Important Update:
Monday was a rough day for investors in financial markets, a brutal black swan event due to issues in Japans financial machine and world war escalations. We are all feeling the pain, which is why I felt this update needed to be delivered amidst mass uncertainty.
I believe we have now put in the next macro cycle bottom & there’s a strong case to be made for a aggressive V shaped recovery over the next couple of months taking us to new highs, kickstarting the real mania phase of the bull run.This is what i believe is going to happen with conviction.
Reasoning:
*Retail market sentiment is in extreme fear, even worse than the FTX collapse at the bear market lows. $1bn of longs liquidated within 24hrs on Monday, lots of panic/people throwing in the towel as a lot of alts have eradicated the entirety of their yearly gains. When things are dire you buy more conviction investments if you have the capital, or you hold, it’s smart investing 101.
*The volatility index (VIX) in equities hit a reading above 65 on Monday, this has happened in only two instances inside the past 15 years, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid crash. Both of which were generational buying opportunities for smart money, and V shaped recoveries happened inside a few months.
*There’s currently $17.18bn in cumulative Bitcoin ETF’s, $1.8bn in Ethereum ETF’s. Since this black swan event on Monday only -$317 million has flowed out of the Bitcoin ETF’s and the Ethereum ETF’s have seen a +$147m inflow. Hardly concerning data at all, smart money/boomers not selling so why should we be panicking here? We shouldn’t.
Morgan Stanley’s 15,000 commission based advisors have been given the green light to start selling BTC ETFs today as a side note to that.
*On Tuesday the 5th of November we have the presidential election, it’s irrelevant who wins to me as the outcome for risk on markets will be the same imo as their hand is forced.
In both the 2016 and 2020 November elections, market structure was very similar to what we see today. BTC/Equities hovering around structure highs, post the election the mania phase of the bull market begins, all time highs are convincingly broke and the bull market lasts for a year, therefore it’s still accumulation time here for us.
*I have been analysing the US government balance sheets. 40% of all tax income is now going towards servicing debt via yield on treasury bonds.
Global liquidity and money supply is now rising as can be seen on the M2 total money supply chart, new money created= new treasury bonds created.The wheel is starting to break and the only way they can slow the fiat monetary system collapse is by outperforming that debt obligation in terms of interest payments.
How do they do this? They inject the newly created money into the risk on markets, like equities/crypto/commodities stimulating bull market conditions with the aim to sell higher and outperform or make greater yield than the debt they have to service with creating the new money. In a nutshell, they need the markets to go higher here as it’s in their interest for them to do so.
Final thoughts:
The crypto market remains very PVP as it stands, and institutionally driven. BTC/ETH/SOL will be taking the limelight for the next few months until retail inevitably returns properly, likely in Q1 2025 and quality alts having their day in the sun.
The crypto market is now incredibly saturated with the constant flow of new coins on the market, when we do get to the proper bull phase not everything will pump, we will in my opinion act like the stock market where we have individual performances rather than acting like a ecosystem that moves in unison as seen previously.
Due to the above Im currently focusing on trading memes with strong communities to then rotate profits into GambleFI/RWA/Defi alts that bring value and have strong data backing them up, this is the highest ROI playbook in my view.
Patience guys 🤝 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfLaWTFy/
Monday was a rough day for investors in financial markets, a brutal black swan event due to issues in Japans financial machine and world war escalations. We are all feeling the pain, which is why I felt this update needed to be delivered amidst mass uncertainty.
I believe we have now put in the next macro cycle bottom & there’s a strong case to be made for a aggressive V shaped recovery over the next couple of months taking us to new highs, kickstarting the real mania phase of the bull run.This is what i believe is going to happen with conviction.
Reasoning:
*Retail market sentiment is in extreme fear, even worse than the FTX collapse at the bear market lows. $1bn of longs liquidated within 24hrs on Monday, lots of panic/people throwing in the towel as a lot of alts have eradicated the entirety of their yearly gains. When things are dire you buy more conviction investments if you have the capital, or you hold, it’s smart investing 101.
*The volatility index (VIX) in equities hit a reading above 65 on Monday, this has happened in only two instances inside the past 15 years, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid crash. Both of which were generational buying opportunities for smart money, and V shaped recoveries happened inside a few months.
*There’s currently $17.18bn in cumulative Bitcoin ETF’s, $1.8bn in Ethereum ETF’s. Since this black swan event on Monday only -$317 million has flowed out of the Bitcoin ETF’s and the Ethereum ETF’s have seen a +$147m inflow. Hardly concerning data at all, smart money/boomers not selling so why should we be panicking here? We shouldn’t.
Morgan Stanley’s 15,000 commission based advisors have been given the green light to start selling BTC ETFs today as a side note to that.
*On Tuesday the 5th of November we have the presidential election, it’s irrelevant who wins to me as the outcome for risk on markets will be the same imo as their hand is forced.
In both the 2016 and 2020 November elections, market structure was very similar to what we see today. BTC/Equities hovering around structure highs, post the election the mania phase of the bull market begins, all time highs are convincingly broke and the bull market lasts for a year, therefore it’s still accumulation time here for us.
*I have been analysing the US government balance sheets. 40% of all tax income is now going towards servicing debt via yield on treasury bonds.
Global liquidity and money supply is now rising as can be seen on the M2 total money supply chart, new money created= new treasury bonds created.The wheel is starting to break and the only way they can slow the fiat monetary system collapse is by outperforming that debt obligation in terms of interest payments.
How do they do this? They inject the newly created money into the risk on markets, like equities/crypto/commodities stimulating bull market conditions with the aim to sell higher and outperform or make greater yield than the debt they have to service with creating the new money. In a nutshell, they need the markets to go higher here as it’s in their interest for them to do so.
Final thoughts:
The crypto market remains very PVP as it stands, and institutionally driven. BTC/ETH/SOL will be taking the limelight for the next few months until retail inevitably returns properly, likely in Q1 2025 and quality alts having their day in the sun.
The crypto market is now incredibly saturated with the constant flow of new coins on the market, when we do get to the proper bull phase not everything will pump, we will in my opinion act like the stock market where we have individual performances rather than acting like a ecosystem that moves in unison as seen previously.
Due to the above Im currently focusing on trading memes with strong communities to then rotate profits into GambleFI/RWA/Defi alts that bring value and have strong data backing them up, this is the highest ROI playbook in my view.
Patience guys 🤝 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfLaWTFy/
TradingView
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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Dan's Market Updates pinned «Important Update: Monday was a rough day for investors in financial markets, a brutal black swan event due to issues in Japans financial machine and world war escalations. We are all feeling the pain, which is why I felt this update needed to be delivered…»
Dan's Market Updates
The market is starting to wake up to the opportunity at hand! 👀 +176% the past 6 days and I expect a strong continuation higher from here to new all time highs inside Q3. Why do I think this? 👇 *Shortly after my update post the team announced that they…
TG.CASINO ($TGC) 1D Update:
Finished my accumulation now, fired a couple more chunky buys in around $0.23 over the past few weeks due to my strong conviction in the team and how this performs, now it’s time to hold and enjoy the ride! 📈
I have to say what an exceptional looking chart!😍
We are now at a very interesting point, when this trend line breaks this goes parabolic to the upside and fast imo.
I continue to be impressed by the teams management and their ability to deliver, constantly smashing targets and working their arses off, grinding 7 days a week so credit where credit is due!
All data metrics continue to rise and I’m not surprised, hard not to rally behind the execution here. 67% of the supply is staked in 90-180 day locks now.
It’s been announced that TGC are working on integrating leverage trading, which I wasn’t aware of and I’m excited about, given it’s pretty much the only feature Rollbit have that TGC currently don’t have which has proven very fruitful for Rollbit.
Incredibly excited for the future with TGC! 🤝
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pMDxbqDE/
Finished my accumulation now, fired a couple more chunky buys in around $0.23 over the past few weeks due to my strong conviction in the team and how this performs, now it’s time to hold and enjoy the ride! 📈
I have to say what an exceptional looking chart!😍
We are now at a very interesting point, when this trend line breaks this goes parabolic to the upside and fast imo.
