Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ โ€“ The U.S. has officially completed its withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year mission.

All forces retreated to Turkey or Jordan.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - ASBM launch from the Fars Province, Iran.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ According to an unofficial diplomatic message seen by Reuters, the Kremlin warned NATO that isolating the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania, could provoke a nuclear response against the "hotheads in Europe".

The warning comes as three Russian embassies in Europe warn that NATO is escalating tensions with military drills that involve planning against Russian attacks from Kaliningrad.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ โ€“ Canada and the EU will announce an "expansive new partnership" at the end of October during a summit in Montreal, according to a draft joint statement obtained by POLITICO.

The partnership is expected to range from "breaking down digital trade barriers to joint support for Ukraine and investing in fighting wildfires", as well as strengthening supply chains and stockpiling critical resources, among others.

Both Ottawa and Brussels have drawn closer as they deal with a hostile White House, as they intend to create what Ursula von der Leyen called "a tech alliance".


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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ‰๏ธ - Reportedly, all 5 suspects of the RAF Fairford incident are being investigated for links to a foreign actor and not fuel theft as widely speculated recently. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- British Prime Minister Burnham has stated that signs indicate that Iran had a role in the attempted attack on RAF Fairford.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ Prime Minister Netanyahu will hold a phone call with Trump later today.

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€“ The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia conducted 51 air raids and missile strikes against Yemen in the last 24 hours.

The air raids came from aircraft that took off from the Khamis Mushait airbase, and the missile attacks were launched from Najran and Jizan.

Marib, Saada, Hodeidah, Taiz, and Amran were targeted.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ โ€“ Trump confirmed the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraq and called today a "victory for the United States [and Iraq]", and the end of a "very expensive incursion into Hell".

He also praised the Iraqi Prime Minister, al-Zaidi, hoping he will be able to handle things "very well".
Today, I am pleased to announce, that the last American Forces are leaving Iraq!

It has been a long time, with very bad decision-making that got us involved in this quagmire in the first place, but soon, that will be part of History.

This is a Great Day for America and, importantly, we leave with Iraq having a wonderful new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, somebody I supported from the beginning and fully endorsed. He won an Election that he was not expected to win, and did so, in a landslide!

Launched in 2003 under the presidency of George W. Bush, and continued under the Administration of Barack Hussein Obama in 2014, and Sleepy Joe Biden, Operation Inherent Resolve ends in 2026 under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump.

This Day is a victory for the United States, a victory for Iraq, and a decisive victory over ISIS, which has been completely decimated by the Trump Administration, First Term, along with other very bad and dangerous players.

Unlike Afghanistan, where much Military Equipment and everything else was left behind, and 13 Warriors lie dead, with many badly wounded, this orderly departure of Coalition forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the end of a very expensive excursion into Hell.

I set a clear mission, gave our Commanders the tools to finish it, and refused to let a temporary presence become a permanent one. I had a choice to stay or to leave, and felt, without question, that it was time for America to go home!

Prime Minister al-Zaidi, is outstanding, and he will hopefully be able to handle things very well.

We came to fight a caliphate. There is no longer a caliphate. We are going home! President DONALD J. TRUMP


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ Earlier today Trump also lashed out at the conservative outlet Fox News, which is traditionally pro-Republican and pro-Trump, but joined the boycott of the White House Press Pool following Trump's ban on three outlets and has come under fire from the Trump admin since then.

He also claimed, again, to have won the 2020 election.
Why does FoxNews always put Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Jessica Tarlov, and every Democrat on, saying bad things about the Republican Party and, of course, me? I actually think they get more airtime than Pro Republicans.

This is why MAGA, and REAL Patriots, will never like Fox!

They repeat a completely negative narrative, on and on it goes, and then we get a quick retort. Itโ€™s truly amazing that I won all three Elections. The opposition is enormous, but the fight goes on! President DONALD J. TRUMP.


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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Russia continues with its campaign against the Ukrainian power grid.

Today, multiple strikes were reported against electrical towers, substations and power plants across Kyiv, and power outages have been reported in the capital province of Ukraine.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ โ€“ Syria has been removed from the U.S. arms export ban list, or ITAR, the Department of State confirmed Wednesday. U.S. arms sales will now be allowed on a case-by-case basis.

