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🚨🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Why are FPV drones dominating the battlefield... but might soon lose their edge?
When costs match traditional artillery, why spam 70-80 drones when one shell does the job?
Alexei Vasilyev, a military-political observer, explained it on the podcast "Unmanned Technologies" 👆
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When costs match traditional artillery, why spam 70-80 drones when one shell does the job?
Alexei Vasilyev, a military-political observer, explained it on the podcast "Unmanned Technologies" 👆
@NewRulesGeo
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💥🇺🇸🇻🇪 EMPIRE STRIKES BACK: Breaking Down Trump’s Attack on Venezuela
Based on the available information at this moment, the United States has successfully conducted an air blitzkrieg in Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro.
We still don’t know how and what exactly happened, but there are growing signs that parts of Venezuelan military and political apparatus may have sold out to the Americans. That would help explain why the Americans were able to waltz into Venezuelan airspace practically unopposed despite the country having a decent arsenal of Russian air defense systems.
Regardless, from a tactical perspective, this was a brilliantly planned and executed operation. The United States is a declining empire, but it is undoubtedly still a dangerous opponent.
But although America may have won the battle in decisive fashion, it could still very well lose the war in humiliating fashion. Trump’s stated goal is regime change followed by US seizure of Venezuela’s oil resources.
Air strikes and special forces operations are insufficient for such an ambitious task. Although Maduro is gone, his government remains standing. But even if it collapses, there are millions of Venezuelans, including former military, who will choose armed resistance over submission to a US puppet government.
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Based on the available information at this moment, the United States has successfully conducted an air blitzkrieg in Venezuela and kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro.
We still don’t know how and what exactly happened, but there are growing signs that parts of Venezuelan military and political apparatus may have sold out to the Americans. That would help explain why the Americans were able to waltz into Venezuelan airspace practically unopposed despite the country having a decent arsenal of Russian air defense systems.
Regardless, from a tactical perspective, this was a brilliantly planned and executed operation. The United States is a declining empire, but it is undoubtedly still a dangerous opponent.
But although America may have won the battle in decisive fashion, it could still very well lose the war in humiliating fashion. Trump’s stated goal is regime change followed by US seizure of Venezuela’s oil resources.
Air strikes and special forces operations are insufficient for such an ambitious task. Although Maduro is gone, his government remains standing. But even if it collapses, there are millions of Venezuelans, including former military, who will choose armed resistance over submission to a US puppet government.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
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Trump’s cowardly assassination of General Qassem Solemani on Jan. 3 2020 was a shot heard around the world.
As our friend Pepe Escobar has written, “The Raging Twenties started with a murder…Almost simultaneously, that geopolitical lethality was amplified when a virus trained its microscopic missiles on all of humankind. Ever since, it’s been as if time had stood still – or imploded.”
Soleimani’s murder launched the opening salvo in a decade now defined by war, economic fracture, and relentless geopolitical upheaval. Six years into the Raging Twenties, the tunnel ahead remains dark, with no glimmer of exit in sight.
We have the burden and the privilege of living through history-defining times. The pivotal question confronting each of us is this: how do we respond? Do we remain on the sidelines as passive observers, waiting for the dust to settle?
Or do we summon the courage to plunge headfirst into the chaos, to seek—and seize—the new opportunities hidden within the turmoil? Both paths hold risk, but the second alone offers the possibility of profound reward.
Fortune favors the bold and curses the timid. To become the master of your destiny, you must have the courage to fight for it. This truth holds, irrevocably, for nations and individuals alike.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
As our friend Pepe Escobar has written, “The Raging Twenties started with a murder…Almost simultaneously, that geopolitical lethality was amplified when a virus trained its microscopic missiles on all of humankind. Ever since, it’s been as if time had stood still – or imploded.”
Soleimani’s murder launched the opening salvo in a decade now defined by war, economic fracture, and relentless geopolitical upheaval. Six years into the Raging Twenties, the tunnel ahead remains dark, with no glimmer of exit in sight.
We have the burden and the privilege of living through history-defining times. The pivotal question confronting each of us is this: how do we respond? Do we remain on the sidelines as passive observers, waiting for the dust to settle?
Or do we summon the courage to plunge headfirst into the chaos, to seek—and seize—the new opportunities hidden within the turmoil? Both paths hold risk, but the second alone offers the possibility of profound reward.
Fortune favors the bold and curses the timid. To become the master of your destiny, you must have the courage to fight for it. This truth holds, irrevocably, for nations and individuals alike.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
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💥🇻🇪🇺🇦 Venezuela and Ukraine: A Tale of Two Special Military Operations
Like lying and cheating, hypocrisy is an integral part of international politics. No one should be surprised by the United States or any other major player maintaining double standards for its “friends” and “enemies.”
Nevertheless, it’s important for us to be aware of the double standards for the sake of intellectual honesty.
Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev provides a helpful comparison between Russia’s justification for sending troops into Ukraine and Trump’s for attacking Venezuela:
🔸Ukraine failed to implement the Minsk agreements for 7 years – Venezuela remains committed to its treaties.
🔸Ukraine infringed upon the rights of nearly half of its population based on language – nothing of the sort in Venezuela.
