New Rules
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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world.

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธCan the US Catch China on Rare Earths?

China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and 85โ€“90% of refining, creating a global hegemony on this business.

The US has one active rare earth mine โ€” Mountain Pass in California โ€” but for years, even that material was sent to China for final processing.

๐Ÿ”ธWhy Rare Earth Minerals Matter

๐ŸŸ Neodymium powers EV motors and wind turbine generators

๐ŸŸ Dysprosium adds heat resistance to magnets in precision-guided munitions and fighter jets

๐ŸŸ Lanthanum is used in night vision goggles and camera lenses

๐ŸŸ Yttrium is critical for laser systems and radar

๐ŸŸ Cerium refines crude oil and polishes military-grade optics

Without these, modern weapons stop working and green energy stalls.

Rare earths aren't actually rare. Seventeen elements, including neodymium (for EV magnets) and dysprosium (for precision-guided munitions). The hard part isn't digging them up.

It's separating them from radioactive byproducts like thorium and uranium. China spent thirty years mastering that messy, toxic process while the West outsourced and forgot how.

In 2022, the US imported more than 95% of its rare earth compounds and metals over 11,000 metric tons and mostly was from China.

But here's the reason why:

๐ŸŸ A new refinery takes 5โ€“10 years and costs $500 million to $1 billion

๐ŸŸ Environmental permitting alone can take 3โ€“7 years

๐ŸŸ China's production costs are 30โ€“50% lower

๐ŸŸ The US currently produces less than 15% of the rare earth

๐ŸŸ China produced 210,000 tons of rare earths in 2023, while the US produced 43,000 tons

Beijing controls 80% of global refining and has shown it will cut export quotas or raise prices whenever it wants leverage, most recently in 2021 when neodymium prices jumped 80% in six months.

For US military planners, the question isn't? "can we catch up?" It's "do we need to." For weapons systems, missiles, night vision and radar to secure supply chain matters more than price. For commercial EVs and wind turbines? That's a different calculation.

China is the indisputable leader in the rare earth industry, so how long will it take the US to realise itโ€™s better to concede than to tilt at windmills?

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทIran targeted US bases using Chinese spy satellite โ€” report

Iran has demonstrated impressive foresight by secretly acquiring a Chinese reconnaissance satellite, significantly enhancing its ability to protect regional interests during recent tensions.

According to leaked Iranian documents, the IRGC Aerospace Force obtained the advanced TEE-01B satellite in late 2024 via a Chinese in-orbit delivery arrangement, Financial Times report.

This roughly $37 million investment granted Tehran high-resolution imaging capabilities and reliable access through global ground stations.

๐Ÿ”ธPrecision Support During March Conflict

In March, Iranian forces effectively utilized the satellite to monitor key locations ahead of and following defensive strikes against U.S. bases in the Middle East.

The TEE-01B captured detailed imagery of sites, including:

๐ŸŸ Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabiaโ€”where U.S. assets were impacted.

๐ŸŸ As well as positions in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Djibouti, and Oman.

This allowed for accurate target assessment and operational success verification.

Major Technological Upgrade

With approximately 0.5-meter resolution, the satellite far surpasses Iranโ€™s domestic Noor systems (around 5 meters). It enables clear identification of aircraft, vehicles, and infrastructure changes, providing a vital tool for national security.

๐Ÿ”ธClever Dispersion Strategy


By leveraging Chinese infrastructure, Iran reduces the vulnerability of its own ground stations to distant attacks, creating a more resilient operational network.

Combined with existing intelligence assets, the system strengthens Iranโ€™s overall defensive posture in a complex regional environment.

๐Ÿ”ธGrowing Partnerships

This development reflects positive progress in Iranโ€™s technical cooperation with China, complementing ties with Russia. It underscores Tehranโ€™s determination to build independent capabilities amid external pressures.

China has firmly rejected related accusations, emphasizing peaceful intentions in its space activities.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณBillion-Dollar Data Centers May Soon Be Obsolete?

A tiny quantum system just matched a classical AI with 10,000 nodes in weather prediction โ€” at less than 1% of the cost.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Shocking Result

Chinese researchers built a device using only nine quantum spins (tiny magnetic properties inside atoms). It performed as well as or better than big classical reservoir networks in multi-step weather forecasting.

