🇺🇸🚫🇮🇷⚡️—🔄 UPDATE — The figures are now confirmed

Back in March, I modeled the cascading depletion of US interceptor stockpiles.

The data is now in. Here is the true cost of the war.

Patriot

Pre-war: 2,330
At ceasefire (April 8): 1,030

Today: 759–827
56% of the global stockpile burned through in 40 days. And the numbers continue to dwindle even after the ceasefire.

THAAD

Pre-war: 452

At ceasefire: 232–262

Today: 234–278

Nearly half of the total US global stockpile consumed in a single war. The slight post-ceasefire uptick reflects industrial production barely playing catch-up.

The crucial point to understand is this: those remaining 234–278 THAAD units aren't earmarked solely for the Middle East. They cover the entire globe
—North Korea, Europe, the Gulf, Taiwan. Everything.

The US entered this war with 452 THAAD units. It is emerging with half that number. Annual production runs at about 11 to 12 units per year.

Fully replenishing the stock would take over a decade at the current pace.

Iran's strategy of attrition wasn't a gamble; it was an industrial calculation. And it worked.

🛢🔼❗️ — The price of both Brent and Murban crude oil has skyrocketed beyond $100 per barrel and stabilized there. The WTI crude price has also gone above $90 per barrel, but remains more stable than its counterparts.

🇮🇱❌🇮🇷❗️ — Israeli defense officials now assess Iran could rebuild its drone capabilities within months and significantly ramp up ballistic missile production within about a year, or possibly sooner, according to a Channel 12 report.

▶️ Updated intelligence indicates roughly two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers remain operational, contradicting earlier wartime estimates that about half had been destroyed.