Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- An informed source told Tasnim News Agency that the memorandum of understanding text has not yet been finalized, dismissing Western media reports claiming to have published details of a final text as inaccurate. The source stressed that any finalization will be officially announced and noted that the text has undergone changes over the past few days.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- Iranian Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf:
1- We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles; in negotiations, we merely make them understand.

2- We have no trust in guarantees or wordsโ€”only actions are the measure. No action will be taken before the other side acts.

3- The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after.
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โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ44โค17๐Ÿ’ฏ11๐Ÿ’ฉ8๐Ÿ”ฅ5๐Ÿ–•2๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿคก1
Geopolitics Watch
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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- The drone that was shot down by the Houthis over the Marib Governorate, east of Sana'a, was a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper UCAV. This is the second time Houthi forces have shot down an American MQ-9 drone above the Marib Governorate in less than 12 days.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke on the phone with his Omani counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi:
In very productive call with FM Badr Al Busaidi, expressed Iran's solidarity with Oman in face of any threat.

We discussed Hormuz and its future administration in line with our sovereign responsibilities and international law.
We welcome consultation with all neighboring states.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- The IDF has issued an evacuation notice for all residents in the southern Lebanese town of Zefta.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of โ€œheading home!โ€ Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as โ€œNuclear Dust,โ€ which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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๐Ÿ–•33๐Ÿคก15๐Ÿ”ฅ6๐Ÿค”3โค2๐Ÿคฃ2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿ’ฏ1๐Ÿ’…1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if anyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Summary: Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. naval blockade will be lifted, allowing ships that had been held up to begin heading towards their destination.

โžก๏ธ Donald Trump outlined the key terms he is demanding in any agreement with Iran. Iran must commit to never possessing a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened for unrestricted shipping in both directions with no tolls, and all remaining sea mines must be removed or detonated.

โžก๏ธ Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, "buried underground" following B-2 bomber strikes, will be excavated jointly by the US and Iran in coordination with the IAEA and destroyed.

โžก๏ธ Trump acknowledged that both the US and China are the only countries with the mechanical capability to carry out such an excavation operation. No money will be exchanged "until further notice," and Trump noted that other less significant issues have also been agreed upon. He concluded by announcing he would be meeting in the Situation Room to make a final determination on the deal.
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๐Ÿ’ฉ39๐Ÿคก6โค4๐Ÿ—ฟ2๐Ÿ’ฏ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Summary: Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. naval blockade will be lifted, allowing ships that had been held up to begin heading towards their destination. โžก๏ธ Donald Trump outlined the key terms he is demanding in any agreement with Iran. Iranโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Axios reports that the memorandum of understanding involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and commits Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program but includes no specific concessions, with U.S. officials saying they have verbal commitments from Iran on nuclear materials.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐโšก๏ธ โ€” Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar.
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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Axios reports that the memorandum of understanding involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and commits Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program but includes no specific concessions, with U.S. officials sayingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fars News Agency, informed sources have dismissed Donald Trump's recent claims about a deal with Iran as "a mix of truth and lies" and an attempt to stage a fake victory. The sources say the agreement text is still in its final stages of ratification in Iran, and no final decision has been made.

โžก๏ธ Fars identified two key distortions in Trump's account: first, that Iran is obliged to open the Strait of Hormuz without fees, something sources say is not in the text, with Iran planning its own arrangements for managing the strait; and second, that Iran will dismantle its nuclear materials, which sources describe as "fundamentally baseless" and absent from the memorandum entirely.

โžก๏ธ Two key clauses Trump reportedly omitted include the immediate payment of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, which must be paid before Iran enters any further negotiations, and a complete ceasefire in Lebanon in line with Hezbollah's position.

โžก๏ธ Iranian officials stressed that any final agreement will be based on Iran's red lines and approached with "complete distrust" of the US, with immediate countermeasures planned in the event of any breach.
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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - During a conference in the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his directive is to increase the occupation of Gaza onto 70% of It's territory, from the current 60%.

Following a comment by an audience member, Netanyahu expressed the will to steadily increase the occupation up to 100% of Gaza.
๐Ÿ“ Transcript [click to expand]:
Netanyahu: So, we are in a process where our power, we can leverage our power in several directions. If there is a need to crush Hezbollah. We are currently striking Hamas, yes. We are now at 60% of the territory of the Strip. You know, we were at 50%. We moved to 60%. My directive is to move to..."

The audience then calls out: "100! 100!"

He chuckles and responds: "Go in order. First of all, 70%. Let's start with that. We are striking them from all directions, and we will handle the rest."
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Geopolitics Watch
#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - During a conference in the Ein Prat Leadership Academy in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his directive is to increase the occupation of Gaza onto 70% of It's territory, from the current 60%. Following aโ€ฆ
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ - Presumably, the IDF is to achieve that goal through the already ongoing and gradual expansion of the yellow line, utilizing artillery fire and bulldozing the areas of advancements whilst avoid direct engagements, but is to do so in a more rapid pace.

This push serves as adding yet more pressure onto Hamas and the AlQassam Brigades, by further displacing the populations and expanding it's "security zones", to force them into
completely disarming and dissolving it's apparatuses, since the designated deadline had already expired.

Moreover, this is paired with the pressure of security collapse through high-ranking assassinations and continuous escalations that destabilize the strip.

