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1) Trump makes an announcement.
2) Nothing happens.
3) Trump reverses his announcement.
4) Trump announces progress in the negotiations.
5) Oil prices temporarily drop by $10โ€“15 amid expectations.
6) The deal falls through at the last minute.
7) Trump threatens to bomb Iran again.
8) Oil prices return to their previous levels.
9) See point 1.

We are currently at point 5.

โ€“Axios reports progress in the negotiations, which should lead to a deal.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทThe U.S. and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page memorandum that should bring the war to an end.

The memorandum is a framework agreement that will announce the end of the war, followed by 30 days of negotiations focused on Iranโ€™s nuclear program.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งThere is no mention of demands for Iran to disarm Hezbollah and its other proxies.

The U.S. expects a response from Iran within the next 48 hours (i.e., by midday Friday).
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บFirst-person footage from Ukrainian HUR visiting Russian positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction, during which a few Russian VDV paratroopers were killed and six were taken prisoner
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บShotguns, nets, EW?

Footage of the Ukrainian military shooting down 15 Russian drones in the Konstantynivka area using their rifles

(might be just one guy)
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บVictory Day parades on May 9 have been canceled in 15 Russian regions:
Belgorod Oblast
Voronezh Oblast
Kursk Oblast
Krasnodar Krai
Leningrad Oblast
Nizhny Novgorod Region
Novgorod Region
Pskov Region
Ryazan Region
Saratov Region
Rostov Region
Kaluga Region
Oryol Region
Bryansk Region
Chuvashia
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The Patrol Police released footage showing the moment of yesterday's airstrike on Kramatorsk.

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Norway has allocated an additional โ‚ฌ257 million and Canada โ‚ฌ171 million to PURL initiative to procure weapons and munitions from the USA for Ukraine.
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U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fired on an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to breach the naval blockade, according to CENTCOM. The tanker is "no longer transiting to Iran" after the rudder was hit by 20mm rounds fired from the jet's gatling gun.

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F-18 got a gun kill on a tanker before F-22 got any.
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๐Ÿคก Russia is not the aggressor. We are simply responding to aggression, โ€” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
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๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท
A Sudanese Baykar Akinci drone shoots down a UAE-owned Akinci drone using an Eren missile developed by Roketsan
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The Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier has transited southbound through the Suez Canal to deploy to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in preparation for the previously announced UK-France Strait of Hormuz mission
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The US Air Force now expects to receive the first APG-85 radar for the F-35A fighter in April 2028, nine months earlier than expected.

Its the main part of block 4 upgrade.
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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ› 
Polish MoD and PGZ are negotiating buying another 146 Borsuk IFVs.

This follows 111 vehicle, โ‚ฌ1.55 billion order last march.
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Forwarded from Military_History (Zxar)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโ€” Trump makes a post with an image comparing the week length the Iran conflict was with others throughout history.
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