$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets.

MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average.

This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

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New trailer for 'BUZZKILL', the highly anticipated 2026 horror-comedy slasher, premieres September 25, 2026.

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✅Holders are realizing profits on $BTC.

✅However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.

✅They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.

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Short-term $BTC holders are back above the sell line.

Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.

More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

❤️Learn more: Nikki Rossi

🚨 Daredevil is officially ending again.

Eight years after Netflix canceled the original series, Marvel is preparing to say goodbye to Matt Murdock once more. 😭

'DAREDEVIL: BORN AGAIN' will end with its third season, with the final episodes expected to arrive on Disney+ in 2027. The news also comes as showrunner Dario Scardapane departs the series after his contract expired.

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New poster for Romain Gavras’ ‘SACRIFICE’ has been released.

Starring Chris Evans, Anya Taylor-Joy, Salma Hayek, Vincent Cassel, John Malkovich, Ambika Mod and Charli xcx.

Premiering October 16 on Netflix.

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MVRV MA30d breaks out of the Accumulation Zone for second time in 2026

“For about 6 months in 2026, the MVRV traded within this range, a pattern that, throughout Bitcoin history has signaled periods of intense accumulation followed by excellent returns

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Bull market: confirmed.

Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023 — the line that has called every bull market since 2019.

Next resistance: $88K–$90K.

On-chain data called this in mid-August. Bitcoin's cleared its supply wall.

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A Return to a Bear Cycle Is Becoming Increasingly Unlikely

“Looking at previous market cycles, declines of this scale have represented more than just short-term rebounds. They have shown enough momentum to bring bearish phases to an end.

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🛢 Oil Above $100 Sparks Another Yield Storm! U.S. Treasury Yields and the Dollar Both Rise as Bitcoin Faces Major Pressure After Hitting an Eight-Month High

📉 According to Zhitong Finance APP, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies fell broadly on Thursday, cooling the rally that recently pushed Bitcoin to an eight-month high. After gaining 9% over the past week, breaking above $87,000 earlier this week, and reaching an eight-month peak, Bitcoin has begun facing pressure from rising international oil prices and the simultaneous climb in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar as oil continues to hover above $100. Oil above $100 is effectively transmitting global macroeconomic pressure into the crypto market.

📊 On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell 1.6% to $82,882, while Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also pulled back. The move came alongside weakness in equity markets, reflecting investors taking profits on recent gains and adjusting their risk exposure as dollar funding conditions tighten. Still, there is some optimism that the rebound could continue: Bitcoin recently broke above its 50-week moving average, providing a technical signal of support for trend traders. Some analysts therefore view the pullback as consolidation within a broader uptrend. The key pricing questions ahead are whether macroeconomic pressure can ease and how positioning adjusts after roughly $15 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Friday.

🇮🇷 The immediate catalyst for the renewed rise in international oil prices was a series of tough signals from both Iran and the United States during the United Nations General Assembly, while the conditions required for normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have yet to be met. On September 23, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in New York that Iran would not give in to U.S. pressure, while still expressing confidence in diplomacy. His remarks came in response to military threats made by Trump the previous day. Iran's security official Mohsen Rezaei also said the country would not reopen the strait until its conditions were met.

🤝 Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, along with Jared Kushner, have exchanged messages through Qatari intermediaries, discussing the reopening of the strait and the possibility of the United States lifting its maritime blockade of Iranian ports. However, significant differences remain between the two sides. This means diplomatic contacts have not yet translated into an executable plan to restore normal shipping, leaving markets to continue pricing in uncertainty surrounding energy supplies from the Gulf.

🛢 The price moves show that this energy shock has already reached a significant scale. Brent crude settled 3.86% higher on September 23 at $103.08 per barrel. Based on the settlement prices of front-month contracts on each trading day, that represents an increase of roughly 42.2% from $72.48 on February 27, the last trading day before the war began, and about 11.8% from $92.17 on August 24. At 5:40 p.m. Beijing time on September 24, Brent had climbed further to $105.51, up 2.36% on the day. Although prices briefly dipped below $100, the rapid rebound afterward shows that optimism over a recovery in supply can still be quickly disrupted by disagreements in negotiations.

💵 The Global Anchor for Asset Pricing Is Rising: How the Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Yields Are Limiting Crypto's Upside

🏦 What the market is trading now is the possibility of further monetary tightening following the Federal Reserve's rate hike. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Since then, stronger-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers' data, a relatively weak Treasury auction, and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr about the possibility of further rate hikes have reinforced expectations for tighter policy. According to market pricing as of the morning of September 24, the probability of another rate hike in October was approaching 70%, up from around 50% a week earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index was holding near 101.08, a two-month high. The core logic is that the combination of an energy price shock and resilient economic demand is causing markets to price in a higher future policy-rate path, increasing the relative appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

📈 The long-end of the Treasury market is also being repriced. During European trading hours on September 24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 5.145%, while the 30-year yield rose as high as 5.444%, its highest level since 2004. From a fixed-income pricing perspective, long-term Treasury yields can be broken down into the expected average level of future short-term interest rates plus a term premium. The former reflects where investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates and for how long, while the latter compensates investors for taking on long-term inflation and interest-rate uncertainty. Energy-driven inflation affects both components, while government debt supply and other financing needs also influence the allocation of long-term capital. Therefore, rising long-term yields reflect a combination of changes in the expected policy path, economic resilience, and the compensation investors require for holding long-duration bonds.

