🇲🇲🇲🇲 - The Arakan Army and allied groups have allegedly captured a vital Air Defense base that now opens the road towards major Junta military production hub

✍️ The air defense base of Nat Rakyaan which sits on the border between Rakhine and Magway states was surrounded for a while and despite several breakout attempts and resupply via drone drops has now allegedly fallen to the Arakan Army

☄️ This puts the Junta in a difficult position due to the fact that only a few very small "bases" now separates the AA from KaPaSa 14, which is a military production complex supplying the Junta war machine

🤔 It is not yet clear if the Arakan Army is seeking to capture the military production sites in Bago and Magway states or simply trying to build a buffer for their holdings in Rakhine state but it will force the Junta to shift manpower nonetheless

🇲🇲 - The Arakan Army itself will likely have to shift manpower away from the frontlines themselves soon to handle an ongoing issue in Northern Rakhine state

🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲🇲 The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army - ARSA - has started carrying out cross border raids into AA controlled Northern Rakhine from Bangladesh, killing AA personnel and capturing weapons in the process before withdrawing back into Bangladesh

🇧🇩 The AA has complained to Bangladesh about the fact that it is completely impossible for their border guards to just miss these raids which means either ARSA has bribed some of the border guards or they sympathize with the group

✍️ The ULA - The AA's governing body, has recently started reconciliation efforts with the small remaining Rohingya population in Rakhine and the ARSA might be trying to interrupt this process

🇲🇲 - As for the situation in Shan state

⚠️ The Junta offensive against the TNLA continues

🇨🇳 Negotiations mediated by China have taken place since the launch of the offensive however they immediately collapsed due to the Junta making ridiculous demands

🤡 The Junta demanded for the TNLA to return all territory it has captured since it entered the conflict and for it to return to the pre-conflict relationship with the Junta

‼️ However on the battlefield the situation is overall looking good for the Junta

✍️ Kyaukme and Nawngkhio, two of the largest settlements the TNLA has captured so far have been taken by the Junta with the TNLA withdrawing from both after delaying the Junta for a while

🔽 The Junta is now only a few kilometers away from Hsipaw, another one of the largest settlements captured by the TNLA, and the TNLA has reportedly already started withdrawing seemingly not seeking to put up a fight here either

🤔 What exactly the TNLA's strategy is I cannot say but they are actively avoiding any major confrontation with the Junta and just keep withdrawing

🔼 In more positive news the Junta's push for Mogok, the largest settlement the TNLA has captured so far and the most economically valuable, has stopped, if it was stopped by the TNLA or the Junta stopped by themselves for some reason I have no clue

⁉️➕ According to preliminary reports, one of the 4 bodies that Hamas handed over to Israel is not Israeli

🇲🇲 - In Kachin state everything is a stalemate

✍️ The Junta has recaptured most of Bhamo after the KIA failed to root the Junta out from its last positions before the latter received reinforcements

🥸 It is a significant setback for the KIA which invested a large amount of resources and manpower into the Battle

❌ However other offensive operations carried out by the Junta in the state have so far not been blessed by success and stalled out

🤔 The KIA recently held a conference with the Sagaing State's PDF and some of the Chin groups and it's being speculated the KIA will shift into a more supportive role in other areas instead of endlessly ramming their head into a wall in Kachin state