Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇷🇺 $100 Oil Is Solving Russia's Budget Problem in Real Time
Russia's oil revenues hit a four-year high in March as Brent prices driven above $100 per barrel by the Iran war delivered an unplanned windfall to the Kremlin. The revenue surge gives Moscow room to accelerate military spending, reverse planned budget cuts, and stabilize the ruble without drawing down its sovereign wealth reserves. The fiscal arithmetic is straightforward: every $10 increase in the oil price adds tens of billions of dollars annually to Russian federal revenues.
This is the strategic paradox of the Iran war for Western policymakers. A conflict designed to degrade one adversary is simultaneously relieving financial pressure on another. Russia had been managing a tightening budget squeeze through late 2025 as sanctions capped prices and drone attacks periodically disrupted export terminals. That squeeze has now effectively been lifted by a war Moscow did not start and is not fighting.
The longer oil remains above $90 to $100 per barrel, the more durable Russia's wartime fiscal position becomes, and the less effective the broader Western sanctions architecture operates as a coercive tool.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Russia's oil revenues hit a four-year high in March as Brent prices driven above $100 per barrel by the Iran war delivered an unplanned windfall to the Kremlin. The revenue surge gives Moscow room to accelerate military spending, reverse planned budget cuts, and stabilize the ruble without drawing down its sovereign wealth reserves. The fiscal arithmetic is straightforward: every $10 increase in the oil price adds tens of billions of dollars annually to Russian federal revenues.
This is the strategic paradox of the Iran war for Western policymakers. A conflict designed to degrade one adversary is simultaneously relieving financial pressure on another. Russia had been managing a tightening budget squeeze through late 2025 as sanctions capped prices and drone attacks periodically disrupted export terminals. That squeeze has now effectively been lifted by a war Moscow did not start and is not fighting.
The longer oil remains above $90 to $100 per barrel, the more durable Russia's wartime fiscal position becomes, and the less effective the broader Western sanctions architecture operates as a coercive tool.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇦🇪 UAE Redirects Crude Through Fujairah as Hormuz Disruption Reshapes Export Flows
The UAE is accelerating crude exports through its Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, using the port as the primary route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian drone strikes on loading infrastructure. Operators have been restoring loading capacity at Fujairah, which is connected to Abu Dhabi's main oil fields via the 1.5 million barrel-per-day Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. The bypass route was built precisely for this scenario, and it is now being activated at scale.
Fujairah's capacity to absorb diverted volumes is real but not unlimited. The pipeline feeding the terminal was designed as an emergency bypass, not as the UAE's primary export artery, and sustained high-volume throughput at Fujairah will test operational limits. Asian refiners receiving UAE crude are simultaneously adjusting their pricing benchmarks, with buyers increasingly switching from Dubai assessments — now at extreme volatility — to ICE Brent as the reference price for U.S. and alternative crudes.
Fujairah's activation is a critical pressure valve for global supply, but its capacity ceiling means it cannot fully compensate if Hormuz traffic is severely curtailed for a prolonged period.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
The UAE is accelerating crude exports through its Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, using the port as the primary route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian drone strikes on loading infrastructure. Operators have been restoring loading capacity at Fujairah, which is connected to Abu Dhabi's main oil fields via the 1.5 million barrel-per-day Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. The bypass route was built precisely for this scenario, and it is now being activated at scale.
Fujairah's capacity to absorb diverted volumes is real but not unlimited. The pipeline feeding the terminal was designed as an emergency bypass, not as the UAE's primary export artery, and sustained high-volume throughput at Fujairah will test operational limits. Asian refiners receiving UAE crude are simultaneously adjusting their pricing benchmarks, with buyers increasingly switching from Dubai assessments — now at extreme volatility — to ICE Brent as the reference price for U.S. and alternative crudes.
