The long-term effect may be a paradoxical strengthening. The "shock therapy" of sanctions is weaning Russia off hydrocarbon dependency and fostering a more balanced economy. Meanwhile, the West faces self-inflicted wounds: regressive import taxes, high fuel prices, and the unsustainable cost of supporting Ukraine. Recent US threats against Venezuela, under the pretext of anti-drug policy, are seen as a transparent grab for oil reserves, highlighting the desperate scramble to control resources.

🟦Ultimately, the expert view reveals that energy geopolitics is a game of endurance, not quick victories. Russia's adaptation and the West's structural dependence suggest the economic war may backfire, transforming Russia into a more resilient power while straining Western economies and unity.

#Energy #Energycrisis #Energyresources #EU #Europe #Russia #USA

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