The equity craze was never crazier.
Global Equities have seen the highest ever inflows in 2025 than ever before!
This is data for ETFs.
This also shows how passive investing is taking off in a big way across the world.
Ofcourse, a lion's share of these inflows have come into US based ETFs.
And everyone knows that the US Markets have really gone super-creative while forming new kind of ETFs (read: multi leverage)
How will this story end?
Like every other one before it!
(Pic source: BofA)
Global Equities have seen the highest ever inflows in 2025 than ever before!
This is data for ETFs.
This also shows how passive investing is taking off in a big way across the world.
Ofcourse, a lion's share of these inflows have come into US based ETFs.
And everyone knows that the US Markets have really gone super-creative while forming new kind of ETFs (read: multi leverage)
How will this story end?
Like every other one before it!
(Pic source: BofA)
The AI boom is very different from what anyone could have imagined till now!
The attached picture gives a different perspective on the AI boom - measuring it against all previous technological shifts with % of GDP as the main metric.
The closest that the AI boom comes to is the advent of Railroads in the 1800s.
Even Cars - probably one of the biggest industries worldwide does not measure up!
This is not a new chapter in technology;
It is a completely new book!
(Pic Source: ARK)
The attached picture gives a different perspective on the AI boom - measuring it against all previous technological shifts with % of GDP as the main metric.
The closest that the AI boom comes to is the advent of Railroads in the 1800s.
Even Cars - probably one of the biggest industries worldwide does not measure up!
This is not a new chapter in technology;
It is a completely new book!
(Pic Source: ARK)
INR has not just been depreciating against the USD;
It has been doing so with all major currencies.
And in most of the cases, by much more.
Main reason for this: the USD itself has been falling.
The INR depreciation is in spite of record RBI intervention in the Forex markets.
This is primarily due to the lack of capital inflows.
FDI & FII investments will need to pick up in a big way for the INR to find some support and reverse.
(Pic source: IndiaDataHub)
It has been doing so with all major currencies.
And in most of the cases, by much more.
Main reason for this: the USD itself has been falling.
The INR depreciation is in spite of record RBI intervention in the Forex markets.
This is primarily due to the lack of capital inflows.
FDI & FII investments will need to pick up in a big way for the INR to find some support and reverse.
(Pic source: IndiaDataHub)
This is THE MOST IMPORTANT chart right now!
THE DOLLAR INDEX.
This measures the USD against a bunch of major currencies.
A decline in this indicates an overall weakness for the USD.
And it looks like it is breaking down in a big way.
The way it is breaking down, it looks like there could be a quick downside.
This breakdown signals an end of the Dollar supremacy which had been rising since the year 2011.
The following could be the possible impact of an overall weaker Dollar:
* Rate cuts in the US
* Debt servicing burden coming down a bit (for the US)
* an overall 'Risk-on' sentiment across the world
* Asset prices going up
* Very positive for Emerging Markets (increasing confidence in EMs, increase in FII inflows into EM
Let's see how this plays out.
THE DOLLAR INDEX.
This measures the USD against a bunch of major currencies.
A decline in this indicates an overall weakness for the USD.
And it looks like it is breaking down in a big way.
The way it is breaking down, it looks like there could be a quick downside.
This breakdown signals an end of the Dollar supremacy which had been rising since the year 2011.
The following could be the possible impact of an overall weaker Dollar:
* Rate cuts in the US
* Debt servicing burden coming down a bit (for the US)
* an overall 'Risk-on' sentiment across the world
* Asset prices going up
* Very positive for Emerging Markets (increasing confidence in EMs, increase in FII inflows into EM
Let's see how this plays out.
FUTURE RETURNS WILL COME FROM EMERGING MARKETS!!
Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETF) have broken out after an 18 year consolidation.