I continue to be impressed by the teams management and their ability to deliver, constantly smashing targets and working their arses off, grinding 7 days a week so credit where credit is due!
All data metrics continue to rise and I’m not surprised, hard not to rally behind the execution here. 67% of the supply is staked in 90-180 day locks now.
It’s been announced that TGC are working on integrating leverage trading, which I wasn’t aware of and I’m excited about, given it’s pretty much the only feature Rollbit have that TGC currently don’t have which has proven very fruitful for Rollbit.
Incredibly excited for the future with TGC! 🤝
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pMDxbqDE/
TradingView
TGC/USD - UNI Chart Image
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BTC 1D/Important Update:
We are now at the most pivotal point seen in the past 6 months of the industry, clear potential for a change of market structure, igniting the real “bull market”.
As of this week we had the first interest rate cut seen in 4 years in 🇺🇸, cutting rates by 50bps surprising the market, risk asset classes having a fruitful run higher since then but crypto is still ultimately lagging behind.
Interestingly sentiment is still conflicted from what I’m seeing, probably more bearish, especially in crypto. Many are thinking they are economists and positioning themselves based on fundamental beliefs/historical data rather than what they should be doing, which is following money flow and assessing market structures (like myself).
Im now going to make my position clear on my projections in the short-medium term, along with the supporting data.
Short term:
I expect we will continue to push higher from here with high volatility on BTC, either breaking or at the all time highs leading into the US elections on November 5th, this will continue the dynamic of “whats not expected” as the general market consensus is nothing is going to happen until then, certainly was before the rate cut this week.
A few days before the election decision, I will be assessing risk, as I’m extremely risk on weighted portfolio wise and have been since the August 5th bottom. It’s clear to me that it’s preferential for the industry that trump wins, I think he will win BUT if he doesn’t it’s going to hinder money flow back into risk assets with this stupid “25% tax on realised gains for asset holdings above $100m”proposal from the democrats, whales move the markets and this isn’t protecting whales, therefore a risk assessment is justified.
Medium term:
I stand by my plan to start exiting the market in Q1 2025, I continue to believe we will see a blow off top style market expansion structure based on fast, concentrated liquidity injections amidst turbulent economic conditions such as stagflation. A orchestrated retail liquidity absorption play plain and simple.
Supporting data:
*In both 2016 and 2020 November elections, crypto proceeded to start its “bull run” mania phase.
*Institutional ETF’s on BTC have seen large positive inflows the past two weeks consecutively.
*All of the large liquidity pockets to absorb on BTC perpetual/futures are higher from here, amassing $100+billion in positions from $65-75k, so market markers are incentivised to push prices higher.
*Global liquidity continues to rise at a fast pace.
*Stocks and Gold making new all time highs whilst crypto is lagging behind, the correlated historical performance implies a catch up and outperformance is due.
*$180 billion is currently sat in stablecoins, therefore easy flowing liquidity needed for higher prices is readily available.
*The relative strength of the USD (DXY) is on its last legs holding above 100.000, a breakdown implies a move towards the low 90’s which is bullish for risk assets.
*BTC.D at the top of the rising wedge structure in place since 2022, flirting above the 50% FIB at 57.8%, a breakdown will be VERY lucrative for alts.
In summary:
Now is the time to lock in, back to long trading days and intense focus in the markets, for the prospect of massive rewards.
Keeping my eyes peeled whilst on the edge of my seat, looking forward to the coming weeks! 📈🤝
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fmN4KsM5/
We are now at the most pivotal point seen in the past 6 months of the industry, clear potential for a change of market structure, igniting the real “bull market”.
As of this week we had the first interest rate cut seen in 4 years in 🇺🇸, cutting rates by 50bps surprising the market, risk asset classes having a fruitful run higher since then but crypto is still ultimately lagging behind.
Interestingly sentiment is still conflicted from what I’m seeing, probably more bearish, especially in crypto. Many are thinking they are economists and positioning themselves based on fundamental beliefs/historical data rather than what they should be doing, which is following money flow and assessing market structures (like myself).
Im now going to make my position clear on my projections in the short-medium term, along with the supporting data.
Short term:
I expect we will continue to push higher from here with high volatility on BTC, either breaking or at the all time highs leading into the US elections on November 5th, this will continue the dynamic of “whats not expected” as the general market consensus is nothing is going to happen until then, certainly was before the rate cut this week.
A few days before the election decision, I will be assessing risk, as I’m extremely risk on weighted portfolio wise and have been since the August 5th bottom. It’s clear to me that it’s preferential for the industry that trump wins, I think he will win BUT if he doesn’t it’s going to hinder money flow back into risk assets with this stupid “25% tax on realised gains for asset holdings above $100m”proposal from the democrats, whales move the markets and this isn’t protecting whales, therefore a risk assessment is justified.
Medium term:
I stand by my plan to start exiting the market in Q1 2025, I continue to believe we will see a blow off top style market expansion structure based on fast, concentrated liquidity injections amidst turbulent economic conditions such as stagflation. A orchestrated retail liquidity absorption play plain and simple.
Supporting data:
*In both 2016 and 2020 November elections, crypto proceeded to start its “bull run” mania phase.
*Institutional ETF’s on BTC have seen large positive inflows the past two weeks consecutively.
*All of the large liquidity pockets to absorb on BTC perpetual/futures are higher from here, amassing $100+billion in positions from $65-75k, so market markers are incentivised to push prices higher.
*Global liquidity continues to rise at a fast pace.
*Stocks and Gold making new all time highs whilst crypto is lagging behind, the correlated historical performance implies a catch up and outperformance is due.
*$180 billion is currently sat in stablecoins, therefore easy flowing liquidity needed for higher prices is readily available.
*The relative strength of the USD (DXY) is on its last legs holding above 100.000, a breakdown implies a move towards the low 90’s which is bullish for risk assets.
*BTC.D at the top of the rising wedge structure in place since 2022, flirting above the 50% FIB at 57.8%, a breakdown will be VERY lucrative for alts.
In summary:
Now is the time to lock in, back to long trading days and intense focus in the markets, for the prospect of massive rewards.
Keeping my eyes peeled whilst on the edge of my seat, looking forward to the coming weeks! 📈🤝
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fmN4KsM5/
TradingView
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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Dan's Market Updates
BTC 1D/Important Update: We are now at the most pivotal point seen in the past 6 months of the industry, clear potential for a change of market structure, igniting the real “bull market”. As of this week we had the first interest rate cut seen in 4 years…
BTC 1D/Important Update:
Upon my last update on the 21st of September, I stated the following:
*We are now at the most pivotal point seen in the last 6 months, clear potential for a change of market structure, igniting the real “bull market”
*BTC will be either at or breaking ATH’s leading into the November 5th elections.
*I think Donald Trump will win the election.
*A risk assessment needs to be conducted the week leading into the election decision.
I’m pleased to report that everything is going to plan!
From a technical basis we now have a very bullish market structure in play on BTC, making higher highs and higher lows on HTF’s whilst seeing the 50 & 200 MA’s re-cross on the 1D timeframe (confirming change of trend/structure) whilst currently testing the ATH area/top of the range.
Donald Trump has gone from an underdog with a 47.9% chance of winning, to a favourite with a 67% chance of winning on Polymarket.
It couldn’t look much better than it does currently in a dream scenario!
Risk assessment:
I’m not reducing risk, I’m happy with the current positioning of being 95% risk weighted, when it comes down to it I believe in my projections with complete conviction, and you press an advantage when there’s a perceived one to be pressed, volatility doesn’t concern me it’s the end goal that matters in Q1-Q2.
I hold a lot of spot Solana, and have been doing very well as of late trading there…however the bulk of my portfolio is in Ethereum and Ethereum based utilities/derivatives, which are massively oversold as it is, so having substantial risk in these areas doesn’t carry the usual risk in my view, hence no adjustment to risk positioning being taken.
In the current market conditions the things that are running are mainly memes, Solana massively dominant but Base popping off selectively as well, this has created a naive retail perspective that this is all that’s going to continue happening for the rest of the cycle (lol).
