Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- A U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft has squawked 7700 (General Emergency) over central Romania while flying south towards U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility. The aircraft took off from Ramstein Air Base in Westโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ- The aircraft safely returned to Ramstein Airbase in West Germany; why the aircraft declared an in-flight emergency is currently unknown.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a report from CNN, a senior Trump administration official claimed that the deal would commit Iran to giving up its highly enriched uranium, which Trump refers to as "nuclear dust," with the official summarizing the approach as "No dust? No dollars," adding that "this is 'trust but verify' on steroids."

โžก๏ธ An Iranian source told CNN that the strait is "already open" but that coordination with Iranian authorities is required to ensure safe transit, while also stressing that "the most important thing for us is that the war must end for good in the whole Middle East."

โžก๏ธ Trump separately told Netanyahu he supports Israel's right to "maintain freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon," an Israeli official confirmed.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ›ข - Another oil short bet, this time amounting to $920 million was placed 70 minutes before the Axios article reporting that the US and Iran were close to a โ€œmemorandum of understandingโ€ to end the conflict. Brent crude dropped over 10% before recoveringโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ›ข - The rumor about an imminent deal between the US and Iran, originating from US officials, is having the intended effect on the oil market.

Brent crude futures fell $4.71 to $98.83 a barrel, the lowest level in 2 weeks.

Despite the suspected effort from the Trump administration to manipulate the oil market, physical barrels are largely unaffected in price and trades at a large premium ($30-$60) over paper barrels. Nevertheless, large and timely insider bets, coordinated with Axios headlines are still making outsizied gains.

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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ - A coal mine explosion occured at the privately owned Liushenyu mine in Qinyuan county, Shanxi province on Friday, sparking concern of energy disruption in China.

The explosion left at least 82 dead and many more missing and is China's biggest industrial accident since 2009. The search and rescue operation for the missing victims is still ongoing.

Shanxi province accounts for almost a quarter of Chinese coal production. China relies on coal for over 50% of its energy need, mainly electricy generation and steel making. The importance of the coal supply has only increased since the war in Iran disrupted the flow of other hydrocarbons from the Middle East.

The accident prompted fear of nationwide investigation and crackdown on the mining industry. In the Qiyuan county alone, two other mines have been ordered to halt production. Chinese coal future contracts rose 8% as a result.

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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ - Pakistani military leader Asim Munir, the principal mediator between Iran and the US, together with his Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrives in Beijing for consultation with Chinese leaders.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Iran's Speaker of Parliament and head of the negotiating team Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Doha earlier today for talks on the ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, according to a source briefed on the visit cited by Fox News.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been re-elected as Speaker of Iran's Parliament for another year following a vote by parliament members.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Iran's Speaker of Parliament and head of the negotiating team Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Doha earlier today for talks on the ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, according to a source briefed onโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to sources cited by Al-Arabiya, Iran's Ghalibaf and Araghchi are in Doha to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister, with talks focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen funds, as part of ongoing efforts to advance a political settlement.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei speaking about tolls on the Strait of Hormuz:
It is natural that in this process, the services providedโ€”navigation services, in addition to the necessary measures to protect the environment of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Omanโ€”these require the collection of fees. Therefore, these should not be referred to as tolls. Iran and Oman are responsibly working on this path, and we hope to reach a final agreement as soon as possible.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi delivered a message from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi during a meeting in Oman yesterday, where Gharibabadi is leading a diplomatic and legal delegation.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to sources cited by Al-Arabiya, Iran's Ghalibaf and Araghchi are in Doha to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister, with talks focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen funds, as part of ongoing efforts to advance a political settlement.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Mehr News Agency, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdolnaser Hemmati, also traveled to Qatar alongside Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:
Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all โ€” Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before โ€” And nobody wants that! During my discussions on Saturday with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip ErdoฤŸan, of Tรผrkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords. Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Tรผrkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!). It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be. The Abraham Accords have proven to be, for the Countries involved (The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan), a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM, even during this time of Conflict and War, with the current Members never even suggesting leaving, or taking so much as even a pause. The reason for this is that the Abraham Accords have been great for them, and will be even better for everybody, and bring true Power, Strength, and Peace to the Middle East for the first time in 5,000 years. It will be a Document respected like no other that has ever been signed, anywhere in the World. Its level of Importance and Prestige will be unparalleled! It should start with the immediate signing by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and everybody else should follow suit. If they donโ€™t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention. In speaking to numerous of the Great Leaders mentioned above, they would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords. Wow, now that would be something special! This will be the most important Deal that any of these Great, but always in Conflict Countries, will ever sign. Nothing in the past, or in the future, will surpass it. Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and that, if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition. The Middle East would be United, Powerful, and Economically Strong, like perhaps no other area, anywhere in the World! By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all โ€” Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before โ€”โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Summary: Donald Trump stated that Iran negotiations are "proceeding nicely" but warned that without a "great deal," the U.S. would return to military action "bigger and stronger than ever before."

โžก๏ธ Trump also announced that he is formally requesting all countries that participated in Saturday's callโ€”Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, alongside existing members UAE and Bahrainโ€”to "immediately" sign the Abraham Accords as part of any Iran settlement.

โžก๏ธ Trump suggested that even Iran could eventually join, calling it "something special," and warned that countries unwilling to sign would be excluded from the deal, as it would signal "bad intention."
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- According to Mehr News Agency, air defense activity was reported on Qeshm Island, southern Iran, moments ago. The nature of the activity remains unknown, with no official statement yet issued by authorities.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- According to Mehr News Agency, air defense activity was reported on Qeshm Island, southern Iran, moments ago. The nature of the activity remains unknown, with no official statement yet issued by authorities. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf unveiled the new "Arash the Archer" air defense system, successfully using it to shoot down a hostile drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf unveiled the new "Arash the Archer" air defense system, successfully using it to shoot down a hostile drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒโ‰๏ธ- The "Arash the Archer" (Arash-e Kamangir) air defense system is reportedly equipped with "hidden capabilities," with authorities stating that "this is our sign so that no stealth drone can ever penetrate the skies of the Persian Gulf again."

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued an emergency statement urging foreign nationals to leave Kiev, announcing the start of a new and extensive round of strikes on the Ukrainian capital.

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#BREAKING โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of numerous IDF assets within an armored gathering using "Ababil" FPV drones in southern Lebanon's 'Rchaf' across days. On the 8th of May, a "Merkava IV" tank upper-front plate was struck.โ€ฆ
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" Fuel Tank using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Bint Jbeil' on the 14th of May.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" Fuel Tank using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Bint Jbeil' on the 14th of May. @GeoPWatch
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#NEW
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the renewed targeting and utter dismantling of an IDF Logistics, Command and Artillery site in southern Lebanon's 'Bayada', following the first targeting on the 22nd of April.

On the 12th of May, Hezbollah struck the area with a rocket artillery barrage, and a "Merkava IV" using an FPV drone. On the 13th, a "HMMWV" was struck with an FPV drone, and another rocket barrage alongside a swarm of 2 Kamikaze drones were launched. On the 15th, the majority of IDF assets in the site were withdrawn. A camouflaged "Merkava IV" under nettings was struck, alongside an excavator. On the 16th, a "HMMWV" was struck. On the 17th, the final remaining barracks was struck.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all โ€” Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before โ€”โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- According to CNN, Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed that it will only normalize relations with Israel if there is an irreversible pathway to a Palestinian state, with a source stating the kingdom maintains "the same position as always."

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, the total death toll in Lebanon due to IDF attacks since March 2nd has risen to at least 3,185, with at least 9,633 people injured.
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