Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Air raid alerts are sounding in Kyiv again.

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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Former House Representative Cori Bush is again defeated by AIPAC-backed Wesley Bell in the Democratic Primary in Missouri.

Cori Bush is a member of the progressive 'Squad', a Black Lives Matter activist and a vocal supporter of Palestine.

AIPAC and affiliated interest groups spend heavily in this election cycle and successfully defeated several Israel-skeptic politicians, most notably Thomas Massie.


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โ€” ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ/๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท/๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ NEW: An interim deal on the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as tomorrow, Barak Ravid reports for Axios

As part of the deal, which is being negotiated between coastal states Iran and Oman, all inbound traffic would enter the Strait of Hormuz through a northern lane located within Iranโ€™s territorial waters.

All outbound traffic would leave the Strait through Omani waters, โ€˜in coordination with Iranโ€™ (i.e. with explicit permission from IRGC Navy).

The interim deal would last for 60 days, during which no tolls or maritime fees will be collected. Within 30 days, both sides strive to clear mines from the median lane in the Strait of Hormuz, and to reach an eventual permanent settlement.

@Middle_East_Spectator
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Geopolitics Watch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Fox News reports an armed man was arrested at Trump National Golf Course for allegedly monitoring security preparations ahead of President Trumpโ€™s visit. โ–ถ๏ธ An illegally-modified rifle, high-capacity magazines, body armor and a notebook with "concerningโ€ฆ
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€“ President Trump on the arrest of a man who was allegedly planning an assassination attempt against him:

The only thing I get a little solace from is they say 'only consequential presidents' [get these threats]. And I am DEFINITELY consequential."


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€“ Taiwan started today the largest-ever iteration of its 10-day annual "Han Kuang" live-fire military excersise.

โ–ถ๏ธ More than 20,000 troops will be mobilized for drills, which for the first time restricted mobile internet access to test the resilience of civilian communication during air raids.

โ–ถ๏ธ The drills will also focus on decentralized command, giving officers the tools necessary to take the initiative and act independently.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - President Donald Trump:
The situation for Iran will be extremely bad if there is no deal


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - President Donald Trump when asked if there will be a time where there would be no coming back for Iran? :
I have plenty of time.


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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€“ Ukrainian authorities confirmed at least 14 people were killed and 27 injured during last night's round of strikes on Kyiv.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - President Donald Trump:
We are having very good discussions with Iran.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The United States, Iran and Oman are reportedly close to a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington hoping for an announcement on Wednesday.

โ–ถ๏ธ Under the arrangement:
โ€ข Inbound shipping would use a northern lane through Iranian waters.
โ€ข Outbound shipping would use a southern lane through Omani waters, coordinated with Iran.
โ€ข No tolls or transit fees would be imposed during the 60-day period.
โ€ข Naval mines in the central lane would be cleared within 30 days.
โ€ข The central lane would later be used for two-way traffic under a permanent Omanโ€“Iran agreement.

โ–ถ๏ธ The deal is also intended to restore the U.S.โ€“Iran ceasefire and restart nuclear negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly agreed in principle over the weekend, with Iranโ€™s leadership completing the approval process on Tuesday. However, the agreement has not yet been formally announced, and a similar framework collapsed three weeks ago before fighting resumed.


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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - An important statement is expected from the Houthi Forces at 10:00 AM Sana'a time.

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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโ“ - Reports claiming a Houthi attack on Jebel Ali Port in Dubai this morning remain unconfirmed.

Sources on the ground, living in close proximity to the port, reported hearing no explosions, no alerts, and no indications from authorities consistent with an attack.

Meanwhile reports of loud explosions have circulated online, but these have not been independently corroborated and conflict with accounts from sources located near the alleged target.

A thermal hotspot was detected by NASA FIRMS at 01:27 a.m. local time, indicating a fire in the area. However, there is currently no evidence linking the detected fire to Houthi actions.

At this stage, claims of a Houthi strike remain unverified. We await the 10:00 a.m. statement.


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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโ“ - Reports claiming a Houthi attack on Jebel Ali Port in Dubai this morning remain unconfirmed. Sources on the ground, living in close proximity to the port, reported hearing no explosions, no alerts, and no indications from authorities consistent withโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโ“ - An unverified source claiming to work for the Dubai Civil Defence stated that a petrol tank caught fire inside a warehouse/factory in Jebel Ali Industrial Area 1, triggering the explosion of multiple cylinders.

The situation however remains extremely unclear, and confidence for any assessment is currently low. There is not enough verified evidence to determine the cause of the fire or link it to hostile action.

At this stage, no claims can be made.


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Footage showing 11 consecutive Iskander-M ballistic and Zircon hypersonic cruise missile impacts in Kyiv, with no signs of any air defence activity.

Video credit: Intel Cams | OSINT on YouTube
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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
The Ukrainian Air Force confirms that not a single missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defence overnight, due to Ukraine being completely out of Patriot interceptors.
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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - Yemeni forces claim to have targeted the Saudi Oil tanker "Wafa" in the Northern Red Sea, off the coast of Yanbu using ballistic missiles.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - Yemeni forces claim to have targeted the Saudi Oil tanker "Wafa" in the Northern Red Sea, off the coast of Yanbu using ballistic missiles. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - Yemenโ€™s Houthi Forces claims its military operations will continue and intensify, including targeting Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea, with the stated objective of closing maritime access routes and preventing their passage.

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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโ“ - Reports claiming a Houthi attack on Jebel Ali Port in Dubai this morning remain unconfirmed. Sources on the ground, living in close proximity to the port, reported hearing no explosions, no alerts, and no indications from authorities consistent withโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช - As we reported this morning, the fire in Jebel Ali Industrial Area 1 does not appear to have been the result of a Houthi strike.

โ–ถ๏ธ The Houthisโ€™ 10:00 a.m. military statement made no mention of any operation targeting Dubai or Jebel Ali.

โœ”๏ธ Based on the information currently available, we can now assess with high confidence that the Jebel Ali fire was not caused by a Houthi attack. It appears to have been a separate industrial incident.

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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, Asim Munir, are scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - President Donald Trump when asked by a reporter โ€˜Where are we with Iran?โ€™ :

We will know in the next 48 hours.
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