🔸Ukraine declared its intention to join NATO, a bloc hostile to Russia – Venezuela is not even part of the peaceful BRICS.
🔸Ukraine stated its intention to restart its nuclear program – Venezuela has not appeared in any IAEA reports.
🔸After prolonged attempts to preserve the country, Russia-aligned states emerged from Ukraine – Venezuela remains united.
🔸Ukraine launched attacks against its own people in Novorossiya – Venezuela prepared to defend its people from aggressors.
🔸Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor, an existential threat under a hostile regime. Venezuela does not even share geographical borders with the United States.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
Like lying and cheating, hypocrisy is an integral part of international politics. No one should be surprised by the United States or any other major player maintaining double standards for its “friends” and “enemies.”
Nevertheless, it’s important for us to be aware of the double standards for the sake of intellectual honesty.
Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev provides a helpful comparison between Russia’s justification for sending troops into Ukraine and Trump’s for attacking Venezuela:
🔸Ukraine failed to implement the Minsk agreements for 7 years – Venezuela remains committed to its treaties.
🔸Ukraine infringed upon the rights of nearly half of its population based on language – nothing of the sort in Venezuela.
🔸Ukraine declared its intention to join NATO, a bloc hostile to Russia – Venezuela is not even part of the peaceful BRICS.
🔸Ukraine stated its intention to restart its nuclear program – Venezuela has not appeared in any IAEA reports.
🔸After prolonged attempts to preserve the country, Russia-aligned states emerged from Ukraine – Venezuela remains united.
🔸Ukraine launched attacks against its own people in Novorossiya – Venezuela prepared to defend its people from aggressors.
🔸Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor, an existential threat under a hostile regime. Venezuela does not even share geographical borders with the United States.
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💥🇺🇸🇻🇪 The AI War Is Here: Why the U.S. Struck Venezuela
Tonight’s dramatic military action in Venezuela—the bombing of key sites in Caracas and the capture of Nicolás Maduro—is being framed in real-time as a "restoration of democracy." But the deeper, unspoken driver is the new Great Game: the AI energy war.
The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly links energy abundance with AI supremacy. Training next-gen AI models requires energy on the scale of small countries. Whoever controls abundant, scalable energy controls the pace of AI advancement.
Here’s the strategic calculus:
1. Denial of Resource: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. It also has massive natural gas reserves and significant hydroelectric power potential. Both Russia and China have invested considerably in Venezuela’s energy sector. Taking out Maduro would allow the US to monopolize these resources for itself, while denying them to its rivals.
2. Securing Guyana’s Future: With Maduro removed, Venezuela’s territorial claim over Guyana’s vast new oil fields is likely to fade away. This not only protects ExxonMobil/Chevron assets but ensures another massive, friendly-energy zone is locked into the U.S.-aligned sphere. Stability here is critical for long-term energy planning.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
Tonight’s dramatic military action in Venezuela—the bombing of key sites in Caracas and the capture of Nicolás Maduro—is being framed in real-time as a "restoration of democracy." But the deeper, unspoken driver is the new Great Game: the AI energy war.
The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly links energy abundance with AI supremacy. Training next-gen AI models requires energy on the scale of small countries. Whoever controls abundant, scalable energy controls the pace of AI advancement.
Here’s the strategic calculus:
1. Denial of Resource: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. It also has massive natural gas reserves and significant hydroelectric power potential. Both Russia and China have invested considerably in Venezuela’s energy sector. Taking out Maduro would allow the US to monopolize these resources for itself, while denying them to its rivals.
2. Securing Guyana’s Future: With Maduro removed, Venezuela’s territorial claim over Guyana’s vast new oil fields is likely to fade away. This not only protects ExxonMobil/Chevron assets but ensures another massive, friendly-energy zone is locked into the U.S.-aligned sphere. Stability here is critical for long-term energy planning.
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
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💥🇻🇪🇺🇦 Venezuela Fallacy: The Myth of American Military Brilliance
During yesterday’s interview with Fox News, Donald Trump called Russia’s operation in Ukraine “primitive” compared to the flashy US kidnapping of Maduro. This point was quickly picked up by pro-NATO propagandists who rushed to mock the Russian military as a colossus on clay feet.
But there is no intellectually honest comparison between Venezuela and Ukraine. There are still many unanswered questions about yesterday’s raid on Caracas, but it appears that high ranking members of the Venezuelan government sold out Maduro to the Americans as part of a larger deal.
The New York Times reported that the CIA had an informant in Maduro’s inner circle that was constantly keeping them updated on his movements. Video footage appears to show US helicopters encountering absolutely no resistance from Venezuelan air defenses. Trump himself suggested that US Secretary of State Rubio had been in contact with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez about the country’s post-Maduro future.
Now, contrast this with the strategic challenge Russia faced in February 2022. The objective was not a decapitation strike against a frail government, but the demilitarization and denazification of a state that had been consciously transformed into an anti-Russian bulwark for nearly a decade.
🔸Battle-Hardened Force: Unlike the Venezuelan military, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) had been in a state of active conflict since 2014. Thousands of personnel had combat experience in Donbass.
