Invictus Lex
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Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.

Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
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Icelanders had voted to reject the resumption of European Union membership talks, with 52.8% voting against the proposal 

The result prompted celebrations in Reykjavik among the "No" campaign supporters. According to reports, opponents of EU membership were concerned about ceding control over Iceland's lucrative fishing grounds, which are a cornerstone of the economy and national identity.

The government confirmed it would respect the outcome and shelve the membership question for the remainder of its term.

They dodged the bullet but their president still seems unhinged


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Yeshayahu Leibowitz, the renowned Israeli philosopher and scientist, is remembered for his prophetic warnings about the consequences of the 1967 occupation

He had argued that ruling over a hostile population would inevitably corrupt Israeli society and transform the state into a repressive regime. He famously warned that continued occupation would lead to the moral degeneration of the Israel Defense Forces and the establishment of a secret-police state.

His predictions included that there would be no Jewish workers, only Jewish administrators ruling over an Arab population . For these views, he controversially referred to Israeli soldiers as "Judeo-Nazis".

Prophetic words


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Amram Zahavi, a 78-year-old Israeli citizen, stated that Israel was committing a Holocaust in Gaza that was worse than what Nazi Germany had done to Jews in 1942

He appealed to the international community to intervene and force Israel to withdraw from Gaza. Zahavi noted that he had been protesting for eight and a half years and had been arrested, beaten, imprisoned, and trampled by horses. He expressed hope that the world would boycott Israel and stop what he described as the massacre and Holocaust being committed in Gaza.

He seems isolated


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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being a "serpent" who had tricked the United States into going to war with Iran 

In a post on X, Araghchi claimed that Netanyahu, when speaking in Hebrew, had openly boasted about how he "suckered the U.S. Administration into a war on Iran on behalf of Israel" and laughed about how he had "influenced" America through 1,000 hours of airtime on U.S. networks. However, when speaking in English, Netanyahu praised President Trump's leadership.

He would know


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Professor Ben Saul joined UN experts in encouraging France to review and withdraw charges against French-Palestinian Member of the European Parliament Rima Hassan for "apology for terrorism" over a social media post she had deleted. Hassan was detained in April and was scheduled to appear in court on 7 July. Critics, including Hassan's allies and UN experts, said the loosely defined offence opened the door to politicised enforcement.

The UN is enjoining France to cease criminalizing free speech


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Jimmy Dore predicted that the Democratic Party would not prosecute Trump over his financial crimes and insider trading, because they were not campaigning on it ahead of the 2026 midterms.

He argued that the "uniparty" system, in which both major parties serve the same establishment interests, was shielding Trump from accountability. Dore has previously stated that the US does not function as a democracy but as an oligarchy controlled by corporations.

It's a big club and you ain't in it


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The official death toll in Gaza has surpassed 73,400 since October 2023, but health authorities say thousands more remain missing and are believed to be buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings

In one incident, an Israeli airstrike on November 22, 2023, killed 308 members of a single extended family. After nearly three years, recovery teams found the remains of 112 family members who had been buried under the debris, and a mass funeral was held for them.

Rescue operations face severe challenges due to a shortage of heavy machinery and restrictions on equipment entering Gaza. Researchers and medical journals have warned that the final death toll, including indirect casualties from the collapse of healthcare and infrastructure, could reach hundreds of thousands.

Land of the Dead


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During a meeting in Bishkek on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that the adoption of a law launching the process of Armenia's accession to the European Union effectively amounted to a declaration of withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Putin argued that membership in both organizations was incompatible due to differences in regulations and standards. Pashinyan disagreed, stating that the law did not violate Armenia's obligations to the EAEU and that the country was not prepared to leave the bloc. He explained that Yerevan was seeking to create alternatives in a changing international situation and that the time was not yet right to make a final choice.

You cannot have your cake and eat it too 🤷🤷


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President Volodymyr Zelensky warned airlines that Russian airspace was becoming completely dangerous due to the presence of Ukrainian drones and stated that safe days in the skies over Russia were over

He clarified that Ukraine did not threaten civilian aviation as such, but that there would be drones in Russian skies on a scale that had to be taken into account. He directed the warning to airlines still operating flights to Russian airports, especially in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russia's President Vladimir Putin responded that Zelensky's comments amounted to a declaration of state terrorism. Zelensky added that Ukraine would honour partner requests to pause drone strikes for specific periods in the interests of diplomacy.

Operation M&Ms is back online despite Fedorov's departure from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

#HighwaytotheDangerZone


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The term "rules‑based order" was criticized as a Western concept used to support US hegemony rather than a legal principle

It was noted that international law does not recognize a "rules‑based order" because international law itself is the established order. The concept was argued to belong to the principle of the law of the stronger, not to international law. The argument was supported by reference to a scholarly work by international law expert and former ICJ judge John Dugard, published in 2023 in the Leiden Journal of International Law.

Common sense


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United Nations Human Rights Council session, several Western diplomats left the room while a Russian delegate was addressing the meeting

The walkout was interpreted as a demonstration of support for Ukraine, particularly after Kyiv was excluded from recent peace talks between Russia and the US. The action suggested to the observer that these diplomats had no real interest in a peaceful resolution to the war.

