🇺🇦 ❌️ 🇷🇺 Operational Art of War Analysis on the Kursk Offensive:

🔶️ 1. "This isn't near the WW2 Kursk battlefield. Hoth's pincer is 75 kms away and Model's is 150 kms away.

🔶️ 2. This may be obvious, but the offensive isn't going to seize Kursk. In the map below the gains of the offensive are in yellow. The red dashed lines are potential defensive lines between the border and Kursk.

🔶️ 3. With a frontage of 35km and depth of 3-10 km the offensive likely involves 2-3 brigades. This is significant as recent Ukrainian counter-attacks in the Donbas mostly involved single brigades. Ukraine also made good progress on the first day, but it's wasn't a breakthrough.

🔶️ 4. The Ukrainians advanced on Sudzha, but have halted on the Psel river. They advanced on Korenevo, but are halted on a network of creek ravines and reservoirs near Liubimovka. Given how well the "front line" matches defensive features the Ukrainians are likely done advancing.

🔶️ 5. As to the motive for the offensive? The options are:
- Diverting Russian resources from the Donbas
- A spoiling attack
- Seizing an improved defensive line
- Improving national morale

🔶️ The offensive will force Russia to reroute resources about 350 km NW of Donbas, but Kursk is a major transportation & military infrastructure hub. A diversion attack is possible, but there are better locations for one.

🔶️ A spoiling attack is an attack to disrupt a pending enemy offensive. In this case Ukraine was possibly convinced Russia was about to attack Sumy.

🔶️ This option is more likely if Ukraine withdraws in the next few days and Russia pursues them across the border.

🔶️ The Ukrainians are currently at a better defensive line than the border. However, seizing Tetkino, Glushkovo and the Reka river is a better option. The defensive line is better and the roads are more favorable to a Ukrainian advance.

🔶️ The question of improving national morale is political, which I'm not informed enough to opine upon.

In terms of how events unfold:
1. If Ukraine withdrawals under pressure and Russia stops at the border it was likely a diversionary attack
2. If Russia advances past the border it was likely a spoiling attack
3. If Ukraine fights to hold the current gains it was likely to obtain a better defensive position

Interesting how much you can see just from looking at a map eh?"

📎 Operational Art of War

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- Sky News Arabia citing Jordanian sources

⚡️Zionist strike on a vehicle in the Sidon area of Lebanon

I would like to remind you guys with this statement

— “We are Defending ourselves, not Israel.”

That statement would imply also not allowing Israel to use its air space.

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- Reuters

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