Evan @EvanWritesOnX
If the pragmatists are the dominant faction in Iran,
which I think they are,
then this whole Lebanon inclusion/exclusion ambiguity as part of the ceasefire is a very straight forward analysis.
The pragmatists do not need Lebanon in the ceasefire to protect Hezbollah.
It's the opposite.
They need Hezbollah locked in attrition with Israel.
Your dominant strategy as a pragmatist, is about ending the war, getting sanctions relief, unfreezing assets, reopening oil exports, and rebuilding.
Hezbollah is not an asset to protect in that equation.
Hezbollah is a liability to manage and eventually a card to play.
So what was Iran actually doing when they insisted Lebanon be included?
Simple.
If Lebanon is in the ceasefire text, Iran walks into Saturday's talks with a chip it can offer to give up in exchange for something it actually cares about,
like sanctions relief or enrichment rights or asset unfreezing or reconstruction compensation.
You do not put something in an agreement because you plan to die on that hill.
You put it in because you plan to trade it.
The pragmatists wanted Lebanon on the table so they could take it off the table at a price.
🗣 This also explains why Iran's response to the massive Israeli strikes on Lebanon has been loud but calibrated.
Oil tankers were "suspended" from passing through Hormuz. Everything was said except the fact that Iran was withdrawing from the ceasefire.
Every Iranian statement has left the door open.
That is not the behavior of a state that has been genuinely blindsided and is about to escalate.
👇
That is the behavior of a faction that expected something like this, is publicly outraged for optics purposes, and is now waiting to see what price the outrage fetches.
The pragmatists need this war to end quickly, and they need it to end with a deal they can present as a victory for the Iranian state, not for the resistance axis.
Hezbollah getting hit hard in Lebanon actually serves the pragmatist agenda in a perverse way.
If Hezbollah is degraded by Israel during the ceasefire period, the pragmatists do not have to do the politically costly work of sidelining it themselves.
Israel does it for them.
https://x.com/EvanWritesOnX/status/2042193427023159413
✡️ @JewishTruthArchive
If the pragmatists are the dominant faction in Iran,
which I think they are,
then this whole Lebanon inclusion/exclusion ambiguity as part of the ceasefire is a very straight forward analysis.
The pragmatists do not need Lebanon in the ceasefire to protect Hezbollah.
It's the opposite.
They need Hezbollah locked in attrition with Israel.
Your dominant strategy as a pragmatist, is about ending the war, getting sanctions relief, unfreezing assets, reopening oil exports, and rebuilding.
Hezbollah is not an asset to protect in that equation.
Hezbollah is a liability to manage and eventually a card to play.
So what was Iran actually doing when they insisted Lebanon be included?
Simple.
If Lebanon is in the ceasefire text, Iran walks into Saturday's talks with a chip it can offer to give up in exchange for something it actually cares about,
like sanctions relief or enrichment rights or asset unfreezing or reconstruction compensation.
You do not put something in an agreement because you plan to die on that hill.
You put it in because you plan to trade it.
The pragmatists wanted Lebanon on the table so they could take it off the table at a price.
Oil tankers were "suspended" from passing through Hormuz. Everything was said except the fact that Iran was withdrawing from the ceasefire.
Every Iranian statement has left the door open.
That is not the behavior of a state that has been genuinely blindsided and is about to escalate.
That is the behavior of a faction that expected something like this, is publicly outraged for optics purposes, and is now waiting to see what price the outrage fetches.
The pragmatists need this war to end quickly, and they need it to end with a deal they can present as a victory for the Iranian state, not for the resistance axis.
Hezbollah getting hit hard in Lebanon actually serves the pragmatist agenda in a perverse way.
If Hezbollah is degraded by Israel during the ceasefire period, the pragmatists do not have to do the politically costly work of sidelining it themselves.
Israel does it for them.
https://x.com/EvanWritesOnX/status/2042193427023159413
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Forwarded from Warren Balogh
ZOG is going to sacrifice people for this failure. At the head of the line is Pete Hegseth, whose entire existence screams "fall guy"... which he probably doesn't mind. He'll just go back to the private sector and be rich. Rubio is on the line... that NYT article was obviously trying to salvage him. They are desperate to preserve Vance, otherwise this war wipes out everyone on the Right except Tucker Carlson.
What is most interesting to me is what will happen with Trump himself. The Jews may just turn on him after this. They may turn on Netanyahu as well, blaming him for this disaster. I wonder if we might finally see the Epstein blackmail stuff revealed, just to punish Trump for his failure.
