Next week is chock-full of data that will provide a window on the economy's performance and prospects. Up first on Tuesday is the Conference Board consumer confidence survey. When this index falls by more than 20 points in 3 months, recession invariably follows. It was down 17 Show more

Red flares may go off for the economy on Thursday when the April ISM manufacturing survey is released. The index will likely dive well below the break-even 50 threshold as global supply chains are severely disrupted by the U.S. tariffs and retaliation by China, the EU and Canada.

The week will end with the all-important April jobs data. If payroll jobs increase by 150k, give or take, which is the consensus, all the weak economic data released during the week will be forgotten, at least for a bit. Fingers crossed. But if employment increases by less than Show more

The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s Show more