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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" SIGINT using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's '' on the 19th of May. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Merkava IV(B)" Tank using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 14th of May.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Merkava IV(B)" Tank using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 14th of May. @GeoPWatch
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#BREAKING
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of numerous IDF assets within an armored gathering using "Ababil" FPV drones in southern Lebanon's 'Rchaf' across days.

On the 8th of May, a "Merkava IV" tank upper-front plate was struck. On the 13th, a "HMMWV" was struck. On the 14th, a number of gas cylinders outside a building an IDF force was fortifying in was struck. On the 15th, 2 "HEMTT" fuel tanks, 1 "HMMWV" and 1 "D9" Bulldozer were struck. on the 17th, another building in which an IDF force was fortfying in was struck. On the 19th, a SATCOM device was struck.

On the 21st, an FPV drone conducted surveillance in the attack area, finding that the majority of the forces withdrew, following the attacks. The drone proceeded to target the rear turret of a "Merkava IV" tank.

Noteworthy is the spreading of nettings on buildings by the IDF, in attempt to intercept these FPV drones. Moreover, no Infantry soldiers are in sight, as the IDF has begun avoiding direct exposure to a maximum.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- According to Tasnim News Agency, Iran has pushed back against Israeli news agency i24's reports claiming American officials said Iran would not receive any sanctions relief until it begins transferring its enriched uranium. Iran denies this linkage exists in the current text and refuses to connect the release of frozen assets to the nuclear issue at this stage.

โžก๏ธ Iran insists that a portion of its frozen assets must be released and fully accessible at the very moment any agreement is announced, citing past experiences of US non-compliance. The release of assets in the first step will not be conditional on nuclear materials, and the initial understanding should focus solely on ending the war.

โžก๏ธ Iran warned that if frozen assets are not released as a first step, a red line will have been crossed and there will be no agreement. The memorandum has not been finalized, partly due to U.S. obstruction on the asset release issue, and the possibility of no deal remains.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- According to Tasnim News Agency, Iran has pushed back against Israeli news agency i24's reports claiming American officials said Iran would not receive any sanctions relief until it begins transferring its enriched uranium. Iran denies this linkageโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- An informed source also told Tasnim that Iran holds no optimism toward the US, conducting all exchanges through the Pakistani mediator with deep skepticism.

โžก๏ธ While no final agreement has been reached and challenges remain, the source stressed that even if an initial understanding is achieved, it would not signal any change in Iran's view of America or trust in US commitments.

โžก๏ธ Citing America's poor track record in negotiations, the source warned that Iran will closely monitor US actions following any announcement and will retain its leverage to respond if the US fails to honor its commitments.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on X:
The U.S. stands firmly with the legitimate Government of Lebanon as it works to restore its authority and build a better future for all its people. Hizballah's threats of violence and overthrow will not be allowed to succeed. The era in which a terrorist group held an entire nation hostage is coming to an end.


Marco Rubio's official condemnation of Hezbollah:

The United States condemns in the strongest terms Hizballahโ€™s reckless call to overthrow Lebanonโ€™s democratically elected government.

Hizballah has ignored repeated calls from the legitimate Government of Lebanon to cease its attacks and respect a ceasefire. Instead, it has continued firing on Israeli positions and moving fighters and weapons into southern Lebanon. This is a deliberate campaign to destabilize the country and maintain its power at the expense of the future of the Lebanese people.

The Government of Lebanon is working to deliver recovery, reconstruction, international assistance, and a stable future for its citizens with the full support of the United States. Hizballah, by contrast, is actively trying to drag Lebanon back into chaos and destruction.

The United States stands firmly with the legitimate Government of Lebanon as it works to restore its authority and build a better future for all its people. Hizballahโ€™s threats of violence and overthrow will not be allowed to succeed. The era in which a terrorist group held an entire nation hostage is coming to an end.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- There are 3 KC-46A Pegasus and 2 KC-135R Stratotanker refueling aircraft currently operating in CENTCOM's area of responsibility, with 2 of the KC-46A Pegasus aircraft in the airspace over the Persian Gulf.
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๐Ÿ‘€22๐Ÿคฌ10โค4๐Ÿ’ฉ4๐Ÿ”ฅ2๐Ÿคฏ1
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- There are 3 KC-46A Pegasus and 2 KC-135R Stratotanker refueling aircraft currently operating in CENTCOM's area of responsibility, with 2 of the KC-46A Pegasus aircraft in the airspace over the Persian Gulf.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- There is now also 1 U.S. Air Force Boeing E-3 Sentry Airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft operating over the Persian Gulf.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to the New York Times, the United States and Iran have agreed in principle to a deal that would wind down the war, though final approval from both sides could take days, a senior U.S. official said.