People can’t seem to see the forest for the trees here…realise that we are in a PvP landscape and have been since March, as soon as BTC breaks its ATH and we get elections out the way, lots of new liquidity and participants will enter the market, lots of stuff will be running to big numbers and not just memes, therefore monster roi trades are there for the taking on Ethereum for those who are patient in my view.
Current thoughts:
We are currently 2% away from ATH’s on BTC, seeing the strongest institutional inflows on ETF’s since inception and have US election results in a week with trump being the clear favourite who’s pro crypto, yet it’s a ghost town on socials.🤔
It’s as if retail is massively sidelined in cash or net short on the market… ohh wait they are! 😆
I expect we will continue marching higher over the next week, breaking the BTC ATH pre election as people can’t seem to fathom that’s a possibility pre election, In doing so it punishes people who are short and punishes people who are playing it safe waiting to deploy capital post election outcome.
Expect the unexpected… I’m Bullish! 📈😎
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4WElOXj/
Upon my last update on the 21st of September, I stated the following:
*We are now at the most pivotal point seen in the last 6 months, clear potential for a change of market structure, igniting the real “bull market”
*BTC will be either at or breaking ATH’s leading into the November 5th elections.
*I think Donald Trump will win the election.
*A risk assessment needs to be conducted the week leading into the election decision.
I’m pleased to report that everything is going to plan!
From a technical basis we now have a very bullish market structure in play on BTC, making higher highs and higher lows on HTF’s whilst seeing the 50 & 200 MA’s re-cross on the 1D timeframe (confirming change of trend/structure) whilst currently testing the ATH area/top of the range.
Donald Trump has gone from an underdog with a 47.9% chance of winning, to a favourite with a 67% chance of winning on Polymarket.
It couldn’t look much better than it does currently in a dream scenario!
Risk assessment:
I’m not reducing risk, I’m happy with the current positioning of being 95% risk weighted, when it comes down to it I believe in my projections with complete conviction, and you press an advantage when there’s a perceived one to be pressed, volatility doesn’t concern me it’s the end goal that matters in Q1-Q2.
I hold a lot of spot Solana, and have been doing very well as of late trading there…however the bulk of my portfolio is in Ethereum and Ethereum based utilities/derivatives, which are massively oversold as it is, so having substantial risk in these areas doesn’t carry the usual risk in my view, hence no adjustment to risk positioning being taken.
In the current market conditions the things that are running are mainly memes, Solana massively dominant but Base popping off selectively as well, this has created a naive retail perspective that this is all that’s going to continue happening for the rest of the cycle (lol).
People can’t seem to see the forest for the trees here…realise that we are in a PvP landscape and have been since March, as soon as BTC breaks its ATH and we get elections out the way, lots of new liquidity and participants will enter the market, lots of stuff will be running to big numbers and not just memes, therefore monster roi trades are there for the taking on Ethereum for those who are patient in my view.
Current thoughts:
We are currently 2% away from ATH’s on BTC, seeing the strongest institutional inflows on ETF’s since inception and have US election results in a week with trump being the clear favourite who’s pro crypto, yet it’s a ghost town on socials.🤔
It’s as if retail is massively sidelined in cash or net short on the market… ohh wait they are! 😆
I expect we will continue marching higher over the next week, breaking the BTC ATH pre election as people can’t seem to fathom that’s a possibility pre election, In doing so it punishes people who are short and punishes people who are playing it safe waiting to deploy capital post election outcome.
Expect the unexpected… I’m Bullish! 📈😎
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4WElOXj/
TradingView
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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BTC 1D/Important Update:
Things are looking extremely promising at the moment!
As per my last update upon the Trump election confirmation, Bitcoin has marched higher and we have started to see the bulk of the short term parabolic upside, based on short side liquidity absorption and strong spot buying demand from both ETF’s and retail investors.
Current thoughts
I believe we are close to a local top on Bitcoin (not cycle top).
There’s two scenarios I see happening in the short term.
Scenario A:
Bitcoin tops at $98-100k.
There’s an ask (sell) wall on centralised exchanges in this vicinity, $100k is a psychological number and was discussed a lot as a “top” pre the Trump election.
The 61.8% Fib on BTC.D sits at 60.37% and it’s currently hovering around 61%, retesting last weeks highs and is currently rejecting, further reinforcing a local top price wise scenario on BTC.
In the event this scenario is correct, BTC will pullback 10-20% and alts will really start to pick up steam and move higher, starting with majors like ETH and Sol, then liquidity further trickling down from there to mid and low caps for several weeks.
Scenario B:
We will have further chop around $98-100k on BTC, but ultimately proceeding higher towards $115k over the next couple of weeks. BTC.D proceeds towards the 70.5% FIB at 63.4% and we assess a local top there.
BTC ETF inflow data remains strong at the moment and from a technical structure standpoint there’s no confirmation of a top as it stands, giving credibility to this scenario.
In the event this scenario is correct, major alts will chop about and maybe even see some short term pain like we have seen this week, but the upside will be much more significant on a shorter time horizon when BTC does ultimately put in the local top.
Final thoughts:
Either scenario is great for those who have positioned themselves with a risk on weighted portfolio like myself.
No changes have been made from myself in terms of positioning, I’m still 95% risk exposed and I’m positioned heavily in ETH AI/utilities, Base memes, Sol/Memes.
You aren’t bullish enough on what’s going to come in Q1, so many are still sidelined and the pain trade remains higher. 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vy3hwBa4/
Things are looking extremely promising at the moment!
As per my last update upon the Trump election confirmation, Bitcoin has marched higher and we have started to see the bulk of the short term parabolic upside, based on short side liquidity absorption and strong spot buying demand from both ETF’s and retail investors.
Current thoughts
I believe we are close to a local top on Bitcoin (not cycle top).
There’s two scenarios I see happening in the short term.
Scenario A:
Bitcoin tops at $98-100k.
There’s an ask (sell) wall on centralised exchanges in this vicinity, $100k is a psychological number and was discussed a lot as a “top” pre the Trump election.
The 61.8% Fib on BTC.D sits at 60.37% and it’s currently hovering around 61%, retesting last weeks highs and is currently rejecting, further reinforcing a local top price wise scenario on BTC.
In the event this scenario is correct, BTC will pullback 10-20% and alts will really start to pick up steam and move higher, starting with majors like ETH and Sol, then liquidity further trickling down from there to mid and low caps for several weeks.
Scenario B:
We will have further chop around $98-100k on BTC, but ultimately proceeding higher towards $115k over the next couple of weeks. BTC.D proceeds towards the 70.5% FIB at 63.4% and we assess a local top there.
BTC ETF inflow data remains strong at the moment and from a technical structure standpoint there’s no confirmation of a top as it stands, giving credibility to this scenario.
In the event this scenario is correct, major alts will chop about and maybe even see some short term pain like we have seen this week, but the upside will be much more significant on a shorter time horizon when BTC does ultimately put in the local top.
Final thoughts:
Either scenario is great for those who have positioned themselves with a risk on weighted portfolio like myself.
No changes have been made from myself in terms of positioning, I’m still 95% risk exposed and I’m positioned heavily in ETH AI/utilities, Base memes, Sol/Memes.
You aren’t bullish enough on what’s going to come in Q1, so many are still sidelined and the pain trade remains higher. 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vy3hwBa4/
TradingView
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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Dan's Market Updates pinned «BTC 1D/Important Update: Things are looking extremely promising at the moment! As per my last update upon the Trump election confirmation, Bitcoin has marched higher and we have started to see the bulk of the short term parabolic upside, based on short…»
Dan's Market Updates
BTC 1D/Important Update: Things are looking extremely promising at the moment! As per my last update upon the Trump election confirmation, Bitcoin has marched higher and we have started to see the bulk of the short term parabolic upside, based on short…
BTC 1D/Important Update:
What an amazing couple of weeks we have had in the market! 😎📈
Scenario A played out almost perfectly:
*BTC locally topped in the $98-100k zone as stated.
*Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) fell from 61% to 54.6%
*Bitcoin fell -9% (I stated 10-20% was likely)
*Altcoins have seen massive rally’s during this period, as promised.
