📖 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Day 2 update for the Russian offensive into Kharkov | Armchair Warlord

🔶️ Thus far Russian troops have advanced into Ukraine to a depth of approximately five kilometers over a fifty-kilometer strip of the border northeast of Kharkov, seizing a dozen villages. By way of comparison, this is more tactical success in 48 hours than Ukraine saw in their entire 2023 offensive, achieved with trivial loss to the Russian Army.

🔶️ Currently Russian troops are attacking south towards Kharkov via Liptsy (marked in purple on the map), with reports that scouts have already penetrated to the town. There's another identifiable attack to seize the town of Volchansk, presumably en route to Velyki Berluki and Kupyansk; Russian troops are reported to have entered the town already.

🔶️ It's likely we're still looking at shaping operations thus far - the Russians have not yet moved to attack west of Kharkov (marked out on the map) nor have they pushed over the border east of Volchansk. Looking at the map it's apparent that the engaged sector thus far is relatively undeveloped, suggesting the Russian command would like to draw the AFU into battle and fix them in the more open countryside between Kharkov and the Seversky Donets reservoir to the east.

🔶️ The Russian force engaged thus far is by all reports relatively small and focused on feeling out the Ukrainian defenses. It occurs to me that we could in fact be looking at the Russian equivalent to an Armored Cavalry Regiment in action, probing ahead of what is presumably a corps-sized element uncoiling out of assembly areas in Belgorod Oblast. In any event the Russians seem to be in no hurry to develop the battle too quickly - the big arrows will come when they come. The Russians have an extraordinary level of drone surveillance and "fire control" over the battlefield right now, and Ukrainian forces caught under their gaze will wither quickly.

🔶️ The Ukrainian command seems to be bizarrely fixated with the battle ongoing at Chasov Yar (an operational sideshow for weeks now) and paralyzed as to how to respond to this attack, although rumors have emerged that they're stripping units out of Kherson to redeploy to Kharkov. Given recent Russian moves to consolidate their control of the Dniper delta and threaten a push back onto the right bank this may be a critical blunder.

We shall have to await further developments as usual.

📎 Armchair Warlord

🇵🇸 🇮🇱 The expanded evacuation zone mapped by the IDF includes parts of Rafah that would seemingly cross Biden's red line, as it includes the large Rafah market area and municipal stadium where the UAE field hospital is located. An UNRWA aid distribution center would also be included.

📎 Jake Godin

⚡️🇵🇸 Yoram Hamo, a staffer at the Israeli National Security Council, has resigned, he was responsible for drawing up strategic affairs at the council, according to Israeli Army Radio.

@medmannews

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 808 (23:00):
Situation on northeastern front:
The four spearheads became tow after Russian Army secured new positions along the border:
- From the left spearhead Russian forces took control over Krasne, Morokhovets & Oliinikove thus reaching the northeastern outskirts of Hlyboke.
- From the right spearhead troops took full control over Hatyshche and combats with Ukrainian Army reached butter factory (50.30053762011697, 36.913513187379124) at Vovchansk.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.28466214773739%2C36.69551047699982&z=11 ]

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Confirmation of Russian control of Gatishche (Kharkov-Volchans'k direction).