(Now read this along with my earlier post on DXY breaking down)
The 18 years consolidation reminds me of the old market adage: "Bigger the base, higher in space"
What investors have seen in the last 2-3 years in terms of returns from EM is just an indication of what is in store.
India has not shown any returns in the last 16 odd months.
However, it is just a matter of time before Indian markets also catch up.
I expect Indian Markets to lead league tables in terms of returns amongst EMs very soon.
Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETF) have broken out after an 18 year consolidation.
(Now read this along with my earlier post on DXY breaking down)
The 18 years consolidation reminds me of the old market adage: "Bigger the base, higher in space"
What investors have seen in the last 2-3 years in terms of returns from EM is just an indication of what is in store.
India has not shown any returns in the last 16 odd months.
However, it is just a matter of time before Indian markets also catch up.
I expect Indian Markets to lead league tables in terms of returns amongst EMs very soon.
If you thought that gaming was a kiddie business, think again!
2025 saw huge deals happening in the gaming space in the US.
Value of announced deals is ~$161B!
However this is a trend which would find it difficult to take off in India for now, given the current regulatory environment in gaming.
(Pic source: Drake Star)
2025 saw huge deals happening in the gaming space in the US.
Value of announced deals is ~$161B!
However this is a trend which would find it difficult to take off in India for now, given the current regulatory environment in gaming.
(Pic source: Drake Star)
Extremely volatile equity markets.
Commodity markets are at some other extremes of volatility.
Will post about the commodity super volatility since last night whenever I find the time.
Definitely not for the faint hearted.
Expecting all the more volatility on Sunday - budget day.
Best thing to do:
refrain from tracking markets and looking at your portfolio for the next few days.
Commodity markets are at some other extremes of volatility.
Will post about the commodity super volatility since last night whenever I find the time.
Definitely not for the faint hearted.
Expecting all the more volatility on Sunday - budget day.
Best thing to do:
refrain from tracking markets and looking at your portfolio for the next few days.
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE:
Our Quant MarketMap kept flashing strong, positive reversal signs last week and the market has followed through this week, with a good reversal. Having said that, the market is not yet out of the woods.
This has been a good week for the markets, with a solid bounce back from the bottoms, especially after a tough time last week. Towards the end of this week, markets seemed to have come to a standstill, mostly waiting for the budget on Sunday.
There is very high volatility in the markets. But January - the month before the budget - tends to be like that.
FIIs continue to hold record net short positions on the index. This is an unprecedented short position and is bound to lead to a furious short covering very soon. In the cash markets, FIIs continue to sell incessantly.
Precious Metals saw their biggest ever crash in value terms yesterday.
Everyone is waiting for the most important financial event of the year. Sunday onwards, we should get some directional clarity.
Our Quant MarketMap kept flashing strong, positive reversal signs last week and the market has followed through this week, with a good reversal. Having said that, the market is not yet out of the woods.
This has been a good week for the markets, with a solid bounce back from the bottoms, especially after a tough time last week. Towards the end of this week, markets seemed to have come to a standstill, mostly waiting for the budget on Sunday.
There is very high volatility in the markets. But January - the month before the budget - tends to be like that.
FIIs continue to hold record net short positions on the index. This is an unprecedented short position and is bound to lead to a furious short covering very soon. In the cash markets, FIIs continue to sell incessantly.
Precious Metals saw their biggest ever crash in value terms yesterday.
Everyone is waiting for the most important financial event of the year. Sunday onwards, we should get some directional clarity.
This is what I had pointed out in one of my posts analyzing India's taxation data.
India cannot afford to cut taxes. People were expecting a tax rate cut on LTCG / STCG / STT.
Instead, the STT on F&O got increased.
Markets selling off in a big way today.
India cannot afford to cut taxes. People were expecting a tax rate cut on LTCG / STCG / STT.
Instead, the STT on F&O got increased.
Markets selling off in a big way today.
I am expecting the markets to recover from this shock soon.
Right now, a lot of positioning for the weekly F&O expiry on Tuesday.