Current thoughts
All eyes are now on Bitcoin again, history has been made with it breaking $100k per BTC.
I’m expecting Bitcoin to keep marching higher over the course of December and peaking this “Santa Rally” in the $115k-120k vicinity, the data simply supports this outlook.
All cohorts of Bitcoin holders have been accumulating aggressively pre the $100k breakout today, and the BTC ETF’s have seen inflows of +$1.58 billion already so far this week, the pace isn’t slowing down which is great to see!
Whilst Bitcoin is taking the spotlight I’m not expecting much to happen with major alts until Bitcoin tops again, in the interim period until that happens, I believe liquidity will start to flow down into mid-low caps from the high caps that have recently put on huge gains, as people will get impatient and by design chase further green candles.
Final thoughts
Nothing has changed for me in terms of positioning, I remain 95% risk weighted and remain holding everything I have mentioned. I have no plans to change that from here until I’m exiting the market towards the end of Q1 2025. I will simply be rotating as and when it makes sense to do so, with the aim of capturing the highest roi possible, e.g. selling some BTC at the next top to put into altcoins.
All of a sudden it doesn’t seem so silly to be weighted heavily in Ethereum! AI/RWA/Utilities all performing well on this recent rally, even though everyone was making memes and calling Ethereum dead not so long ago! a classic example of don’t follow the herd! 😂.
Now is the time to sit on your conviction positions and wait, don’t be over trading as liquidity flowing will be fast and erratic, when January rolls around and Trump gets inaugurated on the 20th, that’s when the real mania phase of this bull market kicks off, and then we exit on the euphoria.
NFA, patience! 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v98PrKLH/
What an amazing couple of weeks we have had in the market! 😎📈
Scenario A played out almost perfectly:
*BTC locally topped in the $98-100k zone as stated.
*Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) fell from 61% to 54.6%
*Bitcoin fell -9% (I stated 10-20% was likely)
*Altcoins have seen massive rally’s during this period, as promised.
Current thoughts
All eyes are now on Bitcoin again, history has been made with it breaking $100k per BTC.
I’m expecting Bitcoin to keep marching higher over the course of December and peaking this “Santa Rally” in the $115k-120k vicinity, the data simply supports this outlook.
All cohorts of Bitcoin holders have been accumulating aggressively pre the $100k breakout today, and the BTC ETF’s have seen inflows of +$1.58 billion already so far this week, the pace isn’t slowing down which is great to see!
Whilst Bitcoin is taking the spotlight I’m not expecting much to happen with major alts until Bitcoin tops again, in the interim period until that happens, I believe liquidity will start to flow down into mid-low caps from the high caps that have recently put on huge gains, as people will get impatient and by design chase further green candles.
Final thoughts
Nothing has changed for me in terms of positioning, I remain 95% risk weighted and remain holding everything I have mentioned. I have no plans to change that from here until I’m exiting the market towards the end of Q1 2025. I will simply be rotating as and when it makes sense to do so, with the aim of capturing the highest roi possible, e.g. selling some BTC at the next top to put into altcoins.
All of a sudden it doesn’t seem so silly to be weighted heavily in Ethereum! AI/RWA/Utilities all performing well on this recent rally, even though everyone was making memes and calling Ethereum dead not so long ago! a classic example of don’t follow the herd! 😂.
Now is the time to sit on your conviction positions and wait, don’t be over trading as liquidity flowing will be fast and erratic, when January rolls around and Trump gets inaugurated on the 20th, that’s when the real mania phase of this bull market kicks off, and then we exit on the euphoria.
NFA, patience! 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v98PrKLH/
TradingView
BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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Dan's Market Updates pinned «BTC 1D/Important Update: What an amazing couple of weeks we have had in the market! 😎📈 Scenario A played out almost perfectly: *BTC locally topped in the $98-100k zone as stated. *Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) fell from 61% to 54.6% *Bitcoin fell -9% (I stated…»
BTC 1D/Important Update:
It’s been several weeks now since my last update, during which I have been enjoying the holidays and keeping a close eye on the markets, as we know they wait for nobody.
Unfortunately the market went wayward from my short term December into the new year projections, with BTC prematurely putting in a local top at $108k (rather than the $115k-120k projected) and proceeding to chop about in a wide range, whilst alts take a further beating, creating a market environment/sentiment very reminiscent of Q2 2024 imo.
Current Thoughts:
It seems like a lot of market participants are at or close to the point of throwing in the towel, the constant and accelerating PvP landscape where you have to chase new narratives like ai agents and play multi chain in order to stand a chance of making substantial returns on substantial liquidity, is understandably tiresome, especially for casuals.
The main talking points I’m seeing a lot of at the moment on socials are:
*Theres too many coins, essentially we have an oversaturated marketplace filled with mostly vaporware I.e memes.
*The market has changed, retail are not interested and there’s not enough liquidity to support unison market growth, like what was seen in 2021.
*There will be no alt season or we have already had it.
Reading the above I would say no we will not see a market like 2021 again, irreversible damage was done to retail perception of the industry with the collapse of Luna, FTX etc so a lot of retail speculators will never return as they got burned.
At the start of 2024 we had the Solana ecosystem boom and the creation of pumpfun, which has put the nail in the coffin as the majority of retail that did return got burned again and the marketplace has become insanely oversaturated with vaporware.
Pumpfun alone brought 5 million new coins onto the market in 2024 as an example putting the current coins in circulation 5-10x the 2021 peak, furthermore making it impossible to see “easy mode” where everything goes up again, as there’s not enough free flowing liquidity in these tight economic conditions.
This has all been clear for a long time to people capable of reading data, so I’m struggling to see why this is being discussed now.
We will see an alt season though and it hasn’t happened yet imo, with this being an institutionally lead cycle and ETF’s playing a big part in Bitcoins growth, Bitcoin needs to hit a point where demand slows down and people take profits heavier than we are seeing currently, that is all.
BTC.D will drop heavily out of the blue once this point is reached and we will see alts with value/narratives/distribution perform and the dead weight will remain dead weight, this point hasn’t been hit yet as there’s clear optimism on Bitcoin’s performance with what Trump has been saying over the last few months.
This is essentially a bet on human nature as greed is inevitable and people won’t want the party to be over, furthermore I think this will unfold inside the next few months when BTC puts in the cycle top sub $150k.
Technical Observations/Final Thoughts:
In recent history within risk on markets, they sell off in the build up to the inauguration date, so although seeing constant red at the moment isn’t pleasant, it’s not something we should be overly concerned about, especially when we aren’t making new lows across the board… this just feels like a shakeout before the rally (it wouldn’t be the first time this has happened lol).
I believe BTC has just put in the local bottom upon that wick lower below the support band at $90k, heat maps across exchanges imply a lot of liquidations occurred there so it makes sense.
BTC ETF data has seen a net positive inflow since the start of January, it would be net negative if we were heading significantly lower from here imo.
I’m being patient and holding my positions, I believe we will start marching higher again post the 20/01/2025, igniting the mania phase/blow off top final stage of the bull market throughout Q1/early Q2 as previously stated. 📈
https://www.
It’s been several weeks now since my last update, during which I have been enjoying the holidays and keeping a close eye on the markets, as we know they wait for nobody.
Unfortunately the market went wayward from my short term December into the new year projections, with BTC prematurely putting in a local top at $108k (rather than the $115k-120k projected) and proceeding to chop about in a wide range, whilst alts take a further beating, creating a market environment/sentiment very reminiscent of Q2 2024 imo.
Current Thoughts:
It seems like a lot of market participants are at or close to the point of throwing in the towel, the constant and accelerating PvP landscape where you have to chase new narratives like ai agents and play multi chain in order to stand a chance of making substantial returns on substantial liquidity, is understandably tiresome, especially for casuals.
The main talking points I’m seeing a lot of at the moment on socials are:
*Theres too many coins, essentially we have an oversaturated marketplace filled with mostly vaporware I.e memes.
*The market has changed, retail are not interested and there’s not enough liquidity to support unison market growth, like what was seen in 2021.
*There will be no alt season or we have already had it.