The work was published on March 25 in Physical Review Letters by teams from the University of Science and Technology of China and the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

๐Ÿ”ธWhy It Matters

Traditional AI weather centers cost US$100 million or more. This quantum setup delivers similar results for a tiny fraction of that price. It raises a big question: Are the worldโ€™s trillion-dollar data centers becoming obsolete?

๐Ÿ”ธHow the Quantum System Works

The team used a smart trick called reservoir computing.

They took weather data (called time-series data) and fed it into 9 tiny quantum spins that were interacting with each other.

Normally, scientists hate โ€œnoiseโ€ โ€” for example, when the spins slowly relax and lose their energy. But here, the researchers did something clever: they turned that noise into a useful feature. It gave the system a natural short-term memory, which is exactly what you need to predict future weather.

Best part? They didnโ€™t need complicated quantum circuits. Everything stayed simple, used very little energy, and was much cheaper. It also didnโ€™t need super-cold freezers (called dilution refrigerators) that most quantum computers require.

๐Ÿ”ธStrong Performance

In standard tests the quantum system made 10 to 100 times fewer mistakes than classical AI (thatโ€™s what โ€œone to two orders of magnitudeโ€ means).

It also did very well on real weather prediction tasks.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences proudly said: This is the first time a quantum machine clearly beat normal neural networks on real-world time-series problems.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Money Contrast

The US is investing heavily: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spent nearly $100 million upgrading its Rhea supercomputer. The TAME Act adds almost $188 million over five years. Private firm Tomorrow.io raised over $175 million. Tech giants Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia continue pouring billions into massive clusters.

For comparison, a similar nine-qubit processor from Rigetti Computing costs around $900,000.

๐Ÿ”ธWhat This Could Mean

This early result echoes how smaller AI models like DeepSeek challenged huge language model systems. It points toward โ€œpractical quantum advantageโ€ on real tasks. The quantum race is shifting from counting qubits to solving actual problems with todayโ€™s imperfect machines.

The system is still small, but it shows a path to low-energy quantum AI for everyday use. If the trend holds, todayโ€™s giant AI infrastructure plans may soon look unnecessarily expensive.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡นRussia Could Crush the Baltics in 90 Days โ€” Without Sending a Single Soldier

A new war game shows Russia forcing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to surrender in just 90 days using only drones and missiles.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Strategic Scenario

In this 2027 simulation by Lithuaniaโ€™s Baltic Defense Initiative, Russia exploits two openings: France, led by Marine Le Pen, pulls out of NATOโ€™s nuclear umbrella, while the US stays bogged down in Iran, its long-range weapons running low.

Russia then unleashes a 60-day barrage โ€” hypersonic missiles, ballistic strikes, cruise missiles, and over 170,000 attack drones. Every bridge, power plant, hospital, and water facility is destroyed. Lithuania (2.8 million people) is left without electricity, heat, or clean water as winter hits.

On day 90, Moscow issues a ultimatum: accept Russian occupation or watch Riga and Tallinn suffer the same fate. The Baltic states capitulate. No Russian boots cross the border.

๐Ÿ”ธWhy Such Scenario Could Be Real

The war game used verified Russian weapon capabilities, actual production rates, and current political trends. It isnโ€™t predicting an attack โ€” itโ€™s a deliberate stress test to expose vulnerabilities:

๐ŸŸ Centralized governments

๐ŸŸ Empty air-defense stocks

๐ŸŸ Fragile single-point energy systems

๐ŸŸ Over-reliance on NATO

The goal: fix these weaknesses before any real crisis hits.

๐Ÿ”ธHistorical Context

The Baltic states were once part of the Soviet sphere, integrated in 1940 and independent only after 1991. Situated on Russiaโ€™s western flank, they remain a sensitive zone where Moscow naturally seeks to secure its land and buffer zones against NATO expansion.

๐Ÿ”ธStrategic Implications

Ultimately, this war game shows a clear change in how modern conflicts can unfold. Russia can now use long-range missiles and drones to break a countryโ€™s will without sending troops across the border. It highlights how timing, precision strikes, and the right political moment give Moscow a strong advantage over smaller neighbors that depend heavily on distant allies.

For the Baltics and NATO, the lesson is simple: old defense plans may no longer be enough. In an age of standoff weapons and hybrid tactics, this kind of scenario could move from paper exercise to actual strategy faster than many expect.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธSeventy years ago, Britain made this exact mistake. Now it's America's turn

Seventy years ago, Britain and France launched Operation Musketeer to seize the Suez Canal after Egypt's Nasser nationalized it. The canal carried two-thirds of Europe's oil. Their paratroopers won every battle โ€” and lost everything else. Under crushing US financial pressure, they withdrew in humiliation. Within a decade, the British Empire was effectively gone.