Real reaction only after that.
Right now, a lot of positioning for the weekly F&O expiry on Tuesday.
Real reaction only after that.
(This is based purely on my current technical reading of the market)
Key thing to remember: today's volumes will be very thin as no institutions, Mutual Funds or FIIs are there today.
Today's market is not an indicative.
Give it time till midweek.
Today's market is not an indicative.
Give it time till midweek.
WHAT I NOTED IN MY DIARY:
Very negative markets but with thin participation. MarketMap is not negatively impacted so much and has been holding up well. Indices are forming bullish divergences on the daily charts. Also, indices have come back up from the sudden downside and have given good seller rejections. All stocks which saw sharp intra-day drawdowns have recovered well. These are all good signs. The probability is weighed towards a sharp recovery and upsides in the coming days.
Very negative markets but with thin participation. MarketMap is not negatively impacted so much and has been holding up well. Indices are forming bullish divergences on the daily charts. Also, indices have come back up from the sudden downside and have given good seller rejections. All stocks which saw sharp intra-day drawdowns have recovered well. These are all good signs. The probability is weighed towards a sharp recovery and upsides in the coming days.
Budget 2026 has proven that investors can lose money even on a Sunday!
Here is the effect of the Budget 2026:
Nifty50 ⬇️ 2.33%🔴
Nifty500 ⬇️ 2.03%🔴
MidCap ⬇️ 2.43%🔴
SmallCap ⬇️ 2.42%🔴
Overall Stocks - attached picture
Key Takeaways for the Markets:
Positive:
* Boost for the PHARMA Sector
* Good Capex allocation to DEFENSE & RAILWAYS
* INFRASTRUCTURE Spending boost
* Restructuring in POWER sector
* Fiscal Deficit Target remains conservative & prudent
* Borrowing Program conservative numbers
* Boost to MSME sector
* Good Push for MANUFACTURING Sector
Negative:
* STT increase for F&O Segment negative for CAPITAL MARKETS Sector
* Subsidies tightly controlled, negative for FERTILIZERS
Here is the effect of the Budget 2026:
Nifty50 ⬇️ 2.33%🔴
Nifty500 ⬇️ 2.03%🔴
MidCap ⬇️ 2.43%🔴
SmallCap ⬇️ 2.42%🔴
Overall Stocks - attached picture
Key Takeaways for the Markets:
Positive:
* Boost for the PHARMA Sector
* Good Capex allocation to DEFENSE & RAILWAYS
* INFRASTRUCTURE Spending boost
* Restructuring in POWER sector
* Fiscal Deficit Target remains conservative & prudent
* Borrowing Program conservative numbers
* Boost to MSME sector
* Good Push for MANUFACTURING Sector
Negative:
* STT increase for F&O Segment negative for CAPITAL MARKETS Sector
* Subsidies tightly controlled, negative for FERTILIZERS
Some duplicate channel in my name has been opened in Telegram. Beware.
This is a very common issue with Telegram. Reporting doesn't work much.
Like a lot of people, after a bit, I may not have any option but to shift completely to Whatsapp.
Shift to my whatsapp channel here: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbB2RVdHrDZiXfcI5G2y
This is a very common issue with Telegram. Reporting doesn't work much.
Like a lot of people, after a bit, I may not have any option but to shift completely to Whatsapp.
Shift to my whatsapp channel here: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbB2RVdHrDZiXfcI5G2y
WhatsApp.com
MoneyMan Investments
Channel • 69 followers • Understanding the Markets better = getting better at investing & growing your money!
This channel's purpose is to provide regular & simplified updates on the Financial & Capital Markets to help working professionals decode and understand…
This channel's purpose is to provide regular & simplified updates on the Financial & Capital Markets to help working professionals decode and understand…
Also, I am NOT on Instagram.
Some fake profile there as well! :(
Some fake profile there as well! :(