Reading the above I would say no we will not see a market like 2021 again, irreversible damage was done to retail perception of the industry with the collapse of Luna, FTX etc so a lot of retail speculators will never return as they got burned.
At the start of 2024 we had the Solana ecosystem boom and the creation of pumpfun, which has put the nail in the coffin as the majority of retail that did return got burned again and the marketplace has become insanely oversaturated with vaporware.
Pumpfun alone brought 5 million new coins onto the market in 2024 as an example putting the current coins in circulation 5-10x the 2021 peak, furthermore making it impossible to see “easy mode” where everything goes up again, as there’s not enough free flowing liquidity in these tight economic conditions.
This has all been clear for a long time to people capable of reading data, so I’m struggling to see why this is being discussed now.
We will see an alt season though and it hasn’t happened yet imo, with this being an institutionally lead cycle and ETF’s playing a big part in Bitcoins growth, Bitcoin needs to hit a point where demand slows down and people take profits heavier than we are seeing currently, that is all.
BTC.D will drop heavily out of the blue once this point is reached and we will see alts with value/narratives/distribution perform and the dead weight will remain dead weight, this point hasn’t been hit yet as there’s clear optimism on Bitcoin’s performance with what Trump has been saying over the last few months.
This is essentially a bet on human nature as greed is inevitable and people won’t want the party to be over, furthermore I think this will unfold inside the next few months when BTC puts in the cycle top sub $150k.
Technical Observations/Final Thoughts:
In recent history within risk on markets, they sell off in the build up to the inauguration date, so although seeing constant red at the moment isn’t pleasant, it’s not something we should be overly concerned about, especially when we aren’t making new lows across the board… this just feels like a shakeout before the rally (it wouldn’t be the first time this has happened lol).
I believe BTC has just put in the local bottom upon that wick lower below the support band at $90k, heat maps across exchanges imply a lot of liquidations occurred there so it makes sense.
BTC ETF data has seen a net positive inflow since the start of January, it would be net negative if we were heading significantly lower from here imo.
I’m being patient and holding my positions, I believe we will start marching higher again post the 20/01/2025, igniting the mania phase/blow off top final stage of the bull market throughout Q1/early Q2 as previously stated. 📈
https://www.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
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Total 2/Important Update:
Over the past few weeks I have been collecting my thoughts and making a lot of analytical observations across multiple sectors, both technical and macro economical.
My findings have been very interesting, so I’m going to present a complete market outlook a bit broader than usual today.
On the 3rd of February we had the largest industry liquidation event in history with an estimated $8-10bn in positions being liquidated, most coins falling by 25%+ and recovering the entire fall within the same day, truly astonishing to see.
This liquidation event has been a sentiment decimator, lots of high following and respectable people within the space have been completely wiped out, and retail as a whole is still capitulating due to mass panic and everyone thinking it’s over… it’s not, and lots of moves are being made behind the scenes.
Early hours on the day of the liquidation event, the market maker Wintermute was working with the big CEX’s (I.e Coinbase & Binance) coordinating large scale market selling, offloading positions into thin order books on a weekend to manipulate prices down across the board, this caused the beginning of a cascade of liquidations which was then accelerated by retail fud around the trade wars started by D.Trump, a classic bake and take in terms of liquidity absorption, they turned up the heat and took the money. Overall though just short term pain and healthy for the space in general imo, major liquidation events always mark bottoms.
What is now happening is much more interesting, we are seeing full scale market manipulation in play, it’s apparent with all the majors alt coins PA trading very similar.
Ethereum as an example has the largest $ value of shorts open ever seen atm and I believe it’s as a carry trade, wherein they are essentially suppressing the price of ETH having the shorts open, whilst they accumulate it via buys in spot whilst bringing limited volatility in doing so. This is made apparent with the ETF inflows, Blackrock, Trump family etc (all smart money) accumulating ETH.
They will close the shorts once accumulation is finished and the bounce across the board will be strong, I.e ETH surging 15% in a day and other large scale alts they are also doing this on probably doing 20-40% right as retail is sidelined or having completely exited the market, making that “ahh fuck” moment where retail either has to fomo in and be at risk of a trap I.e dead cat bounce or they stay sidelined and run the risk of the train leaving the station and not stopping, the perfect storm for a monstrous rally.
Think about it logically, now is not the time to be bearish on ETH and utility alts, people are pivoting from SOL as they are sick of scams and losing to cabals via memes, it will also be the most hated rally seen and one most will pass on as it has been memed as the worst performing asset this cycle so far.
What I believe is going to come is a catalyst, and that catalyst being Blackrock going live with ETH ETF staking within the next few weeks, in which people who hold ETH in the ETF can stake and earn yield, which will cause a massive dimensional shift towards ETH ETF’s from BTC ETF’s, as at the moment it makes more sense to be in BTC ETF’s hence the numbers being massively more dominant there, but not with this catalyst, this would explain the accumulation being seen and the clear motives behind what we have seen recently imo as it’s about positioning for control to these big players.
Based on the above I have been refining my portfolio over the course of the past month, having fewer positions and going bolder in terms of position sizing, I’m 95% risk weighted on Ethereum and the ecosystem, in areas such as RWA, DeFI & GambleFi.
Over the past few weeks I have been collecting my thoughts and making a lot of analytical observations across multiple sectors, both technical and macro economical.
My findings have been very interesting, so I’m going to present a complete market outlook a bit broader than usual today.
On the 3rd of February we had the largest industry liquidation event in history with an estimated $8-10bn in positions being liquidated, most coins falling by 25%+ and recovering the entire fall within the same day, truly astonishing to see.
This liquidation event has been a sentiment decimator, lots of high following and respectable people within the space have been completely wiped out, and retail as a whole is still capitulating due to mass panic and everyone thinking it’s over… it’s not, and lots of moves are being made behind the scenes.
Early hours on the day of the liquidation event, the market maker Wintermute was working with the big CEX’s (I.e Coinbase & Binance) coordinating large scale market selling, offloading positions into thin order books on a weekend to manipulate prices down across the board, this caused the beginning of a cascade of liquidations which was then accelerated by retail fud around the trade wars started by D.Trump, a classic bake and take in terms of liquidity absorption, they turned up the heat and took the money. Overall though just short term pain and healthy for the space in general imo, major liquidation events always mark bottoms.
What is now happening is much more interesting, we are seeing full scale market manipulation in play, it’s apparent with all the majors alt coins PA trading very similar.
Ethereum as an example has the largest $ value of shorts open ever seen atm and I believe it’s as a carry trade, wherein they are essentially suppressing the price of ETH having the shorts open, whilst they accumulate it via buys in spot whilst bringing limited volatility in doing so. This is made apparent with the ETF inflows, Blackrock, Trump family etc (all smart money) accumulating ETH.
They will close the shorts once accumulation is finished and the bounce across the board will be strong, I.e ETH surging 15% in a day and other large scale alts they are also doing this on probably doing 20-40% right as retail is sidelined or having completely exited the market, making that “ahh fuck” moment where retail either has to fomo in and be at risk of a trap I.e dead cat bounce or they stay sidelined and run the risk of the train leaving the station and not stopping, the perfect storm for a monstrous rally.
Think about it logically, now is not the time to be bearish on ETH and utility alts, people are pivoting from SOL as they are sick of scams and losing to cabals via memes, it will also be the most hated rally seen and one most will pass on as it has been memed as the worst performing asset this cycle so far.
What I believe is going to come is a catalyst, and that catalyst being Blackrock going live with ETH ETF staking within the next few weeks, in which people who hold ETH in the ETF can stake and earn yield, which will cause a massive dimensional shift towards ETH ETF’s from BTC ETF’s, as at the moment it makes more sense to be in BTC ETF’s hence the numbers being massively more dominant there, but not with this catalyst, this would explain the accumulation being seen and the clear motives behind what we have seen recently imo as it’s about positioning for control to these big players.
Based on the above I have been refining my portfolio over the course of the past month, having fewer positions and going bolder in terms of position sizing, I’m 95% risk weighted on Ethereum and the ecosystem, in areas such as RWA, DeFI & GambleFi.