โžก๏ธ The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and commit Iran to disposing of its highly enriched uranium, though how Iran would do so remains under negotiation.

โžก๏ธ The agreement acts as a preliminary framework for future negotiations, not a final settlement. Iran's missile program and uranium enrichment are excluded from this deal, to be discussed later. Nuclear issues will be negotiated within 30 to 60 days post-agreement.

โžก๏ธ If certified, Trump said the U.S. would end its blockade of Iranian ports. The war, which began in late February with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has killed thousands, disrupted global energy markets, and proven broadly unpopular with the American public.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ- Unconfirmed reports of fighter jet activity over Baghdad, Iraq.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- A U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft has squawked 7700 (General Emergency) over central Romania while flying south towards U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility. The aircraft took off from Ramstein Air Base in Westโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ- The aircraft safely returned to Ramstein Airbase in West Germany; why the aircraft declared an in-flight emergency is currently unknown.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a report from CNN, a senior Trump administration official claimed that the deal would commit Iran to giving up its highly enriched uranium, which Trump refers to as "nuclear dust," with the official summarizing the approach as "No dust? No dollars," adding that "this is 'trust but verify' on steroids."

โžก๏ธ An Iranian source told CNN that the strait is "already open" but that coordination with Iranian authorities is required to ensure safe transit, while also stressing that "the most important thing for us is that the war must end for good in the whole Middle East."

โžก๏ธ Trump separately told Netanyahu he supports Israel's right to "maintain freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon," an Israeli official confirmed.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ›ข - Another oil short bet, this time amounting to $920 million was placed 70 minutes before the Axios article reporting that the US and Iran were close to a โ€œmemorandum of understandingโ€ to end the conflict. Brent crude dropped over 10% before recoveringโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ›ข - The rumor about an imminent deal between the US and Iran, originating from US officials, is having the intended effect on the oil market.

Brent crude futures fell $4.71 to $98.83 a barrel, the lowest level in 2 weeks.

Despite the suspected effort from the Trump administration to manipulate the oil market, physical barrels are largely unaffected in price and trades at a large premium ($30-$60) over paper barrels. Nevertheless, large and timely insider bets, coordinated with Axios headlines are still making outsizied gains.

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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ - A coal mine explosion occured at the privately owned Liushenyu mine in Qinyuan county, Shanxi province on Friday, sparking concern of energy disruption in China.

The explosion left at least 82 dead and many more missing and is China's biggest industrial accident since 2009. The search and rescue operation for the missing victims is still ongoing.

Shanxi province accounts for almost a quarter of Chinese coal production. China relies on coal for over 50% of its energy need, mainly electricy generation and steel making. The importance of the coal supply has only increased since the war in Iran disrupted the flow of other hydrocarbons from the Middle East.

The accident prompted fear of nationwide investigation and crackdown on the mining industry. In the Qiyuan county alone, two other mines have been ordered to halt production. Chinese coal future contracts rose 8% as a result.

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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ - Pakistani military leader Asim Munir, the principal mediator between Iran and the US, together with his Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrives in Beijing for consultation with Chinese leaders.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Iran's Speaker of Parliament and head of the negotiating team Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Doha earlier today for talks on the ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, according to a source briefed on the visit cited by Fox News.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been re-elected as Speaker of Iran's Parliament for another year following a vote by parliament members.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- Iran's Speaker of Parliament and head of the negotiating team Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Doha earlier today for talks on the ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, according to a source briefed onโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to sources cited by Al-Arabiya, Iran's Ghalibaf and Araghchi are in Doha to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister, with talks focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen funds, as part of ongoing efforts to advance a political settlement.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei speaking about tolls on the Strait of Hormuz:
It is natural that in this process, the services providedโ€”navigation services, in addition to the necessary measures to protect the environment of the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Omanโ€”these require the collection of fees. Therefore, these should not be referred to as tolls. Iran and Oman are responsibly working on this path, and we hope to reach a final agreement as soon as possible.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ- Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi delivered a message from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi during a meeting in Oman yesterday, where Gharibabadi is leading a diplomatic and legal delegation.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to sources cited by Al-Arabiya, Iran's Ghalibaf and Araghchi are in Doha to meet with Qatar's Prime Minister, with talks focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen funds, as part of ongoing efforts to advance a political settlement.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Mehr News Agency, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdolnaser Hemmati, also traveled to Qatar alongside Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.
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