🇲🇲🇲🇲 - The Arakan Army and allied groups have allegedly captured a vital Air Defense base that now opens the road towards major Junta military production hub

✍️ The air defense base of Nat Rakyaan which sits on the border between Rakhine and Magway states was surrounded for a while and despite several breakout attempts and resupply via drone drops has now allegedly fallen to the Arakan Army

☄️ This puts the Junta in a difficult position due to the fact that only a few very small "bases" now separates the AA from KaPaSa 14, which is a military production complex supplying the Junta war machine

🤔 It is not yet clear if the Arakan Army is seeking to capture the military production sites in Bago and Magway states or simply trying to build a buffer for their holdings in Rakhine state but it will force the Junta to shift manpower nonetheless

🇲🇲 - The Arakan Army itself will likely have to shift manpower away from the frontlines themselves soon to handle an ongoing issue in Northern Rakhine state

🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲 The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army - ARSA - has started carrying out cross border raids into AA controlled Northern Rakhine from Bangladesh, killing AA personnel and capturing weapons in the process before withdrawing back into Bangladesh

🇧🇩 The AA has complained to Bangladesh about the fact that it is completely impossible for their border guards to just miss these raids which means either ARSA has bribed some of the border guards or they sympathize with the group

✍️ The ULA - The AA's governing body, has recently started reconciliation efforts with the small remaining Rohingya population in Rakhine and the ARSA might be trying to interrupt this process

🇲🇲 - As for the situation in Shan state

⚠️ The Junta offensive against the TNLA continues

🇨🇳 Negotiations mediated by China have taken place since the launch of the offensive however they immediately collapsed due to the Junta making ridiculous demands

🤡 The Junta demanded for the TNLA to return all territory it has captured since it entered the conflict and for it to return to the pre-conflict relationship with the Junta

‼️ However on the battlefield the situation is overall looking good for the Junta

✍️ Kyaukme and Nawngkhio, two of the largest settlements the TNLA has captured so far have been taken by the Junta with the TNLA withdrawing from both after delaying the Junta for a while

🔽 The Junta is now only a few kilometers away from Hsipaw, another one of the largest settlements captured by the TNLA, and the TNLA has reportedly already started withdrawing seemingly not seeking to put up a fight here either

🤔 What exactly the TNLA's strategy is I cannot say but they are actively avoiding any major confrontation with the Junta and just keep withdrawing

🔼 In more positive news the Junta's push for Mogok, the largest settlement the TNLA has captured so far and the most economically valuable, has stopped, if it was stopped by the TNLA or the Junta stopped by themselves for some reason I have no clue

⁉️➕ According to preliminary reports, one of the 4 bodies that Hamas handed over to Israel is not Israeli

🇲🇲 - In Kachin state everything is a stalemate

✍️ The Junta has recaptured most of Bhamo after the KIA failed to root the Junta out from its last positions before the latter received reinforcements

🥸 It is a significant setback for the KIA which invested a large amount of resources and manpower into the Battle

❌ However other offensive operations carried out by the Junta in the state have so far not been blessed by success and stalled out

🤔 The KIA recently held a conference with the Sagaing State's PDF and some of the Chin groups and it's being speculated the KIA will shift into a more supportive role in other areas instead of endlessly ramming their head into a wall in Kachin state

🇨🇾📈🐈 The cat population of the Greek half of Cyprus has exceeded 1 million felines

🇲🇲🇲🇲 - As for what the NUG and it's PDF's + Affiliated groups are up to

⚠️ There is still fighting in Banmauk between PDF + KIA forces VS Junta + SNA forces with the latter two trying to retake territory retaken by the PDF

🇲🇲 PDF forces are also participating in military operations in Magwe and Bago regions as junior partners of the AA and gaining valuable experience under the strongest EAO currently involved in the war

✍️ PDF's are also assisting the TNLA in some fighting against the Junta with most of them holding the northern front in the Mogok direction

👀 Overall some of you may remember that significant reforms were announced and I can report that they are being implemented

🆒 Smaller Units keep getting consolidated into more combat capable larger and better organized units all over Myanmar from the Karen hills to Sagaing

🤔 As for Sagaing, the main "base" or the PDF's, there are rumours that the NUG has been stockpiling ammunition and arms in the region and just generally preparing their logistics

📣 Many people are expecting an offensive in the area sometime in the future, rebel orgs like to start their offensives at the end of October or November

🗓 Take:
Operation 1027 launched 27th October
Operation 1111 launched 11th November
Operation Taungthaman launched 28th October
The Chin offensive launched 11th November

🔜 The NUG MOD did announce that they would carry out a major operation this year back in January and during the setbacks the resistance suffered in the Summer they appealed to the people to be resilient and just wait a bit longer

🤫 So we will have to see, maybe we will see a large scale PDF offensive this year, maybe we won't

🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲 - Finishing off the Myanmar update we head to the lands of the Karen, Karenni and Mon

⚠️ The Junta has also started partial counterattacks in the lands of the Karen and Karenni ahead of the elections

🥸 It's mostly the Junta re-establishing a land connection between the various isolated towns they control in the region via retaking the Highways and mop up rebel cells in towns the Junta plans to hold the elections in

☄️ The fighting is overall not that intense with the exception of Lay Kay Kaw where the Junta and KNLA + Allies are battling it out pretty heavily with the Junta having partially retaken the town with the resistance holding out in the southern part

✍️ The Mon's which have so far been rather distant to the war are consolidating their forces and an effort is being made to merge the various smaller groups into one large unified Mon force

💬 Overall the southern theater is currently the least intense compared to the others however fighting is still ongoing