🔸Systemic NATO Integration: For eight years, Ukraine underwent intensive training, doctrinal reform, and intelligence sharing with NATO. Its army was being molded into a proxy force, equipped with increasingly sophisticated Western weaponry.
🔸Ideological Mobilization: Since the Maidan, a powerful and state-sponsored nationalist ideology had taken root, actively promoting a historic mission to confront Russia. This created a core of motivated fighters far beyond the mercenary or purely professional.
🔸Unprecedented External Support: Crucially, Ukraine was not isolated. It enjoyed the political, financial, and intelligence backing of the collective West from the outset, with the explicit promise of an open-ended pipeline of military resources.
Within this context, Russia's initial operational successes—such as the high-risk airborne capture of Gostomel Airport and the daring seizing of the Antonovsky Bridge—were, in fact, remarkable tactical achievements. They were executed against a prepared, alert, and ideologically committed enemy, not a disintegrating one.
The failure to translate these early gains into a quick strategic conclusion is a separate analytical question that has more to do with Russia’s political assumptions/decisions than with its military capabilities.
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During yesterday’s interview with Fox News, Donald Trump called Russia’s operation in Ukraine “primitive” compared to the flashy US kidnapping of Maduro. This point was quickly picked up by pro-NATO propagandists who rushed to mock the Russian military as a colossus on clay feet.
But there is no intellectually honest comparison between Venezuela and Ukraine. There are still many unanswered questions about yesterday’s raid on Caracas, but it appears that high ranking members of the Venezuelan government sold out Maduro to the Americans as part of a larger deal.
The New York Times reported that the CIA had an informant in Maduro’s inner circle that was constantly keeping them updated on his movements. Video footage appears to show US helicopters encountering absolutely no resistance from Venezuelan air defenses. Trump himself suggested that US Secretary of State Rubio had been in contact with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez about the country’s post-Maduro future.
Now, contrast this with the strategic challenge Russia faced in February 2022. The objective was not a decapitation strike against a frail government, but the demilitarization and denazification of a state that had been consciously transformed into an anti-Russian bulwark for nearly a decade.
🔸Battle-Hardened Force: Unlike the Venezuelan military, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) had been in a state of active conflict since 2014. Thousands of personnel had combat experience in Donbass.
🔸Systemic NATO Integration: For eight years, Ukraine underwent intensive training, doctrinal reform, and intelligence sharing with NATO. Its army was being molded into a proxy force, equipped with increasingly sophisticated Western weaponry.
🔸Ideological Mobilization: Since the Maidan, a powerful and state-sponsored nationalist ideology had taken root, actively promoting a historic mission to confront Russia. This created a core of motivated fighters far beyond the mercenary or purely professional.
🔸Unprecedented External Support: Crucially, Ukraine was not isolated. It enjoyed the political, financial, and intelligence backing of the collective West from the outset, with the explicit promise of an open-ended pipeline of military resources.
Within this context, Russia's initial operational successes—such as the high-risk airborne capture of Gostomel Airport and the daring seizing of the Antonovsky Bridge—were, in fact, remarkable tactical achievements. They were executed against a prepared, alert, and ideologically committed enemy, not a disintegrating one.
The failure to translate these early gains into a quick strategic conclusion is a separate analytical question that has more to do with Russia’s political assumptions/decisions than with its military capabilities.
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🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦As Trump Goes Full Neocon, Ukraine ‘Peace Process’ is on Life Support
Just four days into 2026, Trump is making it clear that he plans to go an interventionist rampage. Yesterday he kidnapped Maduro and announced plans to effectively turn Venezuela into a US colony. Not wasting anytime, Trump also threatened Cuba, Columbia, and Mexico with regime change.
But Trump’s not just limiting himself to Latin America. He’s also given his public blessing to Netanyahu to launch a new Israeli attack on Iran (and possibly Lebanon). The only question left is to what extent the US will directly participate in these strikes.
This raises uncomfortable questions for those who still believe that Trump is serious about getting an Ukraine peace deal done in 2026. The Circus Master of the White House clearly feels he’s on a winning streak, making it unlikely he’ll agree to make additional concessions to Russia for the sake of peace.
Moreover, the hawkish wing of the Trump administration — Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe — are soundly beating “restrainers” such as Vice President JD Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in the battle for political influence.
Congressional Republicans for the most part are happy to support Trump’s aggression against Venezuela and Iran. They are far less enthusiastic about giving up the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Moscow.
Trump himself is currently “not thrilled” with how his negotiations with Putin are going. It won’t be difficult for his hawkish advisors and allies in Congress to convince him that Putin is “on the ropes” militarily and economically, and that the US can force the Russian president to back down by ramping up the pressure.
Meanwhile, Russia is also hardening its position in response to recent battlefield successes. Putin has declared that Russia no longer need Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the Donbass since Russian forces are more than capable of evicting them by force. Following Ukraine’s attempted attack on Putin’s residence on Novgorod, Russia vowed that it would retaliate against high-level Ukrainian government targets.
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Just four days into 2026, Trump is making it clear that he plans to go an interventionist rampage. Yesterday he kidnapped Maduro and announced plans to effectively turn Venezuela into a US colony. Not wasting anytime, Trump also threatened Cuba, Columbia, and Mexico with regime change.