❤15
At the end of the day it all comes down to liquidity, and I’ve spotted something interesting. If you’ve been following my work for years now you will know I used to analyse/cover this stuff a lot, and it allowed me to identify liquidity driven events way ahead of the herd, also one of the biggest banking bets in history they got wrong when they were betting on the US treasury bonds defaulting via CDS swaps.
As of the end of January the $36 trillion US binding debt ceiling was hit, they now cannot issue new debt to help support the financial system. They now need to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling or suspending the debt ceiling like I witnessed in 2023.
Herein lies the opportunity and the liquidity driven event we need for the next move higher.
In the interim until such agreement is made, the treasury general account (TGA) will be used to support the financial system, as of today the balance of that account is $809 billion. I believe around $450 billion of this will be tapered into the markets (injections and pullbacks) by late April as around 1/3 is neededed to meet obligations until an agreement is reached. It’s essentially hidden quantitative easing which everyone wishes was happening right now to fuel the markets higher!
Lastly, I’m monitoring a wide range of financial instruments that are also giving clear signs that a lucrative period/parabolic move is going to come within the space, I will share some of them below:
*The relative strength of the USD (DXY) I believe has put in a structure top at 110.000, a weakening dollar normally means fruitful conditions for risk on markets.
*Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has just made a double top structure having tested the 70.5% fib and forming a bearish engulfing on the weekly timeframe, implying a sharp breakdown is coming soon, again very lucrative for growth in alt coins.
*Gold could very well be putting in a structure top at $2,900-3000, normally this chops about as crypto makes its leg higher. The reason for exponential growth seen in gold recently is there’s speculation that there’s not enough bullion to back paper obligations, essentially making it more valuable based on scarcity, D.Trump announced on Friday that he is debating auditing Fort Knox (where the US keep their gold reserves). Someone who is worried about the reserves doesn’t even address the perceived issue publicly if there’s validity to the issue imo.
*Global liquidity has risen for 5 straight weeks now, rising from $80 to $81.7 trillion backtesting the pennant breakout and it looks ripe for expansion, implying a liquidity driven event is coming very soon.
*The reverse repo facility at the federal reserve (FED) is almost depleted, essentially meaning banks cannot lend bonds and the yield from them and repay later at an agreed upon date, when this facility is depleted it puts further strain on financial conditions, also implying there’s going to be a liquidity driven event coming soon.
In summary:
I stand behind my longstanding projections that Q1/Q2 will be the mania phase of the market, and a risk assessment/portfolio adjusting will need to take place then. Everything is pointing to this being likely in my opinion.
Now is the time to position yourself accordingly if you haven’t already done so, and sit on your hands being patient as a big move is brewing. 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jfbRYUYQ/
As of the end of January the $36 trillion US binding debt ceiling was hit, they now cannot issue new debt to help support the financial system. They now need to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling or suspending the debt ceiling like I witnessed in 2023.
Herein lies the opportunity and the liquidity driven event we need for the next move higher.
In the interim until such agreement is made, the treasury general account (TGA) will be used to support the financial system, as of today the balance of that account is $809 billion. I believe around $450 billion of this will be tapered into the markets (injections and pullbacks) by late April as around 1/3 is neededed to meet obligations until an agreement is reached. It’s essentially hidden quantitative easing which everyone wishes was happening right now to fuel the markets higher!
Lastly, I’m monitoring a wide range of financial instruments that are also giving clear signs that a lucrative period/parabolic move is going to come within the space, I will share some of them below:
*The relative strength of the USD (DXY) I believe has put in a structure top at 110.000, a weakening dollar normally means fruitful conditions for risk on markets.
*Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has just made a double top structure having tested the 70.5% fib and forming a bearish engulfing on the weekly timeframe, implying a sharp breakdown is coming soon, again very lucrative for growth in alt coins.
*Gold could very well be putting in a structure top at $2,900-3000, normally this chops about as crypto makes its leg higher. The reason for exponential growth seen in gold recently is there’s speculation that there’s not enough bullion to back paper obligations, essentially making it more valuable based on scarcity, D.Trump announced on Friday that he is debating auditing Fort Knox (where the US keep their gold reserves). Someone who is worried about the reserves doesn’t even address the perceived issue publicly if there’s validity to the issue imo.
*Global liquidity has risen for 5 straight weeks now, rising from $80 to $81.7 trillion backtesting the pennant breakout and it looks ripe for expansion, implying a liquidity driven event is coming very soon.
*The reverse repo facility at the federal reserve (FED) is almost depleted, essentially meaning banks cannot lend bonds and the yield from them and repay later at an agreed upon date, when this facility is depleted it puts further strain on financial conditions, also implying there’s going to be a liquidity driven event coming soon.
In summary:
I stand behind my longstanding projections that Q1/Q2 will be the mania phase of the market, and a risk assessment/portfolio adjusting will need to take place then. Everything is pointing to this being likely in my opinion.
Now is the time to position yourself accordingly if you haven’t already done so, and sit on your hands being patient as a big move is brewing. 📈
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jfbRYUYQ/
TradingView
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 Chart Image by CoinCaller
❤19🔥5
Dan's Market Updates pinned «Total 2/Important Update: Over the past few weeks I have been collecting my thoughts and making a lot of analytical observations across multiple sectors, both technical and macro economical. My findings have been very interesting, so I’m going to present…»
It has now been 5 months since my last update, at which point global financial markets had just started to become increasingly unstable, especially crypto.
Looking back and comparing to today, my market thesis was pretty solid:
* I was increasingly confident in Ethereum and its ecosystems performance (hence me being 95% spot risk weighed there in RWA, DeFI & GambleFi.) at a time where the sentiment on it was the worst its EVER been, this positioning is now looking extremely promising.
*I gave a compelling argument along with hard data and catalyst predictions as to why the market was going to go on a strong rally soon, some parts were nailed on and some of which didn’t go to plan.
In hindsight the main issue was the timeline, I was convinced that Q1-Q2 2025 was going to be the mania phase of the market, a longstanding prediction I had and it wasn’t. The saying “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” really came to mind at the time in March/April, when I was seeing swings to the downside comparable to end of cycle moves, and in some instances bear market lows being breached on everything outside of Bitcoin, it was wild to see even just sat in spot like myself.
Current thoughts
The market is very interesting right now, it seems like we are at a further infliction point where alts are concerned. As Bitcoin has slowed down and dominance has had a sharp drop over the past couple of weeks, if your alt positions haven’t outperformed the likes of ETH or SOL as an example (basically top alts) during this time they need to be cut imo and rotated into the clear winners, the only exception to this would be if they have very good HTF chart structures that imply they are going to rally hard soon and have catalysts coming. Oversaturation is still massive, not everything is going to the moon.
I’m very bullish on the likes of RWA, DeFI, GambleFi & Stablecoin infrastructure segments of the market, basically anything that solves a problem or provides a better mouse trap in this space, tangible companies behind the technology in play that are earning good revenue ideally, and teams that have a clear vision relayed to the community with the track record of being able to execute.
To me its clear as day we are entering a new phase for the market, probably one that will be less cyclical and controlled more like the stock market. Retail traders are getting pushed out and the big players like the banks and financial institutions are quietly seizing control, they always do. Excitement/Hype given where the market is at right now just seems SO quiet in my circles and on X, which is a clear indicator of this transition.
The average person doesn’t own any Bitcoin unless they got in circa 2020, and most people will have panic sold their positions in top alts during crazy dips a few months ago, now that everything is pumping heading into summer months (often the worst months for crypto) they are sidelined and can’t do anything regardless, hence the no Excitement/Hype.
Looking back and comparing to today, my market thesis was pretty solid:
* I was increasingly confident in Ethereum and its ecosystems performance (hence me being 95% spot risk weighed there in RWA, DeFI & GambleFi.) at a time where the sentiment on it was the worst its EVER been, this positioning is now looking extremely promising.
*I gave a compelling argument along with hard data and catalyst predictions as to why the market was going to go on a strong rally soon, some parts were nailed on and some of which didn’t go to plan.
