Geopolitics Watch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah announced destroying an IDF "Merkava" tank using an ATGM, setting it ablaze in southern Lebanon's 'Bayada' at 23:45.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi:
Events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis.

As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE.

Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.


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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Authorities have confirmed that law enforcement shot one individual near the White House grounds. It's currently unknown whether or not the suspect is alive. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- The shooter is still alive and has been transferred to hospital.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Intense USAF activity in the West Asia region at the moment with over 27 aircraft currently in the air.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Fox News, citing US officials, reports that the likelihood of resuming combat operations against Iran has increased significantly over the past 24 hours.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ•๐Ÿณ๏ธโ€๐ŸŒˆ โ€” High pizza orders at pizza restaurants near the Pentagon. Freddie's Beach Bar, the closest gay bar to the Pentagon, has less traffic than normal.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US intelligence assesses that the Iranian nuclear program was largely undamaged through the Ramadan war of 2026.

Iran's nuclear breakout time, according to the US estimate, is one year, unchanged since operation Midnight Hammer. The White House claims that the primary target of operation Epic Fury was Iran's conventional forces, which are "leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon".
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Two areas of USAF refueling aircraft activity in the Middle East. Nine tankers are currently flying at refueling altitude above Israel and Jordan, and nine are flying at refueling altitude around the Strait of Hormuz.

Of these tankers, six in Israel/Jordan and seven in the Strait of Hormuz are conducting refueling maneuvers. The biggest specific hotspots are four tankers above northeastern Jordan, three tankers in southern UAE, and two in the Persian Gulf immediately west of Dubai; these groups of tankers are flying very similar refueling maneuvers in the same area of each other, supporting large military aircraft concentrations.


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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- CENTCOM claims that 2 US flagged merchant vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz safely: U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. Americanโ€ฆ
โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ›ฅ - Shipping firm Maersk announces that one of its vessels, the US-flagged vehicle carrier Alliance Fairfax safely transited the Strait of Hormuz under the US protection.

The vessel was trapped in the Persian Gulf since February 28.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Two areas of USAF refueling aircraft activity in the Middle East. Nine tankers are currently flying at refueling altitude above Israel and Jordan, and nine are flying at refueling altitude around the Strait of Hormuz. Of these tankers, six in Israel/Jordanโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” We cannot verify circulating reports of USAF tanker activity above Iraq, reportedly operating with transponders disabled.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Satellite imagery from this morning has identified more than 85 IRGC Navy fast attack craft of various sizes staged in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, just south of Qeshm Island. The total length between the first and the last boat is approximately 22km.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท-CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper claims that 6 Iranian small boats were sunk attempting to strike commercial and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iran's Tasnim News Agency, in response to the US claim of destroying 6-7 IRGC fast attack craft, reports that according to local investigations, US forces instead opened fire on two civilian boats transporting goods from Khasab, Oman, to Iran, resulting in the deaths of five civilians.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” For the first time in a good while, no USAF transport aircrafts have been visibly flying from Europe to the Middle East for the past few hours.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iran's Tasnim News Agency, in response to the US claim of destroying 6-7 IRGC fast attack craft, reports that according to local investigations, US forces instead opened fire on two civilian boats transporting goods from Khasab, Oman, to Iran, resultingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- One of the ships that was reportedly struck by the United States is possibly this small cargo vessel, the "BARI 11186" (EPLP9), which came from Khasab, Oman and stopped about 30km off the coast around the same time of the reported attacks.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- One of the ships that was reportedly struck by the United States is possibly this small cargo vessel, the "BARI 11186" (EPLP9), which came from Khasab, Oman and stopped about 30km off the coast around the same time of the reported attacks. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- The second vessel could possibly be the "RASOL ALLAH 12514" (EPZB9), which also came from Khasab, Oman and has since stopped about 25km off the coast of Oman.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Local FOX/ABC-affiliated media WSVN reports John Andrew Spillman, a U.S. Secret Service agent part of President Trump's perimeter security detail at Trump National Doral Miami, has been arrested and charged with indecent exposure for following a woman while masturbating at a hallway of the sixth floor of DoubleTree by Hilton Grand Hotel, forcing her to flee to her room for her safety. The agent was reportedly off-duty when the incident occured.

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