Every major crash since 1996 followed a similar pattern:
S&P500 hits a new high, the yield curve inverts and recovers, the Fed cuts rates, and the market falls.
Dot-com crash, 2008 Financial crisis, Pandemic.
In 2026, the Yield curve has exited a deep inversion, the Fed has been slowly cutting rates.
Is this time different?
S&P500 hits a new high, the yield curve inverts and recovers, the Fed cuts rates, and the market falls.
Dot-com crash, 2008 Financial crisis, Pandemic.
In 2026, the Yield curve has exited a deep inversion, the Fed has been slowly cutting rates.
Is this time different?
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The global payments race isn’t one-dimensional.
Visa leads on scale, with the largest projected revenue base
Mastercard follows as a strong scaled operator
PayPal trails on both growth and size
Circle stands out with hyper-growth, but from a smaller base
Different business models. Different growth paths.
Which one matters more: scale or growth?
Visa leads on scale, with the largest projected revenue base
Mastercard follows as a strong scaled operator
PayPal trails on both growth and size
Circle stands out with hyper-growth, but from a smaller base
Different business models. Different growth paths.
Which one matters more: scale or growth?
Visa reports fastest revenue growth since 2022
Q2 FY26 Net Revenue: $11.2B, +17% YoY
Net Income: $6B, +32% YoY
EPS: $3.31, +20% YoY
The standout - Other Revenue surged 41% YoY due to the firm's expansion in value-added services and its Visa as a Service stack.
The board authorized a $20B buyback.
The stock rallies.
Explore Leverage Shares 2x Long Visa ETP
Q2 FY26 Net Revenue: $11.2B, +17% YoY
Net Income: $6B, +32% YoY
EPS: $3.31, +20% YoY
The standout - Other Revenue surged 41% YoY due to the firm's expansion in value-added services and its Visa as a Service stack.
The board authorized a $20B buyback.
The stock rallies.
Explore Leverage Shares 2x Long Visa ETP
🪙 Public companies now hold more than 1.2M BTC worth around $100B, with governments controlling another 619K BTC.
Bitcoin adoption is no longer just retail-driven. Corporations, sovereigns, and institutions are shaping the market structure.
Strategy alone holds 818.3K BTC, while the U.S. government remains the largest sovereign holder.
Bitcoin adoption is no longer just retail-driven. Corporations, sovereigns, and institutions are shaping the market structure.
Strategy alone holds 818.3K BTC, while the U.S. government remains the largest sovereign holder.
Not all rallies are broad rallies.
The S&P 500 is up +8.2% in 2026, but beneath the surface the divergence has been extreme.
- 99 stocks are up more than 20%
- 100 stocks are trading within ±5%
- 63 stocks are down at least 20%
Some of the biggest movers so far:
- SanDisk +539.4%
- Intel +230.7%
- AMD +107.9%
- Palantir -24.0%
This has become a market of stock pickers rather than index followers.
The S&P 500 is up +8.2% in 2026, but beneath the surface the divergence has been extreme.
- 99 stocks are up more than 20%
- 100 stocks are trading within ±5%
- 63 stocks are down at least 20%
Some of the biggest movers so far:
- SanDisk +539.4%
- Intel +230.7%
- AMD +107.9%
- Palantir -24.0%
This has become a market of stock pickers rather than index followers.
Despite overseeing a $263B equity portfolio, Warren Buffett continues to bet heavily on a surprisingly small number of companies.
Warren Buffett’s portfolio remains highly concentrated, with Apple still representing the largest position at 22% of Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosed equity holdings in Q1 2026.
American Express and Coca-Cola continue to rank among the firm’s core long-term positions, while financials and energy maintain a significant weighting across the portfolio.
Top holdings by value:
◾ Apple ($AAPL): $57.8B
◾ American Express ($AXP): $45.8B
◾ Coca-Cola ($KO): $30.4B
◾ Bank of America ($BAC): $25B
◾ Chevron ($CVX): $17.5B
Total disclosed equity portfolio value reached approximately $263.1B in Q1 2026.
What stands out most is Buffett’s continued preference for high-conviction concentration over broad diversification, with the top five positions accounting for the majority of the portfolio.
