Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ’ปโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- The hackers, while on the Obama White House account, followed the Popular Mobilization Forces, so it is possible the hackers are actually Iraqi and not Iranian.

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด โ€” Colombia's presidential election results have resulted in a runoff, with two candidates advancing:

โžก๏ธ Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella with 43.73% of the vote, a political outsider running as a hardliner against Colombia's drug cartels and guerrilla organizations, favoring confrontation, constructing megaprisons, and conducting airstrikes against drug infrastructure and poisoning coca crops used to make cocaine, with the support of the United States.
โžก๏ธ Left-wing candidate Ivรกn Cepeda with 40.91% of the vote, a Senator running to continue Colombia's "Total Peace" policy with Colombia's drug cartels and guerrilla organizations, favoring negotiations and non-military settlements with the armed groups.

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด โ€” Colombia's presidential election results have resulted in a runoff, with two candidates advancing: โžก๏ธ Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella with 43.73% of the vote, a political outsider running as a hardliner against Colombia's drug cartels andโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด โ€” Figures on Colombia's left, including the current President Gustavo Petro, are alleging fraud in the election, with some claiming that Ecuador was involved in voter fraud. Cepada is also refusing to recognize the election results, claiming fraud.

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๐Ÿ“ The biggest loser in this election is Colombia's right-wing conservative establishment. Their candidate is not going to win, and in fact received a minimal 6.84%.

Given last elections' victory of the left and this elections' contest between the left and far-right, it is clear that Colombia's conservative establishment, which has governed the country for most of its history, is on its way out.


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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด โ€” President Milei has congratulated presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella for winning the most votes in Colombia's first round. The statement on X was reposted by Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gideon Sa'ar.

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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด โ€” Conservative ex-presidential candidate Paloma Valencia, having lost in the first round, has endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella. Colombia's right/center-right will likely rally behind the far-right candidate.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” An IRGC ballistic missile launch from Khuzestan towards Ali Al-Salam Base was intercepted.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” CENTCOM announces conducting airstrikes using fighter jets against Iranian radar & drone command sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island, in response to Iranian actions including the interception of a MQ-1 "Predator" UCAV likely operated by the Central Intelligence Agency. CENTCOM claims targeting air defenses, a ground control station, and two suicide drones.

This was conducted sometime this weekend, likely before this ongoing event.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง - The US proposes that Hezbollah stops attacking Israel first and Israel, in return, refrains from further escalation in Beirut, US officials told Reuters.

The officials said gradual deescalation is required before an effective ceasefire. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding talks with Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” An IRGC ballistic missile launch from Khuzestan towards Ali Al-Salam Base was intercepted. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” IRGC announces that, in response to a US airstrike against a telecommunications tower in Sirik Island that took place recently, a retaliatory strike was conducted against the airbase of origin, likely the Ali Al-Salam Air Base.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” An IRGC ballistic missile launch from Khuzestan towards Ali Al-Salam Base was intercepted. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” Footage of the ballistic missile launch from Khuzestan Province, Iran towards Ali Al-Salam Base, Kuwait.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” CENTCOM announces conducting airstrikes using fighter jets against Iranian radar & drone command sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island, in response to Iranian actions including the interception of a MQ-1 "Predator" UCAV likely operated by the Central Intelligenceโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ“ After reviewing it more, the shot down drone in question is probably a MQ-1C "Grey Eagle" belonging to the U.S. Army, and the IRGC just didn't know about it. The IRGC specifically named the MQ-1 "Predator" which is no longer in service, leading us to initially believe the drone was Emirati. The MQ-1s and MQ-1Cs are also distinct systems that serve different doctrines due to being made for different service branches, and we're not sure why CENTCOM isn't distinctly stating the MQ-1C.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ›ฅโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - US official says Central Command has helped 70 ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz in the last three weeks.

The official did not divulge what type of ships transited, which route they took and which direction. The average rate of crossing with CENTCOM assistance is low at ~3 ships per day, just 3% of the prewar rate, but it shows there is appetite for risk taking among shipowners.

The official's claim could not be verified by independent analysts with access to satellite imaging. The alleged crossings were made with transponders off.

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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โ€” President Macron announces that the French Navy intercepted the crude oil tanker TAGOR in international waters at the Atlantic Ocean. This tanker is sanctioned and is part of Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers.

The attached video shows a NH90 NFH helicopter in service with the French Naval Aviation landing on the ship, followed by two French soldiers inside the crude oil tanker.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” President Trump claims that Iran wants to make a deal, and calls on Americans to be patient.
Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But donโ€™t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively โ€œchirping,โ€ at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does!


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” Footage of the ballistic missile launch from Khuzestan Province, Iran towards Ali Al-Salam Base, Kuwait. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ โ€” Iran has published footage of the launch of a Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile towards the Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

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๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Over the past ten minutes, two rocket alerts and one drone alert have activated in the Kiryat Shmona area.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ›‘๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ - Pete Hegseth's speech at Shangri La security conference makes zero mention of Taiwan, in an apparent attempt to placate Beijing.

The annual speech by the US Secretary of Defense is the first to evade the Taiwan issue completely in decades. Echoing President Trump, Mr Hegseth hailed ties with Beijing as โ€œbetter than theyโ€™ve been in many yearsโ€. At a summit earlier this month, the US President signaled his willingness to compromise on Taiwan to end the trade war on favorable terms for the US.

Mr Hegseth insisted that the change in rhetoric does not indicate further policy change. โ€œThe only change you might see is how we talk,โ€ he said, adding that the US should speak โ€œsoftly, while carrying a big stick.โ€ Following the Beijing summit, a $14 billion weapon deal for Taiwan has been shelved.

in related news, the US has informed its ally Japan that the delivery of an order of 400 Tomahawk missiles, originally scheduled between 2025 and 2027, could be delayed by up to two years.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Explosions were reported heard in Bandar Abbas around one hour and twenty minutes ago.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Explosions were reported heard in Bandar Abbas around one hour and twenty minutes ago. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Unexploded ordnance being dealt with, there is no attack.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Unexploded ordnance being dealt with, there is no attack. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Unexploded ordnance will be being detonated in Bandar Abbas for the next 72 hours. Any reports of explosions in the area should be assumed to be the controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance.

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