New Zealand (Tokelau),

Seat count, by atoll

Atafu
Incumbent: 3
New: 4

Fakaofo
Incumbent: 5
New: 2

Nukunonu
Incumbent: 2
New: 4

Kalolo (ind.), Tuisano (ind.) and Tavite (ind.) are reelected as the Ulu-o-Tokelau trio for Atafu, Fakaofo and Nukunonu respectively.

#Tokelau

Australia, Newspoll poll:

ALP (Centre-left): 32% (-1)
ONP (Right): 27%
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 20% (+2)
GRN (Green): 11% (-1)

+/- vs. 05-08 February 2026

Fieldwork: 23-26 February 2026
Sample size: 1,237

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Redbridge Group & Accent Research poll:

ALP (Centre-left): 32% (-2)
ONP (Right): 28%
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 19% (+2)
GRN (Green): 12% (+1)

+/- vs. 06-12 February 2026

Fieldwork: 23-27 February 2026
Sample size: 1,006

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Redbridge Group & Accent Research poll:

Two-Party Preferred, ALP v L/NP

ALP (Centre-left): 54%
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 46%

+/- vs. 06-12 February 2026

Fieldwork: 23-27 February 2026
Sample size: 1,006

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Redbridge Group & Accent Research poll:

Two-Party Preferred, ALP v ONP

ALP (Centre-left): 54%
ONP (Right): 46%


Fieldwork: 23-27 February 2026
Sample size: 1,006

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

ALP (Centre-left): 30.5% (-0.5)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 23.5% (-0.5)
ONP (Right): 22% (+1.5)
GRN (Green): 11.5% (-1)

+/- vs. 16-22 February 2026

Fieldwork: 23 February - 01 March 2026
Sample size: 1,554

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

ALP (Centre-left): 26.5% (-4)
ONP (Right): 23.5% (+1.5)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 22.5% (-1)
GRN (Green): 14.5% (+3)

+/- vs. 23 February - 01 March 2026

Fieldwork: 02-08 March 2026
Sample size: 1,532

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

Two-Party Preferred, ALP v L/NP

ALP (Centre-left): 56% (+2)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 44% (-2)

+/- vs. 16-22 February 2026

Fieldwork: 23 February - 01 March 2026
Sample size: 1,554

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

Two-Party Preferred, ALP v L/NP

ALP (Centre-left): 54.5% (-1.5)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 45.5% (+1.5)

+/- vs. 23 February - 01 March 2026

Fieldwork: 02-08 March 2026
Sample size: 1,532

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, YouGov poll:

ALP (Centre-left): 30% (+1)
ONP (Right): 26% (+2)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 19% (-3)
GRN (Green): 13%

+/- vs. 17–24 February 2026

Fieldwork: 03-10 March 2026
Sample size: 1,500

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, YouGov poll:

Two-Party Preferred, ALP v L/NP

ALP (Centre-left): 55% (+2)
L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 45% (-2)

+/- vs. 17–24 February 2026

Fieldwork: 03-10 March 2026
Sample size: 1,500

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

New Zealand, Curia poll:

Labour (Centre-left): 34%
National (Centre-right): 28% (-3)
Green (Green): 11% (+1)
NZ First (*): 10% (-1)
ACT (Libertarian): 8% (+1)
Māori (Indigenous): 3%
Opportunity (Centre): 2% (+1)
Outdoors (Green): 2% (+1)
CPNZ (Conservative): 1% (+1)
Vision NZ (Right): 0%

+/- vs. 01-03 February 2026

Fieldwork: 01-03 March 2026
Sample size: 1,000

➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

South Australia regional election

ALP (Centre-left): 35% (-5)
ONP (Right): 28% (+25)
LIB (Centre-right): 16.5% (-19.5)
GRN (Green): 11% (+2)
Ind. (*): 6.5% (-0.5)

+/- vs. Last election result

Fieldwork: 19-23 February 2026
Sample size: 2,172

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

New Zealand, Curia poll:

Seat projection

Labour (Centre-left): 44 (+1)
National (Centre-right): 36 (-3)
Green (Green): 13
NZ First (*): 13
ACT (Libertarian): 10 (+2)
Māori (Indigenous): 4

+/- vs. 01-03 February 2026

Fieldwork: 01-03 March 2026
Sample size: 1,000

➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

South Australia, Two-Party Preferred

ALP (Centre-left): 59%
ONP (Right): 41%


Fieldwork: 19-23 February 2026
Sample size: 2,172

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

New Zealand, Curia poll:

Preferred prime minister

Hipkins (Labour-Centre-left): 23% (+5)
Luxon (National-Centre-right): 21% (-1)
Peters (NZ-First-*): 10% (-3)
Seymour (ACT-Libertarian): 5%
Swarbrick (Green-Green): 5% (-2)

+/- vs. 01-03 February 2026

Fieldwork: 01-03 March 2026
Sample size: 1,000

➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

South Australia, Two-Party Preferred

LIB (Centre-right): 52.5%
ONP (Right): 47.5%


Fieldwork: 19-23 February 2026
Sample size: 2,172

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

Australia, Roy Morgan poll:

South Australia, Two-Party Preferred

ALP (Centre-left): 61% (+6)
LIB (Centre-right): 39% (-6)

+/- vs. Last election result

Fieldwork: 19-23 February 2026
Sample size: 2,172

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia

New Zealand: Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi has been reinstated in Te Pāti Māori (Indigenous) after the High Court ruled that her expulsion from the party was unlawful.

#nzpol #NewZealand #Aotearoa

Australia: Queensland Senator Matt Canavan has been elected as the new leader of the National Party (NAT, Conservative), with Darren Chester as the deputy leader. Canavan defeats Kevin Hogan and Bridget McKenzie in the three-way leadership contest.

➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia