我與烏克蘭同在，我相信許多香港人也如是。
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略是對民主自由陣營的嚴峻考驗，即我們的盟友將在多大程度上履行捍衛民主和人民的承諾。
許多俄羅斯人民也跟我們一樣抗議入侵行為，但他們被壓迫和噤聲。
如果我們的民主盟友口惠而不實，不做任何具體可見之事，那民主同盟中的伙伴將懷疑那些盟友曾許下的安全承諾和集體責任。
因應局勢，中共政權的牌桌上或會出現兩種可能的方案 — 對他們來說，這是一個可以利用的機會：
一、中共政權將加強與俄羅斯的軍事協調，相互掩護，不斷分散西方及其民主同盟注意力以分擔風險。為此，中共政權可能會對覬覦已久的周邊局勢（例如台灣）採取類似的軍事行動。
二、中共政權會默許俄羅斯，但會給西方留下後門，從而兜售克里姆林宮的溝通管道。因此，中共將在俄羅斯和西方之間獲得斡旋籌碼，以此要求西方不再緊咬中共視為痛點的議題，例如港人、維族、藏人和台灣，以換取中共政權繼續壯大的時間機會。
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略進一步證明，從「冷戰」到「熱戰」的兩極時代，將重新回到國際關係的主舞台。
民主聯盟或西方都在評估烏克蘭是「一次性個別事件」還是「骨牌效應倒下的首張骨牌」，他們應該在多大程度上阻止這種情況擴散，以避免重蹈綏靖納粹的歷史錯誤。集體安全機制（如北約、美日安保同盟）已是底線，烏克蘭和台灣並不在其中，但緊鄰其側。
我們絕對反對戰爭，但和平來之不易，自由民主是無價的，正因為它需要付出代價。
願命運保佑烏克蘭，以及那些支持和平、民主和自由的俄羅斯人民。
鄭文傑
香港民主活動人士
英國港僑協會 創辦人
倫敦，英國
#ukarine #hongkongers #烏克蘭
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略是對民主自由陣營的嚴峻考驗，即我們的盟友將在多大程度上履行捍衛民主和人民的承諾。
許多俄羅斯人民也跟我們一樣抗議入侵行為，但他們被壓迫和噤聲。
如果我們的民主盟友口惠而不實，不做任何具體可見之事，那民主同盟中的伙伴將懷疑那些盟友曾許下的安全承諾和集體責任。
因應局勢，中共政權的牌桌上或會出現兩種可能的方案 — 對他們來說，這是一個可以利用的機會：
一、中共政權將加強與俄羅斯的軍事協調，相互掩護，不斷分散西方及其民主同盟注意力以分擔風險。為此，中共政權可能會對覬覦已久的周邊局勢（例如台灣）採取類似的軍事行動。
二、中共政權會默許俄羅斯，但會給西方留下後門，從而兜售克里姆林宮的溝通管道。因此，中共將在俄羅斯和西方之間獲得斡旋籌碼，以此要求西方不再緊咬中共視為痛點的議題，例如港人、維族、藏人和台灣，以換取中共政權繼續壯大的時間機會。
俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略進一步證明，從「冷戰」到「熱戰」的兩極時代，將重新回到國際關係的主舞台。
民主聯盟或西方都在評估烏克蘭是「一次性個別事件」還是「骨牌效應倒下的首張骨牌」，他們應該在多大程度上阻止這種情況擴散，以避免重蹈綏靖納粹的歷史錯誤。集體安全機制（如北約、美日安保同盟）已是底線，烏克蘭和台灣並不在其中，但緊鄰其側。
我們絕對反對戰爭，但和平來之不易，自由民主是無價的，正因為它需要付出代價。
願命運保佑烏克蘭，以及那些支持和平、民主和自由的俄羅斯人民。
鄭文傑
香港民主活動人士
英國港僑協會 創辦人
倫敦，英國
#ukarine #hongkongers #烏克蘭
Hongkongers in Britain 英國港僑協會 Channel 🇬🇧
我與烏克蘭同在，我相信許多香港人也如是。 俄羅斯對烏克蘭的侵略是對民主自由陣營的嚴峻考驗，即我們的盟友將在多大程度上履行捍衛民主和人民的承諾。 許多俄羅斯人民也跟我們一樣抗議入侵行為，但他們被壓迫和噤聲。 如果我們的民主盟友口惠而不實，不做任何具體可見之事，那民主同盟中的伙伴將懷疑那些盟友曾許下的安全承諾和集體責任。 因應局勢，中共政權的牌桌上或會出現兩種可能的方案 — 對他們來說，這是一個可以利用的機會： 一、中共政權將加強與俄羅斯的軍事協調，相互掩護，不斷分散西方及其民主同盟注意力以分擔風險…
I stand with Ukraine, and I believe many HongKongers will too.