Today, the US and Israel have launched strikes on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz โ€” carrying 20% of the world's oil โ€” has been effectively blockaded. The mission looks decisive. History says otherwise.

๐Ÿ”ธThe parallels are almost absurd:

๐ŸŸ  Both crises were triggered by oil sovereignty, not military threat

๐ŸŸ  Both involved a Western power acting unilaterally over a vital maritime chokepoint

๐ŸŸ  Both were tactical successes and strategic catastrophes

๐ŸŸ  Both exposed an empire's decline rather than its strength

๐Ÿ”ธThe Geopolitical Isolation

In 1956, Britain and France were abandoned by their closest ally โ€” the United States. Today, the US is the one isolated.

Russia & China vetoed a UN resolution to reopen Hormuz.
Iran has now authorized Russian, Chinese, and Indian vessels to use the strait.

The alignment between Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow is no longer a theory โ€” it's a fact.

Britain had Suez. America has Hormuz. History gave both the same ending. Suez killed Pax Britannica.

Is Hormuz killing Pax Americana?

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Diamond Coating: A Big Upgrade for China's AI Industry

Chinese researchers have developed a new diamond copper material. It can improve cooling efficiency in AI data centers by up to 80 percent.

The Ningbo Institute of Industrial Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) said the material has already been used in an AI computing node in Zhengzhou, China.

The global computing industry is facing a "thermal wall." This means overheating. New generation chips pack more power into smaller spaces, making it much harder to keep them cool.

As AI models grow larger and more complex, traditional cooling methods like air fans and standard liquid cooling are no longer enough.

Improvements:

๐Ÿ”ธ The new diamond copper material has a thermal conductivity above 1,000 watts per metre kelvin (W/mK).

๐Ÿ”ธ Pure copper conducts heat at only around 400 W/mK. The new material is 2.5 times better.

๐Ÿ”ธ Cooling efficiency improvement up to 80 percent compared to current methods.

๐Ÿ”ธ Production cost is about 30 percent lower than imported high end thermal materials.

๐Ÿ”ธ Expected lifespan of the material will be over 10 years under continuous use in data centers.

China still depends heavily on imported high end heat dissipation materials. These come from countries like Japan, the United States, and Germany. These imports are expensive. Their cooling performance is also limited.

Geopolitical tensions are rising. Export controls are getting tighter. That is why having an independent thermal management materials industry is now very important for China's computing power and core competitiveness.

This diamond copper breakthrough helps China reduce foreign dependency. It also helps China keep growing its AI capabilities without being slowed down by overheating or supply chain problems.

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๐ŸŸก Geopolitics Without the Chaos
Decode chaosโ€”without the MSM spin

We curate complex conflicts into clear, chronological timelines:

โžก๏ธ Middle East Mayhem
โžก๏ธ US-China Showdown
โžก๏ธ Ukraine-Russia War
โžก๏ธ EU Rifts
โžก๏ธ Major Global Events
โžก๏ธ Culture War

No scattered updates. Just structured threads โ€” so you see how events connect.

๐Ÿค  PLUS: Dank memes (for sanity).

If you want context over clutter:
๐Ÿ‘‰ Exclusive Channel

If you'd rather have quick updates:
๐Ÿ‘‰ @MyLordBebo
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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ NATO'S NIGHTMARE: RUSSIA UNVEILS SWARM DRONE KILLER SYSTEM

Rostec has successfully tested a breakthrough swarm technology that lets ONE operator control up to 10 strike drones in perfect sync.

Built on the Supercam platform with upgraded data links, these UAVs now automatically exchange target intel in real time and use neural nets to ID threats and assign roles.

๐Ÿ”ธ Single operator commands 10 loitering munitions that hunt as an intelligent pack โ€” massive leap in efficiency and manpower savings.

๐Ÿ”ธ Drones barrage over the area in search mode; the first to detect a target instantly shares coordinates with every unit in the swarm.

๐Ÿ”ธ Neural network auto-identifies threats, sets attack sequence, and designates one drone for objective control โ€” operator only confirms the kill before the full group strikes.

๐Ÿ”ธ Swarm specifically engineered to overwhelm enemy PVO and deliver concentrated fire on the most complex, hardened targets with guaranteed destruction.

