Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - Trump has reportedly issued an ultimatum to Iran:
Hormuz deal today or devastating strikes.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - Bloomberg:
President Trump told reporters yesterday that Iran must fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, August 4, or face renewed U.S. military strikes.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - Explosion at the Shamsabad Industrial City south of Tehran, Iran. Cause of the explosion is unknown. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - The explosion in Shamsabad Industrial Zone has reportedly injured 18 People so far.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ€ผ๏ธ - According to Reuters, the U.S. has used โ€œvirtually allโ€ of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) during the five-month war with Iran.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ - A Russian soldier opened fire on fellow soldiers before turning his weapon on civilians in the village of Khmelnytske, near Sevastopol in Russian occupied Crimea.

According to Russian installed authorities, the soldier killed one other Russian soldier and three civilians, while four others were wounded. The attacker has been detained.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ - A Ukrainian fighter jet pursuing a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, on the 30th of July, toward the Polish border was forced to break off the intercept before entering Polish airspace, due to NATO procedures prohibiting foreign military aircraft from operating inside Alliance airspace without authorization. As a result, the missile crossed into Polish territory, impacting a field near Tarnawa-Kolonia in eastern Poland, where it left a crater approximately 10 metres wide.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‘€โ—๏ธ - Al Arabiya:
An announcement is expected regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within hours or by tomorrow.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - The explosion in Shamsabad Industrial Zone has reportedly injured 18 People so far. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ’ฅ - The source of the fire, which led to the explosion in Shamsabad, appears to be visible in this footage.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโ€ผ๏ธ - A Russian paratrooper performing during the Airborne Forces Day celebrations near Moscow died after his parachute failed to deploy, leading to him falling to his death.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ - According to POLITICO and the Financial Times, Ukraineโ€™s long-range strike campaign has reportedly knocked out 40% of Russiaโ€™s primary oil refining capacity, contributing to the countryโ€™s worst fuel shortages in decades.

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆโŒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช - Saudi Arabia is pursuing behind the scenes diplomacy to prevent renewed conflict with Yemenโ€™s Iran-backed Houthis from threatening the Kingdomโ€™s oil infrastructure and wider economy, according to people familiar with the matter.

Riyadh has reportedly held talks with the Houthis through Omani mediators, while continuing to prepare military options should diplomatic efforts fail.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US Secretary of State Rubio:
There's been progress made in talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US Secretary of State Rubio:
Nothing final on Hormuz; hoping an agreement will happen very shortly.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The U.S. and Israel Are Discussing a Land Blockade of Iran

What Does This Mean for Traders?

Washington and Jerusalem are considering the possibility of cutting off Iranโ€™s land trade routes. Trump and Netanyahu also discussed maintaining the blockade and the possibility of launching large-scale strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz is virtually paralyzed. Tensions remain high.

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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€“ A Houthi Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) struck and sank the MSV Faez Noor Awliya, an Indian-flagged tanker, in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

โ–ถ๏ธ Indian and Yemeni authorities confirmed the sinking, and informed that the crew of 14 was rescued and transfered to Mokha port in Yemen.

โ–ถ๏ธ The tanker is the fourth vessel to be struck by the Houthi rebels since the blockade on Saudi ports was announced.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - The Wall Street Journal states that initially, Iran agreed to a proposal by Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz, but then it added new conditions:

- The right to collect transit fees from ships.

- A guarantee that it would not be attacked again.

- An end to the US naval blockade.

- The lifting of oil sanctions.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - According to the Wall Street Journal, senior regional officials have stated that the United States and regional governments have rejected Iran's request to receive transit fees, as demanded by Iran in the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz deal.

Regional governments want a deal that includes assurances that Iran and its proxy groups will not pose a threat to their territories.

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