In Tehran they see the Lebanon ceasefire as a victory over Israel. Hezbollah has been saved.

The IDF has issued a warning to Lebanese civilians NOT to return to southern Lebanon this time. The Israeli army remains deployed and will continue to respond with force against any Hezbollah threats.

US State Department statement on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire:

🔹️ Non-state armed actors in Lebanon must be disarmed; only the Lebanese security forces are authorized to bear arms.

🔹️ It is the responsibility of the Government of Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah and other non-state armed actors from attacking Lebanon’s neighbors.

🔹️ The ceasefire does not prevent Israel from taking “all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks” – ie. Israel is still free to strike Hezbollah if Hezbollah is presenting a threat.

🔹️ The ceasefire and progress toward a more permanent deal is contingent on Lebanon demonstrating its “ability to assert its sovereignty” over the entire country – ie. taking back control from Hezbollah.

The Jerusalem Marathon got underway earlier this morning.

A senior Hezbollah official tells the American news channel NBC: “We are satisfied with the ceasefire and have no intention to disarm.”

Netblocks still shows a general internet shutdown in Iran, despite some people reporting sporadic access to Google.

Trump: The Strait of Hormuz is open, but the naval blockade of Iran remains until all US demands are met.

Trump says Iran has agreed to hand over its highly-enriched uranium and to never again close the Strait of Hormuz.

Almost immediately after Trump's remarks, an Iranian official tells state media that the regime will close the Strait of Hormuz if the Americans do not lift their naval blockade of Iranian ports.

From an Israeli point of view, Trump is engaging in wishful thinking. Iran is going to hand over its enriched uranium to the US? Iran is going to abandon Hezbollah and Hamas?

Nothing in Iran’s behavior or rhetoric suggests these assertions are true.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf responding to US President Donald Trump’s posts yesterday in relation to the Iran war and negotiations:

1. The US President made seven claims in one hour — and all seven are false.

2. Among these lies, they did not win the war — and they certainly will not achieve anything in negotiations.

3. If the [US naval] blockade continues, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open.

4. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out according to “defined routes” and with Iran’s approval.

5. Whether the Strait is open or closed and what the rules are — is determined on the ground, not on social media.

There is a lot of fog at the moment. Going by Trump's social media posts, one might think the Iranians have fully backed down and are now cooperating with the Americans in a friendly manner.

Iran's top officials say the very opposite is true.

Trump insists America will get Iran's nuclear material, either through agreement or through force.