๐Ÿ”ธ Direct counter to recent expert warnings that Russia was falling behind in UAV development โ€” now fast-tracking full swarm integration into its recon-strike network.

What can NATO do to counter this?

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณChina's Underwater Data Centers: Huge Win in the AI Power Race

Deep under the South China Sea, China just took a major step toward AI supremacy.

๐Ÿ”ธFrom Navy Tech to Commercial Compute

China has launched its first commercial underwater data center off Hainan Island. Sitting 35 meters below the surface, the Hailanxin-built facility connects to shore via submarine cable and already serves AI and big data clients.

Hainan Telecom and Atlas are online now. Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo will join later this year. Each massive 1,300-ton pod uses smart seawater cooling to achieve an impressive PUE of 1.07 โ€” far more efficient than most land-based centers.

๐Ÿ”ธTech Roots That Matter

Hailanxin wasnโ€™t starting from scratch. The company once supplied intelligent systems to the Chinese Navy, with deep expertise in marine tech and seabed operations. In 2019, it acquired Canadian deep-sea firm OceanWorks and teamed up with China National Offshore Oil Corporation to build the pressure vessels.

This blend of naval know-how and commercial ambition turned Microsoftโ€™s earlier underwater experiment into a working, scalable reality โ€” built for speed and cost advantage in the AI race.

๐Ÿ”ธWhy This Gives China a Real Edge

By placing high-power servers directly in the ocean, China gains natural cooling without expensive infrastructure. The result: cheaper, denser, and more reliable compute capacity exactly when global AI demand is exploding.

With plans for 100 pods delivering 50โ€“100 megawatts, Beijing is positioning itself to export low-cost AI processing power worldwide. This underwater strategy strengthens Chinaโ€™s overall tech infrastructure and accelerates its push for leadership in artificial intelligence.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธHOW CHINA PLANS TO DEFEAT U.S. DIVISIONS

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is not preparing for a "fair fight." Their goal is for U.S. divisions to lose before the first direct fire contact is ever made, according to a paper published by the United States Army Transformation and Training Command (T2COM).

๐Ÿ”ธForget Everything You Know About War

The PLA has built its entire warfighting model around one idea: destroy the system, not just the soldiers.

They call it Systems Confrontation โ€” and the target isn't the frontline troops. It's the U.S. military's ability to see, think, and decide.

๐Ÿ”ธThe War That Begins 30 Days Early

By the time U.S. forces receive orders to engage, China has already been fighting for a month โ€” invisibly.

๐ŸŸ Cyber & Electronic Warfare: Satellite communications and GPS disrupted

๐ŸŸ Reconnaissance-Strike Complexes: Every headquarters, fuel depot, and ammunition point already has a missile assigned to it

๐ŸŸ Information Operations: Doubt planted in the minds of commanders; trust in orders quietly erodes

๐Ÿ”ธThe Drone Tsunami Is Not a Metaphor

We're talking about 100,000+ one-way attack drones available to a single group army. Swarms of CH-901 loitering munitions (a type of one-way kamikaze drone) operate in sync โ€” they don't just strike. They flood air defense systems with simultaneous threats, burning through interceptor magazines and opening corridors for the precision missiles that follow.

๐Ÿ”ธElephant Eaten Piece by Piece

The PLA's defense operates as a layered, elastic trap โ€” not a fixed line. U.S. brigades are lured into complex obstacle belts, cut off by scatterable mines, and methodically dismantled in isolated pockets.

In this war, the side with the fastest sensor-to-shooter loop (the time between detecting a target and striking it) and the most resilient network wins. The primary target is the commander's ability to see and decide.

Which means the most critical training investment right now isn't firepower โ€” it's emissions discipline (minimizing electronic signals that reveal your position), counter-reconnaissance, and decision-making under degraded conditions.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Trumpโ€™s Miscalculation: How the Iran Blockade Could Trigger Chinaโ€™s Strategic Retaliation

President Donald Trump ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after recent US-Iranian peace talks in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement.

But this was not merely about pressuring Tehran. It was also a strategic miscalculation by the Americans. Roughly 90% of Iranian oil exports flow east, to China. By blocking Iran, Washington accidentally squeezed Beijing's supply chain.

Key Details

๐Ÿ”ธ The blockade targets Iranian oil, but China is the customer.

๐Ÿ”ธ Beijing gets nearly all of Tehran's exported crude.

