👀 For those who don't know

💬 The reason most of these offensives are being carried out is not an extremely favourable shift in the military situation for the Junta but rather because they are a political necessity

📊 China, which has become the Junta's primary life line and main arms supplier, is forcing the Junta to carry out an "election", if you can even call it that, in December of this year.

🥸 China hopes this will give the Myanmar Junta a bit more legitimacy on the international stage and a possible leadership inside the Junta in a way which profits China.

🇨🇳 The Chinese don't like current Junta leader Ming Aung Hlaing and are possibly looking at replacing him with a civilian figurehead from the Military Affiliated and much more Chinese aligned USDP party.

✍️ To make the election as legitimate as possible the Junta is aiming to recapture as many population centres, and the roads connecting them, as they can in time for the elections.

🥸 All of this means that the Junta is basically brute forcing their battlefield successes

🫦 The use of drugs as combat stimulants and the tactic of simply ramming against rebel positions over and over again no matter the causalities till the rebels break are both employed by the Junta.

⚠️ All of this is taking a severe toll on Junta manpower, which they are replenishing via an unpopular conscription campaign, and resources like ammunition and fuel.

🔽 A Junta pilot which defected to rebel forces revealed in an interview that the Junta is having serious problems refueling their air force which is overstretched from operating all across the country.

🇨🇳 To make up for that the Junta has started employing more paragliders as bombers, and Drones, supplied to them by China, as battlefield support.

📉 This presents both a crisis for rebel forces, who have never been hit by counteroffensive's of such scale and ferocity and were caught off guard, leading to unnecessary casualties and loss of territory to the Junta.

📈 However it also presents an opportunity, as when the elections are over the Junta will have likely severely exhausted themselves and their resources which will give rebel forces the chance to strike back

👀 We will have to see around new years if the Junta can consolidate control and entrench themselves successfully or not