One of the 3 Tu-95MS which was redeploying to Olenya Airbase returned back to Engels-2 Airbase. I think that's what the activity on 4331 kHz was related to.

All in all, these movements are very confusing and unusual, so it is not clear if anything will happen tonight. If anything changes, I will update.

Regarding the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

This new Russian Air Force Commander is really changing things up... I think this is likely related to a psychological campaign and confusing Ukrainian air defence.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are stationed at Olenya Airbase, all of which are most likely equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They are accompanied by 2 IL-78M aerial refuelers, which could suggest that they intend to fly back to Ukrainka Airbase in the near future.

Due to these bombers using new frequencies for the small attack two days ago, they may carry out launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles at unexpected times, possibly during redeployments. The increase in daylight hours has increased the flexibility for these launches to occur. This would help catch Ukrainian air defence and aviation off guard, increasing the overall impact rate.

The other 2 equipped Tu-95MS are at Engels-2 Airbase and Dyagilevo Airbase. The 2 equipped Tu-160M strategic bombers remain at Ukrainka Airbase.