World Jewry is not an autocracy, it's a collective, and they are certainly willing to cut off any rotten branches to keep the evil tree growing. They also have zero loyalty to their goyish pawns.
What is most interesting to me is what will happen with Trump himself. The Jews may just turn on him after this. They may turn on Netanyahu as well, blaming him for this disaster. I wonder if we might finally see the Epstein blackmail stuff revealed, just to punish Trump for his failure.
World Jewry is not an autocracy, it's a collective, and they are certainly willing to cut off any rotten branches to keep the evil tree growing. They also have zero loyalty to their goyish pawns.
Forwarded from Meme Cannons (Mememar)
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This is possibly the greatest meme of all time.
Summary
⛴ IRGC wants ships to pass near Iranian island, Tasnim reports
⚡️ Traffic well below 10% of normal volumes
🛢 Oil crisis worsens as fifth of global supply still disrupted
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stood at well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while doing so.
Hundreds of tankers and other ships have been stuck inside the Gulf since the Iran war began on Feb 28, cutting global oil supply by 20% in the world's biggest-ever supply disruption.
Prices for some physical oil grades hit fresh all-time highs on Thursday as the crisis showed little signs of abating.
Iran must open the strait without conditions, the CEO of UAE state oil giant ADNOC said on Thursday.
Just seven ships had passed through the strait in the past 24 hours versus about 140 normally, ship-tracking data showed.
They included one oil products tanker and six dry bulk carriers, data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Signal Ocean showed.
A chemical tanker was set to cross destined for India, ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic and Pole Star Global platforms showed.
"Most shipping lines are likely to remain cautious, and two weeks will not be enough to clear the backlog even if there is a marked increase in traffic," said Torbjorn Soltvedt at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have told vessels to sail through Iranian waters around Larak Island to avoid the risk of naval mines in the usual lanes through the strait, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.
Read More [HERE]
✡️ @JewishTruthArchive
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stood at well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while doing so.
Hundreds of tankers and other ships have been stuck inside the Gulf since the Iran war began on Feb 28, cutting global oil supply by 20% in the world's biggest-ever supply disruption.
Prices for some physical oil grades hit fresh all-time highs on Thursday as the crisis showed little signs of abating.
Iran must open the strait without conditions, the CEO of UAE state oil giant ADNOC said on Thursday.
Just seven ships had passed through the strait in the past 24 hours versus about 140 normally, ship-tracking data showed.
They included one oil products tanker and six dry bulk carriers, data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Signal Ocean showed.
A chemical tanker was set to cross destined for India, ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic and Pole Star Global platforms showed.
"Most shipping lines are likely to remain cautious, and two weeks will not be enough to clear the backlog even if there is a marked increase in traffic," said Torbjorn Soltvedt at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have told vessels to sail through Iranian waters around Larak Island to avoid the risk of naval mines in the usual lanes through the strait, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday.
Read More [HERE]
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MTG just absolutely torched the Republican Party as corrupt “liars” and “failures.”
“Hold people accountable, for the love of God!”
“Put Anthony Fauci in jail.”
“Gut the deep state.”
“Republicans are going to get killed in the midterms.”
“And you know what?”
“You can’t blame people for refusing to want to vote for a party that has failed them over and over.”
“Why would you want to keep buying a product that is crap?”
“President Trump is going to be gone soon.”
“And we have to build a future for our children and our grandchildren.”
“I want moral, America First leaders that will put the American people first instead of their own interests or their friends.”
“We have to recognize what a failure the Republican Party is.”
@FmrRepMTG @mtgreenee @RealAlexJones
https://x.com/Holden_Culotta/status/2042235381421129979
✡️ @JewishTruthArchive
“Hold people accountable, for the love of God!”
“Put Anthony Fauci in jail.”
“Gut the deep state.”
“Republicans are going to get killed in the midterms.”
“And you know what?”
“You can’t blame people for refusing to want to vote for a party that has failed them over and over.”
“Why would you want to keep buying a product that is crap?”
“President Trump is going to be gone soon.”
“And we have to build a future for our children and our grandchildren.”
“I want moral, America First leaders that will put the American people first instead of their own interests or their friends.”
“We have to recognize what a failure the Republican Party is.”
@FmrRepMTG @mtgreenee @RealAlexJones
https://x.com/Holden_Culotta/status/2042235381421129979
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Forwarded from Clash Report
The U.S. has lost 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Iran conflict (8 since April), totaling about $720 million.
Source: CBS
Source: CBS
Forwarded from Magic Eight Ball Redux 🎱
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.
It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.
In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
🎱 @MagicEightBallRedux
All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.
It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.
In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi
Netanyahu's criminal trial resumes on Sun.