Fujairah's activation is a critical pressure valve for global supply, but its capacity ceiling means it cannot fully compensate if Hormuz traffic is severely curtailed for a prolonged period.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Worldoil
UAE boosts Fujairah oil exports as Hormuz disruption redirects crude flows
The UAE is increasing crude exports from Fujairah as operators restore loading capacity following Iranian drone strikes, using the port as a key route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and sustain global oil flows.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
U.S. Diesel Up 50% as Iran War Breaks the Trucking Industry's Recovery
U.S. diesel prices have surged 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, delivering a devastating blow to an American trucking sector that had been on the verge of a long-awaited cyclical recovery. Independent big-rig operators — who purchase fuel on the spot market rather than through hedged corporate contracts — are absorbing the full force of the price move, with cash flow turning sharply negative for many. Freight rates have not risen fast enough to offset input costs, compressing margins across the industry.
Diesel is the arterial fuel of the physical U.S. economy. When diesel prices spike, the cost increase propagates through every supply chain that moves physical goods — food, manufactured products, construction materials, retail inventory. The trucking industry carries roughly 70% of all freight in the United States. A prolonged slump driven by fuel costs is not a sectoral problem; it is a macroeconomic transmission mechanism that accelerates inflation while simultaneously suppressing economic activity.
If diesel prices remain at elevated levels through the second quarter, the Federal Reserve faces a textbook stagflationary input — rising prices alongside weakening output — that its conventional rate tools are poorly equipped to address.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
U.S. diesel prices have surged 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, delivering a devastating blow to an American trucking sector that had been on the verge of a long-awaited cyclical recovery. Independent big-rig operators — who purchase fuel on the spot market rather than through hedged corporate contracts — are absorbing the full force of the price move, with cash flow turning sharply negative for many. Freight rates have not risen fast enough to offset input costs, compressing margins across the industry.
Diesel is the arterial fuel of the physical U.S. economy. When diesel prices spike, the cost increase propagates through every supply chain that moves physical goods — food, manufactured products, construction materials, retail inventory. The trucking industry carries roughly 70% of all freight in the United States. A prolonged slump driven by fuel costs is not a sectoral problem; it is a macroeconomic transmission mechanism that accelerates inflation while simultaneously suppressing economic activity.
If diesel prices remain at elevated levels through the second quarter, the Federal Reserve faces a textbook stagflationary input — rising prices alongside weakening output — that its conventional rate tools are poorly equipped to address.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Forwarded from Coingraph | News
Forwarded from Coingraph | News
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Niklas Larssen)
✡️❌ 🇵🇸 The New York Police Department and federal authorities disrupted what officials described as a plot by a member of a pro-Israel terrorist organization to assassinate the leader of one of New York’s most active pro-Palestinian protest groups, according to officials and court papers.
Members of the F.B.I. and the Police Department’s Joint Terrorism Task Force notified the activist, Nerdeen Kiswani, and her lawyer late Thursday that an arrest had been made in connection with an imminent attempt on her life, her lawyer and law enforcement officials said.
The man who was arrested, Alexander Heifler, 26, of Hoboken, N.J., was taken into custody after detectives and federal agents searched his apartment and found eight Molotov cocktails.
A police official said Friday that Mr. Heifler was a member of the JDL 613 Brotherhood, which was inspired by the Jewish Defense League, a pro-Israel group designated by the F.B.I. as a terrorist organization. Representatives of the J.D.L. and its offshoot did not immediately reply to messages seeking comment.
Mr. Heifler was charged Friday morning in a two-count criminal complaint with making and possessing the devices and appeared in federal court in Newark hours later. The complaint did not specify a motive for the planned attack, which was laid out in detail. If convicted, Mr. Heifler could face up to 20 years in prison.
The complaint said the plan had been in the works since at least February, when Mr. Heifler discussed building and using Molotov cocktails for what he described as “self-defense” on a group video call that included an undercover detective.
Prosecutors said in the complaint that Mr. Heifler and the undercover detective met in person the next day and then twice more in the weeks that followed, including on Thursday, when they built the eight Molotov cocktails together in Mr. Heifler’s home. He was arrested shortly thereafter.
🔗 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/nyregion/nerdeen-kiswani-assassination-plot.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WVA.TRim.LLOYktAJUBft&smid=url-share
Members of the F.B.I. and the Police Department’s Joint Terrorism Task Force notified the activist, Nerdeen Kiswani, and her lawyer late Thursday that an arrest had been made in connection with an imminent attempt on her life, her lawyer and law enforcement officials said.
The man who was arrested, Alexander Heifler, 26, of Hoboken, N.J., was taken into custody after detectives and federal agents searched his apartment and found eight Molotov cocktails.
A police official said Friday that Mr. Heifler was a member of the JDL 613 Brotherhood, which was inspired by the Jewish Defense League, a pro-Israel group designated by the F.B.I. as a terrorist organization. Representatives of the J.D.L. and its offshoot did not immediately reply to messages seeking comment.
Mr. Heifler was charged Friday morning in a two-count criminal complaint with making and possessing the devices and appeared in federal court in Newark hours later. The complaint did not specify a motive for the planned attack, which was laid out in detail. If convicted, Mr. Heifler could face up to 20 years in prison.
The complaint said the plan had been in the works since at least February, when Mr. Heifler discussed building and using Molotov cocktails for what he described as “self-defense” on a group video call that included an undercover detective.
Prosecutors said in the complaint that Mr. Heifler and the undercover detective met in person the next day and then twice more in the weeks that followed, including on Thursday, when they built the eight Molotov cocktails together in Mr. Heifler’s home. He was arrested shortly thereafter.
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Nytimes
Assassination Plot Targeting N.Y.C. Palestinian Activist Is Disrupted (Gift Article)
Law enforcement officials did not identify a suspect or motive, but told Nerdeen Kiswani, a co-founder of the pro-Palestinian group Within Our Lifetime, that she had been targeted, her lawyer said.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Niklas Larssen)
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I hang out with losers because it makes be feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Niklas Larssen)
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"He didn’t think he would be kissing my ass, he really didn’t…and now he has to be nice to me….he better be nice to me, he’s gotta be.."
Luckily for Trump, the Arab oil monarchs like their status as vassal petty kings rather than have any sovereignty so they will tolerate any and all insults Trump throws at them.
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Niklas Larssen)
Media is too big
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Forwarded from Kurdish Front News (Zanyari)
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Christian population in Al-Suqaylabiyah protesting against the violations done by Joulani supporters and Sunni Arab extremists.
@KurdishFrontNews
@KurdishFrontNews
Forwarded from Kurdish Front News (Zanyari)
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, met with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during a visit to Turkey.
The meeting reportedly focused on investment opportunities, economic cooperation, and Turkey’s financial outlook. Discussions likely included foreign direct investment, infrastructure financing, and collaboration between BlackRock and Turkish institutions.
@KurdishFrontNews
The meeting reportedly focused on investment opportunities, economic cooperation, and Turkey’s financial outlook. Discussions likely included foreign direct investment, infrastructure financing, and collaboration between BlackRock and Turkish institutions.
@KurdishFrontNews
Forwarded from Kurdish Front News (Zanyari)
Some Turkish citizens are skeptical or opposed to the involvement of firms like BlackRock in Turkey.
A major concern is that large global asset managers could gain outsized influence over Turkey’s economy.
BlackRock is often seen as part of a powerful global financial system.
@KurdishFrontNews
A major concern is that large global asset managers could gain outsized influence over Turkey’s economy.
BlackRock is often seen as part of a powerful global financial system.
@KurdishFrontNews
Forwarded from Kurdish Front News (Zanyari)
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Locals in the town of Harak in the Daraa countryside clashed with the so-called Syrian General Security.
@KurdishFrontNews
@KurdishFrontNews
Forwarded from ASIANOMICS
🇨🇳 Scholar Warns ASEAN Against Exploiting US-China Tensions
Chinese political scientist Zheng Yongnian cautioned Southeast Asian nations against leveraging US-China tensions for short-term gains, warning the strategy could backfire. He stated that smaller countries should not assume the United States would back them in such a calculation.
Zheng noted that while it is possible for smaller states to navigate between major powers, doing so requires a high level of finesse. The remarks were made in the context of ongoing trade and geopolitical friction between Washington and Beijing.
Southeast Asian governments have faced growing pressure to position themselves as US-China competition intensifies across trade, security, and technology. Zheng's comments reflect a line of argument from Chinese academics that regional hedging carries significant strategic risk.
#China
@asianomics
Chinese political scientist Zheng Yongnian cautioned Southeast Asian nations against leveraging US-China tensions for short-term gains, warning the strategy could backfire. He stated that smaller countries should not assume the United States would back them in such a calculation.
Zheng noted that while it is possible for smaller states to navigate between major powers, doing so requires a high level of finesse. The remarks were made in the context of ongoing trade and geopolitical friction between Washington and Beijing.
Southeast Asian governments have faced growing pressure to position themselves as US-China competition intensifies across trade, security, and technology. Zheng's comments reflect a line of argument from Chinese academics that regional hedging carries significant strategic risk.
#China
@asianomics
South China Morning Post
Asean countries warned against exploiting US-China tensions for short-term gain
Chinese political scientist says Southeast Asian nations ‘should not assume that the US will back them’ and that strategy could backfire.
Forwarded from ASIANOMICS
🇸🇬🇨🇳 Singapore PM Urges Engagement With China, Japan
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, speaking to reporters after visits to Hainan and Hong Kong, said it is important for Singapore to engage both China and Japan not only bilaterally but also in shaping regional affairs. He described the two countries as important partners for ASEAN, with China its largest trading partner and Japan a top investor.
Wong acknowledged that China and Japan are going through a difficult phase in their relations. Tokyo is set to downgrade ties with Beijing according to a diplomatic report awaiting Japanese government approval in April, and tensions have been building since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November 2025 that any Chinese use of force against Taiwan could justify a military response by Tokyo.
Wong framed Singapore's position as maintaining friendship with all major powers without taking sides, describing this as consistent with ASEAN's broader stance. The remarks followed back-to-back trips to Japan, where Singapore and Japan upgraded their ties to a strategic partnership, and to China, where Wong addressed the Boao Forum for Asia.
#Singapore #China #Japan
@asianomics
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, speaking to reporters after visits to Hainan and Hong Kong, said it is important for Singapore to engage both China and Japan not only bilaterally but also in shaping regional affairs. He described the two countries as important partners for ASEAN, with China its largest trading partner and Japan a top investor.
Wong acknowledged that China and Japan are going through a difficult phase in their relations. Tokyo is set to downgrade ties with Beijing according to a diplomatic report awaiting Japanese government approval in April, and tensions have been building since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November 2025 that any Chinese use of force against Taiwan could justify a military response by Tokyo.
Wong framed Singapore's position as maintaining friendship with all major powers without taking sides, describing this as consistent with ASEAN's broader stance. The remarks followed back-to-back trips to Japan, where Singapore and Japan upgraded their ties to a strategic partnership, and to China, where Wong addressed the Boao Forum for Asia.
#Singapore #China #Japan
@asianomics
Forwarded from ASIANOMICS
🇹🇭🇮🇷 Thailand Secures Iran Deal on Hormuz Transit
Thailand reached an agreement with Iran to allow Thai oil tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on March 28. He stated the arrangement would reduce disruptions to fuel imports and prevent a recurrence of shortages seen earlier in March.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards had effectively curtailed shipping through the strait since a Middle East war began in late February, with commodities shipping falling 95 per cent between March 1 and March 26, according to maritime tracking platform Kpler. Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately stated on March 27 they had turned back three vessels attempting to transit the waterway, describing the route as closed to ships linked to its enemies.
The British naval maritime security agency UKMTO reported 24 commercial vessels, including 11 tankers, had been attacked or reported incidents in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman during March. More than 80 per cent of crude oil and LNG transiting the strait is destined for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
#Thailand #Iran
@asianomics
Thailand reached an agreement with Iran to allow Thai oil tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on March 28. He stated the arrangement would reduce disruptions to fuel imports and prevent a recurrence of shortages seen earlier in March.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards had effectively curtailed shipping through the strait since a Middle East war began in late February, with commodities shipping falling 95 per cent between March 1 and March 26, according to maritime tracking platform Kpler. Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately stated on March 27 they had turned back three vessels attempting to transit the waterway, describing the route as closed to ships linked to its enemies.
The British naval maritime security agency UKMTO reported 24 commercial vessels, including 11 tankers, had been attacked or reported incidents in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman during March. More than 80 per cent of crude oil and LNG transiting the strait is destined for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
#Thailand #Iran
@asianomics
The Straits Times
Thai PM Anutin says reached deal with Iran for vessels to transit Hormuz Strait
He said the development would alleviate concerns over fuel imports. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Forwarded from ASIANOMICS
🇲🇾🇮🇷 Iran Clears Seven Malaysian Ships to Transit
Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan stated on March 28 that seven Malaysian ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz would be permitted to depart. The clearance followed direct calls between Hasan and his Iranian counterpart, and between Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran's government agreed to open a transit window for the tankers, with Hasan indicating departure could occur at any time. A Malaysian cargo vessel carrying fertiliser had already been granted passage separately ahead of the others.
The stranded vessels are owned by Petronas, MISC, Sapura Energy and other companies. Approximately 2,000 commercial ships in total are currently held up in the vicinity of the strait.
#Malaysia #Iran
@asianomics
Malaysia's Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan stated on March 28 that seven Malaysian ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz would be permitted to depart. The clearance followed direct calls between Hasan and his Iranian counterpart, and between Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran's government agreed to open a transit window for the tankers, with Hasan indicating departure could occur at any time. A Malaysian cargo vessel carrying fertiliser had already been granted passage separately ahead of the others.
The stranded vessels are owned by Petronas, MISC, Sapura Energy and other companies. Approximately 2,000 commercial ships in total are currently held up in the vicinity of the strait.
#Malaysia #Iran
@asianomics
Forwarded from ASIANOMICS
🇮🇩 Indonesia Bans Under-16s From Social Media
Indonesia on Saturday began implementing a government regulation approved earlier in March that prohibits children under 16 from accessing digital platforms including YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, X, and Roblox. The measure is intended to limit exposure to pornography, cyberbullying, online scams, and addictive content.
Indonesia's Communication and Digital Affairs Minister Meutya Hafid stated that all digital platforms operating in the country must bring their products and services into compliance with applicable regulations, with no exceptions for any business entity. The regulation is estimated to affect around 70 million children in a country of approximately 280 million people.
Indonesia becomes the first country in Southeast Asia to impose such a ban, following a similar measure introduced by Australia in 2024. Implementation will proceed gradually until all platforms comply.
#Indonesia
@asianomics
Indonesia on Saturday began implementing a government regulation approved earlier in March that prohibits children under 16 from accessing digital platforms including YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, X, and Roblox. The measure is intended to limit exposure to pornography, cyberbullying, online scams, and addictive content.
Indonesia's Communication and Digital Affairs Minister Meutya Hafid stated that all digital platforms operating in the country must bring their products and services into compliance with applicable regulations, with no exceptions for any business entity. The regulation is estimated to affect around 70 million children in a country of approximately 280 million people.
Indonesia becomes the first country in Southeast Asia to impose such a ban, following a similar measure introduced by Australia in 2024. Implementation will proceed gradually until all platforms comply.
#Indonesia
@asianomics
South China Morning Post
Indonesia begins social media ban for children under 16
Indonesia is now the first country in Southeast Asia to ban children from having accounts on platforms such as YouTube, TikTok and Facebook.
Forwarded from WarTranslated 18+ | Archiving the War in Ukraine
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Orban was booed at his own campaign rally in Győr. He snapped back, accusing the crowd of pushing Ukrainian interests and wanting a pro-Ukraine government that would send Hungarians’ money to Ukraine.