Forwarded from Inessa S ️️
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😁 When Wagner PMC stormed Rostov, they calmly lined up at the supermarket.
💢 Watching intelligent Russian telegram channels talk about the insurrection is like watching a lot of otherwise smart intel, war, and policy wonks I know talk about Bin Laden and 9/11 - his motivations, location of his cave, nature of his organization, etc.
I nod attentively and politely while knowing in the back of my head that it's a hypothesis built on a notion based on a trope and built into an illusion.
XF
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I nod attentively and politely while knowing in the back of my head that it's a hypothesis built on a notion based on a trope and built into an illusion.
XF
Subscribe @NewResistance
💢 Russia's fake coup seems to have knocked Ukraine's fake counteroffensive off the radar.
Help me find info on the "progress" of the offensive here ⬇️⬇️
XF
Help me find info on the "progress" of the offensive here ⬇️⬇️
XF
Forwarded from Private Media Company (PMC) Tchaikovsky
After the events of the last two days, a huge number of people are wondering, “What was that all about?”.
I'm kind of one of those people, to be honest. Only I have one advantage - I initially turned off my emotions, observed the situation impartially and from the outside as possible, and deliberately slept cynically for several of the most intense hours.
By the way, I recommend it in every possible way - in any incomprehensible situation, get a good night's sleep, and then no longer receive unverified stuff from clout-chasers, but collect it cooled and filtered, without fakes and tantrums.
Sorry, but over the years I've gotten used to the fact that the Internet is a territory of zero trust. And it’s definitely better to be a healthy paranoid and not believe anything without triple-checking than to be overly naive and believe everything, including fakes and hoaxes.
So I immediately began to divide the information into what we know relatively accurately and what is "reported" (presumably, allegedly).
Moreover, in some cases, it was deliberately false information that was very eloquent there - for example, the fake about “shelling Wagner from the rear” was made so poorly that its fake nature was not in doubt at all.
There was so much stuff on the downed aircraft (and so little evidence) that it is not at all clear whether one helicopter was shot down (and whether it was shot down at all), or eight. Either one pilot died, or 15.
As Captain Alekhin said, "There are no instructions."
Either the IL-18 was shot down, or the IL-22 (non-existent, because the prototype did not go into production), or the IL-22M11. If the "Fighterbomber" is a former pilot, as he claims (and Kirill Fedorov is another "expert in aviation"), then why are they not able to accurately determine the type of aircraft? Maybe because it didn't exist?
If Il-22M11, then this is a staff aircraft, super-high-altitude, usually generals are on board. There were no reports of dead generals. And how to shoot it down from MANPADS if it is super high? And, most importantly, WHY?!
The Ka-52 is also very difficult to shoot down, especially from MANPADS (well, the S-300 complex cannot be deployed near a moving column!). Moreover, Poddubny, who was already caught on fakes, reported about the downed Ka-52
Again, why shoot down EW helicopters? And, on the other hand, why send EW helicopters there? Especially if they can be shot down there? It looks like they're trying to screw us over with something.
That is, all this is extremely doubtful information.
But when I tried to ask for proofs, some immediately got hysterical, as if I were “justifying Prigozhin”. By the way, I'm the last person who would do this. Unlike the hysterics who screamed “Shoigu resign!” for six months! and "Give shells to Wagner!" (Which I've been smacking all this time.)
I repeat: I DON'T know if something was shot down (and how many), if someone died, but pictures of a pile of scrap metal in a field with the words "This is the wreckage of the Death Star, I swear by my mother" did not convince me.
For the wording “they report on social media”, you must immediately say “get out of the profession, moron!” (C) to such a reporter.
My sentences “Let's wait for official information” habitually cause tantrums.
Again, the widely disseminated information that Dyumin negotiated with Prigozhin was officially denied, saying that this was not the responsibility of the governor of the Tula region.
That is, this whole story is densely covered with fakes and hoaxes, including from the side of the Ukrainian CIPSO actively involved in the process (so it is not surprising if some fakes contradicted others).
What do we know for sure?
A column of "Wagnerites" numbering up to a thousand people (according to the information I have, I can not vouch for 100% accuracy) advanced to Russia. That is, not all personnel (tens of thousands), but only a very small part, took part in the "mutiny".
