BIG BREAKING NEWS:
Dr.R.M
The chemistry & mathematics behind Annamalai’s/BJP’s expected super performance in Tamil Nadu -
Scanning the voting data of past 25 years on #TamilNadu , it should come as a surprise that the two dominant parties DMK & AIADMK have had only 20-22% each of committed voters.
So over 55% voters were clearly floating voters!
Dr.R.M
Now post Jayalalitha ADMK is set to lose almost the whole of their committed votes. So let’s say they will lose 15%.
Which takes up the level of floating voters to 70%!
Dr.R.M
Now there were many folks who were completely anti-AIADMK, were not keen on DMK too but since they didn’t have a choice ended up voting for DMK just to defeat AIADMK. With the advent of #Annamalai hitting the political landscape of TN as well as Modi’s/BJP’s strong push for south, those voters have now found an alternative in Anna/BJP. That would be roughly 20% of DMK votes.
Which now raises the floating voter base to a whopping 75%!
Given the massive success of #EnMannEnMakkal yatra, Annamalai’s growing popularity, he being seen as a true inheritor of Jayalalitha’s legacy and Modi’s strong push for south especially TN, has resulted in a ‘twin wave’….Modi & Annamalai wave!
Dr.R.M
Now with 75% floating voters and a twin wave, BJP stands a very good chance of drawing substantial percentage of these voters. Conservatively let’s say 30-35% (in Feb opinion polls were giving over 20% votes to BJP and signs were that it was growing sharply)
DMK has never gone above 33% vote share. With huge anti incumbency, they will be much lower, may go down to their core voters only, around 15-20%.
Dr.R.M.
AIADMK’s best was 44% but it was only once, an outlier. Otherwise its best has been around the same as DMK. With Jayalalitha gone & party withering, it is set to fall to around 10% or lower vote share.
So BJP/NDA has the highest probability to emerge as the biggest party and alliance!
Would love Dravidian parties to challenge me on this objective analysis with one of their own and not just indulge in plain vacuous rhetoric!
#LokSabhaElections2024
Dr.R.M
The chemistry & mathematics behind Annamalai’s/BJP’s expected super performance in Tamil Nadu -
Scanning the voting data of past 25 years on #TamilNadu , it should come as a surprise that the two dominant parties DMK & AIADMK have had only 20-22% each of committed voters.
So over 55% voters were clearly floating voters!
Dr.R.M
Now post Jayalalitha ADMK is set to lose almost the whole of their committed votes. So let’s say they will lose 15%.
Which takes up the level of floating voters to 70%!
Dr.R.M
Now there were many folks who were completely anti-AIADMK, were not keen on DMK too but since they didn’t have a choice ended up voting for DMK just to defeat AIADMK. With the advent of #Annamalai hitting the political landscape of TN as well as Modi’s/BJP’s strong push for south, those voters have now found an alternative in Anna/BJP. That would be roughly 20% of DMK votes.
Which now raises the floating voter base to a whopping 75%!
Given the massive success of #EnMannEnMakkal yatra, Annamalai’s growing popularity, he being seen as a true inheritor of Jayalalitha’s legacy and Modi’s strong push for south especially TN, has resulted in a ‘twin wave’….Modi & Annamalai wave!
Dr.R.M
Now with 75% floating voters and a twin wave, BJP stands a very good chance of drawing substantial percentage of these voters. Conservatively let’s say 30-35% (in Feb opinion polls were giving over 20% votes to BJP and signs were that it was growing sharply)
DMK has never gone above 33% vote share. With huge anti incumbency, they will be much lower, may go down to their core voters only, around 15-20%.
Dr.R.M.
AIADMK’s best was 44% but it was only once, an outlier. Otherwise its best has been around the same as DMK. With Jayalalitha gone & party withering, it is set to fall to around 10% or lower vote share.
So BJP/NDA has the highest probability to emerge as the biggest party and alliance!
Would love Dravidian parties to challenge me on this objective analysis with one of their own and not just indulge in plain vacuous rhetoric!
#LokSabhaElections2024
61.45% approximate voter turnout was recorded today till 8 pm in Phase 3 of #LokSabhaElections2024 , as per the Election Commission of India.