#MarketingCommunication
Warren Buffett’s portfolio remains highly concentrated, with Apple still representing the largest position at 22% of Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosed equity holdings in Q1 2026.
American Express and Coca-Cola continue to rank among the firm’s core long-term positions, while financials and energy maintain a significant weighting across the portfolio.
Top holdings by value:
◾ Apple ($AAPL): $57.8B
◾ American Express ($AXP): $45.8B
◾ Coca-Cola ($KO): $30.4B
◾ Bank of America ($BAC): $25B
◾ Chevron ($CVX): $17.5B
Total disclosed equity portfolio value reached approximately $263.1B in Q1 2026.
What stands out most is Buffett’s continued preference for high-conviction concentration over broad diversification, with the top five positions accounting for the majority of the portfolio.
#MarketingCommunication
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Intel made up over half of Nvidia’s public equity portfolio in Q1 2026, with the chip giant also holding sizable stakes in CoreWeave, Synopsys, Coherent Corp, and Nokia.
The full portfolio reached $18.37B in value, highlighting Nvidia’s exposure across semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and telecom.
Which holding surprises you most?
The full portfolio reached $18.37B in value, highlighting Nvidia’s exposure across semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and telecom.
Which holding surprises you most?
Kevin Warsh’s reported net worth would place him far above previous modern Fed chairs at the time of nomination.
From Paul Volcker’s estimated $142K in 1979 to Jerome Powell’s reported $112.3M in 2017, the scale of wealth tied to Federal Reserve leadership has shifted dramatically over time.
Warsh’s estimated US$131M-209M range would set a new high if nominated in 2026.
From Paul Volcker’s estimated $142K in 1979 to Jerome Powell’s reported $112.3M in 2017, the scale of wealth tied to Federal Reserve leadership has shifted dramatically over time.
Warsh’s estimated US$131M-209M range would set a new high if nominated in 2026.
An ex-OpenAI Researcher Is Betting On Energy, Not AI
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Q1 2026 13F filing highlights a bearish bet on semiconductors and cloud infrastructure.
The researcher’s portfolio consists of a large put positions against famous AI names - VanEck Semiconductor ETF ($2.0B), NVIDIA ($1.6B), Oracle ($1.1B), Broadcom ($1.0B), AMD ($1.0B), ASML ($0.5B), and Intel ($0.2B) - while maintaining spread positions on Micron ($0.6B put / $0.4B call) and TSMC ($0.5B put / $0.4B call).
On the other side, the fund goes long on storage and energy infrastructure: SanDisk ($0.7B long + $0.4B call), Bloom Energy ($0.9B), CoreWeave ($0.6B long + $0.1B call), IREN ($0.4B).
As models become larger and more compute intensive, the real scarcity may be found in megawatts and storage capacity rather than chips or software licenses.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Q1 2026 13F filing highlights a bearish bet on semiconductors and cloud infrastructure.
The researcher’s portfolio consists of a large put positions against famous AI names - VanEck Semiconductor ETF ($2.0B), NVIDIA ($1.6B), Oracle ($1.1B), Broadcom ($1.0B), AMD ($1.0B), ASML ($0.5B), and Intel ($0.2B) - while maintaining spread positions on Micron ($0.6B put / $0.4B call) and TSMC ($0.5B put / $0.4B call).
On the other side, the fund goes long on storage and energy infrastructure: SanDisk ($0.7B long + $0.4B call), Bloom Energy ($0.9B), CoreWeave ($0.6B long + $0.1B call), IREN ($0.4B).
As models become larger and more compute intensive, the real scarcity may be found in megawatts and storage capacity rather than chips or software licenses.
NVIDIA’s China revenue contribution has fallen from 25% to just 6% of total sales following successive US export restrictions.
Yet Jensen Huang still sees a potential $50B opportunity if H20 sales reopen between Washington and Beijing.
Meanwhile, the US now accounts for 78% of reported revenue as AI infrastructure spending accelerates domestically.
Yet Jensen Huang still sees a potential $50B opportunity if H20 sales reopen between Washington and Beijing.
Meanwhile, the US now accounts for 78% of reported revenue as AI infrastructure spending accelerates domestically.
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