In hindsight the main issue was the timeline, I was convinced that Q1-Q2 2025 was going to be the mania phase of the market, a longstanding prediction I had and it wasn’t. The saying “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” really came to mind at the time in March/April, when I was seeing swings to the downside comparable to end of cycle moves, and in some instances bear market lows being breached on everything outside of Bitcoin, it was wild to see even just sat in spot like myself.
Current thoughts
The market is very interesting right now, it seems like we are at a further infliction point where alts are concerned. As Bitcoin has slowed down and dominance has had a sharp drop over the past couple of weeks, if your alt positions haven’t outperformed the likes of ETH or SOL as an example (basically top alts) during this time they need to be cut imo and rotated into the clear winners, the only exception to this would be if they have very good HTF chart structures that imply they are going to rally hard soon and have catalysts coming. Oversaturation is still massive, not everything is going to the moon.
I’m very bullish on the likes of RWA, DeFI, GambleFi & Stablecoin infrastructure segments of the market, basically anything that solves a problem or provides a better mouse trap in this space, tangible companies behind the technology in play that are earning good revenue ideally, and teams that have a clear vision relayed to the community with the track record of being able to execute.
To me its clear as day we are entering a new phase for the market, probably one that will be less cyclical and controlled more like the stock market. Retail traders are getting pushed out and the big players like the banks and financial institutions are quietly seizing control, they always do. Excitement/Hype given where the market is at right now just seems SO quiet in my circles and on X, which is a clear indicator of this transition.
The average person doesn’t own any Bitcoin unless they got in circa 2020, and most people will have panic sold their positions in top alts during crazy dips a few months ago, now that everything is pumping heading into summer months (often the worst months for crypto) they are sidelined and can’t do anything regardless, hence the no Excitement/Hype.
❤26🔥3
My strategy at the moment is to keep tabs on positions that I have, and ride the price fluctuations sat in spot until towards the end of the year, whilst trading memecoins on chain when opportunities present themselves and I have time. Rather than gauging individual asset prices for exits I am keeping an eye on a basket of metrics to determine when to move into cash, examples being ETH/BTC, BTC.D, Stablecoin dominance, Global liquidity, open interest on alts and ETF numbers (ETH ETF’s by the way had their largest ever single day inflow yesterday at $726m).
I think global economic conditions at the moment are uncertain, now is the time to speculate and be reactionary. Assuming there’s not something crazy like another tariff war or ww, its really just going to come down to monetary policies, which is just another day in the office so to speak, basically saying the worst is probably behind us, at least in the short term. As it stands there’s speculation on one hand around cutting interest rates massively, J.Powell resigning etc. which will likely skyrocket the markets in the short term but cause devastation in the medium-long term. On the other hand speculation about raising rates again given the recent inflation number came out higher than expected, this scenario likely nukes the market short term but helps in the medium-long term.
Final thoughts
Holding strong and being patient. 💪 📈
I believe the mania phase for alts with Ethereum leading the way is in the not too distant future, key level on ETH/BTC I’m hawking is 0.03 which coincides with dynamic resistance for the past couple of years, if it breaks its game on.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXd5V15B/
I think global economic conditions at the moment are uncertain, now is the time to speculate and be reactionary. Assuming there’s not something crazy like another tariff war or ww, its really just going to come down to monetary policies, which is just another day in the office so to speak, basically saying the worst is probably behind us, at least in the short term. As it stands there’s speculation on one hand around cutting interest rates massively, J.Powell resigning etc. which will likely skyrocket the markets in the short term but cause devastation in the medium-long term. On the other hand speculation about raising rates again given the recent inflation number came out higher than expected, this scenario likely nukes the market short term but helps in the medium-long term.
Final thoughts
Holding strong and being patient. 💪 📈
I believe the mania phase for alts with Ethereum leading the way is in the not too distant future, key level on ETH/BTC I’m hawking is 0.03 which coincides with dynamic resistance for the past couple of years, if it breaks its game on.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cXd5V15B/
TradingView
BINANCE:ETHBTC Chart Image by CoinCaller
❤24🔥4👍1
Dan's Market Updates pinned «It has now been 5 months since my last update, at which point global financial markets had just started to become increasingly unstable, especially crypto. Looking back and comparing to today, my market thesis was pretty solid: * I was increasingly confident…»
Dan's Market Updates
TG.CASINO ($TGC) 1D Update: I initially invested in TGC in May and it’s quickly becoming one of my highest conviction investments. I initially bought at $0.23 (as per the review) but have kept buying aggressively in chunks (white arrows) as the data simply…
TG.CASINO ($TGC) 3D- Update
It has now been 14 months since I made my initial investment in TG.CASINO at $0.23, price has remained relatively suppressed like everything in the GambleFi category so I have continued to accumulate.
When others have been fearful I have been greedy, which in result has allowed me to quadruple my original position size. This is not blind greed, I am extremely confident in this bet and the progress this bet represents.
Firstly, lets delve into TG.CASINO specifically and the progress they have made since I made the investment in May 2024:
*$1bn>$3bn wagered on the platform
*17,000 users>44,850 users
*$90m in deposits>$356m in deposits
*Total supply reduced from 86m> 80m
*Supply staked 57%>75.3%
*Completed 5 seasons of airdrops totalling over $10m USD given back to its player base, with more seasons ongoing and to be expected in the future.
*$1.2m given out to stakers in weekly profit shares, and $800k allocated to buyback tokens on the open market and burn them.
*NFT seasonal rewards live for NFT holders, rewards given every quarter. I have had $7.5k, $2.5k and $2.5k to play with on the platform from this.
*Secured a CEX listing with BitMart, with other listings supposedly in the pipeline. Main competitors valued at much higher market caps like Rollbit haven’t even managed to achieve this.
*Staking infrastructure has now been changed, a massive reason why the price has been so suppressed is because there were emissions, $TGC tokens being given out as rewards in the high APY staking pools and introducer rewards which then were sold. As of May 2025 this changed, its now one pool with a 3 month lock and rewards are solely paid in $USDC so there’s no artificial sell pressure occurring, you either have to buy the tokens to have them to sell, or you win more if your lucky by wagering the tokens you have bought in the casino.
Secondly, let’s delve into the GambleFi sector:
A part of Trumps big beautiful bill that’s going into force in 2026, it’s stated that they are now taxing losses in the US, so as an example if you made $100k profit and then lost it you’d owe $10k in taxes (so 10%) which you could previously offset at 1:1 on your tax return but it’s now 1:0.9
Obviously this is a significant change to the industry that’s estimated to be a size of $66.5 billion in the US alone. My thought process on this is it should encourage US players to transition to online sites, based in preferential tax jurisdictions or sites that allow anonymity, like TG.CASINO
As it stands the GambleFi category in crypto is valued at a tiny $750m market cap…
Conclusion:
I am as confident as ever in this dual sided bet, I believe the GambleFi sector of the crypto market is going to explode and TG.CASINO will be at the forefront of this growth.
The team and their ability to execute, the unique user experience with anonymity/playing through Telegram and the player incentives is a perfect concoction for a massive repricing being on the horizon. 📈
It has now been 14 months since I made my initial investment in TG.CASINO at $0.23, price has remained relatively suppressed like everything in the GambleFi category so I have continued to accumulate.
When others have been fearful I have been greedy, which in result has allowed me to quadruple my original position size. This is not blind greed, I am extremely confident in this bet and the progress this bet represents.
Firstly, lets delve into TG.CASINO specifically and the progress they have made since I made the investment in May 2024:
*$1bn>$3bn wagered on the platform
*17,000 users>44,850 users
*$90m in deposits>$356m in deposits
*Total supply reduced from 86m> 80m
*Supply staked 57%>75.3%
*Completed 5 seasons of airdrops totalling over $10m USD given back to its player base, with more seasons ongoing and to be expected in the future.
*$1.2m given out to stakers in weekly profit shares, and $800k allocated to buyback tokens on the open market and burn them.
*NFT seasonal rewards live for NFT holders, rewards given every quarter. I have had $7.5k, $2.5k and $2.5k to play with on the platform from this.
*Secured a CEX listing with BitMart, with other listings supposedly in the pipeline. Main competitors valued at much higher market caps like Rollbit haven’t even managed to achieve this.
