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AXS: (Request) The current structure suggests that the yellow scenario remains dominant, which represents the bearish interpretation. The chart does not currently display characteristics of a bullish structure.
After the 3-wave advance toward the all-time high and the subsequent 5-wave decline into the 2023 low, the broader structure continues to allow further downside. Within this framework, the market may now be developing a third wave to the downside.
A bullish alternative remains possible in the form of a larger B-wave within the blue scenario. However, the market has recently been rejected strongly from resistance, which keeps the probability elevated that the broader downward sequence continues to unfold.
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$BNB
Binance Coin continues to consolidate below the first resistance region between USD 684 and USD 722. As long as price remains beneath this zone, the market has not yet produced confirmation of a sustained upward breakout. Within the current structure, another marginal low remains possible. While such a move is not required, the microstructure would appear more proportional if the market develops one additional low before attempting a stronger rebound.
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$BTC: One of the most consistent patterns in Bitcoin's macro structure is the compression of cycle tops within the logarithmic regression rainbow:
πŸ”΄ Cycle 1 (2011): Topped at Band 13 β€” Blow-Off Territory
🟠 Cycle 2 (2013): Topped at Band 12 β€” Speculative Excess
🟑 Cycle 3 (2017): Topped at Band 10 β€” Late Expansion Phase
🟒 Cycle 4 (2021): Topped at Band 8 β€” Early Expansion Phase
πŸ”΅ Cycle 5 (Oct 2025): Topped at Band 6 β€” Fair Value Mid Range

Each cycle peak has been approximately 2 bands lower than the previous one. This is consistent with the diminishing-returns thesis. As Bitcoin matures and market cap grows, the relative upside per cycle compresses.
On the support side: Band 3 (Deep Value Zone) has repeatedly acted as a floor during accumulation phases across multiple cycles. Historically, sustained time below Band 3 has been rare and short-lived.
What this tells us: The model suggests we're in a structural shift where "blow-off tops" become less extreme with each cycle, b...
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The confidential circle 2026 February PNL (1).pdf
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JUST IN: πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¦ World's largest oil company Saudi Aramco cuts production at two oil fields, Reuters reports.
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πŸ”₯ JUST IN: Nasdaq Teams Up With Kraken Parent to Advance Tokenized Stocks

Nasdaq has partnered with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, to accelerate the development of tokenized stock trading.
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JUST IN: Tom Lee's 'BitMine' buys 60,976 $ETH worth $122 million.
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πŸ”₯ JUST IN: Nasdaq Teams Up With Kraken Parent to Advance Tokenized Stocks

Nasdaq has partnered with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, to accelerate the development of tokenized stock trading.
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Over $750,000,000,000 has been erased from the US stock market since open.

This has become a daily routine now.
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