I'm kind of one of those people, to be honest. Only I have one advantage - I initially turned off my emotions, observed the situation impartially and from the outside as possible, and deliberately slept cynically for several of the most intense hours.
By the way, I recommend it in every possible way - in any incomprehensible situation, get a good night's sleep, and then no longer receive unverified stuff from clout-chasers, but collect it cooled and filtered, without fakes and tantrums.
Sorry, but over the years I've gotten used to the fact that the Internet is a territory of zero trust. And it’s definitely better to be a healthy paranoid and not believe anything without triple-checking than to be overly naive and believe everything, including fakes and hoaxes.
So I immediately began to divide the information into what we know relatively accurately and what is "reported" (presumably, allegedly).
Moreover, in some cases, it was deliberately false information that was very eloquent there - for example, the fake about “shelling Wagner from the rear” was made so poorly that its fake nature was not in doubt at all.
There was so much stuff on the downed aircraft (and so little evidence) that it is not at all clear whether one helicopter was shot down (and whether it was shot down at all), or eight. Either one pilot died, or 15.
As Captain Alekhin said, "There are no instructions."
Either the IL-18 was shot down, or the IL-22 (non-existent, because the prototype did not go into production), or the IL-22M11. If the "Fighterbomber" is a former pilot, as he claims (and Kirill Fedorov is another "expert in aviation"), then why are they not able to accurately determine the type of aircraft? Maybe because it didn't exist?
If Il-22M11, then this is a staff aircraft, super-high-altitude, usually generals are on board. There were no reports of dead generals. And how to shoot it down from MANPADS if it is super high? And, most importantly, WHY?!
The Ka-52 is also very difficult to shoot down, especially from MANPADS (well, the S-300 complex cannot be deployed near a moving column!). Moreover, Poddubny, who was already caught on fakes, reported about the downed Ka-52
Again, why shoot down EW helicopters? And, on the other hand, why send EW helicopters there? Especially if they can be shot down there? It looks like they're trying to screw us over with something.
That is, all this is extremely doubtful information.
But when I tried to ask for proofs, some immediately got hysterical, as if I were “justifying Prigozhin”. By the way, I'm the last person who would do this. Unlike the hysterics who screamed “Shoigu resign!” for six months! and "Give shells to Wagner!" (Which I've been smacking all this time.)
I repeat: I DON'T know if something was shot down (and how many), if someone died, but pictures of a pile of scrap metal in a field with the words "This is the wreckage of the Death Star, I swear by my mother" did not convince me.
For the wording “they report on social media”, you must immediately say “get out of the profession, moron!” (C) to such a reporter.
My sentences “Let's wait for official information” habitually cause tantrums.
Again, the widely disseminated information that Dyumin negotiated with Prigozhin was officially denied, saying that this was not the responsibility of the governor of the Tula region.
That is, this whole story is densely covered with fakes and hoaxes, including from the side of the Ukrainian CIPSO actively involved in the process (so it is not surprising if some fakes contradicted others).
What do we know for sure?
A column of "Wagnerites" numbering up to a thousand people (according to the information I have, I can not vouch for 100% accuracy) advanced to Russia. That is, not all personnel (tens of thousands), but only a very small part, took part in the "mutiny".
Forwarded from Private Media Company (PMC) Tchaikovsky
Part of this contingent remained in Rostov. For what? For what? Show off in the city center? Get stuck in the circus gate? What is the purpose of their stay there? Did they create the Civil-military administration? Did they take control of the local administration? Taken the governor as a hostage? What were they even doing there? Formulate to me the purposes and tasks of this contingent. For "I can not understand" (c)
The rest moved towards Moscow. For what? For what? Capture the city? Take the Kremlin by storm? So with the forces of a thousand fighters, neither one nor the other is unrealistic. There, in fact, the entire personnel of the Wagner would not have been enough.
What was the calculation? That crowds of peasants will joinPrigozhin's Pugachev's army along the way? No, it’s not 1700s...
What is the purpose and meaning of this whole campaign?
Again, if this is really a mutiny, then why was the column not shot on the march? Why didn't they use physical barriers blocking the road? Why didn’t they try to stop them in advance, and why did they create the appearance of fortifications already in the suburbs of Moscow? Who would let a crowd of armed men into a densely populated city?
