I never get tired, and yet lately society just seems exhausting. Maybe I’m just old and grumpy now. TBD.
Anyone else feeling burnt out re:social media and the internet lately?
The tone, volume and nature of comments, messages and responses just seems different than even a year ago.
Am even noticing a shift with my student/parent interactions too. Public seems on edge.
The tone, volume and nature of comments, messages and responses just seems different than even a year ago.
Am even noticing a shift with my student/parent interactions too. Public seems on edge.
Growing concern for THURSDAY in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where we could have some tornadic supercells.
Early forecasts suggest the potential for rotating supercells – with an attendant tornado risk – that may eventually merge into a line. Once they merge later Thursday evening, the threat for tornadoes would wane and the predominant threat would become damaging straight-line winds.
Uncertainty is still high, and we're not yet close enough to the event to draw insight from CAMs, or Convective-Allowing Models. In other words, the models this far out can't "see" or simulate thunderstorms – but rather the overarching environment.
WHAT WE KNOW: A potent upper-level low pressure system is set to swing across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of it, an unseasonably warm, humid air mass will be drawn north, contributing to instability, or thunderstorm fuel.
The low will sweep a cold front east, which will push into that juiced-up air mass and trigger storms.
Early forecasts suggest the potential for rotating supercells – with an attendant tornado risk – that may eventually merge into a line. Once they merge later Thursday evening, the threat for tornadoes would wane and the predominant threat would become damaging straight-line winds.
Uncertainty is still high, and we're not yet close enough to the event to draw insight from CAMs, or Convective-Allowing Models. In other words, the models this far out can't "see" or simulate thunderstorms – but rather the overarching environment.
WHAT WE KNOW: A potent upper-level low pressure system is set to swing across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Ahead of it, an unseasonably warm, humid air mass will be drawn north, contributing to instability, or thunderstorm fuel.
The low will sweep a cold front east, which will push into that juiced-up air mass and trigger storms.
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Our stubborn cutoff low continues to bring downpours and a localized flooding/tornado risk across the Southeast:
Matthew Cappucci
@MatthewCappucci
A very active severe weather stretch begins Wednesday and lasts into early next week.
If you live in the Corn Belt, Upper Midwest, western Great Lakes or Plains, you’ll want to pay attention through Tuesday.
The jet stream will dip over the western U.S., allowing cold air and low pressure to take shape over the Rockies. Periodic disturbances will eject eastwards, encountering warm, humid air and generating storms.
WEDNESDAY, May 14: Low pressure organizing over North Dakota will swing a cold front east. Thunderstorms will form around 4 p.m. in central Nebraska and the Dakotas. Moisture will be meager, so expect high cloud bases. That cuts back on the tornado threat. The main hazards will be damaging winds around 60 mph and some quarter-sized hail. Storms will quickly merge into a line and push east toward Interstate 29 after sunset
@MatthewCappucci
A very active severe weather stretch begins Wednesday and lasts into early next week.
If you live in the Corn Belt, Upper Midwest, western Great Lakes or Plains, you’ll want to pay attention through Tuesday.
The jet stream will dip over the western U.S., allowing cold air and low pressure to take shape over the Rockies. Periodic disturbances will eject eastwards, encountering warm, humid air and generating storms.
WEDNESDAY, May 14: Low pressure organizing over North Dakota will swing a cold front east. Thunderstorms will form around 4 p.m. in central Nebraska and the Dakotas. Moisture will be meager, so expect high cloud bases. That cuts back on the tornado threat. The main hazards will be damaging winds around 60 mph and some quarter-sized hail. Storms will quickly merge into a line and push east toward Interstate 29 after sunset
Going back to bed. I will try starting my day when the universe is ready for me and my wonderfulness.
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Maintenance does not appear to have showed up at work so I will not be getting into my hotel room any time soon.
Apparently the batteries on my door died so now I’m waiting for maintenance so I can eat my not waffle 😂
Thursday, May 15 — severe weather outbreak potential over Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region.
A few tornadic supercells will be possible in Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana, including around the Chicago metro area. Coverage will be greatest in northern zones, with only widely-scattered storms — if that — in central/southern Illinois, Indiana and perhaps western Ohio.
Low pressure over Minnesota is scooping north warm, humid air. It’s also pulling a cold front into that juiced-up air mass, causing storms. And our low has kinked the jet stream overhead, adding wind energy to the atmosphere.
Given the environment, characterized by an overlap between robust instability (storm fuel) and spin, there’s the potential for one or two significant (EF2+) tornadoes. However, we’re not sure how widespread storms will be.
That’s because of a cap, or a lid of hot, dry air a mile above the ground. That cap might prevent surface air from rising, suppressing storm growth and cutting back on coverage.
A few tornadic supercells will be possible in Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana, including around the Chicago metro area. Coverage will be greatest in northern zones, with only widely-scattered storms — if that — in central/southern Illinois, Indiana and perhaps western Ohio.
Low pressure over Minnesota is scooping north warm, humid air. It’s also pulling a cold front into that juiced-up air mass, causing storms. And our low has kinked the jet stream overhead, adding wind energy to the atmosphere.
Given the environment, characterized by an overlap between robust instability (storm fuel) and spin, there’s the potential for one or two significant (EF2+) tornadoes. However, we’re not sure how widespread storms will be.
That’s because of a cap, or a lid of hot, dry air a mile above the ground. That cap might prevent surface air from rising, suppressing storm growth and cutting back on coverage.
Classic “Tornado Alley” supercell events likely Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday…
This weekend, it appears a “dryline” will set up along or west of the Interstate 35 corridor. That dryline marks the clash between dry desert air west and moisture-rich Gulf air to the east. It’s the clash that brews storms — especially with several jet stream disturbances working overhead.
Saturday’s storm could affect parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Sunday, the threat becomes more expansive — north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. It’s *possible* that only isolated storms form, since the approaching upper-air disturbance will still be a bit far away to the west, banked up over the Rockies.
On Monday, that upper-level low gets closer. That’s why storms will increase in both areal coverage and intensity, becoming at least scattered by the afternoon. The upper-level low will also kink the jet stream southwards, causing a dip (called a trough).
This weekend, it appears a “dryline” will set up along or west of the Interstate 35 corridor. That dryline marks the clash between dry desert air west and moisture-rich Gulf air to the east. It’s the clash that brews storms — especially with several jet stream disturbances working overhead.
Saturday’s storm could affect parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
By Sunday, the threat becomes more expansive — north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. It’s *possible* that only isolated storms form, since the approaching upper-air disturbance will still be a bit far away to the west, banked up over the Rockies.
On Monday, that upper-level low gets closer. That’s why storms will increase in both areal coverage and intensity, becoming at least scattered by the afternoon. The upper-level low will also kink the jet stream southwards, causing a dip (called a trough).