🇷🇺🇪🇬🇮🇷🇹🇷🇦🇪 Egypt, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE are taking advantage of conflicts that have emerged in Sudan and Somalia to advance their own economic, military, and political objectives in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea at the expense of civilian and US interests.

Iran, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates are backing various sides in Sudan’s civil war to advance their interests in the region, complicating peace talks and exacerbating the violence and resulting humanitarian crisis.

Iran and Russia in particular are providing military supplies in pursuit of Red Sea naval bases that would enable both countries to threaten US economic and military interests in the Red Sea.

Somalia has turned to Egypt and Turkey to help counter a naval base agreement between Ethiopia and the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region. Egypt and Turkey have benefited from this development to advance their own economic, military, and political objectives.

Their involvement has increased the risk of a broader regional conflict and prolonged the crisis to the detriment of US counterterrorism interests in Somalia and the local population.

Shifting regional alliances in the Middle East, have shaped some of the external engagement in the Horn of Africa and changed how Middle East powers are interacting with each other as they continue to compete for influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly at odds, helping to create room for Iran to re-engage with Sudan. Egypt and Turkey are also more aligned on foreign policy issues, which is evident in Somalia.

🔗 Critical Threats