🔄 This shift is being transmitted to the crypto market primarily through three channels: opportunity cost, financing conditions, and cross-asset risk budgets. Bitcoin itself does not generate interest income. When tighter policy expectations increase the appeal of cash and short-term dollar assets, investors demand a higher expected return to hold Bitcoin. Rising dollar funding costs can also reduce the attractiveness of leveraged strategies.

📉 When stocks and bonds move lower at the same time, cross-asset investors may also reduce their overall risk exposure, making cryptocurrencies that have recently posted strong gains natural targets for profit-taking. Research from the Bank for International Settlements has also found that tighter monetary policy is often accompanied by lower risk-taking in crypto markets. Therefore, the core reason Bitcoin and other risk assets are facing a pullback in this cycle is the transmission of tighter global financial conditions into the crypto market. In the short term, crypto prices remain highly sensitive to dollar liquidity and funding costs.

🚀 Bitcoin Pulls Back After Reaching an Eight-Month High
📉 The momentum that recently pushed Bitcoin to an eight-month high has clearly cooled. The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly fell 1.6% to $82,882 after breaking above $87,000 earlier this week. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell to around $2,628. Smaller cryptocurrencies including XRP, Solana, and Zcash also declined.

📊 Broader weakness across financial markets has put pressure on risk assets, prompting some investors to take profits after the recent rally in cryptocurrencies. However, some analysts believe the pullback is temporary and that cryptocurrencies still have room to move higher.

💬 Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said that the stronger dollar, surging bond yields, and falling stock prices triggered the latest round of profit-taking. He said: “Despite the pullback, the uptrend is still intact and has not ended, suggesting that this decline may simply be a temporary pause along the way higher.”

🧩 During the recent rally, cryptocurrencies managed to overcome a number of potentially negative factors, including the failure of U.S. lawmakers to advance long-awaited crypto market-structure legislation that the market had been expecting.

📈 Rajiv Soni, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, said: “The crypto market has performed quite well over the past few weeks.” He added that Bitcoin's break above its 50-week moving average last Friday gave traders confirmation that the rally “still has more room to run.”
💰 For Bitcoin investors, opportunities to take profits had been relatively limited. After months of stagnation, Bitcoin gained 9% over the past week.

🔍 “Bitcoin is falling more because it had previously risen more,” said Ivan Lee, head of trading at QCP Capital. “In reality, its price action has been consistent with other assets.”

🌎 Investors are now watching broader global markets for clues about where the next move could come from.

📉 With futures down 0.6%, the S&P 500 appears set to give back nearly all of its gains for the week. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% as chip stocks came under heavy pressure. Meanwhile, the sell-off in the long end of the U.S. Treasury market continued, with the 30-year Treasury yield climbing to its highest level since 2004. The dollar is also on track for its longest consecutive winning streak since May.

⏰ Crypto traders are also watching the quarterly expiration of roughly $15 billion in Bitcoin options on the Deribit exchange. More than one-third of outstanding contracts are set to expire on Friday. The put-to-call ratio — a closely watched indicator measuring the number of options granting the right to sell relative to those granting the right to buy — stands at 0.70, indicating that there are more contracts positioned for a rise in prices than for a decline.

❤️Learn more: Nikki Rossi

📈 Traders Price in 4 Fed Rate Hikes by June 2027 as Bitcoin Slides Below $83,000

🏦 U.S. Treasury yields across the entire curve are pushing to new highs as traders prepare for a longer stretch of tighter monetary policy. CME FedWatch puts the 4.75% to 5% federal funds range as the likely outcome for June 2027.

💰 That would mean four quarter-point hikes from today's 3.75% to 4% range. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has already raised the fed funds rate by 25 bps this month.

📉 The pressure is across the entire Treasury market. The 20-year yield is approaching 5.5%, which has sent the long-bond ETF (TLT) to all-time lows below $80. While the 10-year yield is above 5.1%, levels last seen in 2007. Borrowing costs are rising beyond the U.S. too, with government bond yields under pressure in France, Germany, the U.K. and Japan.

💵 Higher yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on risk assets. The dollar index has climbed above 101, up 3% this year. Meanwhile, bitcoin has fallen below $83,000, from its local high of $87,500, and gold remains just above $4,200, down 25% from its January all-time high.

📊 Several factors are pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. The economy remains strong: the S&P Global composite PMI, which covers manufacturing and services, exceeded expectations in September, rising almost 4.3% to 58.4.

🛢 Middle East tensions have also made the inflation outlook less certain, which has contributed to oil and diesel prices rising.

🤖 While heavy borrowing to fund AI infrastructure is adding to the supply of bonds competing with Treasuries for investors. Together, stronger growth, inflation risk and greater demand for capital are putting upward pressure on yields.

💴 The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, which is now back at 159 yen. That reverses much of the currency's recovery from around 153 following the reported U.S. and Japanese intervention last month.

🔮 The question is whether the prospect of further Fed hikes will keep lifting yields and the dollar.

❤️Learn more: Nikki Rossi

Bitcoin demand remains negative, but it is recovering from the bottom.

“The trend is shifting toward the positive. If the current momentum persists, spot demand will also flip to positive.

❤️Learn more: Nikki Rossi