🇺🇦🇷🇺🚨‼️ FOOTAGE: A MiG-29 was struck by an Iskander missile in Dnipro, Ukraine, earlier today, which led to a large smoke column reported by residents.

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🇮🇱📰 - The Israeli Broadcasting corporation:

the army's ground operations in the Gaza Strip have ended.

🇮🇱📰 - The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation:

The security establishment informed the political leadership that the time had come for a hostage deal.

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸🇵🇸 - Senior Hamas official Hamad:

None of the contentious issues in the Doha negotiations have been resolved

It is not true what was reported in the Wall Street Journal about Israel's readiness to withdraw from the "Philadelphi" axis.

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - The first case of polio was discovered in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, in a 10-month-old child.

🇮🇱❌🇱🇧 - The final toll of a massacre committed by the Israeli airforce in the Toul-Kfour area (Nabatieh District) was 10 deaths and few more injuries.

At around 1:30 a.m. today, Israeli aircraft airstriked an iron factory where a Syrian family, including a mother, children, and a number of workers, lived .

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri:

Talk about the imminent reaching of a ceasefire agreement is an illusion. What we heard from the mediators indicates major retreats from the July 2 agreement. We have not yet been invited to any additional meetings, and what is being talked about is deceptive impressions.

🇱🇾 Is Libya on the brink of a new civil war?

With two rival governments at either end of the country, ongoing political ruptures and now, fresh military mobilization, there are fears Libya could be heading toward more violence and fighting.

In a statement, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya said it was monitoring "with concern the recent mobilization of forces in various parts of Libya."

The organization, known as UNSMIL, urged "all parties to exercise maximum restraint and avoid any provocative military actions that could be perceived as offensive."

On Thursday, the Delegation of the European Union to Libya expressed similar concerns. 

"The use of force would harm stability in Libya and lead to human suffering. It should be avoided at all cost," it said in a statement. 

Longtime Libya watchers were more direct, suggesting that, after around four years of relative calm in the country, civil war might be about to break out once again.

The warnings came in response to last week's large mobilization of militias affiliated with one of Libya's two rival administrations.

Since 2014, Libya has been split in two, with opposing governments located in the east and west of the country. A UN-backed administration known as the Government of National Unity, or GNU, is based in Tripoli in the west, and its rival, known as the House of Representatives, is based in the east, in Tobruk.

At various times over the last decade, each government has tried — and failed — to wrest control from the other.

The government in eastern Libya is supported by former warlord-turned-politician Khalifa Haftar, who controls various armed groups in his area. It was Haftar's forces that appeared to be moving toward Tripoli late last week. In 2019, Haftar attacked the city but was eventually forced to sign a cease-fire in 2020.

🔗 https://www.dw.com/en/is-libya-on-the-brink-of-a-new-civil-war/a-69963648

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. naval assets in the Middle East — new map

• ~30% of U.S. Navy fleet en route or in theater
• Guided-missile sub USS Georgia left Crete
• ABE CSG days away

Iranian attack against Israel delayed to allow time for a ceasefire deal & will take place at a later date (NYT)

U.S. force posture today in the Middle East is similar to the surge following the October 2023 attack:

Tehran appears to be allowing mediators time to pursue cease-fire talks: NYT

• By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units, according to five Israeli officials.

• Israel now believes the Iranian-led response — already apparently delayed several times — will take place at a later date.

• The officials have cautioned that their assessments are rapidly changing given the fluidity of events. Intelligence has been sparse and changes frequently, and Iran and Hezbollah are known to be constantly assessing the situation.

Supercarrier USS Abraham Lincoln steaming toward the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific, transited the Strait of Malacca & entered the Indian Ocean today, 16 August.

The Wasp ARG is still ripping donuts in the eastern Med, most recently operating northwest of Cyprus.

USS Georgia (SSGN 729) departed Crete, Greece, on/around 15 August.

Ceasefire updates from a senior U.S. official in Doha today on background:

- Put down a final bridging proposal on every issue
- Most constructive 48 hours in many months
- Package is basically there & now in the end game
- Aim to close out this process next week once & for all

U.S. warns of “cataclysmic consequences” should Iran attack Israel.

🧵 Ian Ellis