A region-wide ceasefire, incl in Lebanon, would hasten his jailing.
If the U S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it.
✡️ @JewishTruthArchive
Netanyahu's criminal trial resumes on Sun.
A region-wide ceasefire, incl in Lebanon, would hasten his jailing.
If the U S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it.
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Batya Ungar-Sargon: "The first Jew to step foot on American soil, the first thing he did was sue an official for insulting him—and he won."
Batya Ungar-Sargon: "Only 13% [of Democrats] stand with Israelis against the Palestinians…"
"The thing that makes this so appalling is that Jews built the left in this country. We built the labor movement. We wrote the New Deal. 70% of the lawyers who worked on civil rights cases were Jews!"
"We've been at the forefront of every liberal and leftist issue in this country!"
https://x.com/infolibnews/status/2042210930985943424
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Forwarded from Clash Report
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif:
Israel is evil and a curse for humanity, while peace talks are underway in Islamabad, genocide is being committed in Lebanon.
Innocent citizens are being killed by Israel, first Gaza, then Iran and now Lebanon, bloodletting continues unabated.
I hope and pray people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land to get rid of European jews burn in hell.
Phone conversation between the Foreign Ministers of 🇮🇷 Iran and 🇫🇷 France
🔹️Araghchi:
Unfortunately, we are witnessing a severe violation of the ceasefire and continued brutal attacks by the Israeli regime against Lebanon.
This is while the cessation of aggressors' attacks in the region and Lebanon is an integral part of the ceasefire understanding, which has also been emphasized by the Pakistani mediator.
🔸The French Foreign Minister, while welcoming the cessation of war, expressed hope that with progress in negotiations, we will witness the establishment of stability and lasting peace throughout the region.
He also emphasized the necessity of stopping Israeli attacks against Lebanon.
IRGC Cyber Corps👇🏻
☑️ @SEPAHCYBERY
✡️ @JewTruthArchive
🔹️Araghchi:
Unfortunately, we are witnessing a severe violation of the ceasefire and continued brutal attacks by the Israeli regime against Lebanon.
This is while the cessation of aggressors' attacks in the region and Lebanon is an integral part of the ceasefire understanding, which has also been emphasized by the Pakistani mediator.
🔸The French Foreign Minister, while welcoming the cessation of war, expressed hope that with progress in negotiations, we will witness the establishment of stability and lasting peace throughout the region.
He also emphasized the necessity of stopping Israeli attacks against Lebanon.
IRGC Cyber Corps👇🏻
☑️ @SEPAHCYBERY
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Forwarded from Lord Bebo & Friends (Bebot)
🇩🇪🇵🇱 “German schoolchildren will be sent to concentration camps more often”
— The Daily Mirror
Germany will spend £8.5 million to increase the number of trips to former Nazi camps.
The authorities want to expand school excursions to concentration camp memorials in order to preserve the memory of the Holocaust and fight anti-Semitism.
🔗
Join us | @MyLordBebo
— The Daily Mirror
Germany will spend £8.5 million to increase the number of trips to former Nazi camps.
The authorities want to expand school excursions to concentration camp memorials in order to preserve the memory of the Holocaust and fight anti-Semitism.
🔗
Join us | @MyLordBebo
Forwarded from Megatron
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JUST IN:
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Netanyahu rejects ceasefire once again:
“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon.
We continue to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we restore your security.”
@Megatron_ron
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Netanyahu rejects ceasefire once again:
“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon.
We continue to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we restore your security.”
@Megatron_ron
Just three ships over 10,000 dwt transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning with a further three Iran-linked vessels, including one sanctioned very large crude carrier, tracked transiting the strait on Thursday afternoon.
Read More [HERE]
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Israeli minister Ben Smotrich has OFFICIALLY announced the start of the "Greater Israel" project.
Finance Minister of Israel Bezalel Smotrich announces that Israel will begin expanding its borders into Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, in alignment with the Greater Israel Project.
He says this is the only viable solution to ensure Israel is well protected.
He adds that many more settlements will be established in the near future.
"There will be a lot of work for all of us after the war."
....
They’ve been telling you for years, all you had to do to see it was pay attention….
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/2042268645246615750
✡️ @JewishTruthArchive
Finance Minister of Israel Bezalel Smotrich announces that Israel will begin expanding its borders into Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, in alignment with the Greater Israel Project.
He says this is the only viable solution to ensure Israel is well protected.
He adds that many more settlements will be established in the near future.
"There will be a lot of work for all of us after the war."
....
They’ve been telling you for years, all you had to do to see it was pay attention….
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/2042268645246615750
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