But Trump’s not just limiting himself to Latin America. He’s also given his public blessing to Netanyahu to launch a new Israeli attack on Iran (and possibly Lebanon). The only question left is to what extent the US will directly participate in these strikes.
This raises uncomfortable questions for those who still believe that Trump is serious about getting an Ukraine peace deal done in 2026. The Circus Master of the White House clearly feels he’s on a winning streak, making it unlikely he’ll agree to make additional concessions to Russia for the sake of peace.
Moreover, the hawkish wing of the Trump administration — Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe — are soundly beating “restrainers” such as Vice President JD Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in the battle for political influence.
Congressional Republicans for the most part are happy to support Trump’s aggression against Venezuela and Iran. They are far less enthusiastic about giving up the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Moscow.
Trump himself is currently “not thrilled” with how his negotiations with Putin are going. It won’t be difficult for his hawkish advisors and allies in Congress to convince him that Putin is “on the ropes” militarily and economically, and that the US can force the Russian president to back down by ramping up the pressure.
Meanwhile, Russia is also hardening its position in response to recent battlefield successes. Putin has declared that Russia no longer need Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the Donbass since Russian forces are more than capable of evicting them by force. Following Ukraine’s attempted attack on Putin’s residence on Novgorod, Russia vowed that it would retaliate against high-level Ukrainian government targets.
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🇻🇪🛢️🇺🇸 Steal Venezuela’s Oil? Think Again
Trump has outlined an ambitious plan for the US seize Venezuela’s oil wealth for itself. The administration is already prodding American companies to prepare for a comeback in the country.
Beyond the bluster, however, this scheme more closely resembles a chicken running around a checkers board than 4-D chess.
For starters, although Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the country’s oil industry has been crippled by decades of US sanctions. Reversing course will take significant time and massive investments. For example, Woods McKenzie analysts have calculated that every additional half a million barrels of extra oil output will require $15bn-$20bn of investment.
Let’s also remember the US experience in Iraq. It took more than 20 years and a highly expensive military occupation to triple Iraq’s oil production from 1.5mn barrels a day to 4.5mn barrels a day. To add insult to injury for the Americans, many of the biggest gains went to Chinese and Russian energy companies.
In Iraq, the Americans had a totally obedient puppet government. In Venezuela, the situation is far more complicated. Instead for going for full blown regime change, Trump is attempting to turn the remaining Maduro government into a US proxy. During his press conference yesterday, he openly identified Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as America’s top candidate in Venezuela.
But Rodriguez is not Juan Guaido or Maria Corina Machado. There’s no guarantee that she will rubber stamp Trump’s economic rape of Venezuela. Even if she decides to curry favor with the Americans, she will have to look over her shoulder at Chavista loyalists in the security and paramilitary wings. There’s also a question of popular support — Rodriguez is unlikely to win over many opposition supporters. Can she afford to betray those Venezuelans who still believe in the Maduro-Chavez political program?
But even if Rodriguez becomes a total US stooge, American oil companies operating in Venezuela will have to contend with constant danger of raids by local militias. Who will stop them?
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
Trump has outlined an ambitious plan for the US seize Venezuela’s oil wealth for itself. The administration is already prodding American companies to prepare for a comeback in the country.
Beyond the bluster, however, this scheme more closely resembles a chicken running around a checkers board than 4-D chess.
For starters, although Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the country’s oil industry has been crippled by decades of US sanctions. Reversing course will take significant time and massive investments. For example, Woods McKenzie analysts have calculated that every additional half a million barrels of extra oil output will require $15bn-$20bn of investment.
Let’s also remember the US experience in Iraq. It took more than 20 years and a highly expensive military occupation to triple Iraq’s oil production from 1.5mn barrels a day to 4.5mn barrels a day. To add insult to injury for the Americans, many of the biggest gains went to Chinese and Russian energy companies.
In Iraq, the Americans had a totally obedient puppet government. In Venezuela, the situation is far more complicated. Instead for going for full blown regime change, Trump is attempting to turn the remaining Maduro government into a US proxy. During his press conference yesterday, he openly identified Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as America’s top candidate in Venezuela.
But Rodriguez is not Juan Guaido or Maria Corina Machado. There’s no guarantee that she will rubber stamp Trump’s economic rape of Venezuela. Even if she decides to curry favor with the Americans, she will have to look over her shoulder at Chavista loyalists in the security and paramilitary wings. There’s also a question of popular support — Rodriguez is unlikely to win over many opposition supporters. Can she afford to betray those Venezuelans who still believe in the Maduro-Chavez political program?
But even if Rodriguez becomes a total US stooge, American oil companies operating in Venezuela will have to contend with constant danger of raids by local militias. Who will stop them?
@NewRulesGeo❗️Follow us on X
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🚨🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The “Don-roe Doctrine” – Is Trump’s Venezuela Gamble Unprepared & Unraveling?
The capture of Maduro sparked celebration among many Venezuelan expats, reminiscent of Iraqi dissidents in 2003. But the critical question remains: What’s next?