*Staking infrastructure has now been changed, a massive reason why the price has been so suppressed is because there were emissions, $TGC tokens being given out as rewards in the high APY staking pools and introducer rewards which then were sold. As of May 2025 this changed, its now one pool with a 3 month lock and rewards are solely paid in $USDC so there’s no artificial sell pressure occurring, you either have to buy the tokens to have them to sell, or you win more if your lucky by wagering the tokens you have bought in the casino.
Secondly, let’s delve into the GambleFi sector:
A part of Trumps big beautiful bill that’s going into force in 2026, it’s stated that they are now taxing losses in the US, so as an example if you made $100k profit and then lost it you’d owe $10k in taxes (so 10%) which you could previously offset at 1:1 on your tax return but it’s now 1:0.9
Obviously this is a significant change to the industry that’s estimated to be a size of $66.5 billion in the US alone. My thought process on this is it should encourage US players to transition to online sites, based in preferential tax jurisdictions or sites that allow anonymity, like TG.CASINO
As it stands the GambleFi category in crypto is valued at a tiny $750m market cap…
Conclusion:
I am as confident as ever in this dual sided bet, I believe the GambleFi sector of the crypto market is going to explode and TG.CASINO will be at the forefront of this growth.
The team and their ability to execute, the unique user experience with anonymity/playing through Telegram and the player incentives is a perfect concoction for a massive repricing being on the horizon. 📈
❤30🔥5
BTC 1W/Market Update
The big question: have we bottomed?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $70.5k after dropping to $60k a month ago, enjoying a relief bounce upwards after 6 straight weeks of red weekly price action prior.
There’s a small percentage chance that $60k was the macro bottom but no confirmation yet imo, macro bottom structures typically build a base over several weeks/months with multiple aggressive downswing attempts on high volume, assets change hands and buy side liquidity remains vigilant hence a bottom.
The mass consensus in the market however is we are going waaaayyyyy lower from here, ultimately eluding to this conclusion based on prior cycle peak to lows (for reference I have put this on the BTC chart displayed) this would take BTC to about $28k in late October 2026, this outlook is foolish imo and I will explain why below.
Last cycles bear market we had:
*The Russia/Ukraine war which started in February 2022, creating mass fear and uncertainty.
*Terra/Luna collapse in May 2022, a $50bn asset effectively going to 0 in May 2022.
*Three Arrows Capital (3AC) a cryptocurrency hedge fund founded in 2012 going insolvent for $3bn and forced to liquidate in June 2022.
*The cryptocurrency exchange FTX bankruptcy in November 2022, who’d been missapropriately using customer funds and resulted in an $8bn hole in their books.
This was a brutal series of chain reactions, mainly industry specific which ultimately gave us our macro bottom.
Comparing last cycles bear market to the current, how does that stack up? Not even close.
Current bear market:
We have had the liquidation cascade of 10/10/2025 which is still murky as to why that happened, but if I was pointing fingers it was the market maker Wintermute doing a coordinated liquidity extraction with the exchanges, to ensure financial operating runway until the industry actually expands/grows. This makes sense to me given a lot of OG alts falling below their prior cycle bear market lows.
Israel & US vs Iran conflict which started 28/02/2026, we are like a week into this and Irans top leadership has been taken out, munitions and military equipment running low and navy has been destroyed, Israel and US heating up their efforts according to reports, looking like logically this will draw to a close in the near future.
That’s literally it, so unless something drastically goes wrong we are much closer to a macro bottom than people think.
My views on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market & market drivers in the short-medium term:
I think that Bitcoin puts in its macro bottom at the beginning of April at around $58k after multiple retests and proceeds to slow climb towards the ATH by Q4 2026, This lines up with key momentum HTF swing fibs, prior cycle ATH vicinity, 50MA acting as dynamic support etc.
Similar story for other large scale alts like Ethereum, SOL etc due to continued institutional ETF implementation and AI infrastructure capitalisation.
You’ve got Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, the two largest advocates for Ethereum and Bitcoin currently sitting in -$7bn and beyond unrealized losses and yet they continue to buy in these areas which is a good sign.
Regular ETF demand is also looking solid, seeing large daily inflows quite regularly which wouldn’t be seen if we weren’t close to a bottom imo, in play leverage also remains incredibly low which is often seen towards bottoms.
We are starting to see this in the US already but expecting global unemployment to climb aggressively as companies get leaner with implementing AI agents and tools, the higher the unemployment the greater risks are being taken in the markets as people are forced to make moves imo.
Blockchain is optimal for this AI growth with verified endpoints like x402 coming into play.
My money is on the following sectors:
*Revenue generating services/Real world assets (RWA)
*GambleFI
*AI infrastructure
*Bottomed charts on longstanding memes with high RR
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GoLT2WLR/
The big question: have we bottomed?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $70.5k after dropping to $60k a month ago, enjoying a relief bounce upwards after 6 straight weeks of red weekly price action prior.
There’s a small percentage chance that $60k was the macro bottom but no confirmation yet imo, macro bottom structures typically build a base over several weeks/months with multiple aggressive downswing attempts on high volume, assets change hands and buy side liquidity remains vigilant hence a bottom.
The mass consensus in the market however is we are going waaaayyyyy lower from here, ultimately eluding to this conclusion based on prior cycle peak to lows (for reference I have put this on the BTC chart displayed) this would take BTC to about $28k in late October 2026, this outlook is foolish imo and I will explain why below.
Last cycles bear market we had:
*The Russia/Ukraine war which started in February 2022, creating mass fear and uncertainty.
*Terra/Luna collapse in May 2022, a $50bn asset effectively going to 0 in May 2022.
*Three Arrows Capital (3AC) a cryptocurrency hedge fund founded in 2012 going insolvent for $3bn and forced to liquidate in June 2022.
*The cryptocurrency exchange FTX bankruptcy in November 2022, who’d been missapropriately using customer funds and resulted in an $8bn hole in their books.
This was a brutal series of chain reactions, mainly industry specific which ultimately gave us our macro bottom.
Comparing last cycles bear market to the current, how does that stack up? Not even close.
Current bear market:
We have had the liquidation cascade of 10/10/2025 which is still murky as to why that happened, but if I was pointing fingers it was the market maker Wintermute doing a coordinated liquidity extraction with the exchanges, to ensure financial operating runway until the industry actually expands/grows. This makes sense to me given a lot of OG alts falling below their prior cycle bear market lows.
Israel & US vs Iran conflict which started 28/02/2026, we are like a week into this and Irans top leadership has been taken out, munitions and military equipment running low and navy has been destroyed, Israel and US heating up their efforts according to reports, looking like logically this will draw to a close in the near future.
That’s literally it, so unless something drastically goes wrong we are much closer to a macro bottom than people think.
My views on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency market & market drivers in the short-medium term:
I think that Bitcoin puts in its macro bottom at the beginning of April at around $58k after multiple retests and proceeds to slow climb towards the ATH by Q4 2026, This lines up with key momentum HTF swing fibs, prior cycle ATH vicinity, 50MA acting as dynamic support etc.
Similar story for other large scale alts like Ethereum, SOL etc due to continued institutional ETF implementation and AI infrastructure capitalisation.
You’ve got Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, the two largest advocates for Ethereum and Bitcoin currently sitting in -$7bn and beyond unrealized losses and yet they continue to buy in these areas which is a good sign.
Regular ETF demand is also looking solid, seeing large daily inflows quite regularly which wouldn’t be seen if we weren’t close to a bottom imo, in play leverage also remains incredibly low which is often seen towards bottoms.
We are starting to see this in the US already but expecting global unemployment to climb aggressively as companies get leaner with implementing AI agents and tools, the higher the unemployment the greater risks are being taken in the markets as people are forced to make moves imo.
Blockchain is optimal for this AI growth with verified endpoints like x402 coming into play.
My money is on the following sectors:
*Revenue generating services/Real world assets (RWA)
*GambleFI
*AI infrastructure
*Bottomed charts on longstanding memes with high RR
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GoLT2WLR/
TradingView
KUCOIN:BTCUSDT Chart Image by CoinCaller
❤8🔥2
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