This comes following the removal of the "state sponsor of terrorism" designation on Syria in August, and the easing of economic sanctions on Damascus last year.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ โ€“ An explosion occurred on a gas pipe at the Tishreen power plant in Syria, close to the capital of Damascus, due to unknown reasons.

Tge blast took the Deir Ali, Al-Nasiriyah, and Tishreen power plants out of service, according to Syrian outlet SANA.


The fire is still active and specialized teams are mobilizing to control the flames.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ The U.S. 10 Year Bond Yield is at a 24-year-high of 5.3%, and went close to 5.31% earlier today.

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๐Ÿ“ The rise in bond yields can translate directly into higher interest rates on mortgages and other loans, can depreciate the value of current bonds, and more importantly, the U.S. government will have a harder time servicing its massive ~$40 trillion dollar debt.

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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡นโšก๏ธ- Following the capture of Alamata, ENDF forces continue their advance into southern Tigray at a fairly quick pace with Ethiopian soldiers reportedly capturing the town of Korem over the past day.

โžก๏ธ To the east, ENDF have begun crossing into southern Tigray through the AFAR region from which they have reportedly reached Mehoni, reports of the town being captured are premature.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Netanyahu said it's still "too early" to say who, if someone, is behind the foiled Flydubai hijacking, when asked if he believed that Iran could be behind the attempted attack.

He also said the co-pilot could be taken to the UAE following his detention in Saudi Arabia, where he's currently being held, and that Israel could participate in the investigation.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Trump on the Iran war:

I stated, numerous times, that it would take 4-6 weeks to get rid of THE IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT, and I did it in one night! The rest of the time is just to make sure it stays that way. President DONALD J. TRUMP


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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡นโŒ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Eritrea has severed all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, following what Asmara called "deplorable acts of hostility" by Addis Ababa.

Earlier today, Ethiopia closed the Eritrean embassy in the country and declared most Eritrean diplomats 'persona non-grata', giving them 72 hours to leave the country.

Tensions have been rising between both neighbors as rumors spread that Eritrean units have entered Ethiopian territory from the north and are helping rebel factions, especially the Afar units, in fighting the ELNF.

Eritrea's full statement reads as follows:
The Ethiopian Government issued a Press Statement today announcing the closure of the Eritrean Embassy to Ethiopia as well as declaring ten Eritrean Diplomats, including the Charge d โ€™Affairs and other Eritrean Diplomats accredited to the African Union as โ€œpersona non grataโ€.

To justify these unwarranted acts of hostility, the Ethiopian Government has turned the tables to accuse Eritrea for โ€œdirect and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence against Ethiopiaโ€.

This is astounding indeed.

In reality, it is Ethiopia which has been pursuing an agenda of incessant hostility โ€“ in effect, a publicly pronounced declaration of war โ€“ against Eritrea for three years in pursuit of โ€œthe imperative of acquiring sovereign access to the seaโ€ through the invasion of sovereign Eritrean ports and coastal areas.

In parallel with these aggressive intentions, Ethiopia has gone further to host, train, and provide arms, to an assortment of what it calls โ€œEritrean armed opposition groupsโ€ to stoke internal conflict for โ€œregime changeโ€ in Eritrea.

Throughout these trying times, Eritrea has displayed patience and restraint in the hope of averting a dangerous escalation.

In the current circumstances, however, Eritrea has no option but to reciprocate in kind and severe all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia with all the negative corollaries that this entails.


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#BREAKING
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi offered to allow IAEA inspectors back into the country's battered nuclear plants in exchange for sanctions relief, Bloomberg reported.

It's unknown whether the suggestion has been approved by all echelons of the Iranian military and government, but if so, it could allow for meaningful negotiations between Iran and the U.S. to restart.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€“ The Omani co-pilot that tried to hijack the Flydubai aircraft earlier this week has been transfered to the United Arab Emirates, where the investigation will continue.

Israel will send a delegation "in the coming days" to assist in the investigation, i24 News correspondents reported.


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€“ Earlier today, a senior Saudi and a U.S. official said initial findings point to an attempted terrorist attack that may have had foreign backing, according to NBC News.

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