The aftermath is dangerously unclear. Trump, Vance, & Rubio are deploying rhetoric that echoes 19th-century imperialism, surpassing even Bush-era bravado.
🔸Vance justified the intervention, citing Venezuela's 1970s oil nationalization as a casus belli.
🔸Trump announced the US would "run" Venezuela until Washington is satisfied, proclaiming a new "Don-roe Doctrine" that goes beyond historical Monroe Doctrine interventions.
Despite Maduro's capture, his regime retains power. Rubio hasn't ruled out US boots on the ground, and Trump claims a broad right to appoint Venezuela's next leader.
🔸Potential insurgency & prolonged bloodshed (militias/tanks already visible).
🔸A descent into Libya-style chaos, turbocharging the refugee crisis.
🔸Domestic fallout for the US, as Homeland Security prepares for refugee inflows.
In his defense of the intervention, Vance—who once declared himself anti-interventionist—stated that it was not “illegal” because Maduro had been indicted in a US court and that “you cannot escape justice for drug trafficking in the United States just because you live in a palace in Caracas.” According to this criterion, it would be perfectly legal for any of the many countries in the world that recognize the International Criminal Court to send soldiers to Israel and execute the ICC arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu. The Russian Special Military Operation in Kiev in 2022 could have captured Volodymyr Zelensky and taken him back to Moscow, as long as it had first obtained a formal indictment from a Russian judge. Is Zelensky innocent? Well, that's something a Moscow jury will have to decide.
This move inches the world closer to a geopolitical Wild West. The gamble may backfire spectacularly, with consequences echoing far beyond Caracas. A hasty intervention, wrapped in imperial rhetoric, risks chaos at home and abroad.
@NewRulesGeo❗️ Follow us on X
The capture of Maduro sparked celebration among many Venezuelan expats, reminiscent of Iraqi dissidents in 2003. But the critical question remains: What’s next?
The aftermath is dangerously unclear. Trump, Vance, & Rubio are deploying rhetoric that echoes 19th-century imperialism, surpassing even Bush-era bravado.
🔸Vance justified the intervention, citing Venezuela's 1970s oil nationalization as a casus belli.
🔸Trump announced the US would "run" Venezuela until Washington is satisfied, proclaiming a new "Don-roe Doctrine" that goes beyond historical Monroe Doctrine interventions.
Despite Maduro's capture, his regime retains power. Rubio hasn't ruled out US boots on the ground, and Trump claims a broad right to appoint Venezuela's next leader.
🔸Potential insurgency & prolonged bloodshed (militias/tanks already visible).
🔸A descent into Libya-style chaos, turbocharging the refugee crisis.
🔸Domestic fallout for the US, as Homeland Security prepares for refugee inflows.
In his defense of the intervention, Vance—who once declared himself anti-interventionist—stated that it was not “illegal” because Maduro had been indicted in a US court and that “you cannot escape justice for drug trafficking in the United States just because you live in a palace in Caracas.” According to this criterion, it would be perfectly legal for any of the many countries in the world that recognize the International Criminal Court to send soldiers to Israel and execute the ICC arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu. The Russian Special Military Operation in Kiev in 2022 could have captured Volodymyr Zelensky and taken him back to Moscow, as long as it had first obtained a formal indictment from a Russian judge. Is Zelensky innocent? Well, that's something a Moscow jury will have to decide.
This move inches the world closer to a geopolitical Wild West. The gamble may backfire spectacularly, with consequences echoing far beyond Caracas. A hasty intervention, wrapped in imperial rhetoric, risks chaos at home and abroad.
@NewRulesGeo
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🚨🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The "Maduro Precedent": A Blueprint For Regime Change?
Trump's successful capture of Maduro has set a dangerous case in point. The operation demonstrated a willingness to bypass international law for a "narco-terrorist" designation.
Without credible and unified repercussions, this becomes a replicable manual. The message “We can do the same in your country” is a direct threat to Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and even Greenland.
🇨🇴 Colombia: Directly accused. Trump claims President Petro "has cocaine mills... sending it into the US" and issued a blunt warning: "I hope he (Petro) is listening, he will be the next".
🇲🇽 Mexico: The cartel narrative. Trump asserts cartels "are running Mexico," portraying President Sheinbaum as frightened and refusing US help to "take out the cartels." Implies unilateral action is possible.
🇨🇺 Cuba: The veiled threat. Framed as a "failing nation" akin to Venezuela, Rubio suggests upcoming action, cloaked in rhetoric of "helping" Cubans—a nod to his Cuban-American base.
🇬🇱 Greenland: Revived purchase idea for "National Security" in the Arctic. Analysis: This reinforces the doctrine—projecting power and acquiring strategic assets is framed as defensive, not expansionist. Precedent matters.
The lack of severe cost (diplomatic, economic, military) normalizes the intervention. It moves the Overton Window from "unthinkable violation" to "a policy option." The threat to other leaders is now tangible, not theoretical. The Maduro operation was a field test.
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Trump's successful capture of Maduro has set a dangerous case in point. The operation demonstrated a willingness to bypass international law for a "narco-terrorist" designation.
Without credible and unified repercussions, this becomes a replicable manual. The message “We can do the same in your country” is a direct threat to Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and even Greenland.