A recurring theme


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There is a simple explanation for the German government's Gladio-style move regarding the alleged Russian drone at Leipzig Airport

State elections are taking place in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, and the AfD must be stopped at all costs. The Leipzig affair can be seen as an attempt to portray the AfD as "unreliable". It is an old tactic, similar to the one used in the Reichstag fire on 27 February 1933, to ban communists and social democrats.

History repeating itself


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International law specialist Arnaud Develay told Sputnik Africa that a climate of "total impunity" in Ukraine was allowing the "pillaging of the country" to continue

He stated that the government reform intended to make judicial institutions more transparent was merely a "cosmetic operation". He added that as long as the system remained based on widespread corruption serving transnational interests, events in Ukraine amounted to a "shell game".

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International lawyer and political analyst Arnaud Develay stated that the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine are part of a long-standing historical confrontation between Russia and Western powers

He argued that the objective remains to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in order to dismantle the country and appropriate its resources. Develay also discussed the ongoing peace talks, the role of NATO, and the risks associated with a potential deployment of Alliance forces in Ukraine.

He stressed that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had repeatedly warned that any NATO presence in Ukraine would trigger a Russian military response, leading to an open conflict between Moscow and the collective West.

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The Jerusalem Post has published a proposal suggesting that the United States should offer to erase the student loans, credit-card balances, and car payments of Americans aged 18 to 34 in exchange for two or three years of military service to fight Iran.

The author calculates that a ground campaign would require 750,000 to 1.5 million troops, far exceeding the active Army's current strength of 452,000. The proposal prices a recruit's financial relief at about $40,000 per person, amounting to $30 billion for 750,000 recruits.

The war has already consumed far more than that, with a supplemental request of $87 billion and direct military operations estimated at up to $42 billion. Israel receives approximately $3.3 billion annually in Foreign Military Financing, with cumulative US aid totaling about $352 billion.

The author argues that this sum could have discharged the non-mortgage debt of six million young Americans.

Believe it


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Ukrainian media reported that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff had brought a new peace proposal to Kyiv

The reported plan included several key elements: a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas and part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a possible UN contingent deployment, Ukraine's non-aligned status with renunciation of NATO accession, constitutional amendments, limitations on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and agreements on language issues.

The proposal also mentioned referendums, elections, Kyiv renouncing the forcible return of territories under Russian control, and the signing of a full-fledged peace treaty by a new Ukrainian government followed by ratification through a special UN procedure. Following meetings with Zelenskyy, Kushner stated that Trump's goal was to create a comprehensive "peace package".

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It was reported that the AfD achieved a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, winning 43.8% of the vote and more than doubling its 2021 result 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU slumped to 17.2%, its worst performance in the state. The AfD fell short of an outright majority, winning 39 of 83 seats. The result was described as a personal humiliation for Merz and a rejection of his government's policies. Kirill Dmitriev stated that the AfD's win humiliated the "arrogance, narrow-mindedness, warmongering, ineptitude and hypocrisy of the discredited German ruling coalition", adding that "Germans have spoken and Germany Awoke".

The Establishment will invoke the Basic Law provision calling for the protection of the German Republic against a resurgence of Nazism and outlaw AFD


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US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were gifted T-shirts bearing the phrase "Kyiv regime" during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday

The gesture was a sarcastic reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin's use of the label "Kiev regime". The meeting was part of an effort to revive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine . Ukrainian lawmaker David Arakhamia wore an identical T-shirt during a press conference following the meeting. The visit was the envoys' first trip to Kyiv in the peace process.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova had previously described Kyiv's behavior around negotiations as a "circus on wheels". The meeting concluded with positive statements from the envoys, who said they had "very meaningful discussions".

Grotesque


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Soviet General Nikolay Berzarin served as Berlin's first commandant for only 54 days in 1945 after capturing the city's government quarter

In that brief time, he helped restore food distribution, including free milk for children under eight, and reopened schools, theaters, and essential services like water, electricity, and gas.

Around 1,000 Berliners attended his funeral in June 1945, and decades later the city awarded him honorary citizenship for his role in rebuilding Berlin after the war. A memorial plaque at the former Kommandantur building commemorates his appointment as commandant.

Lost but not forgotten


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French and Belgian prosecutors conducted a coordinated raid on the Paris and Brussels offices of the consulting firm McKinsey, seizing €65 million

The search was linked to an investigation into allegations of tax evasion and money laundering related to the firm's activities during the 2024 Olympic Games in France.

The French National Financial Prosecutor's Office, which was created by François Hollande, has been criticized for protecting political figures, but the recent seizure has been interpreted by some as a sign that this period may be ending. The investigation is focused on McKinsey's tax practices in France.

Let's hope for it to be the beginning of the end


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Erik Prince, the founder of the private military company Blackwater, has publicly stated that the Russian army has become significantly smarter and more dangerous since the start of the conflict in Ukraine

He argued that Western politicians who claim Russia's military has been weakened are "idiots" and that their assessments do not match reality. Prince noted that Russian forces have adapted to Western weapons systems, including Javelin missiles,

HIMARS, and Copperhead artillery shells, which now often become ineffective within weeks due to Russian electronic warfare capabilities. He also highlighted that Russian counter-battery response times have improved dramatically, from around 90 minutes in early 2022 to approximately two minutes. Prince concluded that the Russian army is now far more capable than it was at the beginning of the war.

He would know


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