So many questions, so few answers. Sometimes I envy stupid people, everything is always immediately clear to them.
No matter how much someone doesn’t like it, the fact remains: as soon as there were reports of the start of a military offensive in four directions, and officials of the Kiev regime began to report a “massive counteroffensive”, Prigozhin backed down.
I am aware that "after" is not the same as "due to".
I am not saying that these two phenomena are 100% connected, but simply fixing: The counteroffensive has begun. Prigozhin backed down.
And then specially trained people should figure out what it was.
We will be able to understand what it was only much later. By the consequences.
The version tree was actually quite simple from the beginning
1. This is a scam for khokhols and their Western masters. And then it’s clear why Prigozhin was not touched all this time (as British experts said, “for this we would have been court-martialed long ago”). Moreover, if this is misinformation, then this time it should have been really large-scale, because khokhols (and their Western masters) have already bought into Prigozhin's nonsense more than once and might otherwise not believe it.
2. Prigozhin really got mad (there are several possible reasons, from resentment to financial problems).
3. Hybrid: Prigozhin really went crazy, but he was led and used in the dark by our special services to promote disinformation and at the same time reveal the fifth column inside the country. Difficult, but not impossible (this has already happened in history, including the latest). And, by the way, if the losses are confirmed, then this version becomes the main one.
For options 1 and 2 do not really contradict each other. Sometimes the traveler can be used as bait.
Like in Harry Harrison's "Bill, Hero of the Galaxy" (like the second novel in the series), where of all the participants in the conspiracy, only the leader was not an intelligence agent.
Never forget that both Putin and his inner circle are mostly SVR and FSB officers, specialists in such combinations.
What to watch:
- MoD updates in the next few days. If the Ukronazis bought in, then their losses in the coming days will be significantly higher than average.
- The actions of law enforcement agencies. If Prigozhin has gone, then he personally can and will be allowed to leave for Belarus (unsuccessful rebels have been fleeing there since the time of Kurbsky), but his assets will be arrested and confiscated, the media holding will be closed and dissolved, and so on. Moreover, this will be done actively, publicly and exemplarily.
The rest moved towards Moscow. For what? For what? Capture the city? Take the Kremlin by storm? So with the forces of a thousand fighters, neither one nor the other is unrealistic. There, in fact, the entire personnel of the Wagner would not have been enough.
What was the calculation? That crowds of peasants will join
What is the purpose and meaning of this whole campaign?
Again, if this is really a mutiny, then why was the column not shot on the march? Why didn't they use physical barriers blocking the road? Why didn’t they try to stop them in advance, and why did they create the appearance of fortifications already in the suburbs of Moscow? Who would let a crowd of armed men into a densely populated city?
So many questions, so few answers. Sometimes I envy stupid people, everything is always immediately clear to them.
No matter how much someone doesn’t like it, the fact remains: as soon as there were reports of the start of a military offensive in four directions, and officials of the Kiev regime began to report a “massive counteroffensive”, Prigozhin backed down.
I am aware that "after" is not the same as "due to".
I am not saying that these two phenomena are 100% connected, but simply fixing: The counteroffensive has begun. Prigozhin backed down.
And then specially trained people should figure out what it was.
We will be able to understand what it was only much later. By the consequences.
The version tree was actually quite simple from the beginning
1. This is a scam for khokhols and their Western masters. And then it’s clear why Prigozhin was not touched all this time (as British experts said, “for this we would have been court-martialed long ago”). Moreover, if this is misinformation, then this time it should have been really large-scale, because khokhols (and their Western masters) have already bought into Prigozhin's nonsense more than once and might otherwise not believe it.
2. Prigozhin really got mad (there are several possible reasons, from resentment to financial problems).
3. Hybrid: Prigozhin really went crazy, but he was led and used in the dark by our special services to promote disinformation and at the same time reveal the fifth column inside the country. Difficult, but not impossible (this has already happened in history, including the latest). And, by the way, if the losses are confirmed, then this version becomes the main one.
For options 1 and 2 do not really contradict each other. Sometimes the traveler can be used as bait.