The lack of severe cost (diplomatic, economic, military) normalizes the intervention. It moves the Overton Window from "unthinkable violation" to "a policy option." The threat to other leaders is now tangible, not theoretical. The Maduro operation was a field test.
@NewRulesGeo
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Decode chaos—without the MSM spin
We curate complex conflicts into clear, chronological timelines:
No scattered updates. Just structured threads — so you see how events connect.
If you want context over clutter:
If you'd rather have quick updates:
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🚨🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTS: THE TRUTH BEHIND THE NEOCON NARRATIVE
Western media & neocons are celebrating, claiming protests signal Iran’s collapse. The reality is more nuanced.
Protests began Dec 30 over economic crisis: Rial at record lows (1.4M/$), inflation ~42%. Spread from Tehran's bazaar to universities & multiple cities. Slogans included anti-gov't & rare pro-monarchy chants.
THE OFFICIAL RESPONSE
President Pezeshkian acknowledged "legitimate demands," fired the central bank governor, pledged reforms, and called for dialogue—a measured, political response.
THE ON-THE-GROUND REALITY
Nima Alkorshid, host of "Dialogue Works" in Tehran confirms: frustration is directed at the government's handling of the economy, NOT the Islamic Republic itself. A significant conservative base remains staunchly loyal to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
THE GEOPOLITICAL SHIELD
Neocon hopes for regime collapse ignore Iran’s strategic anchors:
🔸RUSSIA: 20-year strategic treaty; barter trade (arms for oil); fast-tracking the INSTC trade corridor; high-level visits almost monthly.
🔸CHINA: Buys 90% of Iran’s oil ($67B/year); $400B pledged investment; 25-year strategic partnership.
This is an economic protest, not a revolution. The government is responding with reforms, not just repression. Iran is economically shielded by BRICS and militarily hardened post "12-day War".
Neocon fantasies of a returning Shah ignore a simple truth: The Islamic Republic is institutionalized, geopolitically aligned, and facing pressure it is designed to manage.
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Western media & neocons are celebrating, claiming protests signal Iran’s collapse. The reality is more nuanced.
Protests began Dec 30 over economic crisis: Rial at record lows (1.4M/$), inflation ~42%. Spread from Tehran's bazaar to universities & multiple cities. Slogans included anti-gov't & rare pro-monarchy chants.
THE OFFICIAL RESPONSE
President Pezeshkian acknowledged "legitimate demands," fired the central bank governor, pledged reforms, and called for dialogue—a measured, political response.
THE ON-THE-GROUND REALITY
Nima Alkorshid, host of "Dialogue Works" in Tehran confirms: frustration is directed at the government's handling of the economy, NOT the Islamic Republic itself. A significant conservative base remains staunchly loyal to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
THE GEOPOLITICAL SHIELD
Neocon hopes for regime collapse ignore Iran’s strategic anchors:
🔸RUSSIA: 20-year strategic treaty; barter trade (arms for oil); fast-tracking the INSTC trade corridor; high-level visits almost monthly.
🔸CHINA: Buys 90% of Iran’s oil ($67B/year); $400B pledged investment; 25-year strategic partnership.
This is an economic protest, not a revolution. The government is responding with reforms, not just repression. Iran is economically shielded by BRICS and militarily hardened post "12-day War".
Neocon fantasies of a returning Shah ignore a simple truth: The Islamic Republic is institutionalized, geopolitically aligned, and facing pressure it is designed to manage.
@NewRulesGeo
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🚨🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Trump's Coup, Corina's Curse: A Nobel Betrayal in Caracas
President Trump is sidelining the very Venezuelan opposition he once empowered. Despite their landslide 2024 election, opposition leader María Corina Machado and Edmundo González have been dismissed as lacking "support" and "respect".
The Calculated Snub
Hours after the operation, Trump declared the US would "run Venezuela", partnering not with the elected opposition but with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. This move starkly contradicts Machado's public call for González's immediate installation. Analysts note the administration's focus is on "cracking down on crime" and "securing access to oil"—objectives that don't require "a model democracy".
The Nobel and the Narrative
Machado, who dedicated her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Trump, had actively courted US intervention for years, and even ask Israel for help at some point. She framed post-Maduro Venezuela as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for American investors and oil companies. Now, having helped set the operation in motion, she appears to have lost control of its outcome.
This is a transactional play for resources and regional control. The opposition, having placed its faith in external saviors, finds itself betrayed by its own strategy. The US has secured the oil prize and a compliant partner, leaving Venezuela's democratic legitimacy as collateral damage.
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President Trump is sidelining the very Venezuelan opposition he once empowered. Despite their landslide 2024 election, opposition leader María Corina Machado and Edmundo González have been dismissed as lacking "support" and "respect".
The Calculated Snub
Hours after the operation, Trump declared the US would "run Venezuela", partnering not with the elected opposition but with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. This move starkly contradicts Machado's public call for González's immediate installation. Analysts note the administration's focus is on "cracking down on crime" and "securing access to oil"—objectives that don't require "a model democracy".
