Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
โ—๏ธRussia likely plans to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, between 11pm and 6am.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at OIenya and Engels-2 Airbases. The ones at Engels-2 will likely fly back to Olenya this afternoon ahead of the attack.

2 Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the far east.

The Tu-160s would likely take off at around 9:30pm tonight (around 10 hours from now), while the Tu-95MS would likely take off at around 11:30pm (around 12 hours from now).

In addition to this, the following could be used:

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts, as well as Crimea).
- Iskander-K cruise missiles (from Kursk and Rostov Oblasts).
- Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (from Kursk Oblast).
- Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from Tu-22m3 strategic bombers (from launch lines over Bryansk Oblast)
- Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters at Savasleika Airbase.
- Kalibr cruise missiles from one frigate and one corvette at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

In my opinion, the main target of this attack will be Ukraine's military-industrial complex, and possibly various airbase in Kyiv Oblast and western Ukraine. I personally doubt that major decision-making centres will be targeted, but we will see.
๐Ÿ”ฅ10โค3๐Ÿคก3๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿค”1๐Ÿคฏ1๐Ÿคฌ1
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
According to unconfirmed information, Ukraine has received additional PAC-3 interceptors and missiles for IRIS-T systems, ahead of the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

As I mentioned before, the attack will likely take place tonight, so we will see if this is true or not based on the interception rate and patterns.
๐Ÿ”ฅ11โค4๐Ÿคฏ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if anyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has exited the White House; the Situation Room meeting has likely concluded.
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๐Ÿ–•17๐Ÿ”ฅ6๐Ÿ‘€3โค1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Tasnim News Agency, no final understanding has been reached between Iran and the US, with the outlet describing Trump's post as consistent with his "usual pattern of expressing one-sided and egotistical opinions." โžก๏ธ Tasnim stressedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed that the exchange of messages with the US is ongoing but that the memorandum of understanding has not yet been finalized. Baghaei stated that Iran needs to see whether the lifting of the naval blockade is genuine or merely a media statement.

โžก๏ธHe stressed that Iran acts in accordance with its own national interests rather than American directives and that enemy vessels remain prohibited from crossing the Strait of Hormuz, while commercial ships have been crossing in coordination with Iranian forces.

โžก๏ธ On the future management of the strait, Baghaei stated that this is a matter exclusively between Iran and Oman as the two bordering states. He also confirmed that uranium enrichment and nuclear materials are not being discussed at this stage.
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โค16๐Ÿ–•2
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Repeated cruise missile launches from Russia towards Ukraine. They have came in from multiple oblasts and have been flying in singles. This is separate from the expected combined missile and drone attack later.
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๐Ÿฅฐ18โค2๐Ÿ‘Ž2๐Ÿคฌ2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿคก1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if anyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to IRIB, Trump's alleged agreement text is one-sided, and no agreement has been reached on any of its clauses.
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๐Ÿ”ฅ19โค7๐Ÿ‘5
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to IRIB, Trump's alleged agreement text is one-sided, and no agreement has been reached on any of its clauses.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- IRIB has also stated that Iran has not yet sent its response to the text of the 14-point memorandum to the US.
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๐Ÿ”ฅ14๐Ÿ‘4โค2๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿ†’1
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ- The U.S. Air Force Bombardier E-11A BACN aircraft is once again back over Anbar governorate in southwest Iraq. It is currently circling approximately 180 kilometers north of the area where the first covert Israeli forward operating base was established, above Iraq's International Highway 1.
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๐Ÿ‘€23๐Ÿค”5โค4๐Ÿคฏ2๐Ÿคฌ2๐Ÿ†’1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- IRIB has also stated that Iran has not yet sent its response to the text of the 14-point memorandum to the US.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- The head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament, Ebrahim Azizi:
Trump must know that Iran, as the victor and conqueror of the field, sets the terms:
Criticism for criticism
Credit for credit
Nothing for nothing
Of course, for the matters under negotiation, not his wishes!
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โค22๐Ÿ”ฅ6๐Ÿ‘3๐Ÿ‘3๐Ÿ’ฉ2๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿ–•1๐Ÿฆ„1
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Air defenses have been activated on southern Iran's Qeshm Island; a significant amount of firing was reported, according to local sources.
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โšก22๐Ÿ”ฅ9โค3๐Ÿ‘3๐Ÿ‘Œ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Air defenses have been activated on southern Iran's Qeshm Island; a significant amount of firing was reported, according to local sources.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Mehr News Agency has confirmed our report of air defense activity on Qeshm Island; the reason is currently unknown.
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๐Ÿคฏ21๐Ÿ‘€9๐Ÿ”ฅ4โค2๐Ÿคฉ2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿ‘Œ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Repeated cruise missile launches from Russia towards Ukraine. They have came in from multiple oblasts and have been flying in singles. This is separate from the expected combined missile and drone attack later.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” A couple cruise missiles made impact in Bila Tserkva, Kiev Oblast.