Like in Harry Harrison's "Bill, Hero of the Galaxy" (like the second novel in the series), where of all the participants in the conspiracy, only the leader was not an intelligence agent.
Never forget that both Putin and his inner circle are mostly SVR and FSB officers, specialists in such combinations.
What to watch:
- MoD updates in the next few days. If the Ukronazis bought in, then their losses in the coming days will be significantly higher than average.
- The actions of law enforcement agencies. If Prigozhin has gone, then he personally can and will be allowed to leave for Belarus (unsuccessful rebels have been fleeing there since the time of Kurbsky), but his assets will be arrested and confiscated, the media holding will be closed and dissolved, and so on. Moreover, this will be done actively, publicly and exemplarily.
Forwarded from Private Media Company (PMC) Tchaikovsky
I'm not omniscient, and I don't eavesdrop under Putin's table. So I don't know how it really is. And I build my assumptions in the face of a lack of information, an abundance of misinformation and the presence of a bunch of irrational behavior among many participants in the process.
All I have is logic and common sense. As they say “I don’t know yet, we’ll live and see” (I’m leaning towards the third version, but I’m waiting for additional confirmation).
However, “Never jump to conclusions” is what I have been saying for years.
But! Quite accurately, the whole "mutiny" resulted in zilch. Khokhlo-media are already howling in frustration and pain.
And we clearly saw who cheered for the so-called “justice march” (we won’t point fingers, but it was Rybar-Zvinchuk!) and wrote about the “imminent fall of Putin’s Russia” (hello to the fool Gubarev). Nearly all fell asleep.
So from that point of view, it's a perfect moment of truth.
And personally, I am waiting for very serious organizational conclusions on the results (and this is clearly not about the General Staff).
All I have is logic and common sense. As they say “I don’t know yet, we’ll live and see” (I’m leaning towards the third version, but I’m waiting for additional confirmation).
However, “Never jump to conclusions” is what I have been saying for years.
But! Quite accurately, the whole "mutiny" resulted in zilch. Khokhlo-media are already howling in frustration and pain.
And we clearly saw who cheered for the so-called “justice march” (we won’t point fingers, but it was Rybar-Zvinchuk!) and wrote about the “imminent fall of Putin’s Russia” (hello to the fool Gubarev). Nearly all fell asleep.
So from that point of view, it's a perfect moment of truth.
And personally, I am waiting for very serious organizational conclusions on the results (and this is clearly not about the General Staff).
💢 Ukraine will hold exercises "in case of a possible explosion of the Zaporozhye NPP"
Interior Minister Igor Klimenko added that the exercises will include the closure of roads and the organization of sanitary checkpoints where radiation will be checked.
———-
Numerous experts believe this is an opportunity to stage a false flag operation to entrap the Russians and the so-called international community.
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Interior Minister Igor Klimenko added that the exercises will include the closure of roads and the organization of sanitary checkpoints where radiation will be checked.
———-
Numerous experts believe this is an opportunity to stage a false flag operation to entrap the Russians and the so-called international community.
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💢Can you guys post some maps showing Ukraine's counteroffensive progress, as clear as possible, before vs after? Thanks, would help a lot.
I can't find any really useful detailing of Ukraine's progress for four or five days now.
XF
⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
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I can't find any really useful detailing of Ukraine's progress for four or five days now.
XF
⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
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💢 XF - Russia's large-scale drill and psychological operation yesterday was targeted at the western media, and was mostly successful. It may have saved the world. Also, "Prigozhin" does not exist.
Move on from the counteroffensive without escalation: It has given the western information war a much needed distraction, and allowed Russia to conduct additional internal political and military movement operations while giving the western media something to cheer about.
The desirable distraction was from the Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' which the press needed to cover intensely once it was announced, but then had no way of walking back.
A general 'drying up' of relevant op-eds and columns on the counteroffensive was observed, and the shift to talks of 'provocations' and 'sanctions' after about June 18th.
The temperature in the west was rising, as the news cycle was itself becoming a highly caustic catalyst towards more commitments to some kind of dangerous kinetic action from the west - ZPP, dirty bombs, additional sanctions, sending in jets or longer range missiles, and more.