The Nobel and the Narrative
Machado, who dedicated her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Trump, had actively courted US intervention for years, and even ask Israel for help at some point. She framed post-Maduro Venezuela as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for American investors and oil companies. Now, having helped set the operation in motion, she appears to have lost control of its outcome.
This is a transactional play for resources and regional control. The opposition, having placed its faith in external saviors, finds itself betrayed by its own strategy. The US has secured the oil prize and a compliant partner, leaving Venezuela's democratic legitimacy as collateral damage.
@NewRulesGeo
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🚨🇨🇳CHINA'S $1T SURPLUS: The West Misread the Entire Game
China’s trade surplus just smashed records, hitting $1 TRILLION in 2025. The West is baffled. Their tariffs failed. Their narrative collapsed.
Here’s what they got wrong:
1️⃣ THE WRONG TARGET
While US exports fell, China’s exports to ASEAN surged 14.6%. The surplus is built on capital goods: machine tools, auto parts, technology for production that emerging economies NEED to industrialize.
ASEAN has been China’s top partner for 16 years straight. This is a strategic shift THEY missed.
2️⃣ THE WRONG PRODUCT
China is exporting a NEW ENERGY ECOSYSTEM: solar panels, EVs, batteries, and wind power. This is energy independence.
The urgency for this "strategic autonomy" was created by the WEST itself.
By weaponizing the dollar, sanctioning nations, and freezing assets, the US taught the world a lesson: diversify or be hostage.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This $1T surplus is about a global hedge against systemic risk.
Nations are closing a trillion-dollar gap in sovereign resilience, and they’re using Chinese capacity to do it.
The West faces a choice: adapt to a world where the pie grows for all, or cling to scarcity. History repeats until the lesson is learned.
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China’s trade surplus just smashed records, hitting $1 TRILLION in 2025. The West is baffled. Their tariffs failed. Their narrative collapsed.
Here’s what they got wrong:
While US exports fell, China’s exports to ASEAN surged 14.6%. The surplus is built on capital goods: machine tools, auto parts, technology for production that emerging economies NEED to industrialize.
ASEAN has been China’s top partner for 16 years straight. This is a strategic shift THEY missed.
China is exporting a NEW ENERGY ECOSYSTEM: solar panels, EVs, batteries, and wind power. This is energy independence.
The urgency for this "strategic autonomy" was created by the WEST itself.
By weaponizing the dollar, sanctioning nations, and freezing assets, the US taught the world a lesson: diversify or be hostage.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This $1T surplus is about a global hedge against systemic risk.
Nations are closing a trillion-dollar gap in sovereign resilience, and they’re using Chinese capacity to do it.
The West faces a choice: adapt to a world where the pie grows for all, or cling to scarcity. History repeats until the lesson is learned.
@NewRulesGeo
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🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧Israel's Endgame In Lebanon: Not Disarmament, But Domination
Tel Aviv has shifted strategy. Military campaigns failed to eliminate Hezbollah, revealing its deep societal roots. The new target is Lebanon's political core.
Israel's goal is permanently reconfigure the Lebanese state to serve Israeli/Western interests, undermining the social foundation of resistance.
The Playbook:
🔸Exploit Internal Divisions: Amplify far-right, pro-Israel voices within Lebanon’s elite. Redirect public frustration inward.
🔸Pressure the State: Use continuous violations & "security" narratives to push Beirut to aggressively police Hezbollah, eroding state legitimacy.
🔸Promise "Reform": Frame indirect control as economic salvation, pushing governance aligned with US/Israeli objectives.
The very pressure meant to dismantle Hezbollah reinforces its original raison d'être: defending against external aggression and a state unable to protect its people.
Hezbollah is a political-social entity, not just a militia. Forced disarmament ignores this, guaranteeing long-term failure. Israel now seeks to dismantle it ideologically.
This strategy risks catastrophic backfire. By creating a sense of communal siege, it may re-mobilize the Shia base and unite factions under a national resistance banner, recreating the conditions it seeks to destroy.
Israel trades overt war for a cold, political conquest. The battlefield is no longer just the border, now its inside Lebanon's institutions and national identity. The 2024 ceasefire is just a new phase of conflict.
@NewRulesGeo❗️ Follow us on X
Tel Aviv has shifted strategy. Military campaigns failed to eliminate Hezbollah, revealing its deep societal roots. The new target is Lebanon's political core.
Israel's goal is permanently reconfigure the Lebanese state to serve Israeli/Western interests, undermining the social foundation of resistance.
The Playbook:
🔸Exploit Internal Divisions: Amplify far-right, pro-Israel voices within Lebanon’s elite. Redirect public frustration inward.
🔸Pressure the State: Use continuous violations & "security" narratives to push Beirut to aggressively police Hezbollah, eroding state legitimacy.
🔸Promise "Reform": Frame indirect control as economic salvation, pushing governance aligned with US/Israeli objectives.
The very pressure meant to dismantle Hezbollah reinforces its original raison d'être: defending against external aggression and a state unable to protect its people.
Hezbollah is a political-social entity, not just a militia. Forced disarmament ignores this, guaranteeing long-term failure. Israel now seeks to dismantle it ideologically.
