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External Validation of the #MEESSI Acute Heart #Failure Risk Score: A Cohort Study
https://annals.org/aim/article-abstract/2723394/external-validation-meessi-acute-heart-failure-risk-score-cohort-study
The MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score was developed to predict 30-day mortality in patients presenting with acute heart failure (AHF) to emergency departments (EDs) in Spain.
The score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.80). Assessment of cumulative mortality showed a steep gradient in 30-day mortality over 6 predefined risk groups (0 patients in the lowest-risk group vs. 35 28.5% in the highest-risk group). Risk was overestimated in the high-risk groups, resulting in a Hosmer–Lemeshow P value of 0.022. However, after adjustment of the intercept, the model showed good concordance between predicted risks and observed outcomes (P = 0.23). Findings were confirmed in sensitivity analyses that used multiple imputation for missing values in the overall cohort of 1572 patients.
External validation of the MEESSI-AHF risk score showed excellent discrimination. Recalibration may be needed when the score is introduced to new populations.
External Validation of the #MEESSI Acute Heart #Failure Risk Score: A Cohort Study
https://annals.org/aim/article-abstract/2723394/external-validation-meessi-acute-heart-failure-risk-score-cohort-study
The MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score was developed to predict 30-day mortality in patients presenting with acute heart failure (AHF) to emergency departments (EDs) in Spain.
The score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.80). Assessment of cumulative mortality showed a steep gradient in 30-day mortality over 6 predefined risk groups (0 patients in the lowest-risk group vs. 35 28.5% in the highest-risk group). Risk was overestimated in the high-risk groups, resulting in a Hosmer–Lemeshow P value of 0.022. However, after adjustment of the intercept, the model showed good concordance between predicted risks and observed outcomes (P = 0.23). Findings were confirmed in sensitivity analyses that used multiple imputation for missing values in the overall cohort of 1572 patients.
External validation of the MEESSI-AHF risk score showed excellent discrimination. Recalibration may be needed when the score is introduced to new populations.