Russia's operation of June 23rd-24th can be considered a relatively successful display of planned and coordinated activity also in the realm of opinion, narrative, and even reality shaping over a series of hours and relating the most sensitive of possible subjects - insurrections and coups.
Yesterday's drill and psy-op was not an 'attack' on the Russian population itself - this is always a possibility to consider and one that is measured against both the objective interests of the public and the outcomes of the operation.
Thus the policy of creating confusion over the nature of the events was both a functional test of the capacity of the Russian state to do so, and even more so a bi-product of several other objectives which did not involve the perceptions of the Russian public at large.
There were other objectives to the operation, but the information aspect in the western narrative is a major consideration.
Regardless of how supportable various official narratives about the events of those days wind up being over time - often official claims do not age well when there are deceptions involved - the old adage that news only has to be true on the day that it publishes still rings.
Retractions are always possible, maybe a reframing, or maybe people just forget.
There were other objectives which are evident, and much more could be written about those perhaps of equal or greater importance on the whole.
But the effect on the western media's information war, it gave them a graceful exit which appeared as a victory.
Keep in mind that within the various unrealistic fantasy scenarios for defeating Russia, even though militarily Russia is too solid, if the combination of battlefield uncertainties, stresses economically and financially, resentment and plotting among or between the oligarchy, the intelligence services, the military; this could lead to a 'coup', a split in the military, even degradation into warlordism.
So in truth there was some part of the Ukrainian 'plan' after Crimea is being successfully retaken by Ukraine, that Putin faces his own Ides of March.
The concept, simulacra, and spectacle of 'Prigozhin' - a person who you know nothing about but are convinced is 'emotional' - fit the practical realization of these fantasies in every way. But Prigozhin, besides the man that really lives and bears this name, is nothing more than a series of narratives built upon myths built upon assumptions and projections. There is no Prigozhin.
Western media needed this story, what an off-ramp from the failed counteroffensive which otherwise requires a massive escalation or provocation with horrifying potential outcomes, and in that small way, Russia just saved the world with this operation.
XF
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Move on from the counteroffensive without escalation: It has given the western information war a much needed distraction, and allowed Russia to conduct additional internal political and military movement operations while giving the western media something to cheer about.
The desirable distraction was from the Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' which the press needed to cover intensely once it was announced, but then had no way of walking back.
A general 'drying up' of relevant op-eds and columns on the counteroffensive was observed, and the shift to talks of 'provocations' and 'sanctions' after about June 18th.
The temperature in the west was rising, as the news cycle was itself becoming a highly caustic catalyst towards more commitments to some kind of dangerous kinetic action from the west - ZPP, dirty bombs, additional sanctions, sending in jets or longer range missiles, and more.
Russia's operation of June 23rd-24th can be considered a relatively successful display of planned and coordinated activity also in the realm of opinion, narrative, and even reality shaping over a series of hours and relating the most sensitive of possible subjects - insurrections and coups.
Yesterday's drill and psy-op was not an 'attack' on the Russian population itself - this is always a possibility to consider and one that is measured against both the objective interests of the public and the outcomes of the operation.
Thus the policy of creating confusion over the nature of the events was both a functional test of the capacity of the Russian state to do so, and even more so a bi-product of several other objectives which did not involve the perceptions of the Russian public at large.
There were other objectives to the operation, but the information aspect in the western narrative is a major consideration.
Regardless of how supportable various official narratives about the events of those days wind up being over time - often official claims do not age well when there are deceptions involved - the old adage that news only has to be true on the day that it publishes still rings.
Retractions are always possible, maybe a reframing, or maybe people just forget.
There were other objectives which are evident, and much more could be written about those perhaps of equal or greater importance on the whole.
But the effect on the western media's information war, it gave them a graceful exit which appeared as a victory.
Keep in mind that within the various unrealistic fantasy scenarios for defeating Russia, even though militarily Russia is too solid, if the combination of battlefield uncertainties, stresses economically and financially, resentment and plotting among or between the oligarchy, the intelligence services, the military; this could lead to a 'coup', a split in the military, even degradation into warlordism.
So in truth there was some part of the Ukrainian 'plan' after Crimea is being successfully retaken by Ukraine, that Putin faces his own Ides of March.