๐Ÿ”ธ Cut Iran's exports, and you cut China's supply.

Which means the Trump administration appears to have walked into this confrontation without fully appreciating what it was triggering.

Then came a warning from Beijing. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun issued a careful but clear statement. China's ships are transiting the Strait with Iran's permission, because Iran controls those waters. "We expect others not to meddle in our affairs."

So far, Beijing has avoided direct involvement in the conflict. But the blockade changes the calculation. If the US Navy stops Chinese vessels, Beijing gets exactly what it needs, a pretext to push back against its great-power rival.

And here is the real leverage. China doesn't need to fire a single shot to hurt the US. Its real power is economic, not military. Beijing's most effective weapon is rare earths; the critical minerals used in everything from guided missiles to stealth jets.

Washingtonc has started funding its own rare earth processing plants to break free from China. But that will take time, maybe years. In the meantime, China already began restricting exports last year during Trump's trade war. A full shutdown would not look like aggression.

However, the means available to apply that pressure are now clearly limited by Beijingโ€™s role in the situation. Washington appears to have crossed a threshold without fully recognizing it. The key issue now is whether it can regain a consistent and effective strategy before Beijing decides itโ€™s no longer in its interest to let it happen.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธIran Preserved Its Military Capacity Despite U.S. Strikes - Intel

Recent reporting suggests Iran came under heavy pressure, but it preserved enough military capability to limit the overall impact of U.S. strikes

๐Ÿ”ธThe Official Narrative vs. Reality

Trump declared Iran has been "TOTALLY OBLITERATED, Militarily, and otherwise." Defense Secretary Hegseth called Operation Epic Fury a success that left Iran "combat ineffective for years to come."

But Western intelligence โ€” including European, Gulf, and even the Defense Intelligence Agency itself โ€” is saying the opposite.

The DIA confirmed to Congress that Iran "retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs" despite degradation. That's not obliteration. That's a wounded but functional military.
How Iran Limited the Impact

Iran dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and regularly moved them between sites. It still retains solid long-range missile reserves and thousands of drones, per European and Gulf officials. Some Western officials say two to three more weeks of strikes would be needed to fully degrade Iran's capabilities โ€” others say even that may be optimistic.

๐Ÿ”ธThe Mosaic Strategy

After Israel's 2025 war, Iran decentralized command across provincial lines, giving local commanders autonomous authority. When Khamenei and SNSC Secretary Larijani were killed, pre-planned succession protocols prevented a full collapse.

Pre-war planning appears to have helped Tehran preserve parts of its missile and drone arsenal, maintain response capacity, and prevent leadership losses from triggering full operational collapse, according to Western intelligence assessments cited by Bloomberg.

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๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ’€DEBT TRAP: HOW U.S. IS CAUGHT IN NIGHTMARE

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns America's biggest threat isn't Iran or China. It's the $39 trillion US debt market.

The US is drifting toward a moment when investors stop buying Treasury bonds. Neither foreign nor domestic buyers show up. Just the Federal Reserve forced to step in as the last resort.

Key Details

๐Ÿ”ธ The US needs an emergency "break-glass" plan.

๐Ÿ”ธ The demand for US debt could suddenly collapse.

๐Ÿ”ธ The result would be "vicious" with "dangerous" effects.

A future debt crisis would be worse than 2008. Back then, the government had room to borrow and fix things. But in a Treasury crisis, the government is the problem. If no one buys US debt, the Fed becomes the only buyer. Prices drop & interest rates jump. The government pays more to borrow. That makes the deficit bigger.

US deficits have averaged 6% of GDP for three years, a level seen only during recessions or wars. The CBO says debt-to-GDP will hit 108% by 2030. The IMF warns Treasuries are losing their special status. Foreign ownership has dropped to 30%, down from 50% two decades ago.

Interest payments on US debt are projected to reach $1.2 trillion annually by 2028. That is more than the defense budget. A 1% rise in rates adds $300 billion to borrowing costs.

Congress avoids hard choices until a crisis hits. Fixing the problem means raising revenues and changing healthcare and Social Security. None of that is happening.

The US is steadily losing room to absorb policy mistakes. The gap between market confidence and fiscal reality is narrowing. If that gap closes abruptly, demand for Treasuries could weaken sharply, leaving the Fed as the primary buyer.

At that point, the system would operate under visible strain rather than stability. A position shaped over time, not suddenly entered. US needs a contingency plan but none appears to be in place.

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