The Mwango Capital Pod - Episode 140

In this episode hosted by Julians Amboko, we host Dr. Samuel Tiriongo, Director of Research & Policy at Kenya Bankers Association, to unpack the revised risk-based credit pricing model and what it means for banks, borrowers, and the economy.

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/27-12-2025-the-revised-risk-based-credit-pricing?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The Mwango Capital Pod - Episode 141

In this episode hosted by Joe Mwaniki, we discuss managing KRA audits, taxpayers’ rights, and handling assessments.

Guests:
— Terry Muli, International Tax Expert
— Ann Magondu, Tax Senior Manager - Deloitte

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/managing-kra-audits?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The Mwango Capital Pod - Episode 142

In this episode hosted by Terryanne Chebet, we discuss building financial and business resilience in 2026 and the role of general insurance.

Guests:
— James Kamau - Group Head of Distribution, AAR Insurance
— Kiriinya Kithinji - Head of Strategy, WYLDE International

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/02-01-2026-aar-building-resilience?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The NSE in 2025

🟢Best performer was Uchumi Supermarket +505.9% to KES 1.03

🔴Worst performer was Umeme -53.3% to KES 7.82

Starting this January, KRA will validate income and expenses declared in tax returns using TIMS/eTIMS invoices, withholding tax data, and Customs import records.

All 2025 income year filings on iTax must be backed by valid electronic tax invoices correctly transmitted with the buyer’s PIN.

This Week’s Corporate Events (Jan 5–9, 2026)

— Wednesday, 7 Jan: Re-opened FXD1/2019/020 & FXD1/2022/025 auction date

— Thursday, 8 Jan: Deadline for submitting comments on government divestiture in Safaricom

— Friday, 9 Jan: Sasini PLC FY financial results

The Mwango Capital Pod - Episode 143

In this episode hosted by Ramah Nyang, we are joined by George Kuria, CEO of SanlamAllianz Kenya to explore the transition to the new brand and what customers should expect going forward.

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/05-01-2026-bonga-na-ceo-sanlamallianz-kenya?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Stream this and other episodes on your favourite platform below:

🎧 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-mwango-capital-podcast/id1583367792

🎧 Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/b906c499-76c5-4c4e-b2cc-e9ce1a0c3446/the-mwango-capital-podcast

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/76j57zrUjRQ459WvMykgMw

🎧 YouTube: https://youtube.com/@mwangocapital

Stanbic Bank Kenya's PMI for December 2025 reached 53.7, indicating robust growth in private sector activity and the strongest employment growth in over six years.

The CBK has accepted KES 60.6B in bids for the reopened 20-year and 25-year Treasury Bonds, achieving a performance rate of 119.2%.

The Mwango Capital Podcast - Episode 144

In this episode hosted by Ramah Nyang, we host Economists from the World Bank to unpack the latest Kenya Economic Update.

Guests:
—Ryan Kuo - FCI Economist, World Bank
—Jorge Tudela Pye - Country Economist, World Bank

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/07-01-2025-unpacking-kenyas-economic-update?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Stream this and other episodes on your favourite platform below:

🎧 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-mwango-capital-podcast/id1583367792

🎧 Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/b906c499-76c5-4c4e-b2cc-e9ce1a0c3446/the-mwango-capital-podcast

🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/76j57zrUjRQ459WvMykgMw

🎧 YouTube: https://youtube.com/@mwangocapital

LAPTRUST Imara I-REIT has issued a profit warning, forecasting earnings for the period ending 31st December 2025 to be at least 25% lower than the previous period, mainly due to a decline in gross rental revenue.

NSE Week 02 (2 – 8 January 2026) 📈

— Top Gainer: Car and General +12.3% to KES 57.25
— Top Loser: Standard Group –10.9% to KES 5.86
— NASI: ▲2.4% to 191.9
— Market Cap: KES 3.03T (+2.4%)
— Bond Turnover: KES 42.2B (+82.3%)
— Equity Turnover: KES 3.5B (+227%)
— Net Inflow: KES 68.1M

Kenya's forex reserves fell by USD 10M this week to USD 12.384B, equivalent to 5.3 months of import cover.

Sasini PLC reported a net profit of KES 177.3M for FY25, reversing a loss of KES 562.9M in FY24. Revenue surged by 22.4% to KES 8.44B.

This week's calendar of Events (12th-16th Jan)

— Today, Jan 12: I&M Bank interim dividend payment (KES 1.50).
— Wed, Jan 14: Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) fuel price review.
— Thu, Jan 15: Uganda general elections.

In our newsletter this week, we cover;

✍️ 2025's Key Themes
💰 KNBS Q3 2025 GDP and BOP Highlights
⚖️ Court Hearing on Diageo’s EABL Sale Set

Link: https://open.substack.com/pub/mwangocapital/p/12-01-2026-2025-in-review?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

On Safaricom valuation:

—National Treasury retained KCB Investment Bank as transaction adviser to conduct an independent valuation
—Market valuation relied on enterprise value and trading multiples. EV EBITDA analysis implied a range of KES 22.3 to KES 33.5 per share, with an average of about KES 26.2. PE multiples implied even lower values.
—Discounted cash flow implied KES 18.5 per share, while the discounted dividend model implied about KES 23.6 per share.
—Treasury ended up anchoring the pricing on the six-month VWAP from 2 June to 2 December 2025, which stood at about KES 27.5 per share.
—Comparable telco valuations across Africa and the Middle East showed an EV/EBITDA multiple ceiling of about 8.3x, which Treasury said the transaction also achieved.
—Treasury also reviewed 12-month target prices from various banks: Barclays KES 31 from November 2025, Investec KES 30 from July 2025, Absa KES 30.1 from October 2025, with NCBA and FIDA in a similar range, and HSBC KES 28 from November 2024.

Almost a month after Diageo agreed to sell its 65% stake in EABL to Asahi, EABL has announced that CFO & Executive Director Risper Ohaga will step down effective 30 June 2026 to "pursue other interests outside EABL."

The upcoming EABL H1 FY 25/26 results due later this month will therefore be the last set reported under her tenure.