The concept, simulacra, and spectacle of 'Prigozhin' - a person who you know nothing about but are convinced is 'emotional' - fit the practical realization of these fantasies in every way. But Prigozhin, besides the man that really lives and bears this name, is nothing more than a series of narratives built upon myths built upon assumptions and projections. There is no Prigozhin.
Western media needed this story, what an off-ramp from the failed counteroffensive which otherwise requires a massive escalation or provocation with horrifying potential outcomes, and in that small way, Russia just saved the world with this operation.
XF
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Media is too big
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💢Soldiers of the 58th Special Forces Brigade @nm_dnr hunt for Ukrainian soldiers in their positions
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💢 Prigozhin - Exile on Elba or Brer Rabbit into the Briar Patch?
YOU DECIDE 😂👍⬇️
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YOU DECIDE 😂👍⬇️
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💢 Russian Coup: On the Ground in Moscow "Rogue General" w/ Political Analyst Tim Kirby
Kirby explains the unrealities of the 'coup' - from yesterday.
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Kirby explains the unrealities of the 'coup' - from yesterday.
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Rumble
Russian Coup: On the Ground in Moscow "Rogue General" w/ Political Analyst Tim Kirby
Protect your IRA and other assets, contact info@MilesFranklin.com - Tell them "Sarah Sent Me" and get the best service and prices in the country. Political Analyst and investigative reporter, Tim Kirb
Xoaquin FIores - New Resistance
💢 👀 🎥 😘
💢Wagner could lead attack on Kiev from Belarus, something smells off - British general warns - Sky News
"Ukraine's leaders must guard against a possible attack led by Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at Kiev from Belarus, General Lord Richard Dannatt tells Trevor Phillips on Sky News.
"The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern," said the former British Army chief of general staff.
If he has "kept an effective fighting force around him then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kiev", where the war began, he said.
Lord Dannatt said it "is quite possible" that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kiev again.
"The aftershocks of yesterday will reverberate for quite some time."
Nonetheless, there were no immediate "winners" from "yesterday's fiasco", he said.
"Putin is definitely much diminished. The Russian military... is clearly in some disarray," said Lord Dannatt."
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"Ukraine's leaders must guard against a possible attack led by Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at Kiev from Belarus, General Lord Richard Dannatt tells Trevor Phillips on Sky News.
"The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern," said the former British Army chief of general staff.
If he has "kept an effective fighting force around him then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kiev", where the war began, he said.
Lord Dannatt said it "is quite possible" that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kiev again.
"The aftershocks of yesterday will reverberate for quite some time."
Nonetheless, there were no immediate "winners" from "yesterday's fiasco", he said.
"Putin is definitely much diminished. The Russian military... is clearly in some disarray," said Lord Dannatt."
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💢 Russia strikes and destroys Ukrainian munitions and base in the Kupyansk area
The strike with high-precision weapons completely destroyed the fortified area's stocks of munitions.
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The strike with high-precision weapons completely destroyed the fortified area's stocks of munitions.
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💢 Serbian President Vucic noted the decisive role of Putin and Lukashenko's big role in stopping yesterday's rebellion.
"Vladimir Putin is the only person who could stop the development of events according to a negative scenario in connection with the Wagner rebellion, and he confidently did it.
The head of the Belarusian state, Alexander Lukashenko, made a serious contribution to resolving the situation, but it was Putin who finished everything yesterday.
Everything ended thanks to the strong reaction of President Putin, very decisive and clear" - Vucic
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"Vladimir Putin is the only person who could stop the development of events according to a negative scenario in connection with the Wagner rebellion, and he confidently did it.
The head of the Belarusian state, Alexander Lukashenko, made a serious contribution to resolving the situation, but it was Putin who finished everything yesterday.
Everything ended thanks to the strong reaction of President Putin, very decisive and clear" - Vucic
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💢 Remember I said on the XF LIVESTREAM in the early hours yesterday, how just like Miracle on 34th Street the judge would throw out the charges against Prigozhin. Or the state withdrew the charges. After a happy speech, just like I said. 😂👍
XF
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💢 "The mobilization is going well"
Army recruiters in Odessa caused an accident in pursuit of conscripts
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Army recruiters in Odessa caused an accident in pursuit of conscripts
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