This was supposed to be posted earlier but I forgot to hit send. ๐Ÿ˜ญ
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โค19๐Ÿ˜ญ8๐Ÿคฃ6๐Ÿ‘Ž2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿคฌ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Mehr News Agency has confirmed our report of air defense activity on Qeshm Island; the reason is currently unknown.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Footage of the air defense activity on Qeshm Island.
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๐Ÿคฏ23๐Ÿ”ฅ11โค2๐Ÿ‘Œ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Footage of the air defense activity on Qeshm Island.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Tasnim News Agency reports that the Iranian Army Air Defense Forces detected and destroyed a hostile drone near Qeshm Island in a successful operation. Further details are expected to be announced shortly.
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โค37๐Ÿ”ฅ13๐Ÿ‘3โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ1๐Ÿ˜˜1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has exited the White House; the Situation Room meeting has likely concluded.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to the New York Times, Donald Trump's Situation Room meeting lasted approximately two hours but concluded without a decision on any new deal with Iran, according to a senior administration official.

โžก๏ธ The administration believes it is close to an agreement, though certain matters remain under debate, including the unfreezing of Iranian funds.
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๐Ÿค”24๐Ÿคฃ12๐Ÿ‘€5๐Ÿคฎ4๐Ÿคฏ2โค1๐Ÿคฌ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to the New York Times, Donald Trump's Situation Room meeting lasted approximately two hours but concluded without a decision on any new deal with Iran, according to a senior administration official. โžก๏ธ The administration believesโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Immediately following his Situation Room meeting, Donald Trump began a policy meeting.
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๐Ÿ‘€20๐Ÿคฃ7๐Ÿ”ฅ5โค2๐Ÿค”2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿคฌ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท-The US Treasury Department has sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the Iranian authority responsible for controlling vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority in response to the U.S. Treasury Department placing sanctions against it:
The US Treasury Department recently announced the sanctions on PGSA. PGSA, while condemning this action, considers being sanctioned by a country whose leader is proud of piracy as a sign of its positive performance. You will not achieve control over the Strait of Hormuz if you did not achieve it in the field and diplomacy.

Despite the US's escalating actions in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of โ€‹โ€‹Oman, this organization continues to continuously review and grant passage to non-hostile vessels in order to facilitate traffic. Statistics from the first month of PGSA's activity will be published soon
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๐Ÿ‘28โค9๐Ÿ”ฅ3๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿ’ฏ1๐Ÿ–•1
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Sandcat Tirgris" vehicle using an "Ababil" FPV drone within an IDF site in northern Israel on the 24th of May.
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๐Ÿ”ฅ27โค11๐Ÿฅฐ6๐Ÿคก3๐Ÿฅด3๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿคจ1
Geopolitics Watch
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Sandcat Tirgris" vehicle using an "Ababil" FPV drone within an IDF site in northern Israel on the 24th of May.
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "NAMER"' APC using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 24th of May.
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โค31๐Ÿ‘4๐Ÿฅด4๐Ÿฅฐ3๐Ÿ˜2๐Ÿคจ2๐Ÿคก1๐ŸŽ„1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent announced that the United States did not achieve regime change in Iran, but the U.S. did "change the regime". We did not have regime change, but we changed the regime.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent again declares that the United States did not achieve regime change in Iran but did change the regime.
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๐Ÿคก41๐Ÿคฃ18โค3๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿคฎ1๐Ÿ’ฏ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent again declares that the United States did not achieve regime change in Iran but did change the regime.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent announces that over the coarse of hostilities with Iran, the United States froze Iranian bank accounts and stole around $1B worth of cryptocurrency held by Iranian figures.
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๐Ÿ–•31๐Ÿคก15โค5๐Ÿ’ฉ4๐Ÿฅฐ3๐Ÿคฃ2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿคฎ1๐Ÿ‘Œ1