The Russian regime’s aggression over Ukraine is a severe test to the liberal democracies that to how far our allies would live up to the promise that we cherish and safeguard democracy and people as always.
Many Russian people are with us to protest against invasion, but they are suppressed and silenced.
If our democratic allies do nothing concrete and visible but lip service with ‘we will’ attitude, vulnerable partners of the alliance would be casted in doubt of the security promise and collective duty.
Two possible alternative scenarios may be tabled on CCP-controlled Chinese regime due to this crisis – to them, it is rather an opportunity of leveraging:
1.) CCP regime will enhance the military coordination with Russia to cover each other and share the risk by distracting the focus of the West and it’s democratic alliance. To this end, the Chinese regime may wage a similar military action to the neighbouring areas she aims to for a long time, including Taiwan.
2.) CCP regime will verbally or tacitly support Russian aggression, but leave a back door open to the West for a ‘communication corridor’ with the Kremlin. Therefore, China would gain bargaining power between Russia and the West, so to increase her stakes to ask the West to back off from CCP’s prioritised issues, including Hong Kong, Uyghurs, Tibet, and Taiwan, so CCP can buy more time to empower her totalitarian grip.
Russian aggression over Ukraine would further prove that the bipolar era of ‘cold war’ to ‘hot war’ would be back to the main stage of international relations.
Democratic alliance, or the West, considers if Ukraine is an ‘one-off isolated case’ or ‘the first domino’, and to what extend that they should stop this happens further to avoid repeating the historically proven mistake of ‘appeasement’ to Nazi regime. Collective security regimes, such as NATO or US-Japan Security Alliance, is the basic bottom line, Ukraine and Taiwan fall short of it, but next to it.
We oppose war for sure, but peace is hardly earned, and liberal democracy is priceless as it is with price to safeguard.
God bless Ukrainians and those Russians who are with peace, democracy and freedom.
Simon Cheng
Hong Kong pro-democracy Activist
Founder of Hongkongers in Britain
London, United Kingdom
#ukarine #hongkongers #烏克蘭
The Russian regime’s aggression over Ukraine is a severe test to the liberal democracies that to how far our allies would live up to the promise that we cherish and safeguard democracy and people as always.
Many Russian people are with us to protest against invasion, but they are suppressed and silenced.
If our democratic allies do nothing concrete and visible but lip service with ‘we will’ attitude, vulnerable partners of the alliance would be casted in doubt of the security promise and collective duty.
Two possible alternative scenarios may be tabled on CCP-controlled Chinese regime due to this crisis – to them, it is rather an opportunity of leveraging:
1.) CCP regime will enhance the military coordination with Russia to cover each other and share the risk by distracting the focus of the West and it’s democratic alliance. To this end, the Chinese regime may wage a similar military action to the neighbouring areas she aims to for a long time, including Taiwan.
2.) CCP regime will verbally or tacitly support Russian aggression, but leave a back door open to the West for a ‘communication corridor’ with the Kremlin. Therefore, China would gain bargaining power between Russia and the West, so to increase her stakes to ask the West to back off from CCP’s prioritised issues, including Hong Kong, Uyghurs, Tibet, and Taiwan, so CCP can buy more time to empower her totalitarian grip.
Russian aggression over Ukraine would further prove that the bipolar era of ‘cold war’ to ‘hot war’ would be back to the main stage of international relations.
Democratic alliance, or the West, considers if Ukraine is an ‘one-off isolated case’ or ‘the first domino’, and to what extend that they should stop this happens further to avoid repeating the historically proven mistake of ‘appeasement’ to Nazi regime. Collective security regimes, such as NATO or US-Japan Security Alliance, is the basic bottom line, Ukraine and Taiwan fall short of it, but next to it.
We oppose war for sure, but peace is hardly earned, and liberal democracy is priceless as it is with price to safeguard.
God bless Ukrainians and those Russians who are with peace, democracy and freedom.
Simon Cheng
Hong Kong pro-democracy Activist
Founder of Hongkongers in Britain
London, United Kingdom
#ukarine #hongkongers #烏克蘭