Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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Geopolitics Watch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿšข โ€“ Iran claims to have targeted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the U.S. bombing three of its vessels earlier today. It looks like Iran will also enact a "tanker-for-tanker" policy. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The IRGC published footage of the targeting of vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without authorization using "Rezvan" OWA.
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ’ฅ - 2 S8000 Cruise Missiles are enroute to Kyiv Oblast.
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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ”ด - Air Raid Alert in Kyiv City.

Banderol Cruise Missiles are currently en-route to the city, which is supposed to be protected by Putin's order of a cease of strikes on the capital.


@GeoPWatch
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Geopolitics Watch
#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ”ด - Air Raid Alert in Kyiv City. Banderol Cruise Missiles are currently en-route to the city, which is supposed to be protected by Putin's order of a cease of strikes on the capital. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - This is substantial, as Witkoff and Kushner are reportedly currently on the way to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy after today's meeting with Putin.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - CENTCOM has announced that M/T KYLO, hit earlier today by U.S. anti-ship missiles, has sunk.

Thanks to the precision and professionalism of American service members, the M/T Kylo sank in the Gulf of Oman today and joined Iranโ€™s navy at the bottom of the sea.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง โ€“ Intense IDF artillery bombardment is ongoing against Nabatiyeh al-Fawqa and Arabsalim, southern Lebanon.

Unconfirmed reports claim the Ghandour Hospital was targeted.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง โ€“ New images confirm the Ghandour Hospital was targeted by the IDF. It appears to have been destroyed or have suffered serious damage.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง โ€“ The IDF said it started striking southern Lebanon about an hour ago, in response to Hezbollah launching to drones against IDF troops operating in the "Security Zone".

@GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท โ€“ Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi held a phone call with his Saudi and Turkish counterparts to discuss "bilateral issues, regional developments, and the latest progress in diplomatic efforts", as well as security in the Strait of Hormuz.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿคก28๐Ÿ‘9๐Ÿ‘Ž3โšก2๐Ÿ˜22โค1๐Ÿ”ฅ1๐Ÿ–•1
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ โ€“ All flights to and from Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, were canceled due to an ash cloud caused by the eruption of the Anak Krakatau volcano.

This same volcano caused a tsunami in 2018 that took the lives of around 430 people.


@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โ€“ The Ryazan refinery was again targeted by Ukrainian drones.

@GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง โ€“ Israeli outlets published footage of what Ynet claims to be an airstrike in Arabsalim, southern Lebanon, which claimed two lives [1], and the aftermath of IDF/IAF strikes on the Ghandour Hospital, in Nabatiyeh al-Fawqa [2].

@GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - The Ansarullah (Houthis) Military forces publish video footage of the accurate targeting of what it claims to be a PLC-commander meetup of MRAPs using a ballistic missile.

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๐Ÿ”ฅ52๐Ÿ˜ฑ7โค5๐Ÿ’˜5โšก4๐Ÿคฌ3๐ŸŽ‰3๐Ÿคก2โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ1๐Ÿ˜1
Geopolitics Watch
#NEW โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - The Ansarullah (Houthis) Military forces publish video footage of the accurate targeting of what it claims to be a PLC-commander meetup of MRAPs using a ballistic missile. @GeoPWatch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ - In my assessment it is probable this was a "BADR-1P" Guided-Rocket rather than a claimed Ballistic Missile.

@GeoPWatch
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โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ32๐Ÿ”ฅ7โค4๐Ÿคก3๐Ÿ˜1
Geopolitics Watch
#NEW โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - The Ansarullah (Houthis) Military forces publish video footage of the accurate targeting of what it claims to be a PLC-commander meetup of MRAPs using a ballistic missile. @GeoPWatch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - Ansarullah AlHouthis announce shooting down an RSAF "Wing Loong II" UCAV over 'Maqbana' of Yemen's 'Taiz'.

@GeoPWatch
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โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ24๐Ÿ”ฅ11โค4๐Ÿ˜1
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ—ณ- Exit polling from ARD and ZDF indicates a major victory for the right-wing AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, with ZDF projecting the party at approximately 44% of the vote.

โ–ถ๏ธ The SPD is projected at around 8%, while Die Linke stands at approximately 9%. The Greens and BSW are hovering around the critical 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, while the FDP is projected below the threshold.

โ–ถ๏ธ The result represents a major increase for the AfD, which received 20.8% in the 2021 election. Pre-election polling had already placed the party at roughly 41โ€“42%, substantially ahead of the CDU.

โ–ถ๏ธ Whether the AfD can secure an absolute parliamentary majority will depend heavily on the final results and, crucially, how many smaller parties clear the 5% threshold. A large share of votes going to parties that fail to enter parliament would lower the effective vote share required for a majority of seats.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ—ณ- Exit polling from ARD and ZDF indicates a major victory for the right-wing AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, with ZDF projecting the party at approximately 44% of the vote. โ–ถ๏ธ The SPD is projected at around 8%, while Die Linke stands at approximately 9%. The Greensโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ—ณ- AfD is currently projected as of current counts to secure 41 seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament, more than double the CDUโ€™s 17 seats, according to current election projections.

If confirmed, the result would represent a gain of approximately 23.7 percentage points for the AfD compared with the 2021 state election

@GeoPWatch
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