Attached [1] is the estimated extent of expansion to occur. Do note that occupying the entire northern sector of Gaza [2] would also increase the extent of control to ~70%.
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๐Ÿคฌ29๐Ÿคฏ3๐Ÿ–•3โค2๐Ÿ‘Ž2๐Ÿ”ฅ1๐Ÿ‘Œ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fars News Agency, informed sources have dismissed Donald Trump's recent claims about a deal with Iran as "a mix of truth and lies" and an attempt to stage a fake victory. The sources say the agreement text is still in its finalโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem:
A well-informed source told me that Trumpโ€™s Truth Social post about lifting the blockade was, in fact, the first condition before moving to the next steps of the understanding.
According to the source, the Iranian side insisted on a formal public announcement first. Trump appears to have framed it as a secondary issue, while Tehran sees it as a key confidence-building measure before entering the more sensitive files.
So far, there has been no direct discussion of the nuclear file itself. The process is expected to move gradually through an MOU, where every step will be matched by a reciprocal step.
The same sources say a ceasefire announcement between Hezbollah and Israel is also expected as part of the broader framework currently taking shape.
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๐Ÿ”ฅ16๐Ÿค”6๐Ÿ‘4๐Ÿ™3โค2๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿ—ฟ1
Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem:A well-informed source told me that Trumpโ€™s Truth Social post about lifting the blockade was, in fact, the first condition before moving to the next steps of the understanding. According to the source, the Iranian sideโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- An Iranian official told Mehr News Agency that disagreements on several issues continue and that Donald Trump's recent post merely reflects his wishes rather than the reality of the negotiations.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- An Iranian official told Mehr News Agency that disagreements on several issues continue and that Donald Trump's recent post merely reflects his wishes rather than the reality of the negotiations.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Tasnim News Agency, no final understanding has been reached between Iran and the US, with the outlet describing Trump's post as consistent with his "usual pattern of expressing one-sided and egotistical opinions."

โžก๏ธ Tasnim stressed that any lifting of the naval blockade would merely mean ending a ceasefire violation that should never have existed in the first place. Claims by Trump and American media regarding the nuclear issue were dismissed as baseless, as no detailed nuclear discussions are taking place at this stage.

โžก๏ธ The outlet also noted that Trump's insistence on withholding Iran's frozen funds only deepens Iranian suspicions about US seriousness, reiterating that the status of frozen assets must be clarified before any initial understanding is reached.
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๐Ÿ‘10๐Ÿ”ฅ6โค4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- TankerTrackers reports that, in recent days, tankers have been loading crude oil and refined products across Iran's coastline and offshore installations. Today, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was observed loading two million barrels of crude oil.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke on the phone with his Omani counterpart, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi: In very productive call with FM Badr Al Busaidi, expressed Iran's solidarity with Oman in face of any threat. We discussed Hormuz andโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a conversation with his Omani counterpart, stated that reaching a final agreement depends on the US abandoning an excessive approach and its changing and contradictory positions. Araghchi reaffirmed that Iran remains serious and steadfast in pursuing its legitimate rights and interests.
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โค19๐Ÿ”ฅ3๐Ÿ–•1
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” BREAKING: The UAE carried out dozens of airstrikes against Iran during the war, including strikes after the ceasefire announcement, in a deeper role than previously known alongside the U.S. and Israel, according to WSJ.

The strikes were coordinated with U.S. and Israeli intelligence support and targeted sites including Qeshm Island, Abu Musa, Bandar Abbas, energy facilities on Lavan Island, and the Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex.

Some attacks targeted Iranian energy infrastructure in retaliation for Iranian strikes on Emirati oil and gas facilities.

The strike on the Asaluyeh Petrochemical Complex, carried out with Israel, triggered international criticism and prompted Washington to ask Israel to stop targeting Iranian energy sites.

The operations also exposed divisions among Gulf states: Saudi Arabia urged the U.S. to pressure the UAE to halt the attacks, warning they risked wider retaliation against regional energy infrastructure and global oil markets.

UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan became frustrated with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier in the war for refusing to join coordinated military action against Iran.
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๐Ÿคฌ24โค10๐Ÿคฏ9๐Ÿ‘3๐Ÿ˜ฑ3๐Ÿ’ฉ3๐Ÿ‘Œ1
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
โ—๏ธRussia likely plans to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, between 11pm and 6am.

6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at OIenya and Engels-2 Airbases. The ones at Engels-2 will likely fly back to Olenya this afternoon ahead of the attack.

2 Tu-160M strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase in the far east.

The Tu-160s would likely take off at around 9:30pm tonight (around 10 hours from now), while the Tu-95MS would likely take off at around 11:30pm (around 12 hours from now).

In addition to this, the following could be used:

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts, as well as Crimea).
- Iskander-K cruise missiles (from Kursk and Rostov Oblasts).
- Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles (from Kursk Oblast).
- Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from Tu-22m3 strategic bombers (from launch lines over Bryansk Oblast)
- Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters at Savasleika Airbase.
- Kalibr cruise missiles from one frigate and one corvette at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

In my opinion, the main target of this attack will be Ukraine's military-industrial complex, and possibly various airbase in Kyiv Oblast and western Ukraine. I personally doubt that major decision-making centres will be targeted, but we will see.
๐Ÿ”ฅ10โค3๐Ÿคก3๐Ÿฅฐ1๐Ÿค”1๐Ÿคฏ1๐Ÿคฌ1
Forwarded from AMK Mapping
According to unconfirmed information, Ukraine has received additional PAC-3 interceptors and missiles for IRIS-T systems, ahead of the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

As I mentioned before, the attack will likely take place tonight, so we will see if this is true or not based on the interception rate and patterns.
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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social:Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if anyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, has exited the White House; the Situation Room meeting has likely concluded.
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