This strategy risks catastrophic backfire. By creating a sense of communal siege, it may re-mobilize the Shia base and unite factions under a national resistance banner, recreating the conditions it seeks to destroy.
Israel trades overt war for a cold, political conquest. The battlefield is no longer just the border, now its inside Lebanon's institutions and national identity. The 2024 ceasefire is just a new phase of conflict.
@NewRulesGeo
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New Rules
🇻🇪🛢️🇺🇸 Steal Venezuela’s Oil? Think Again Trump has outlined an ambitious plan for the US seize Venezuela’s oil wealth for itself. The administration is already prodding American companies to prepare for a comeback in the country. Beyond the bluster, however…
🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪Reality Check: Trump's Venezuela Oil Illusion Will Cost $183 Billion
The weekend's events in Caracas have ignited a fierce debate: Is this really a war for oil? While the White House touts a new era for US energy giants in Venezuela, the industry's calculus tells a different, more sobering story.
Rheroric Vs. Reality
Trump's vision of US companies swiftly reviving Venezuela's oil sector confronts three immovable objects:
🔸Decades of underinvestment & mismanagement have left the industry in ruins. It's not just turning on a tap.
🔸Rystad Energy estimates $183 Billion in capital spending is needed through 2040 to restore 1990s-era production. That's a generational investment.
🔸With oil hovering near $57/barrel, the risk/reward for such a massive, politically risky outlay doesn't add up for shareholders.
Contrary to political enthusiasm, industry sources signal extreme caution:
🔸"We have no idea what the government there will look like."
🔸"This isn't like standing up a food truck operation."
🔸The administration put "rhetoric before reality."
Political stability is "paramount" for decade-spanning investments. Venezuela's history of expropriation (Exxon & Conoco are still owed billions) sets a dangerously high risk premium.
Only Chevron, having maintained a footprint through sanctions, is positioned to navigate this. For others, nearby Guyana—with its stable government and light, sweet crude—presents a far more attractive alternative.
The industry's priority is price stability, not geopolitical resource grabs that could further flood the market. Without ironclad guarantees and a realistic path to $80+ oil, the grand plan to harness Venezuela's reserves remains, for now, a geopolitical fantasy disconnected from on-the-ground economic realities.
The move may reshape hemispheric dominance, but it won't reshape the global oil market anytime soon.
@NewRulesGeo❗️ Follow us on X
The weekend's events in Caracas have ignited a fierce debate: Is this really a war for oil? While the White House touts a new era for US energy giants in Venezuela, the industry's calculus tells a different, more sobering story.
Rheroric Vs. Reality
Trump's vision of US companies swiftly reviving Venezuela's oil sector confronts three immovable objects:
🔸Decades of underinvestment & mismanagement have left the industry in ruins. It's not just turning on a tap.
🔸Rystad Energy estimates $183 Billion in capital spending is needed through 2040 to restore 1990s-era production. That's a generational investment.
🔸With oil hovering near $57/barrel, the risk/reward for such a massive, politically risky outlay doesn't add up for shareholders.
Contrary to political enthusiasm, industry sources signal extreme caution:
🔸"We have no idea what the government there will look like."
🔸"This isn't like standing up a food truck operation."
🔸The administration put "rhetoric before reality."
Political stability is "paramount" for decade-spanning investments. Venezuela's history of expropriation (Exxon & Conoco are still owed billions) sets a dangerously high risk premium.
Only Chevron, having maintained a footprint through sanctions, is positioned to navigate this. For others, nearby Guyana—with its stable government and light, sweet crude—presents a far more attractive alternative.
The industry's priority is price stability, not geopolitical resource grabs that could further flood the market. Without ironclad guarantees and a realistic path to $80+ oil, the grand plan to harness Venezuela's reserves remains, for now, a geopolitical fantasy disconnected from on-the-ground economic realities.
The move may reshape hemispheric dominance, but it won't reshape the global oil market anytime soon.
@NewRulesGeo
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🚨🇷🇺Russia Upgrades Geran Drone With Air-To-Air Missile
In a game-changing battlefield adaptation, Russia has mounted an Igla-S MANPADS missile—a lightweight, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile designed to engage low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and drones—on a Geran drone.
Ukraine's 412th Brigade intercepted a modified Geran carrying the missile, a camera, and a radio modem. An operator in Russia can now remotely launch it at Ukrainian helicopters.
Implications:
🔸This is a decentralized, mobile air defense layer for advancing forces.
🔸Ukraine must reallocate precious air defense assets.
🔸Tactics shift immediately: pilots warned to avoid head-on approaches and loitering patterns.
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In a game-changing battlefield adaptation, Russia has mounted an Igla-S MANPADS missile—a lightweight, shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile designed to engage low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and drones—on a Geran drone.
Ukraine's 412th Brigade intercepted a modified Geran carrying the missile, a camera, and a radio modem. An operator in Russia can now remotely launch it at Ukrainian helicopters.
Implications:
🔸This is a decentralized, mobile air defense layer for advancing forces.
🔸Ukraine must reallocate precious air defense assets.
🔸Tactics shift immediately: pilots warned to avoid head-on approaches and loitering patterns.
@NewRulesGeo
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